Japanese Yen's Caution Amid USD/JPY Trends and US PCE DataThe Japanese Yen continues to exhibit relative strength amid hawkish expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Bets on a series of Fed interest rate cuts in 2024 are dampening the USD and weighing on USD/JPY. Bearish speculators are becoming cautious, eagerly awaiting the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index data later this Thursday for fresh market impetus.
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY has shown potential for a recovery below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling caution for trend-following traders. This indicates that daily chart oscillators are deeply entrenched in negative territory but still far from oversold levels. Conversely, this suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains downward, and any meaningful recovery attempts could be viewed as selling opportunities.
Meanwhile, Wednesday saw the USD/JPY touch multi-month lows around the 146.65 region, seemingly defending immediate weakness. Below this level, USD/JPY could swiftly push the downside momentum towards the psychological 146.00 mark. On the flip side, the 147.30-147.35 region may act as an immediate barrier ahead of the high overnight volatility, around the 147.90 area and the 148.00 mark. Any further upward movement may attract new sellers and remains constrained near the strong horizontal support-turned-resistance level at 148.30.
In summary, caution prevails in the face of the Japanese Yen's bullish trend, with the focus shifting to the US PCE data for potential market catalysts. Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias for USD/JPY, with key support and resistance levels influencing the near-term trajectory.
