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JPYUSD

USD/JPY stuck below 150 ahead of Japan CPI reportSoaring government bond benefits continue to dominate the pair's price action. Investors still need to watch out for Japan which will likely rate closer to 150. USD/JPY fell near 148.80, but quickly recovered to around 149.50 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its inflation forecast for fiscal years 2023 and 2024 earlier. On Tuesday, Bloomberg forecast the BoJ's new core CPI for fiscal 2023 could reach 3%, up from 2.5% in July and more than 2% for fiscal 2024. Inflation Forecast higher shows that the BoJ is confident ahead of salary increase negotiations next spring.
Short
by NicoTradingMaster
USDJPY; Zen and the art of economic cycle maintenanceThe Yen and thus, the Bank of Japan, is in a rather precarious position. (Then again, when was the last time they weren't - in a precarious position?? ... .) Admittedly, our Japanese is somewhat rusty lately but nowhere in the monetary manual did we find where it says: "Lending rates must be fixed at <0% or >10%, at all times!" So, when the BoJ hangs it's hat on some arbitrary metric, such as the volatility in the USDJPY in this case, to guide it's policy and a potential departure from the negative interest rates (more so than based on the underlying economic data - CPI, PPI, unemployment, etc.) and then said volatility collapses, almost immediately?! ... One could only speculate on the complex range of emotions, induced in the BoJ's leadership (WTF?!, etc.). So,now what? ... These previously unlikely turn of events suddenly provide a strong bias towards a (top-side) volatility spike, in the event of which a forced monetary intervention by the BoJ in the very near future becomes a virtually foregone conclusion! On an additional note; Given the current US-Japanese rate differentials (as well as other factors) the USDJPY remains the least "over valued" among all the Yen crosses - making it a less than ideal such metric. Try on the CHFJPY or even the EURJPY as an exercise in absurd over valuation, for example. The likes of which have solid, almost identical, precedents in the late 1970 European central bank policies, most ending "in tears" and none more than Switzerland's SNB's, which slid into one of it's deepest depressions by the beginning of the 1980s! This weeks technical picture (including Fridays close) further underlines this, by now much shifted, bias toward a top-side break out, potentially pushing prices well past the key 150.00 level, rather quickly. (E.g., certainly do Not be short the USDJPY, here! - To say the least.) Current Rate Differentials between the Bank of Japan and ... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- - in Basis Points - ("most over valued" ranking) - CHFJPY (Switerland) --- +250 - (#1) - SKJPY (Sweden) --- +375 - AUDJPY (Australia) --- +400 - NOKJPY (Norway) --- +400 - EURJPY (EU) --- +450 - (#5) - CADJPY (Canada) --- +475 - GBPJPY (G. Britain) --- +515 - NZDJPY (N Zealand) --- +525 - USDJPY (US) --- +525 - MXNJPY (Mexico) --- +11.25 - (#4) - ZARJPY (S. Africa) --- +11.75 - (#2) - HUFJPY (Hungary) --- +13.00 - (#3) --------------------------------------------------------------------- p.s. This here is also the new Yen Thread!/b]
by Nemo_Confidat
2
DXY INDEX, READY For a MAJOR BULL-FLAG-BREAKOUT!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about the DXY, U.S.-Dollar Currency Index on the 4-hour timeframe perspective. Within the recent times the DXY has shown up with these main bounces in the range to retest previous resistances. With this occasion I detected further important signs to consider especially as bonds recently trended upward and non-DXY economies seem to move forward with higher interest rates than firstly expected. The unemployment rates for August could support a further strengthening in the DXY especially when the wave breakout is showing up in the underlying forex pairs also. The price-action seems to have reached such a momentum that the reversal is not likely now. The only concern here is for risk-on assets to make a turning into the more bearish direction. Major Trend-Dynamic Developments: When looking at my chart now you can watch there the DXY emerged with this massive ascending-trend-channel in which it bounced several times within the lower boundary and supports the recent uptrend with forming the next new highs that are necessary to hold the trend to the upside. Recently the index then moved forward to form the next important formation within this whole structure which is actually a major bull-flag-formation as it is marked in my chart. Such a formation has the potential to convert into a determining and extended bull-flag-breakout and currently the price-action is already attempting to continue with this final breakout meaning that from there on the DXY INDEX is going to emerge with high volume and form the appropriate wave-extension as it is marked in my chart. Upcoming Perspectives and Underlying Indications: With these bullishly inclined technical indications there are several other important indications which make sure that the DXY is continuing with the expected breakout and aiming for the target-zones that will be active after the breakout. All the non-DXY currencies in the basket seem to move further with the increased interest rate periods, this means that the DXY is strengthened as the opportunity costs of holding DXY increase with higher interest rates in non-DXY baskets. Furthermore, the bonds and treasury bills marked is showing increased high yields to the upside recently which is a main factor for a bullish cause supporting the recent trend dynamics and the expected breakout to settle. Taking this into the perspective, once the breakout has shown up it will activate target-zones marked in my chart and from there on the further determinations need to be measured, especially when the DXY shows up with a strong momentum into the target-zones this can also lead to a trend acceleration with a breakout above the channel. It will be an interesting dynamic to consider in the next times, therefore the DXY is in the dashboard watchlist and we are going to reevaluate and update when important changes emerged. Thank you for watching my analysis. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
TVC:DXY
by VincePrince
22
Yen Falls as Bank of Japan Holds Perfect Trade with US DollarThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble after the Bank of Japan's decision to hold interest rates steady. Meanwhile, the perfect trading scenario has emerged with the US dollar/DXY. It's time to capitalize on this golden opportunity and make some profitable moves! So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to ride the wave of success. The Bank of Japan's Impact: The Bank of Japan's recent decision to maintain its interest rates has sent shockwaves through the currency market. As the yen weakens, it opens up a window of opportunity for traders like you to take advantage of this shift. The central bank's monetary policy has set the stage for potential gains in the US dollar/DXY, making it an ideal time to consider a short yen, long US dollar/DXY position. The Perfect Trade Scenario: As the Japan yen falls, the US dollar/DXY is poised for a remarkable climb. The US dollar has been gaining strength against major currencies, and this trend is expected to continue. By going long on the US dollar/DXY and shorting the yen, you can position yourself to reap substantial rewards. This perfect trade scenario is not one to be missed! Why Now Is the Time: Timing is everything in the world of trading, and this opportunity is no exception. The confluence of the Bank of Japan's decision and the US dollar's strength presents an ideal moment to enter the market. By acting swiftly and decisively, you can maximize your potential profits. Don't let this chance slip away – the time to act is now! Call-to-Action: Short Yen, Long US Dollar/DXY: Are you ready to embark on a profitable trading journey? Join us in seizing this golden opportunity by shorting the yen and going long on the US dollar/DXY. Here's your call-to-action: 1. Analyze the market: Conduct thorough research and analysis to understand the current market conditions and potential risks involved. 2. Develop a trading strategy: Create a well-defined plan that includes entry and exit points, risk management strategies, and profit targets. 3. Execute your trades: Open positions that reflect your trading strategy, shorting the yen and going long on the US dollar/DXY. 4. Monitor and adjust: Keep a close eye on market movements, and be prepared to adjust your trades if necessary. Stay informed and adapt your strategy accordingly. 5. Reap the rewards: As the yen weakens and the US dollar/DXY strengthens, watch your profits soar. Remember to stick to your plan and secure your gains when the time is right. Conclusion: Traders, the time to act is now! With the Japan yen falling and the perfect trade scenario unfolding with the US dollar/DXY, the potential for substantial profits awaits. Embrace this opportunity with enthusiasm and embark on a trading journey that could lead you to financial success. So, gear up, stay positive, and get ready to ride the waves of triumph!
TVC:JXYShort
by bryandowningqln
Who's ready for a FRED 50 Trillion Balance Sheet? I Am. Japan has no completely lost control of their bond yields. Japan has completely lost control the US Yield Curve Control. The FRED paused (as I expected they had no choice). The FRED realizing they need to initiate YCC / QE / Rate Cuts before end of 2023 or we're going to see an economic meltdown. Option 1, let yields raise > mortgages blow up > bank collateral blows up bail out 100 Trillion. Option 2, start YCC / QE / Rate Cuts down > things don't blow up but spend 50 Trillion. What's hilarious is there is ZERO news coverage on this ZERO, the USA setup a YCC facility with the BOJ to patch bond yields yet the JAPANESE currency CANNOT handle it and the BOJ is starting to actually panic / tap out. People waiting for a "country" to enact the third world war, I'll give you a hint they always start when some major financial system breaks. That's this this is where we are at. Japan has a GDP of only 4.941 Trillion, if they initiate more YCC / QE they will start to turn into the Turkish Lira and then mass people are going to panic about US bonds. THERE IS ZERO chance we get to 2025 without a FRED balance sheet of over at least 30 Trillion, buckle up.
TVC:US10Y
by FederalXBT
FRED Are Done Raising Rates -- Raise Rates? Japan Collapses. Japanese Currency Strength is back to 1987 levels Japan is the main source of YCC for the USA buying down bond Yields If USA raises rates any more Japan will be in free fall collapse (hyperinflation) They need to pause at worst start reducing rates. My guess? Money printer is coming back and will come back fast to save the Yen, this is not just a "Asian currency" this is the single weak point for the entire US bond system if the Yen goes the US bond yields go ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Japan cannot tap out and raise rates, Japan cannot ditch the Yen and adopt the US Dollar, Japan is in some serious trouble here. All Japan can do is continue to issue "Stimulus Packs" that is making the M3 go parabolic that leads to serious inflation. Now what happens when a country issues unlimited Stimulus Packs and cannot raise interest rates?
TVC:DXY
by FederalXBT
4
Gold Traders Reap Double Return with Yen vs. DollarHave you heard the exciting news? A golden opportunity has emerged in the world of trading, where gold enthusiasts can now reap double returns by exploring the potential of the Japanese yen against the US dollar. Brace yourselves, as we delve into this thrilling venture that promises to elevate your trading game to new heights! Unleashing the Power of Yen: While gold has always been a reliable investment, it's time to consider the untapped potential of trading gold in the yen. The Japanese yen has shown remarkable strength against the US dollar, creating a perfect storm for traders to maximize their profits. By capitalizing on this unique currency pair, you can unlock a world of opportunities and potentially double your returns. Why Yen for Gold Trading? 1. Diversification: Trading gold in yen allows for diversification, reducing the risks associated with relying solely on the US dollar. This strategy enables traders to spread their investments across different currencies, mitigating potential losses. 2. Yen's Safe-Haven Status: The Japanese yen has long been recognized as a safe-haven currency, particularly during times of economic uncertainty. As gold is often sought after as a safe-haven asset, combining its trading with the yen amplifies the potential for significant returns. 3. Market Volatility: The yen's volatility against the dollar presents an excellent opportunity for traders to capitalize on price fluctuations. This dynamic environment creates a fertile ground for astute traders to make well-timed moves and maximize their gains. Call-to-Action: Embrace the Yen-Gold Duo Today! Are you ready to embark on a golden journey that promises double returns? Don't miss out on the chance to trade gold in yen and seize the potential for greater profits. Here's how you can get started: 1. Educate Yourself: Equip yourself with the knowledge and understanding of the yen's performance against the dollar and the factors influencing gold prices. Stay updated with market trends, news, and expert opinions to make informed trading decisions. 2. Choose a Reliable Trading Platform: Select a reputable trading platform that offers access to the yen-gold trading pair. Ensure the platform provides a user-friendly interface, reliable customer support, and robust security measures to safeguard your investments. 3. Develop a Solid Trading Strategy: Craft a well-defined trading strategy that aligns with your risk appetite and financial goals. Consider factors such as entry and exit points, stop-loss orders, and profit targets to optimize your trading experience. 4. Stay Disciplined: Successful trading requires discipline, patience, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Stick to your strategy, avoid impulsive decisions, and continuously evaluate and adjust your approach as necessary. Conclusion: Dear traders, the world of gold trading has just become even more enticing with the yen's remarkable performance against the dollar. By embracing this unique opportunity, you can unlock the potential for double returns and take your trading journey to new heights. So, don't wait any longer! Equip yourself with knowledge, choose a reliable platform, develop a solid strategy, and embark on this golden voyage today. Remember, the yen is calling, and it's time to answer! Disclaimer: Trading involves risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before engaging in any trading activity.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
DXY Is About To Revert - Peak Strength Index - 63 DXY Possible? The DXY has been in a position like this 3 times in history 1985 | 2001 | 2023 Every time the DXY has had a TSI 4W cross while the Stoch RSI was in the afterburn stage of rising with the Japanese Currency (JPY) either breaking major support or major resistance it has led to a complete rubber band reversal of the DXY. We now have the USDJPY hanging onto to support from 1990s. DXY losing momentum, PMI index reverting. DXY in Burn Zone. TSI showing strength loss. Annual inflation rate in the US 3% Does not matter if you think the SPY is overvalued, the FRED is done raising rates Inflation has collapsed (for now) meaning their next option is to hold / drop rates + initiate stimulus. This will cause a panic reaction and rush back into all assets away from bonds and money market funds. Recession will be avoided for 2024 and many will blame the FRED for "printing money" but the reality is this is going to cause every market to overheat and burn up depending on how fast the DXY reverts. This is where you get the flash backs of 1920s leverage something worse will develop over the next years and create a larger problem. Get the popcorn ready.
TVC:DXYShort
by FederalXBT
Asian Currency Crisis - Part two? Aussie Dollar Collapsing. RU Aussie Dollar looking extremely weak adding it to the list. Japanese Yen extremely weak China Yuan Extremely weak. There's a problem brewing in Asia / Oceania if the FRED does not start lowering rates you're going currencies like the JPY / CNY / AUD potentially lose 30-70% of its value against the United States Dollar. Japan cannot raise rates due to the leverage used by the BOJ to buy US treasuries and Japan Treasuries. China lowering rates will not work as its completely reliant on cheap US Dollars to function. Australia have also pivoted due to them having the highest household debt in the world, Australia relies on China to purchase resources, they cannot raise rates to deal with inflation the system cannot handle it. These could be the first major currencies to enter the point of no return debt to GDP ending up like Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, Lebanon Debt To GDP Ratio's JAPAN - 264% "GOV debt to GDP" AUSTRALIA - 113.60% "House hold Debt" CHINA - 80% "GOV debt to GDP" For people who are unaware once you go past 100% in debt regardless if its Government or household, there has never been a currency in history that has survived paying off its debt and retracing. Currencies failing will make debt cheaper to repay? well the second side of that is CPI / Inflation Japan & Australia cannot seem to get out of. Sanctioning Russia & forcing a new BRICS development has really backfired here.
Short
by FederalXBT
USDJPY | FRED RATE CUT / BOJ / QE to Infinity Emergency Is here. Japanese Yen running the risk of entering Hyperinflation like the Argentine Peso thanks to the USA. JPY Used to purchase US Debt while USA has Inflation problem has caused them to purchase more than expected including the FRED running (System Open Market Account (SOMA) (soft YCC) China cannot get growth due to US higher rates slowing business growth meaning > Bank Of China has to start rate cutting and essentially do extreme QE or China will collapse. Japan will be FORCED to not raise interest rates due to them owning the most US Debt (bonds) on low interest rates. Japan is experiencing spike in inflation and currency devaluation as people are figuring this out. China forced to QE to counter deflation Yuan will collapse. Japan forced to QE to counter inflation Yen will collapse. If Japan raises rates the BOJ & institutions have to offload US bonds collapsing the US Bond market as the interest rates will destroy the carry trade. FRED cannot pause they have no choice to start rate cuts within the next months. If the FRED does not do this Japan's demise will send the US bond market under forcing QE / YCC by the FRED sending the FRED balance sheet to all time highs. If the FRED does not do this China could experience a complete society breakdown. There's a log term H&S on the JPY/USD that was going to eventually be tested leading to a -47% of the JPY currency (they will be forced to QE to locals to deal with currency collapse like Argentina leading to even more devaluation. NIKKEI225 Adjusted for Japan M3 supply showing more and more strength since the 1980s alerting local people are starting to lose faith in the Japanese Yen. This is no longer a "get Inflation lower story" it has started a sovereign debt and sovereign currency crisis. If people are unaware how much power and the FRED has in this situation, this could provoke the start of a new Cold War. What happens when the biggest holders of US debt Japan / China implode? the entire US bond system implodes. Suddenly the countries like El Salvador getting their credit upgraded while the US credit gets downgraded are looking very smart right now. End Game.
by FederalXBT
Yen season is coming or not?Hello Traders We believe that JPY will show us a large move in next few days. First yen(JPY) has a significant economical fundamental data in upcoming week. Second BOJ has mentioned their concerns about Yen value , and probably they will take an action in market. Third EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and USD/JPY are showing similar technical patterns indicating another drop or possible higher low. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by Like, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Short
by FortunaInvestments
🚨USDJPY will fall by Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern🚨USDJPY managed to form a Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern in the 🟡 Price Reversal Zone(PRZ) 🟡. A confirmation sign of point D of the Bearish Gartley Harmonic Pattern can be a Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern . 💡Also, we can see Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks. 🔔I expect USDJPY will FALL to the 🟢 support zone(139.00JPY-137.620JPY) 🟢. 🔅U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
17
XAUUSD : TRADE situation Hi Guys, I hope you are well As I mentioned in the previous analysis, after reaching a very strong support in the range of the green box, the market shot upwards. Now I expect to see the gray box range and then a quick move towards $2000. The analysis is in the high time frame and only shows the way. For trading, you must have your strategy in the short time. SecondChanceCrypto ⏰ 31/JULY/23 ⛔️DYOR Always do your research. If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comments.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Secondchancecrypto
XAUUSD : DAILY ROADMAPHi Guys Hope you well. According to the previous analysis, the price was able to move up from the support zone. According to the chart, I expect such a move. The analysis is in the high time frame and only shows the way. For trading, you must have your strategy in the low time. SecondChanceCrypto ⏰25/JULY/23 ⛔️DYOR Always do your research . If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below.and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comments.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Secondchancecrypto
XAUUSDT DAILY: IMPORTANT AREAHi Guys Hope You well As you can see, we have reached a very important demand area in the daily time. With the price being supported in this area, I expect to be able to grow to the supply area around the price of $2000. The analysis is in the high time frame and only shows the way. For trading, you must have your strategy in the low time. SecondChanceCrypto ⏰5/JULY/23 ⛔️DYOR Always do your research . If you have any questions, you can write them in the comments below.and I will answer them. And please don't forget to support this idea with your likes and comments.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDLong
by Secondchancecrypto
JPYIRR SHORT JPY weakness continues:Strong bearishIran’s currency hits record low amid tensions with the West Depreciation of the rial comes amid boiling tensions with the West and continuing protests in Iran. On Sunday, the United States dollar went past the 450,000-rial mark for the first time on the open market. On Sunday, the central bank said it will soon raise the maximum amount of currency that can be sold to an individual annually from 2,000 euros ($2,176) to 5,000 euros ($5,439) in an apparent effort to show it has no shortage of currency. The cap was introduced after the US unilaterally abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with world powers in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, triggering a new currency crisis in Iran. To combat currency devaluation, Iran’s police force has periodically announced the arrest of dozens of currency speculators in recent months. Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki kept up verbal warnings on Tuesday against the yen's depreciation, saying he would respond appropriately if currency moves became excessive. At the end the interest rates differential between 2 countries are important. Which country offers more interest rates for your money? That currency is the winner
Short
by DaveBrascoFX
5
USDJPY will go UP by Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern🚀USDJPY is moving on 🟢 support zone(139.10 JPY-137.60JPY) 🟢. Also, USDJPY has managed to form an Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern in the support zone. I expect USDJPY to start growing after completing the pullback to the neckline and at least touch the 🎯 target 🎯 of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. 📚Since the Regular Divergence(RD+) between the right and left shoulders is clearly visible, this point adds to the validity of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern. 📚Another sign that increases the validity of the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern is that the momentum of USDJPY approaching the neckline is greater on the right shoulder than on the left shoulder. 🔅U.S.Dollar/Japanese Yen Analyze ( USDJPY ), 4-hour time frame⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
49