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Kc

Coffee (KC) analysisAfter the strong bullish speculation on sugar finally ended, with the price is returning to more realistic values, my attention shifted to coffee. Coffee, which was also heavily speculated upwards, reaching an absurd price of $ 140, has returned to the $ 100 area and then rebounded. At the end of the bounce, as you can see from the chart below, a distribution phase has begun, what in the candlestick analysis is called "checkmate." Coffee, if there is no particularly positive news and data, will fall again in the coming weeks. Both because of the coronavirus effect, and because Brazilian production has grown a lot (also helped by the favourable climate), which will bring the price down. Also (confidential news), a well-known Italian coffee company is still waiting to fix the price of the next deliveries, as it is sure that the contango will drop, as well as the prices. Next short targets: $ 106.50/108.00 - $ 101.00 - $ 97.50/99.00 - $ 94.00.
ICEUS:KC1!Short
by TradingwDavid
2
Correction or sideways?Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel. Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are as high as ever and provide good selling opportunities for commercials. IMHO, downside 1x2 calendar spreads or short call spreads are options.
K
by mjhillpp
Things point to 140 for now (2nd month continuation)Looks down to the 140 area for a test. However as long as the orange or blue trends hold, the upwards trend is still intact IMHO. short call spreads above 165 in Dec or January might be a good idea. I would buy any puts as downside seems limited for the moment and option volatility might decline during a sell off diminishing returns on long option strategies. 1x2 put spreads 10 to 15 cents wide for flat selling the 2 buying one over two month could be good IMHO
KShort
by mjhillpp
2
Coffee Tactical Low in New Bull CycleI am bullish Coffee since a series of bullish momentum divergences started to develop in February, March and April. As with other commodities, I am convinced that the early 2016 lows were important cyclical lows. I am therefore bullish Coffee long-term. The weakening US Dollar should further support the entire commodities complex. The latest correction brought the futures back to an important breakout level, which was succesfully tested. The next swing in coffee futures should target 169/170, although it may fade at 160. An interesting trade, nevertheless. ETF Idea in New York: JO ETF Idea in London: 3CFL ($-listed, 3x times leverage, risky) Best,
KLong
by gorillacharts
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well. Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs. Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
KShort
by mjhillpp
2
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5