Ichimoku Keltner Strategy (by Flexa)-INDICES/METALS BacktestingThe pair and the timeframe you see is the winner in the INDICES/METALS category with profit factor criteria
From 4032 results we have for this strategy :
* 1012 results with Profit Factor > 1
* 1002 results with Profit Factor>1 and Sharpe Ratio>0
* 82 results with Profit Factor>1 and Sharpe Ratio>0 and Percent Profitable>50
Using the previous data :
* Best timeframe for all categories : 1m with 46 and 10m with 42 pairs
* Best pair for all categories : BINANCE:ETHUSD with 27 timeframes
* My rating for this strategy is : 2.0337% ranked 3rd from total of 6
Check my posts for all instrument categories
1st (FOREX), 2nd(CRYPTOs) and 3rd(INDICES/METALS)
I will split each strategy backtesting in this manner
I'm talking for strategy :
Ichimoku Keltner Strategy (by Flexa) Oct 19, 2017
I test 29 Forex pairs from FXCM, 51 Crypto Pairs from Binance and 46 CFDs Indices and Metals from OANDA
In total 126 pairs using 32 !!! timeframes
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,15,17,20,24,25,30,45 minutes
1,1-1/2,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,10,12,16,20 hours
1 and 2 Days
In total 4032 results per strategy
I like profit factor and Sharpe ratio as my main guides but also percent profitable does matter
The results of forex were with 1000 contracts, default currency USD and 0.07 USD per order commission
At Cryptos i use 1 contract, default currency USD and no commission because most cryptos are spread based.
At Indices i use the same details as Crypto.
I didn't touch any settings at the strategy for all three ideas (only the backtesting starting day where i maxed out the available data)
I can't post direct links according to house rules, since i love TradingView and i play with their rules.
However my profile links and my signature may help for extensive information.
Keltner Channels (KC)
As Keltner Channel Flattens out - BIG move for Bitcoin comingAs we can see BTC is caught in the lower half of the Keltner Channel, which is a type of consolidation typically seen just prior to explosive price movements.
I cannot say this will be the upward trend we are waiting for, it could go down much further. But either way, the next move should be big.
BTCUSDT - Short by Keltner Channels 23 Jan 20211. How to use Keltner Channels
a_ Length of Keltner's basis line is 50. It gives the best result in finding rule of BTCUSD.
b_ How to confirm a trend.
- Upper 2 is used to confirm Keltner channels at Uptrend.
- Lower 2 is used to confirm Keltner channels at Downtrend.
c. How to determine a swing Entry.
_ Upper 1 is used to buy when the market makes a corrective.
_ Lower 1 is used to sell when the market makes a corrective.
2. Long signal is confirmed when Closed of candle crossover the Upper 2.
3. Short signal is confirmed when Closed of candle crossunder the Lower 2.
4. Stoploss is calculated by the price closed candle +/- the value of Average true range (length=20 bars)
Stoploss = previous Close +/- atr(20)x2x1.3
-> To move the stoploss every 1 hour.
5. Filter the Candle is over 93% for Not Entry.
EURUSD - Signal by Keltner - Stoch - ADX 14 Jan 2021Risk/reward: 1/1.3 | Entry by: Upper/Lower | Keltner crossing: 2 | Candle not entry: 80% | Stochastic: 70/15 | Adx: 31/9/9 | Notrade friday
Max risk: 1.5% - Risk / reward: 1 / 1.3.
1. Trend identification:
... Keltner: Price Through Upper / Lower 1 gives 1 point. 2 points are eligible for entry.
... Stochastic:
...... k> 70: Uptrend. k <15: Down trend.
... ADX: 31 provides strong trend following signal.
2. Entry point:
... Price corrects to Upper / Lower when 3 conditions Keltner , Stochastic & ADX indicator meet.
3. Not trade friday.
4. Entry point 2: Entry 1 is available. Risk/reward: 1/2.
**** Percentage of Entry 2 < 50%.
EURUSD - Signal by Keltner - Stoch - ADX 12Jan 2021Risk/reward: 1/1.3 | Entry by: Upper/Lower | Keltner crossing: 2 | Candle not entry: 80% | Stochastic: 70/15 | Adx: 31/9/9 | Notrade friday
Max risk: 3% - Risk / reward: 1 / 1.3.
1. Trend identification:
... Keltner: Price Through Upper / Lower 1 gives 1 point. 2 points are eligible for entry.
... Stochastic:
...... k> 70: Uptrend. k <15: Down trend.
... ADX: 31 provides strong trend following signal.
2. Entry point:
... Price corrects to Upper / Lower when 3 conditions Keltner , Stochastic & ADX indicator meet.
3. Not trade friday.
GBPSD - Signal by Keltner, Stochastic & HigherLow LowerHighstop / profit: 2/2; keltner cross: 1; reset entry; keltner confirm: upper / lower 1; stochastic: 80/17; LH / HL: 5
Max risk: 4%.
Trend identification:
- Keltner Channel: Price cross Upper / Lower 1.
- Stochastic:
... Up trend: index k> 80
... Down trend: index k <17.
- Higher High Higher Low:
... Increase: Higher Low (HL)
... Decrease: Lower High (LH)
How to enter an order:
All 3 above conditions enter the order when the Stochastic indicator lets k crossover d into the Buy order. k crossunder d into Sell order.
********* Consider entering order 2 according to Fibo to have Risk / reward ratio: 1/2 ......
EURUSD - Signal by Keltner - Stoch - ADX 31/12/2020Risk/reward: 1/1.3 | Entry by: Upper/Lower | Keltner crossing: 2 | Candle not entry: 80% | Stochastic: 70/15 | Adx: 31/9/9 | Notrade friday
Max risk: 3% - Risk / reward: 1 / 1.3.
1. Trend identification:
... Keltner: Price Through Upper / Lower 1 gives 1 point. 2 points are eligible for entry.
... Stochastic:
...... k> 70: Uptrend. k <15: Down trend.
... ADX: 31 provides strong trend following signal.
2. Entry point:
... Price corrects to Upper / Lower when 3 conditions Keltner , Stochastic & ADX indicator meet.
3. Not trade friday.
NZDJPY - Day trade by Keltner 16/12/2020The right screen is never predicting before. Just a the best result at the history for confident to using for Trade.
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Risk: 1%.
1. The Long signal is calculate by the Close of candle crossing up The Keltner Channel Upper.
2. The Short {Sell] signal is calculate by the Close of candle crossing down The Keltner Channel Lower.
3. Reset the Up/Down confirm at Entry.
4. Don''t entry when occurs the Reversal Candle (over 80% the Heigh of Keltner Channel).
5. Stoploss and Take Profit is calculated by Plus or Minus from the Price Entry.
US30 - Follow the trend by Keltner & Stoch indicatorMax risk: 2%.
Stop loss move follow the trend.
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+ A Long trend is when the price close & crossover the Keltner Upper 2 + k value of Stochastic indicator crossover 80.
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+ A Short trend is when the price close & crossunder the Keltner Lower 2 + k value of Stochastic indicator crossunder 20.
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+ to Entry when k value (Stoch indicator) make correction and cross the d value (Stoch indicator)
- Buy: k & d > 79
- Sell: k & d < 17
NZDJPY - Day trade by Keltner 11/12/2020- Double bottom is with false breakdown.
- Higher High H4 timeframe
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The right screen is never predicting before. Just a the best result at the history for confident to using for Trade.
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Risk: 1%.
1. The Long signal is calculate by the Close of candle crossing up The Keltner Channel Upper.
2. The Short {Sell] signal is calculate by the Close of candle crossing down The Keltner Channel Lower.
3. Reset the Up/Down confirm at Entry.
4. Don''t entry when occurs the Reversal Candle (over 80% the Heigh of Keltner Channel).
5. Stoploss and Take Profit is calculated by Plus or Minus from the Price Entry.
Neo may test bullish channelThe moving average at 100 day close and 21 close are beginning to converge amidst resistance test. This local resistance is at $118 and will be approached in in the coming day. If volume picks up and Bollinger bands and Keltner channels stay tight with increased volume, a bull run is possible. If a bounce off the resistance happens and movement breaks the local support at $94 expect a bear run to the next support. Overall, optimistic that Neo will shine this spring and will be $250 by summer.
Gold Trades in Tiny Range as Big News Weekend AwaitsGold closed up a point and a half today on an extremely low volatility day and ended the day trapped within the net of the 7 day moving average and the upper band of the Keltner Channel. I expect another quiet day tomorrow as the world is waiting for the results of the French election this weekend. If the populist candidate wins and the French decide they want out of the EU, this could create major disruption in the global markets. Gold could be the big winner in all of this as the precious metal would be seen as one of the last safe havens around. Even the Japanese Yen wouldn't be a safe haven bet while tensions with the North Koreans seems to mount every day.
So, while I am in the short trade, we all need to be on the watch for Black Swan events. This week may be the proverbial quiet before the storm!
But, until then, my technical analysis does show that Gold right now is a short side trade. In addition to everything I've been calling out the last week on this, I have drawn a couple of orange lines on the chart which show a clear divergence between the last high of the year from last Friday on the price chart verses the QStick indicator on the bottom. QStick is a Rate of Change indicator and it is showing that the month long bull run has lost it's steam. A pullback to the 21 day moving average at 1263 is very reasonable.
To complete the picture, take a look at the Heikin-Ashi chart. We've now had a red doji followed by a very weak red candle.
If you do stay in a trade over this potentially volatile weekend, please use good money management techniques to protect your account. :-)
Disclaimer: This post is for education purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Falters Amid Profit Taking at Over Bought LevelsGold closed flat on the day after pushing up into the 2 to 3 Std Dev Bollinger Bands. The low of the day was at the .618 Fib level. The daily haDelta also turned red today (top indicator) although the weekly haDelta remains bullish (middle indicator). So while it is clear that Gold is over bought, there is no confirmation yet that the uptrend is over. I will be watching to see the reaction at the 1277 level which is where both the 7 day moving average and the upper Keltner Channels are.
The Heikin Ashi candles remain bullish, both on the daily and weekly charts. This tells me that we are still in a buy the dip mode.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
Gold Stays Range-Bound After Friday's KnockdownOn Monday, Gold closed up .8 points but did not recover any of the momentum after last Friday's explosive move up and then equally explosive sell off to end the day and the week. After that action last Friday, Gold continues to trade within a tight range that started on March 22. It is obvious that the Bollinger Bands are contracting and the haDelta is poised to cross over to the downside. In addition, Monday's Heikin-Ashi candle was red (see chart below). The overall outlook, at this point, is Neutral.
Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Trading is at your own risk.
GLD Overbought, but Could Become More SoGLD has become overbought as shown by the Hurst Bands. Price could possibly exceed the overbought Hurst Band (pink colored band).
The Starc - (minus) Band has crossed over the middle (light bluw) line of the Hurst Bands. This is typical when price action begins to become extreme. It does not mean that the extreme price action cannot or will not continue for a while longer. I'm thinking it probably will.
Price is approaching the top of the Keltner Channels (blue bands) which indicates strong price momentum to the upside.
Of note is the dark blue plot of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) price. As the dollar price has moved down from $86.74, the GLD price has recovered. As the dollar is at extreme overbought levels (not plotted on this chart) I expect it will continue to move lower giving GLD room to move up a little more.
At the bottom is plotted the Hurst Oscillator. It is the same information plotted by the Hurst Bands in a little easier to read form.
Overall, expect GLD to continue to move higher.
Bitcoin Technical Breakdown ContinuesBitcoin continues its technical breakdown. On the 1-day chart the 50-day EMA has crossed below the 100-day EMA. You'll also notice Bitcoin price has dropped far below the 200-day EMA as well.
In addition, Bitcoin has fallen below the Keltner Channels, which is something I had mentioned as a possibility in the past.
On Balance Volume (OBV) is at an extremely low level. The last time OBV was at these levels Bitcoin price was closer to $100 than $200.
Expect the pain to continue.
Bitcoin Price and Volume Trend is Still DownAt this point the Bitcoin price has made a decent recovery from past couple of days where price dropped to the mid-$550's. However, looking at the chart the Bitcoin price and volume trends from June are still down. While the price in relation to the Keltner Channels and moving averages did not behave as I thought, I believe they will still exert influence on the price.
For example, the price could go to the top, or perhaps even above the Keltner Channels - somewhere just North of $620. But, then, around the $630 level it runs into price resistance represented by the green line. A similar picture is painted by On Balance Volume (OBV) which correlates with price uptrends and downtrends. OBV had a nice little uptick, but it is not that far from the resistance represented by the red line.
Not pictured on this chart is the KDJ indicator. Earlier today when the price advanced past $600 the "J" part of the indicator moved above the 100 level. "J" can move above 100 and below 0. This can lead to dramatically higher or lower prices, but it also is a good indication right now of the price becoming overstretched.
There is significant price resistance from $620 all the way up to $680. Weekly technical indicators are bearish, and neither price nor volume have broken through overhead resistance. So, for now, I will sit tight and wait to see what happens.