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JPYUSD

Updated technical GBPJPY price forecastMost traders are aware of the rout that the USD is carving into the Japanese yen and the Great British pound. Since the beginning of March 2022, the USD has appreciated against the yen by 11%, and 7% against the pound. Naturally, with their respective performances against the USD, the pound has strengthened against the yen since the beginning of March. But, by how much and what is the technical and fundamental perspective of the GBPJPY pair moving forward? GBPJPY Daily perspective Some long candles have begun presenting themselves in the GBPJPY daily chart recently, pushing and pulling this pair across a significant range over each trading session. This week, GBPJPY has swung between 156.30 and 161.80. GBPJPY 2H perspective On a short term view, we might expect some range-bound trading in the GBPJPY. The Average True Range indicator, on a 2-hour chart is showing weak buying and selling pressure. For a GBP bull, a bias for a tight range between 158.00 and 162.00 might be desired. A bear may extend that lower bound down to 155.00 in substitution for 158.00. As of writing, the GPYJPY is trading at 159.200. This level aligns closely to a resistance level from three previous highs going back to October 2021. The GBPJPY blasted through this resistance quite emphatically on March 22, and then slowly trended up to a peak of ~168.00 within a month. Whereupon pessimism in the UK economy set in, as the Bank of England gave warning of a potential recession, and the GBPJPY gave up a good chunk of gains. At the same time, the pound hit a 2-year low against the greenback. Even so, traders are still aware of the ultra-accommodative policy of the Bank of Japan. Thus, any potential dovishness from the Bank of England in response to the fear of recession is unlikely to reach the levels exhibited by the Bank of Japan. This fundamental factor may help to morph the 158.00 level, once a persistent level of a resistance, into a firm level of support moving forward.
by BlackBull_Markets
sell usdjy at 126.05 with 2 tp until 124.05 YEn is in free fall but get less power to go more up even it took 100 pips today i think the target can be 130 but before that need to take a real breath like to 122.5 but i put only 124 to be sure because he is much overbought daily and weekly have ùany space to go down,also investor may wanna take them profit on this trade i go with just 1 lot and did not make stop loss coz i know max target before rejection cant be 130 ,but maybe 127.5 or 128 and if its the case,every 75 pips up more i will add 1 lot coz i have the bamance to can do..and so when he will back down my target can still or change dependt of the volatility i will update my trade in time,i will try also when it will rech target 1 and i will make a stop loss to 125.75 for at least got 30 pips gains in case he pullback up before reaching my target 2.
Short
by corsicasia
2
Will the yen hit 150 against the greenback?The Japanese yen fell to a seven-year low of 125 against the US dollar on Monday as the Bank of Japan continued easing its monetary policy further widening the gap with the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone. But instead of seeing it as a threat to the Japanese economy, the BOJ reiterated that a weaker yen would have positive effects on pushing Japan’s GDP higher. BOJ’s divergence from Fed The US central bank recently raised interest rates for the first time since 2018 and signalled more rate hikes in the coming months to tame rising inflation. The US consumer inflation rate skyrocketed to a four-year high of 7.9% in February, prompting the Fed to take a more hawkish stance despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical uncertainties. Conversely, the BOJ continued to loosen its monetary policy, reiterating that it would maintain interest rates at ultra-low levels to support Japan’s economic recovery and as inflation stays below its 2% target. The central bank also offered to purchase an unlimited amount of government bonds from Monday through Thursday this week at 0.25%. The offer is for debts with maturities of more than five years and up to 10 years. The move is one of the BOJ’s attempts to contain rising bond yields despite US Treasury yields reaching new multi-year highs. Adding pressure to the yen The measure further weighed on the yen on Monday, with economists from ING Bank expecting upside risks to prevail beyond 125. They said "130 is well within reach in the near term unless the bond environment improves.” A depreciation in the Japanese yen would drive up the costs of imports, ultimately hurting households as it would increase the costs of imported goods and other goods for consumption. It also pushed Japan’s core inflation to a two-year high of 0.8% in March, quicker than market forecasts. Preference for a weaker currency While many economies beef up efforts to boost the value of their currencies, Japan has been aiming to devalue its currency to gain a competitive advantage in foreign trade. A weak yen will make Japan-made goods more competitive overseas and increase profits that Japanese companies make in foreign markets. It would also lift services exports and increase net income receipts from abroad when converted into yen. Back in January, the BOJ estimated that a 10% drop in the yen would boost Japan’s gross domestic product by about 1%. In the final months of 2021, Japan’s GDP rose 4.6% year over year, lower than its previous forecast for a 5.4% rise. Fitch Ratings expects Japan’s inflation at 1.8% this year on the back of higher energy prices and yen depreciation. Preventing another 1998 yen volatility As the yen continues to fall against the greenback, the markets are closely watching for a recurrence of a wild rebound that occurred in the USDJPY in 1998 at the height of the Asian financial crisis. At the time, the US dollar fell by almost 15% versus the yen from its previous peak. That slump was preceded by a three-year yen depreciation as Japanese authorities believed the yen was overvalued. Will the yen hit 150 against the greenback? The question of whether the yen will reach 150 versus the US dollar is more of a when as the Fed maintains its hawkish stance and as the BOJ is poised to keep its loose monetary policy setting in the medium term. This would further widen the gap between their policies, sending the yen lower as Japan continues to book current account deficits due to a jump in oil import prices.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by BlackBull_Markets