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UPDATE: Will be get our long awaited breakout yet?Sun International has been a roller coaster of a ride. Been swinging between R38.00 and R42,50. Well, lately we've seen higher lows, and the price keeps touching the top. It's like hitting thin ice. Eventually it'll break up and out. So, let's see what it does. UPDATE: Over the past year, the most notable insider purchase was made by CEO & Executive Director Anthony Leeming, who bought shares valued at R2.2 million, priced around R36.42 each. While insider purchases are generally a positive sign, it's important to note that this significant buy was made at a price considerably lower than the current price of R41.70. This lower purchase price suggests that it may not provide much insight into whether insiders currently see the stock as a good value. During the last year, insiders at Sun International have been buying shares but haven't sold any. The insider transactions for the past year, including purchases by both companies and individuals, are illustrated in the provided chart. For detailed information on the transactions, including specifics on who sold shares, the sale amounts, and the timing, you're encouraged to check the chart directly.
JSE:SUILong
by Timonrosso
Aveng W Formation nearly time for a Breakout at R11.25We see a W Formation, with the price moving and completing the right Double Bottom. Once we get a breakout to the upside, we could see major upside to R11.25. Right now and it's a wait and see but the fundamentals look good. UPDATE: On February 16, 2024, the company announced an expected 45% increase in revenue for the six months ending December 31, 2023. This good news reflects the strong performance of Aveng and its significant progress through its divisions, McConnell Dowell and Moolmans. Following this announcement, Aveng's stock price jumped by nearly 15%, showing that investors are really optimistic about the company's future.
JSE:AEGLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Merafe entered into a sideways Twilight Zone What's nextWe see Merafe has definitely entered into a Rectangle formation. Price is remaining above the 200MA where it could range between the high and low. We definitely need a breakout to the upside, before we see upside. The target potential will be at R1.61 if the price breaks above the Rectangle. Now I wouldn't be that positive and optimistic with this analysis, due to the bad numbers released with ferrochrome. UPDATE: In a strategic move that echoed the prevailing market conditions, Merafe Resources, the South African ferrochrome producer, reported a considerable drop in production for the year. The company's attributable ferrochrome production fell by a substantial 22% from 384 kilotons in the preceding year to 300 kilotons. This planned reduction in output was primarily driven by the high electricity demand during the winter season, characterised by escalated power prices. As a result, the Lion smelter was the only operational facility during this period.
JSE:MRF
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Transaction Capital heading up to target 2 - R11.53Transaction Capital has been the come back duck since October. It's reached the first target of R6.88 in December. It then moved in a consolidation sideways pattern that formed a W Pattern. Since it broke above the neckline, the momentum has been on fire. This is just an update that the price is on its way to the next target at R11.53. UPDATE: Transaction Capital aims to generate between R900 million and R1.25 billion through the sale and issuance of shares in WeBuyCars. Preceding the proposed separation and independent listing of the successful second-hand car dealership. The strategy includes offering new shares to the asset manager Coronation, along with the issuance of additional shares for acquisition by new investors, which will result in a reduction of Transaction Capital's stake in WeBuyCars from 74.9% to a range of 57% to 67%.
JSE:TCPLong
by Timonrosso
Harmony prepping for potential upside - Wait for breakoutHarmony is one of the laggards with Gold. While it is moving in a sideways consolidation range, we are waiting for a confirmed breakout. Once it breaks above, we will definitely get long and hold with a strong Risk to Reward. But right now patience is important, cause it could also fall South quickly. In fact, if you draw a Rectangle formation instead of an Inv H &S, it means that whether it breaks down or up, it could provide a very decent trade signal. My bias is up purely based on being a golden bull this year.
JSE:HARLong
by Timonrosso
Vuvuzela wins again but this time it's a Pan to R4.75!We sent out this update in July 2023, where a Vuvuzela (Broadening Formation) formed. INstead of waiting for a breakout, we were playing with the pattern's range instead. Since it bounced off the Support level it's been on the way to R4.75. And you can see the price almost touched it, before retracing back to the uptrend line. So have we been getting it right? SO far yes. Have we been coining it? HARD NO. Sometimes it doesn't pay to hold because of the daily interest charges that lovely CFDs bestow upon us. And this is a clear example on why it's tough to invest in the CFD market. The target remains to R4.75. And we'll take our pennies and run when it hits. Also, in the interim it seems to be forming a Diamond Formation similar to Gold stocks. So maybe a bigger breakout is imminent. I explained why we can expect gold to rally due to what's happening in the US.
JSE:PANLong
by Timonrosso
AngloGold Ashanti making Diamonds! - New target to R451.84Diamond Formation (Broadening) has formed on ANG. This is a rare formation that resembles a Diamond. It's also a formation between a tug of war between the Bulls and the Bears, until there is a breakout. Now either I'm a Gold bullion, or intution is just telling me we are in for a breakout to the upside. And funny enough the indicators don't agree as they're mixed. Price >20 Price<200MA Target R451.84 FUNDAMENTALS WHY LOWER INTEREST RATES BOOSTS GOLD: Now before I go I wanted to share my fundamental view on why I think gold is in for upside. And it's because of the idea that the Interest Rates will remain down and even be cut up to 125 BPS. But why would lower interest rates lead to a gold run up? Here is some food for thought. Remember when it comes to interest rate cuts it means the following: Stimulates economic growth This makes borrowing cheaper as interest rates are lower. And it encourages more spending and investments by individuals and businesses. Boosts buying from consumers Also, with low interest rates it entices people to buy more. And this is because the cost of loans drops. This leads to them buying more homes, cars, and other goods. There are other elements, but you get the idea. Now, lets consider why lower interest rates could mean the gold price will rally Reason #1: Lower interest rates and a weaker US dollar helps the gold price When interest rates drop, the yield on bonds and savings accounts typically declines. And a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for people with other currencies. It's like gold goes on a global sale, and everyone wants a piece! So, this will drive up its demand and the price. Reason #2: Investors get out of low yielding markets and into gold Remember that when interest rates are high, investors move to high yielding markets. They like to keep their money in the banks, bonds, money market or any other high interest savings accounts. But when interest rates drop, investors don’t make much of their money from these assets. And so, they will look to invest in markets like gold, which will drive the price up. Reason #3: The golden safe-haven will prevail! With interest rate cuts, it normally signals signs of economic uncertainty or weakness. And during these times, investors will often seek out safe-haven assets. Gold is a classic example of a safe haven that investors will look to buy. And this golden attraction will help push the price up. We need to wait for the breakout to act though... Until then, we can observe and share our biases.
JSE:ANGLong
by Timonrosso
#ARI is African rainbow headed for further weakness?I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if we close below R169.00 on a closing basis I think African Rainbow could well trade much lower to a target of approximately R136.00. Not only is it currently losing a very important level of uptrend support but the R169.00 level has been an important pivot of resistance and support previously. Although the Head & Shoulder presented is a bit shady as the horizontal neckline is not at the same level, i do feel like a break of R169 will see the stock under pressure. Notice how it's lost its 200dma once again (green line).
JSE:ARIShort
by MarcoOlevano
JSE ALSI waiting for a direction to break out of The JSE ALSI 40 continues to move in some form of Symmetrical Triangle. And it's been doing so since September 2023. Right now the price is below the 200MA which does indicate a BEAR market. However, when you see the 200MA, it's been moving sideways, which does not give the indicator it's reliable signal for a trending motion. And with the price near the apex, means a breakout is imminent. If we look at the international markets like the Dow Jones and S&P500, they've hit all time highs. And as you know, the international markets are leading indicators which could mean we could see JSE ALSI breaking up and also heading to all time highs. The first target will be set to 73,637 and the next is the moon. So yes, my bias is bullish in Q1 - 12024
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
Multi-Choice after its breakway gap could fly from here to R135Couple of things with Multi-choice. It moved on low liquidity to the downside before making a break-away gap and back into the uptrend. Now with gaps they close over 70% of the time and so, we're getting that retest back to close the gap, retest the uptrend and possibly heading up from there. We got the Cup and Handle, which broke up and make a fakeout. But I believe this is temporary, as there are a couple of retests to take place including 200MA. First target could head to R135.75 Fundamentals The rally in MultiChoice Group Limited (JSE:MCG) in 2024 has been influenced by several factors, including a significant acquisition move by CANAL + SA, which expressed a non-binding intention to acquire a 68.24% stake in MultiChoice Group for ZAR 30.4 billion.
JSE:MCGLong
by Timonrosso
JSE ALSI 40 poised for upside this year - Target 84,298TECHNICALS Symmetrical Triangle has formed on the daily since I would say 10 August 2023. There are good technical signs that a breakout to the upside is imminent. First we have a long term upward range from 2020 which the price continues to bounce off the uptrend. Second we have a trending 200MA which the price still needs to break above as it's been in a pathetic sideways range for the last year. JSE traders know what I'm talking about. But once we get that breakout, we could see a target of 84,289 FUNDAMENTALS Index Rebalancing and Convergence There's a note on the JSE’s planned index harmonization which could affect the ALSI and Swix indices, aiming for a convergence by March 2024. INDEX PERFORMANCE This adjustment might influence the index's composition and performance, potentially affecting investor sentiment positively depending on the specifics of the harmonization. This can increase investor confidence in the index as a benchmark, potentially leading to more investment in products tied to the index, such as ETFs and mutual funds. BALANCE EXPOSURE! Also there could be better balance exposure across stocks or sectors, reducing volatility and appealing to risk-averse investors.
TVC:SA40Long
by Timonrosso
SAPPI looking shap! Target potential to R56.76Symmetrical Triangle seems to have formed on Sappi. Now on the contrary of a Symmetrical Triangle being a Continuation pattern, it is possible for a reversal to take place in this instance. We have the converging of the trendlines where the price has reached an apex. Strong buy divergences and price action to the up. It's a bit premature to BUY just yet but I anticipate a breakour to the upside. Then full steam ahead. Other peripheral indicators confirm upside: 7>21>200 RSI>50 (Buy divergence) Target R56.76
JSE:SAPLong
by Timonrosso
Tsogo Sun - WHich way to break out? R1.94 or R27.69?The daily is very noisy. Even the weekly is crazy. So I had to really break it down and look at the monthly chart. And what we can see is the noise being reduced to a RECTANGLE. Now right now the price action is down. Despite the breakin uptrend. Despite the higher lows. The current momentum is down. And all we can do is wait for a breakout. Which way to Break? Break down - R1.94 Break up - R27.69 I am going to remain neutral and this play is a MAJOR patience game that can take YEARS to play out. I don't like what I'm seeing with the fundamentals: High Level of Debt: Tsogo Sun has been reported to have a high level of debt. A substantial debt burden can be a concern for investors as it may affect the company's financial flexibility and profitability due to the interest and repayments required. Unstable Dividend Track Record: The company has had an unstable dividend track record, which may lead to concerns about the consistency of returns to shareholders. Valuation Concerns: Even though the stock has been trading below what is estimated as its fair value, investors may still have concerns about the future growth prospects and other intrinsic valuation metrics. Performance Relative to Industry: Tsogo Sun has underperformed the ZA Hospitality industry, which returned 5.1% over the past year, indicating that it may not be keeping pace with its industry peers.
JSE:TSG
by Timonrosso
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UPDATE: Vukile Properties set for upside in 2024Inv Head and Shoulders formed on Vukile as of my last update. The progress has been slow but sure. It broke above the neckline, stayed above the uptrend and 200MA. So the next target I'm raising even higher. But this time to R17.59 FUNDAMENTALS: Positive Earnings Release: Vukile Properties released their first half 2024 earnings showing an increase in earnings per share (EPS) compared to the first half of 2023. An increase in EPS is typically a strong indicator of a company's profitability and can attract investors​​. Dividend Guidance Revision: The company revised its dividend guidance for the year ending 31 March 2024, which may have been perceived positively by the market, reflecting a strong future outlook​​. Management and Board Changes: There have been management changes announced in recent months, which might have been received well by investors if they believe these changes will lead to better performance or a more positive strategic direction for the company​​. Portfolio Value and Performance: ' Vukile's real estate portfolio value has been significant, and the performance of the stock has been exceeding both the industry and the market over the past year, which can boost investor confidenc
JSE:VKELong
by Timonrosso
Calgro settings itself for super upside in 2024W Formation has formed on Calgro M3. We haven't had our breakout yet but it's most definitely forming higher lows. ANd it's above the 200MA with a predominant uptrend. This is all great news for potential upside. We'll set the first target at R6.03 FUNDAMENTALS: Calgro M3, a South African property development company, has been experiencing a rally in its stock for several reasons: Impressive Financial Performance: Calgro M3 reported strong financial results for the fiscal year ending in February 2023. This included a significant increase in earnings per share and overall revenue, demonstrating the company's ability to generate sustainable profits and manage costs effectively​​. Robust Revenue Pipeline: The company has a solid revenue pipeline in residential property development, with a forecast of R15.9 billion. This includes over 22,000 opportunities and the inclusion of a major development project, Frankenwald, which is expected to add at least 20,000 opportunities​​. Successful Residential Developments: Calgro M3 has been successful in its residential property development segment, with a large number of completed and under-construction opportunities. This success is a key driver of the company's revenue and growth prospects​​.
JSE:CGRLong
by Timonrosso
Hulamin poised for great upside in 2024Cup and handle has formed on Hulamin since 10 May 2023. With these Penny STocks and less liquid markets, they can take a long time to form patterns and formations. But when they breakout, they can rocket in the direction of the breakout. I like that it's restested the support and brim level, and is showing that the buying is accumulating. And that that price is above the 200MA. These are always risky markets to dabble into, but they're fun nevertheless. Target R3.91 FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS: Growth in the Can Market: Hulamin has been focusing on expanding its presence in the lucrative can market. This strategic move likely increased investor confidence in the company's growth prospects and operational focus. Aluminium Prices: The price of aluminium has been testing a 13-year high, which positively impacts Hulamin's valuation and profitability, as it is an aluminium products group. Stock Movement and Company Talks: The company's stock has seen significant movement, with its value almost doubling in a week. This surge is partly due to Hulamin being in talks that may affect its stock, though details of these discussions were not disclosed.
JSE:HLMLong
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: MTN on the way to the R60.65 level :(Diamond Formation formed on MTN. This is a broadening pattern that could have broke either way. The fact that it broke down and almost retested the 200MA showed the momentum was down and bearish. Now it's on a one way trip down. First to R90.00 at next support If it breaks below we could very well see our main target at R60.65 FUNDAMENTALS MTN Group, a big telecom company in Africa, is facing a serious lawsuit in the US. They are accused of doing business with a group linked to terrorism, which could have helped fund terrorist activities. This is a big deal because it's the first time a company might be held responsible in the US for helping a terrorist group. Because of these legal issues, investors might be worried about MTN's future. This concern can lead to a drop in MTN's stock price, as investors might sell their shares fearing potential financial losses or damage to the company's reputation.
JSE:MTNShort
by Timonrosso
UPDATE: Thungela continues it's land slide since the H&S break Unfortunately, the price did break below the H&S and Thungela showed a ton of supply and selling coming in. This means, the target is still set to R91.93. The support at R121.50 was the last hope for the share to hold and bounce. But now it's clear that this resource miner is in trouble. Now let's cover the fundamentals. Coal Prices Affecting Profit: Thungela's profit dropped significantly due to weak coal prices. In a recent half-year report, their profit fell by 69%​​. Earnings Forecast to Decline: Analysts predict Thungela's earnings will decrease by an average of 64.3% per year over the next three years​​. Dividend Instability: The company's track record with dividends isn't very stable, which can unsettle investors​​. Stock Performance: Over the past year, Thungela's stock price decreased by 44.73%. In the last three months, it dropped by 27.43%, and in the last month, it fell by 15.66%​​. Price Volatility: Thungela's stock has shown high volatility, with an average weekly movement of 5.5%, which is higher than the industry average​​.
JSE:TGAShort
by Timonrosso
MTN Black Diamond to take the price to R60.65?Diamond Formation formed over ther last two years with MTN. Now initially, you wait for a breakout before you trade a broadening pattern like the diamond. And then, we saw it break below - showing the momentum and supply was higher to the downside. I sent this analysis out and called it a short investment. What that means is that this type of trade is a LONG hold and it will take time to hit the target. Luckily with CFDs you'll earn interest on the trade. And as price is staying below the 200MA, the target is still on to R60.65 Thoughts?
JSE:MTNShort
by Timonrosso
Poor vodacom - Target hit at R92.00 but very unexpectedlyUm... Ok I did not expect that. Look Vodacom has been going through a very tough down channel since April 2022. The high was around R160.00. The downtrend then subsided but started moving in a very eloquent channel with highs and lows. Well we expected the channel to hit the high and drop down to R92.00. But not in one candle suddenly. I don't even know if there was enough liquidity to get most people out, but here we are. So the channel will continue until it breaks. And Range Bounded traders will be thrilled to continue profiting going long and short. Are you?
JSE:VODShort
by Timonrosso
Hyprop ready to head HIGHER to R36.00Cup and Handle has officially formed on the daily chart. This was confirmed by the bulls that there is upside to come when the price stayed above the 200MA. Now once we get our breakout, we'll be more inclined for further upside and demand. Target R36.02 ABOUT THE COMPANY: Foundation and Listing: Hyprop Investments Limited was founded in 1987 and is listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange (JSE) under the ticker HYP. Market Capitalization: As of January 2024, Hyprop has a market capitalization of approximately R10.9 billion. Primary Focus: The company is a retail-focused Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), owning and managing a substantial portfolio of mixed-use precincts. Portfolio Value: Its portfolio is valued at around R40 billion, underpinning dominant retail centers in key economic nodes. International Presence: Beyond South Africa, Hyprop has a significant presence in Eastern Europe. Diverse Property Portfolio: In South Africa, Hyprop's portfolio includes 12 prime shopping centers. The company also has exposure to malls in sub-Saharan Africa through Atterbury Africa.
JSE:HYPLong
by Timonrosso