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#TSLA: Likely bottomed and is about to rally over 1kI'm long $TSLA for a few days already, and it is coiling for a massive move up in my opinion, as many fundamental catalysts are lining up in the coming weeks and months. I can see a resumption of the big uptrend that kicked in after basing during late 2019. Sentiment has turned pretty grim as the stock corrected and lagged $Nasdaq, and investors seemed pessimistic regarding Elon's foray into crypto, as well as prospects for China sales, and Model Y sales in Europe, as new competition arrives in the market in droves. The thing is, competition is actually far behind in range and specs, and $TSLA has a solid lead for the most part despite the bears' insistence on pointing out the risks in the bull case. Things will start falling into place going into the next quarterly report, and after we hear the deliveries number soon. It has been a long time since I could recommend buying into $TSLA with this level of conviction, but I think the time to be positioned is now, specially considering the pivot away from value stocks and inflation bets that is causing tidal waves in the macro picture now, since FOMC last week. I'm looking forward to $TSLA announcing having sold their $BTC position in the next report, as well as keen on seeing what the up coming AI day event has in store for the stock. Best of luck, Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
5
$SPX: 2000 top overlaid on price...I really think we likely saw a long term top in equities and a major turning point in the various trends that we had since 2009 until recently. I copied the pattern from the high in the year 2000, to give us an idea of what to expect, since that was the last time a yearly timeframe Time@Mode pattern concluded, I think it can serve as a guide from here onwards. Publishing this one for posterity, it's interesting that we already have a Dot Com bubble like chart in $ARKK monthly, definitely very critical to figure out if we already topped, as per the yearly, or if we get a different bear market pattern next. In my opinion, the massive excess we saw since 2020 post COVID, with increased retail participation is akin to the frenzy that started in the year 1998, and topped by 2000, which would fit today being equivalent to that period. I will try to navigate this period profitably, my strategy is to have a long/short portfolio, buying interesting bullish setups in stocks with lower valuations, commodities related positions, and defensive names, all that have historically fared well during yearly trend expirations when bear markets and long term sideways consolidations started, like between 2000 and 2013, or before, during the 70s. I also short overvalued names where I perceive that the story driving them is exhausted, and are rolling over, with insane valuations and market participants complacent and buying option premium on the way down...while shorting options against my short positions. I manage risk carefully, and have split my portfolio in two: one trading account with 25% of my firepower, and 75% in a long term account where I have only long term long positions, no leverage, and try to sell calls to generate income while holding my long term bets. Best of luck, let's hope we get further clarity over time. Fitting this scenario would result in a tricky period unfolding for months, but eventually we will get a really steady decline to trade more aggressively on the short side. Patience will reward us here, can't take big risks and expect to make money as a bear simply holding random bearish entries. Cheers, Ivan.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
6
$PYPL: Buy here...Risk is small.Paypal has finally acted like it is forming a bottom, after a long and bloody decline that drove it down 70% from the top. I think the market is going to produce a substantially big relief rally, similar to the move that took place in the year 2000, from May to September back then. Equities then proceeded to roll over steadily, after triggering a monthly timeframe Time@Mode down trend signal. Sentiment is extreme and people have finally panicked enough with rising oil and the war in Ukraine situation, to the point that I think a rally will catch everyone offside here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:PYPLLong
by IvanLabrie
$CW: Defense stocks look primedQuarterly charts look extremely appealing in various defense names, $CW is one example of a good valuation and technical setup being present in tandem, together with the right macro backdrop for long term appreciation in this stock. Price to sales is at reasonable levels vs margins here, and free cash flow yield is around 5.95%, with a 4.35% earnings yield (TTM). The stock can reach between $263.08 and $558.90 by Q2 2025, according to the Time@Mode trend signal present here. Long term, the invalidation for said trend sits below $123.84, but I would use a tighter stop for sizing at least, best bet is to not let yourself be stopped out and rather assign a determined % of your long term account to the sector, and rather monitor the long term invalidation and also the evolution of fundamentals on each quarterly report and main corporate event every year to determine if the long term bullish thesis remains viable. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:CWLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$PFE: Big weekly trend setting up...I think $PFE offers a tremendous opportunity here, good setup to enter a position with low risk vs reward potential. Could be a long term position as well, depending on how it evolves. I'm long 12.07% here, risking a 3 times the daily ATR move against me for a 1% loss if it drops that much. Valuation is attractive and long term charts have a huge setup in $PFE, the big correction as of late seems to be over, and it's ready to go steadily up again. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PFELong
by IvanLabrie
4
BTCUSDT two key levels to watch!The price is testing the first support of the ascending change, where the price created a nice daily candle with a false breakout and hold the 40k support. In 4h timeframe, the price is going to create a descending channel below the weekly resistance. Now we need to monitor two levels, the weekly resistance for a long scenario and the daily 4h support for a deep retracement. So how to approach it? IF the price is going to have a clear breakout from the weekly resistance (above 42k ) we could see a new bullish impulse on 45k, otherwise if the price is going to lose the 40k, the next valid support is 1.13 Fibonacci Ext, 37k ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
by InkyGrip
12
$SONO: Short setup spotted$SONO has a great short signal here, paired with a longer term down trend active, coming down from overbought readings in the daily timeframe, and below the most recent 'Key Earnings Level' from the 'Key Hidden Levels' suite of indicators developed by my mentor @timwest . A great setup considering possible implications and the state of affairs in the market these days. You can enter shorts on slight retrace if possible, or try to enter asap when pre market opens, stop loss here should be sufficiently wide (in general a basic 3 times the daily 11 period Average True Range distance from entry works, but you can risk 0.5 average ranges above the yellow box here for a tighter stop). The company was unprofitable until 2020 essentially, and has reached bubble valuations, with growth needing to continue at this pace by 2024 for current valuation to be sustainable. As other growth stocks, it's not where I'd park my money, unless there's a technical short setup forming...
NASDAQ:SONOShort
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSDT is testing the key level! On the upper chart (weekly timeframe) the price is testing the previous weekly resistance as new support, 0n 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci level. The current Weekly candle needs to close above the weekly structure. On the daily timeframe, the price is creating a channel between the monthly structures (32k and 48k) on the 4h timeframe, the price is creating an ascending channel and the price is testing the 0.786 Fibonacci level on the weekly support. How to approach? The price is in a key zone. If the price is going to hold the weekly support we could see a bounce until the previous daily resistance on 44800, where the price has the M's neckline. Otherwise, If the price is going to lose the support, the next Valid support si 40k –––– Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
by InkyGrip
10
LUNAUSDT: Huge upside vs modest riskI've been thinking about it and the setup here is probably the best trade to take in crypto markets going into the end of the long term trend signals I had forecasted in $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD as far back as July 2020. Weekly and daily charts, and also ratios vs $BTC and $ETH show $LUNA can perform incredibly going forward. We all are aware of Do Kwon's stunt, to accumulate a massive $Bitcoin stash to back his $UST stablecoin, and thus reinforce the self reinforced trend present in $LUNA from the start. The last big self reinforced trend we observed in crypto was $Solana and also $Bitcoin and the $GBTC arb play that was absorbing a lot of supply and fueling speculation until the Canadian ETF launched. These trends form tremendous bubbles that George Soros describes as the ideal opportunity to build wealth when identified. The key will be identifying what breaks the self reinforced mechanism, and reverses the trend bursting the bubble that is being inflated here. The mechanism in question makes each transaction made using Terra’s stablecoin incur a fee which is goes to reward holders of $Luna, the ecosystem's 2nd native token. The Treasury and miners hold these tokens, so higher transaction volumes create more miner demand (which should increase the cost of attacking the network in theory) while giving the Treasury more funds to protect the stablecoin and fund discounts for Terra users who make purchases with the stablecoin (similar to cashbacks). As such, transaction growth will impact $LUNAUSD's price via this mechanism...Can be a double edged blade, and will be interesting to see how this bubble unwinds. For now, it's a good thing to hold considering downside risk and timing of the T@M signals present in the weekly chart. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
#SPX: Potential forecast if we hold support here$SPX confirmed a bullish signal today, after it was evident selling had been absorbed systematically by long term investors since September 4th until today. This buying puts a floor on the market here, and potentially offers a solid support level if retested once prices move higher, if they do hold here for a couple weeks. A new weekly signal can trigger by the week starting Sep 28th, and we have many short term charts in certain tech stocks showing bearish signals, while a lot of other stocks -energy, travel, hotels, to name a few- have bullish signals, so a sideways index here would not be too crazy. Once we confirm a new bullish signal we could project a rally over 3684, at least, provided we get bullish confirmation next. I'm holding both bullish and bearish positions in individual stocks, as well as some insurance using derivatives as well, but should we get a bullish swing once again, the bullish signals will far outweigh any potential loss I might have to deal with from bearish setups. That's the beauty of stock picking, many times you can find good trades that might not correlate the index at all times, or even afford the luxury of trading both long and short positions in different stocks. Stimulus talks need to progress for the rally to continue, so I will be keeping an eye on those developments going forward. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
23
BTCUSD: Relief rally setting upI suspect we are seeing a broad market relief rally in risk assets, including crypto. I bot my max allocation in $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD today, before US equities closed, with an 80/20% allocation to each respectively. I'm allocating 25% of my capital into it, whenever I want full exposure in crypto assets. Daily technical charts show a trend signal kicked off here, this signal formed in the $BITO chart today, and was present 2 days ago in spot charts. CME was slower to confirm and is now onboard together with the latest spot signal I'm showing you in this chart. Weekly charts can easily confirm an advance for 5 weeks here, interestingly this would take Bitcoin close to the current mid term down trend resistance at the 25% speed line (measure 25% of the speed of the decline from top to bottom, and project it as a trendline, you can try this with the Fib Speed Resistance Fan tool here on Tradingview, really useful way to gauge trends' persistence on pullbacks after a sizeable move in one direction). The long term trend I had predicted back in July/August 2020 will expire by the end of April this year, so it is fitting to get a rally into the end of the trend, time wise...I don't yet know how far this will go, but the same timing is found in various stock market trend signals in long term charts, and almost all risk assets exhibit the same behavior: a massive top since late 2021, and now a potential relief rally setting up. It's unclear if it's a retracement in a down trend, or a reversal of the decline leading to new highs, but I think it's more probable that it is merely a relief rally indeed, and all risk assets likely head lower over time, likely acting similarly to the 2000/2013 period or the move after the late 60s into the early 80s. We will know more over time. Where will Bitcoin go in this potential new paradigm scenario? It's yet to experience a long term bear market in risk assets, since it was born after the bottom in 2009, following the top of the long term bull market that started in 1982, and culminated in the year 2000. We now are seeing the end of the trend that kicked off from 2009 lows, and peaked in late 2021 probably. My guess is Bitcoin either decouples from risk assets and performs like Gold and Silver , or other commodities , which outperform during bear markets historically, or it moves like growth stocks, as it has been moving. Next move here is telegraphed: we go higher, as long as not breaching the 37200 mark give or take, within the next 16 days to 5 weeks. What comes after that is not yet clear, but it could be that it is rejected from the 25% speed resistance line. Let's stay vigilant and nimble. The Federal Reserve can exacerbate volatility this week, so I'll keep an eye on that as well...Crossing fingers gentlemen. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
$AMZN: Topped long term, short itI'm short $AMZN from here, I had briefly ridden a daily down trend signal before, but now we have a massive monthly topping pattern kicking in. I think it is a good market hedge, and might be a great long term pair trade to short it against energy longs as the ultimate reopening/end of the stay at home bubble trade. Bezos leaving was the kiss of death, antitrust risk is massive for the company, I can see this become a lengthy and very painful decline for shareholders. Better abandon ship ASAP . This might be the canary in the gold mine for FANG as well, the rally since 2009 lows is likely over and we can expect a 2000-2012 style move again. Lots of pain for hodlers, don't be left holding Bezos' bag here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by IvanLabrie
3
$DJI: Very long term view...I plotted blocks of 5 years as bars and did the T@M analysis for them, which shows a very interesting view of the long term trend cycles in equities since the start of the Dow Jones index. You can see how this helped prevent exposure to equities during the 70s for example, or guard against a decline back in 1929. As an exercise, it's highly interesting, but we also get a warning for current market cycles. The yearly trend in $DJI expires by end of 2021, and we are already beyond one target range for it, perhaps the next top is between 58k and 91k for the Dow Jones...by 2024 or sooner. Anything after 2022 is a dangerous zone already, from a T@M perspective, personally I think the market will top next year, around May...as the Fed starts hiking, the timing matches various technical charts' timing expectations. Best of luck navigating these murky waters , Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DJILong
by IvanLabrie
7
$BTCUSD: Update - 2w uptrend confirmed!I outline time duration and potential upside for the current trend signal in this chart, I had described this possibility in my previous publication. As a positive, we have pretty pessimistic wall of worry kinda sentiment now, and odds of a rally are big with this timeframe being in control of most of the major swings historically in $Bitcoin. Moving below 47k would invalidate this analysis likely. Let's see how it goes, best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
50
$NZDUSD: Good RR setup...The Kiwi dollar presents us with a high reward to risk long setup here. Set stops below 0.68 to be safe and let it ride until it hits 0.6974 for a 50% take profit, and exit the rest of the position by the close of Jan 27th, or if price hits 0.71295 before that date. Risk 0.25% minimum, and up to 1-2% of the account in this trade, you can calculate sizing based on the distance from entry to the stop loss area of your choosing (below 0.68 to be safe), a reward to risk over 1.5-2:1 would be good. Leaving 0.5-1 ATR of buffer below support is often a good idea, so something below 0.68 fits the bill considering the daily ATR. $AUDUSD has a setup here as well, and the weekly $DXY chart looks like we can get a move by next week, in that timeframe, together with strength in precious metals and copper gives me a good feeling regarding selling dollar weakness against commodity producing countries' currencies. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
$EURUSD: Potential bottom signal here...$EURUSD has a nice confluence of factors suggesting a bottom here is possible, with it rallying back towards 1.17-1.18 over time. Weekly down trend signals have taken the Euro down for a long time now, both were 13 week long each time, with the latest 13 week decline signal expiring when the Euro hit a long term support level from where it had taken off after the initial COVID crash move. I suspect we can get a reaction here once again, and can safely take a long trade with over 4 to 1 reward to risk. There's extremely positive sentiment in the dollar as of late, and it is certainly overbought here. Worth a shot! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
SPY: Sentiment resetIn this chart I plotted the period following a sub 25% AAII bulls reading, followed by a sharp rise to 55% bulls at the peak in April 2021. We now reset back down to sub 25% this week, so we might be watching a 'coiled spring' situation in equities. This is not so easily seen in $SPY as the $AAPL performance as of late distorts how equities acted for the majority of people. I included the performance of my trading strategy in the period of rising sentiment, and during the last period with deteriorating sentiment. I expect to make outsized gains again as we get a period of steady trends once more. Note I actually caught the bottom in Nasdaq overall, but the gains from that outperformance round were retraced recently with a series of short term losses. Best of luck, try to milk the good times ahead. Outsized gains away, potentially. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
10