The Money Multiplier of TradingThere is one tool with trading, which you can accelerate your portfolio, compared to with investing.
I’m talking about Gearing (or leverage).
To wrap our head around this concept, here’s a more relatable life example.
When you buy a house for R1,000,000, it is very similar to trading derivatives. Initially, the homeowner most probably won’t have the full R1,000,000 to buy the house with just one purchase.
Instead, they’ll sign a bond agreement, make a 10% deposit (R100,000), borrow the rest from the bank and be exposed to the full purchase price of the home. This is a similar concept for when you trade with gearing.
Gearing is a tool which allows you to pay a small amount of money (deposit) in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money.
You’ll simply buy a contract of the underlying share, use borrowed money to trade with and be exposed to the full share’s value.
Let’s simplify this with a more relatable life example:
How gearing works with CFDs
Let’s say you want to buy 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd at R50 per share as you believe the share price is going to go up to R60 in the next three months. You’ll need to pay the entire R50,000 to own the full value of the 1,000 shares (R50 X 1,000 shares).
In three months’ time, if the share price hits R60 you’ll then be exposed to R60,000 (1,000 shares X R60 per share).
Note: I’ve excluded trading costs for simplicity purposes throughout this section
If you sold all your shares, you’ll be up R10,000 profit (R60,000 – R50,000). The problem is you had to pay the full R50,000 to be exposed to those 1,000 shares.
When you trade a geared instrument like CFDs, you won’t ever have to worry about paying the full value of a share again.
A CFD is an unlisted over-the-counter financial derivative contract between two parties to exchange the price difference of the opening and closing price of the underlying asset.
Let’s break that down into an easy-to-understand definition.
A CFD (Contract For Difference) is an
Unlisted (You don’t trade through an exchange)
Over The Counter (Via a private dealer or market maker)
Financial derivative contract (Value from the underlying market)
Between two parties (The buyer and seller) to
Exchange the
Price difference of the opening and closing price of the
Underlying asset (Instrument the CFD price is based on)
Let’s use an example of a company called Jimbo’s Group Ltd, who offers the function to trade CFDs.
The initial margin (deposit) requirement is 10% of the share’s value. This means, you’ll pay R5.00 per CFD instead of R50, and you’ll be exposed to the full value of the share.
To calculate the gearing (or leverage ratio) you’ll simply divide what you’ll be exposed to over the initial margin deposit.
Here’s the gearing calculation on a per CFD basis:
Gearing
= (Exposure per share ÷ Initial deposit per CFD)
= (R50 per share ÷ R5.00 per CFD)
= 10 times gearing
This means two things…
#1. For every one Jimbo’s Group Ltd CFD you buy for R5.00 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more (the full value of the share).
#2. For every one cent the share rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents.
To have the exposure of the full 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd, you’ll simply need to buy 1,000 CFDs. This will require a deposit of R5,000 (1,000 CFDs X R5.00 per CFD).
With a 10% margin deposit (R5,000), you’d have the exact same exposure as you’d have with a conventional R50,000 shares’ investment.
Here is the calculation you can use to work out the exposure of the trade.
Overall trade exposure
= (Total initial margin X Gearing)
= (R5,000 X 10 times)
= R50,000
With an initial deposit of R5,000 and with a gearing of 10 times, you’ll be exposed to the full R50,000 worth of shares.
In three months’ if the share price reaches R60, your new overall trade exposure will be R60,000 worth of shares (1,000 shares X R60 per share). If you sold all of your positions, you’d bank a R10,000 gain (R60,000 – R50,000).
But remember, you only deposited R5,000 into your trade and not the full R50,000. This is the beauty of trading geared derivative instruments.
Hope that helps for those who don't really grasp Gearing...
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Jse
4 Sacrifices every trader makesFirst of all, trading is not a short-term proposition to get rich.
Anyone who says otherwise, needs to spend some time thinking about doing before speaking inside a jail cell.
No…
Trading is a lifestyle that you’ll need to adapt and integrate into yours and your family’s financial future.
Whenever you start something new, especially for a financial gain, you’ll need to make some form of sacrifices.
In today’s article we’ll discuss the four sacrifices every successful trader will make.
SACRIFICE #1:
Time
The money is not going to just fall into your lap. You’re going to need to put in the time to work through the process of successful trading.
As a new trader you’ll need to read as many books, websites and forums on how to trade.
This will prepare you for what trading is all about.
Then you’ll need to take time to learn which:
• Markets you wish to trade
• Method you’ll use to get in and out of your trade.
• Money you’ll risk to grow your portfolio
• Mind you’ll need to adapt to avoid any unnecessary emotions from taking over and interfering with the process.
Then finally you’ll need the time to back-test, forward-test and actually trade on a daily or a weekly basis.
This time can range from 5 minutes a week, which is what I follow with the MATI Trader System, to 5 hours a day if you’re more of an aggressive intraday based trader.
No matter what career you pursue, you’ll need to sacrifice the necessary time to learn the ins and outs of it.
SACRIFICE #2:
Money
Another inevitable sacrifice you’ll need to make is to take money out of your savings to trade.
I say savings because you should never risk any money you can’t afford to risk or any money that you use on a monthly basis to finance your life.
Once a month as you get paid, deposit just 5% of your savings into your trading account.
This way you’ll be able to grow your portfolio at a faster and a more sustainable.
The other side of money you’ll risk is of course, with every trade you take.
Most successful traders out there risk around 1%, 2% to 3% per trade, in order to make a 2%, 4% or even a 6% gain on your portfolio.
SACRIFICE #3:
Thrill
You’ll need to sacrifice the THRILL of trading and exchange it for FOCUS.
Trading should be seen as a business rather than playing the lottery once a week.
As much as I have loved trading the MATI Trader System for the last 18 years, I’ve also taken it very seriously.
Before you commit any money into the markets, you’ll need to have a solid watch list, trading system and money management rules to follow methodically.
This way you’ll have a mechanical approach to trading without the thrill, when you bank a profit or without the devastation, anger and disappointment.
Remember that a winning portfolio is not about taking a few trades but the 100s of trades over time.
Make sure you have the focus for when you trade in the week and sacrifice the thrill for on the weekends when the markets are closed.
SACRIFICE #4:
Space
The final sacrifice you’ll need to make is to make space.
Make sure your trading desk is clear of any distracting books, devices and objects that have no aid to your trading.
A cleaner and clearer trading desk will prevent a number of distractions for when you trade which could result in unnecessary stress, anxiety and worry.
Also you’ll most likely need to make space for just one more monitor.
By having two monitors, you can use one for your trading platform to buy, sell and modify trades.
The other monitor will then be used for your charting platform to analyse, assess and seek more trading opportunities.
Are they actually sacrifices?
Coming to the end of the article, I’ve just realised something.
These four ‘sacrifices’ you’ll make as a professional trader – Are they sacrifices or are they just opportunities you can take for trading to be smooth sailing?
Hulamin broken above Ascending Triangle target R3.80BULLISHness on good old Hulamin has struck.
We see the price breakout above the Ascending Triangle as price is also above >200MA
Target 1 - R3.80
Let's see how this one plays out as the price is meandering around the sideways levels. We need a strong catalyst for upside...
Adcorp could crash to R2.00 if this happensDescending Triangle has formed on Adcorp...
We are seeing the price constrict between the apex as it's been forming lower highs.
200 > 21 > 7 - Bearish
Target R2.00 then R1.64
We do need to wait for a break down though... If it breaks up then things will look more rosy for the share
Aveng short potential symmetrical triangle - Target R8.08Symmetrical Triangle has formed on Aveng... With the property prices on the way down with the global crash, we can expect the price to drop further... However, as traders we need to wait for a breakdown first, to confirm...
This could very well break up and we could have a Reversal Bull Symmetrical Triangle.
But right now the bias is bearish with a target at R8.08
JSEMRF heading to 200MA at R1.45Cup and handle formed on Merafe. This is a short /medium term trade.
We can see the gap down is likely and ready to close.
The first price target will be at 200MA to R1.45
We also have the resource sector dominating the JSE All Share Index. AGL, ANG, HAR, EXX, KIO all looking bullish, which will help push up the Ferrochrome price along with the metals.
IMplats long after a extended sideways move Target R259.69Cup and Handle has formed on Implats. The price has broken out and is meandering sideways before the next move up.
Platinum companies as well as the precious metal is setting itself for great upside as investors and instiutions are piling their funds into the metal as a form of safe haven... We are going old school right now where the old ways work better than investing in unstable Cryptos...
More bullish signs 7 > 21 > 200
Target R259.69
Bullish
A Santa Claus Rally for the JSE in 2022? What is expected from a Santa Claus Rally?
The Santa Claus rally, is essentially where we see stock prices locally and globally rise and close off positively by the end of December.
And so, we can expect a rally in December which we can all profit from…
Why December? We aren’t 100% sure but we have some speculations on why the market tends to rally…
#1: Investment managers cut down on their taxes
This is the time when you’ll see investors and investment managers, selling their stocks to lock in tax reductions before the end of the year.
Once they sell their positions, they then buy other stocks and markets that they believe will rally in the next year.
The buying of these stocks, leads to a rise in stock prices which pushes the stock market indices up.
Theory #2: Investors enjoy their bonuses by buying into investments
Investors also like to spend their bonuses on investments like stocks…
And when they buy, demand picks up.
And this leads to higher stock market prices.
Speculation is one thing.
But nothing confirms a Santa Claus Rally more than proof in the charts…
The JSE has gone up 14 out of 19 Decembers!
What you see, is the monthly JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003…
Looking at the chart you can see how each December (Vertical blue line) performed from 2003 up ‘till 2021
Year Gain/Loss
Year Gain/Loss
2003 : 7.39%
2004 : 1.28%
2005 : 6.84%
2006 : 3.90%
2007 : -4.99%
2008 : 0.51%
2009 : 2.62%
2010 : 6.69%
2011 : -3.26%
2012 : 2.72%
2013 : 3.27%
2014 : -0.53%
2015 : -1.15%
2016 : 0.48%
2017 : -1.33%
2018 : 4.63%
2019 : 3.51%
2020 : 3.83%
2021 : 4.66%
So, there’ve been 14 out of 19 Decembers (74% win rate) that have shown positive gains.
And in total, the JSE has accumulated 41.07% gains in all of those Decembers.
This means, you have a higher chance of profiting from buying this Christmas than selling.
And right now, this December the JSE ALSI 40 is already up an insane 14.48% gain.
And I am seeing no signs of a slow down yet…
I guess a Santa Claus rally is more likely than not, but we have had three to four winning years in a row... Things are looking good for now but the month is young...
Do you think we will have a JSE Santa Claus Rally?
Let me know.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Why I LOVE Trading View - Best I've seen in 20 yearsWhether you're new to trading or you’re an advanced chartist – we all have the same expectations when it comes to choosing a charting platform.
It must be online, fast, safe, customizable and user friendly.
And you know what – it should be free!
With the high competition of charting platforms available world-wide, each company must ensure they have free, live streaming, cutting edge, secure and easy to use platforms to offer their customers and clients at the very least – top-notch service.
I’ve used many charting platforms since 2003. From London School of Investments, Amibroker, MetaStock, ProTrader, Cycle Trends, IG Markets, Oanda, MetaTrader, Sword Fish… You name it.
But there is ONE free charting platform, which has become my absolute favourite over the years,
Trading View...
TradingView (est. 2012) is a world leading, cutting-edge FREE online visualisation financial charting platform for beginners up to the most advanced professional traders, with over 10 million subscribers.
The platform has direct access to unlimited live streaming data from stocks, futures, bonds, indices, Forex, commodities, ETFs and even crypto-currencies.
It allows you to customise your watch lists, back test your strategies, share, publish or enjoy live and active trading ideas, signals and tutorials through the platform or directly to your Twitter and Stock Twits feed.
With TradingView you’ll be able to enjoy this free charting phenomena across either your web browser, Android or Apple iOS devices.
It's incredible to have such a thorough and advanced charting platform. It's even more amazing for new traders under 5 years of experience to have this cutting-edge technology platform to learn how to trade and enjoy the trading process...
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
MNP - ShortJSE:MNP is showing all of the signs for a good short move. The stochastic and MACD both turned downwards and the 3 and 15 EMAs have crossed eachother in a downward direction. We are looking to reach a target at the 251 level which coincides nicely with previous significant lows from March this year.
Losses are Just the Costs of TradingLosses are nothing!
Come on.
Don't you pay for food, electricity, taxes.
Don't you run your company with expenses and costs?
Don't you spend every now and then on a vacation, time away and even unpaid leave?
This is life and it should be NO different with trading.
Trading losses are nothing but costs that come with achieving future success.
But... and it's a big but.
Just like you can control whether to spend your ticket on Economy or First Class.
Just like you can choose to go to a 3-star hotel or a 5 star.
Just like you can choose between a chicken dish or a lobster.
So to must you manage your risk with trading.
The learning fees, and the losses you take with trading can all be controlled at a point with obviously your volume, the markets you choose and where you place your stop loss...
Every trade needs to be taken into consideration with high risk management skills.
Don't be scared of trading losses- it comes with the territory as with life.
What do you think? Does this help?
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
Financial trader since 2003
Prosus also long to R1,445.20 and correlates to Naspers ideaCup and Handle also has formed on Prosus with the Moving averages looking strong with 7>21>200
Target R1,445.20.
There is a strong correlation with Naspers which is showing almost identical charts.
The RSI has also broken above the Negative divergence and is in the upward momentum territory >50.
The only concern as I often mention are the gaps in the charts which shows high volatility and potential for Gaps close.
The bias however is bullish.
The BEST Trading IndicatorWith the ever increasing number of indicators, it makes sense that beginner traders’ wish to cut the steep learning curve by trying to find which indicator is the best and the most profitable to choose from.
It’s overwhelming to start trading with so many jargon terms like, the MACD, RSI, Stochastics, ADX, Bollinger Bands and so on…
Luckily, you won’t ever have to worry about any of these indicators.
Here’s why…
The quest to find the perfect trading indicator
There is a big misconception when it comes to learning how to trade.
Most new people start by going onto Google to search for the ‘best trading strategy’ or the ‘best trading indicator’ to speed up their success.
Everybody wants to find that perfect trading indicator that will help them profit 80% to 100% of the time.
Yet, at most, there are only 5% of traders’ out there who are able to make a consistent income with trading.
I have two main reasons on this matter, which I’ve gathered since 2003.
Reason 1:
All indicators are history
With local and international markets such as the stock market, Forex and even with crypto-currencies, there are billions of rands traded every day.
With the ongoing economic, socio and political events taking place, every transaction from either a company, private individual or even a bot is entirely unique and UNEXPECTED.
So which indicator is the best to choose from?
Well before you go and do research on each indicator there is to trade with, let me spare you the time and tell you this…
Every technical indicator and oscillator out there, is based on one thing.
HISTORICAL DATA.
When you add an indicator onto a chart, it can only show one of three things which are either the:
Current momentum.
Current trend direction or the.
Demand and supply based on buying and selling volume.
Not one indicator has any form of predictive qualities. Even with the dawn of Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing, there will most likely never be that one indicator that will be able to predict the future with accuracy and certainty every time.
However, let’s say there is that one Quantum Computer that is able to take every news event, internal and external factor into account. The information assembled and collected, will still be based on past data.
By now you may be feeling like your life has been a lie with all the marketing fluff out there with the 100% win-rate and get rich quick scams, but I assure you there is one legit way to succeed from trading.
Reason 2:
Each element is essential
It doesn’t take just one trading strategy to bank a consistent income.
It doesn’t take just a few rules to follow and,
It doesn’t take a whole lot of money to fund your account to make it as a trader.
No, in actual fact it takes four equally important elements namely:
MARKETS:
You need to find the best markets that are out there to trade and when to trade them.
METHOD:
You need to create or adopt a proven trading strategy that will fit your personality. (Price action with a few patterns is all that's needed to spot probability trades).
MONEY:
You need to have just a couple of money management rules, to follow every time you take a trade.
MIND:
You need to find a way to develop trading self-confidence as well as a strong mindset throughout your career.
This is where so many different trading companies, publications and even education institutions seem to miss the mark.
They either specialise ONLY in psychology, trading analysis or just on money management. Unfortunately, this is one hobby or lifestyle where being an expert in ONE field will not guarantee your success.
TAKE PROFIT Reached Glencore - R120.00 TAKE PROFIT REACHED after two months of holding this trade - Glencore.
There was a super Diamond Formation that told us it was heading to a target of R120.00
It touched beautifully today after the long hold and seems to show more upside to come.
I'm out of this trade for now..
Follow for more Daily TRades and Analyses...
We show both winners and losers as I've been in the markets since 2003 and it all comes with the territory.
Trading 101 - What is a Derivative & why are they revolutionary?Derivatives trading!
What I believe has been the absolute market revolution since shares.
Derivatives might sound complicated and something you would hear from a professor or a know-it-all businessman – but they’re really not.
I am no academic or even remotely one of the smartest guy’s in the world. And if I can grasp the idea and understanding of derivatives, I pretty much guarantee you will too.
Also, if you want to take trading seriously and really make a living with it, you’ll need to understand derivatives trading sometime in your career.
Let’s start at the very beginning.
What is a derivative?
– Collins English Dictionary –
‘A derivative is an investment that depends on the
value of something else’
When it comes to trading, a derivative is a financial contract between two parties whose value is ‘derived’ from another (underlying) asset.
Let’s break that down more simply:
A derivative is a
financial contract (CFDs, Spread Trading, Futures, Forwards, Options &Warrants)
Between two parties (the buyer and seller)
Whose value (the market’s price)
Is derived (depends on or comes from)
Another underlying asset (Share, index, commodity, currency, bond, interest-rate, crypto-currency etc…)
You’ll find that the derivative’s market price mirrors that of the underlying asset’s price.
Why trade using derivatives?
The absolute beauty about trading derivatives is that they are a cheaper and a more profitable way to speculate on the future price movements of a market without buying the asset itself.
You don’t get all the benefits with derivatives
What’s probably important to note with derivatives, is this.
When you buy a derivative’s contract, you’re not actually buying the physical asset. You’re simply making a bet on where you expect the price to go.
EXAMPLE:
When you buy actual shares of a company, means you’ll be able to attend AGMs (Annual General Meetings), Vote and claim dividends from a company.
When you trade derivatives on the underlying share, means you’ll be exposed to the value of the shares and the price movements – and that’s it!
As a trader, when you buy or sell a derivative, you’re not actually investing in the underlying asset but rather just making a bet (speculation) on where you believe the market’s price will head.
This gives you the advantage and opportunity to:
Buy low (go long) a derivative of the underlying asset and sell it at a higher price for a profit or
Sell high (go short) a derivative of the underlying asset and buy it back at a lower price for a profit
Remember when I said it was cheaper and more profitable? You can thank margin
With derivatives, you’ll normally pay a fraction of the price of the total sum and still be exposed to the full value of the asset (share, index, currency etc…)
The fraction of the price paid is called ‘margin’.
EXAMPLE:
To buy and own 10 Anglo shares at R390 per share will cost you R3,900 (R390 per share X 10 shares).
To buy and be exposed to 10 Anglo shares using derivatives, and the margin of the contract is 10% per share, means you’ll only pay R390 (R390 per share X 10% margin per derivative X 10 shares).
I’m sure you can see that with derivatives, you’ll be exposed to more and pay less which will gear up your potential profits or losses versus when trading shares.
This is why we call derivatives, geared financial instruments.
Enjoyed the article comment below and follow for more...
Trade well, Live free
Timon
MATI Trader
Also my socials are below thanks to Trading View.
BACK TO THE FUTURE VS TRADINGI watched the Oscars recently and saw Michael J. Fox receive his humanitarian award. This brought me back to my childhood with the legendary Back to the Futures movie...
Also this year we saw The Back to the Future stars Doc Brown (Christopher Lloyd) and Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) reunited and shared the stage at the New York Comicon 2022.
This is where they reminisced over their iconic roles in the beloved film trilogy.
There were a bunch of mixed emotions but mostly the feeling of nostalgia and childhood memories…
And so, I watched the trilogy and I found it was super interesting to watch a movie when at the time, they were trying to predict the future by making a number of predictions about 2015…
They certainly got a few spot ons such as:
• Smart watches
• Hover boards
• Virtual reality headsets (which we use Quest, PlayStation and even HTC)
• Talking from TV to TV (Instead we use tablets and smart phones, but close enough)
• Donald Trump like figure as president
They also made a few wrong predictions like:
• People wearing their pockets inside out
• Dogs having drones walk them (but we do have drones though)
• Mechanical car fuel attendants
• Pizza hydrators
But overall, there is a very big lesson we can learn from this…
If scientists, businessmen, producers, directors and actors can’t accurately predict the future, nobody can.
And trading the financial markets are similar to “Back to the Future” movies.
It’s unpredictable and normally plays out differently to what we think…
Thing about the future is… When you know what is going to happen and you act according, the future changes…
Let’s say you know what’s going to happen at a certain point in the future. If you act according to what will happen in the future, then your action will change the future.
So, if the future is so unpredictable, how can anyone ever make money from trading?
Simple.
You don’t need to know the future when you trade
When you take a trade, you should never try to predict where the market will go.
Instead, we should base the future predictions and decisions on one word.
Probability.
If the market is moving up, there is a higher chance it will continue to move up. (It’s going up for a reason).
If the market consolidates in a sideways formation and then the price breaks down, there is a higher chance the price will continue to move down.
We say, go with the trend rather than against it… Our job is not to predict every turn and bank a profit from every point move.
Our job is to anticipate a change in the market, wait for confirmation and then act accordingly to follow the MORE likely scenario… You might not get it right 30% to 40% of the time, but you can get it right 50% - 70% of the time during certain market environments…
That’s all I do when I do trades and analyses… I base probabilities on where a market is more likely to go at a certain time…
If I’m wrong, I adjust – rather than deny…
This was a short reminder of why you don’t need to predict the markets to make it as a trader.
Did you enjoy this short piece? Let me know in the comments. It's a passion to help share the knowledge I've gained over the last 20 years as a trader.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader