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AMZN: Short it here, antitrust law discussion might affect itI think it's a good time to revisit the idea of shorting bubbly large caps, in particular ones with a good fundamental backdrop, to both profit from the decline in them, if it comes to pass, and hedge our risk in other long positions we hold in our portfolio. I'm focusing on $AMZN here, which has the lowest risk from my perspective. For a great breadown on it, check out Tim West's post in related ideas. The weekly upside is exhausted and implies a slow period, either a correction or consolidation for a few more weeks still. The recent run up, on the back of dovish comments from Janet Yellen, give us ample opportunity here. So, in general, I don't advocate shorting stocks, mostly because of sentiment, and the bullish signals and valuations of many companies, but other stocks do justify the concern, to name a few, $NFLX, $AMZN, $AAPL, $GOOG, $MSFT, $NVDA, $WYNN, $WST, $HD, $BBY, $MU...The recent talk of net neutrality, and now antitrust laws, might stifle some volatility in internet related stocks, and specially big behemoths like $AMZN. As a counter argument to this, sentiment remains negative for the most part, which could imply further upside to be tapped soon, according to the AAII sentiment survey data: www.aaii.com The government and the fed can pull the plug though, ultimately, and if $AMZN does trigger a reformulation of the antitrust laws, it is in for a heck of a drop. In the long run, we will have losers, but it's always good to take a valid trade opportunity, as scary as it may seem, specially if it helps balance our portfolio risk, and help bring us down into reality again after being right in most things. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by IvanLabrie
ETCEUR: Monitoring the consolidation hereI came to the realization that ETCEUR potentially offers us more upside than $ETHEUR, once both trigger a new T@M uptrend signal, probably by the end of the month. According to my projections, $ETCEUR could go as high as roughly 210 Euros within 10 weeks, after breaking a previous week high, during the week starting on July 31st. My reccomendation is to hold off from buying until then, specially if it consolidates here, showing that it is being accumulated for a new mode higher. This trade will offer a nice hedge, against our intended $ETHEUR long positions too. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
26
ZEC: Potential bottom of the correctionI'm long $ZECEUR from 225 euros here. I think we might have seen the bottom of the current correction in it, after a 6 week uptrend ended, despite extending gains a bit higher and for longer, it took 6 more weeks from the end of the first forecasted rally, to apparently form a bottom, so, it looks reasonable to assume that the spike in $ZECEUR isn't really significant (specially when pitted against $ZECUSDT for example, or $ZECBTC pairs). I will include those charts below to further illustrate my point. As you know, I trade using a method developed by my mentor, who is a hugely succesful trader and investor, called Tim West. One of the strategies developed by him, lets you determine the trend, and predict the time duration, as well as potential targets for the current trend in the instrument at hand. As fundamentals go, I think $ZEC is interesting to say the least, but, it raises some concerns among investors when you consider that there can be some hidden supply in it, that the market isn't aware of. I like the underperformance lately, relative to $XMR and $DASH, at least in the last month, probably related to fears connected to Alphabay ( themerkle.com ). Overall, I think this can resolve positively, and would induce a positive shock, and push $ZEC up again. I expect positive developments from the EEA, and Ethereum in the next month, there should be no shortage of bullish news for this and the broad crypto space. Keep in mind that sentiment is extremely negative right now, which is a good enough reason to pile in on the long side in our cryptocurrency basket again. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
TEO: Telecom is a longI'm holding longs in $TEO (via $TECO2 in the local stock market) before the big breakout happened, after the news of the Cablevision acquisition surfaced. Cablevision is a private company, leading internet and cable tv service provider. $TEO's acquisition would make it the largest firm in all of these spaces in the country. The chart is constructive for further upside, and I think fundamentals warrant strong growth in the stock. If you examine the monthly timeframe, or even yearly, we have a significant breakout there, so, I expect this to be a huge long term uptrend. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:TEOLong
by IvanLabrie
2
ETCETH: Interesting pattern here$ETCETH implies that $ETC will outperform $ETH to the tune of 200%, give or take. By this week's close, we will trigger a 14 week rally, the daily chart is already in a strong uptrend here, just taking off. I added to my $ETC position, now holding a half position, and waiting to add some more on dips, after making some more progress. I think this is an interesting trade right now, with $ETCEUR's upside potential, and also as a hedge to our $ETH exposure. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
32
GOOG: Go long at market open...I'm initiating a position in $GOOG at market open tomorrow. There was some kind of glitch, and the chart looks really funny, so I decided to post it for posterity. The folks at Zerohedge were gloating, looking at the stocks limit down after this glitch, it's actually just that, and in fact, trades that might have taken place were reversed as far as I know. Either way, price hit support -before charts got messed up- so it's a really reasonable place to enter a 10% long position in $GOOG once more. For reference, this is the way the chart looked on close: Happy Independence Day to all Americans, and remember to go long burgers... www.zerohedge.com Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:GOOGLong
by IvanLabrie
4
EURUSD: Republishing my forecast and long entry hereIn one of my previous publications, I had indicated that the Euro needed time to break above the monthly downtrend resistance zone. We have spent enough time grinding below resistance now, and the market shows it's ready to shoot higher. A tight stop long is possible here, now, and on dips after today. See my previous publication here: It becomes interesting if this is indeed a trend reversal of the scale I had foreseen back then, since it implies a steady uptrend for months to come in the Euro. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
CX: Interesting monthly and quarterly signals$CX is an interesting company here. I have liked the negativity surrounding Mexico, and emerging markets since Trump got elected, now we have a solid breakout on strong volume, and a potential monthly and even quarterly uptrend taking off from here. $CX has had strong growth in the past quarter and year, I think it can be a solid performer going forward. Management efficiency has been high, when compared to the average of the past 5 years. Fundamentals are solid, with a decent 5.9% earnings yield, 15% free cash flow yield, this company might be a great value play going forward. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:CXLong
by IvanLabrie
3
LTCUSDT: Litecoin is accumulated, probably sideways for nowLitecoin has been acting stronger than $BTC, I assume it might grind sideways like practically all coins, until all hell breaks loose by August 1st. Most people are worried, or bearish overall, and in the recent bottoms, we saw traders unload long positions in loss, to quickly realize they had fallen for a bear trap. Until fundamental risks aren't out of the way, it is highly unlikely to see a strong trend in the cryptocurrency space, so, safest bet is to accumulate longs with the smart money in your preferred basket of solid fundamental picks in this market. I'll share my entries with my clients as usual, and we will continue to build our portfolio in preparation for the eventual resumption of the weekly rally in crypto, which might culminate in a blow off top, specially if it hits my weekly targets before the long term timeframe time expires for $BTC and $ETH. The closer we get to 29.54, the safer the long entry in this range...Try to average in gradually, specially when traders become vocally negative, and specially if oversold, on dips. Coins like $LTC and $XRP, have been accumulated for long periods of time, and might be extremely resilient, despite being affected by short term volatility and bear traps/shakeouts during periods of negativity. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I'm long $LTC, $BTC, $XRP, among other currencies and tokens.
Long
by IvanLabrie
15
Oil: Might have bottomed here, next week the downtrend expiresAs discussed in the KHL chatroom, it is likely that oil has bottomed here, considering the sentiment extreme and the situation in Saudi Arabia, with Mohammed Bin Salman appointed as the next in line for the throne, replacing his uncle: www.bloomberg.com This is an interesting signal in its own right, maybe signaling a bottom, which Tim West pointed out as logical. Sentiment is very negative, with analysts claiming oil is basically a 'worthless commodity'...do your own due diligence. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
BTCUSD: UpdateI think we will see a sideways range in $BTCUSD, as anticipated in my last publication. Having bought a position very close to the recent correction bottom, I can comfortably wait it out until the weekly trends are ready to rally again. The timing for this event interestingly approaches August 1st, so, it makes me think the market will grind sideways for longer. There are two targets I came up with, after processing information from weekly and daily charts, which indicate that we can hit prices between 4000 and 6000, so, it won't surprise me to see prices rally rapidly, once fundamental risks are out of the way. I aim to build a 20% position in $BTC by then. Longer term charts imply a rally is likely all year, which is even more interesting, since the SEGWIT2MB date for a hard fork would be by the end of the year, this could be a cause for a correction or consolidation, cooling off after a 2 year rally. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
XRPUSDT: Uptrend still active in the long termWe have been accumulating $XRP positions lately, and now awaiting the breakout by the 26th, courtesy of potential announcements that will take place during the European Money 20-20 conference, and/or the interledger meetup in Geneva on the same day. Here are some links: www.meetup.com www.xrpchat.com Potential upside is tremendous, as derived from the T@M signal on chart. I expect the rally to rapidly progress after the 26th. Best of luck if joining me and my clients on this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
153
TWTR: Shot in the dark...Maybe this time is different. I'm back in the $TWTR long trade, with a small 2.95% stake in it. I think there is a chance to start a rally from here, after the recent daily downtrend time runs out tomorrow. While above the levels in yellow, we could trigger a monthly uptrend, at any time, so, it is a good idea in my opinion to enter prematurely, and see if we gain traction. Perhaps stories about acquisition finally surface, and this time, we do hit our top targets succesfully. Potential monthly upside shown by the red dashed lines on chart, by year end. Now that even my president uses $TWTR for policy announcements, maybe things become more positive for the company. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by IvanLabrie
10
Mexican Peso: Weekly uptrend triggered, above resistanceThe Mexican Peso is now trading above the US Presidential Election key resistance level. Price could soar from here, we can enter longs and add on dips, or average in during a few days to a month. Returns are over 10% at the very least, in the coming 2-3 months. Negativity against the Peso kept many traders skeptical of this rally, all the way up. This is usually the case with any trending market. It's key to identify which are trending to ride significant moves. We can find very low risk entries using the T@M methodology created by my mentor, Tim West. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4