Get started

Keyhiddenlevels

ETHBTC: Chillax, once more...I'm flat and monitoring the action in $ETHBTC. I think we need to get some kind of sentiment reset to be able to buy it again. In general, I don't advocate shorts in cryptocurrencies, it is a lot more productive to trade the long side only. There are some fundamental risks at play, which would be interesting to see Vitalik Buterin and friends iron out succesfully. For now, I remain skeptical, and the market's exhuberance doesn't do much to calm my anxiety. I will let it form a new buy signal and follow the developments closely to buy back when viable. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
15
XBTEUR: Sideways consolidationPeak sentiment helped us find the top a few times. The last one was a nice bear market in BTC for a few days. I covered my shorts, and bought part of my BTC position (10% of net worth). I aim to have a maximum of 25%, after we get all the scaling news out of the way, and once we have a new weekly uptrend signal. For now, we are under pressure, and we might see a volatile sideways range ensue. The daily chart shows a potential uptrend starting, which points to a sharp 10 day advance, today being day #1, which could top and reverse back down to support, be it at the starting point of the move like the previous 9 day rally, or maybe to the 2170 mark. I noticed people were starting to become negative a day ago, when we were hitting support, and traders who were complaining about being in cash, and even worse shorting, started to complain about NOT being in a short anymore, and missing this action. This is typical behavior at turning points. The thing is that sentiment is rapidly switching, turning 180 degrees over the course of 2 weeks...Interesting to say the least. Combine the crowd behavior, with the fundamental information available to us from multiple sources and we can paint a vivid picture of what's going on, and what we can expect from this or any market. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: this is the signal I sent to my clients to long: imgur.com "Let's try buying a 10% long in BTC now. We will add back to longs gradually."
Long
by IvanLabrie
34
XBTEUR: To the gamblers, latecomers, and bubble chasersI think it's a good time to reevaluate divesting from crypto once again. We have considerable risks, yet no one even bothers thinking about them. Anyone aware of fundamentals knows that we can see some nasty scenarios in the coming weeks and months. I would reccomend taking a break from crypto, and for instance, holding only 25% of your capital in it, be it in the shape of some cryptocurrency or cash at exchanges. The former induces risk from potential volatility to come, the latter, from 3rd party risks. Either way, it is a risky proposition, so however you look at it, try to use reason, and not emotions to decide how to protect your wealth. Upside vs downside risk favors being in cash, or even short. Fundamental risks, and sentiment extreme in BTC, and the broad crypto markets make me think the technical setup is likely to materialize, and that we can get a correction any time soon. Perhaps after June 16th, since that is the earlierst known date where we might encounter 'scaling risks'. After August 1st, some risky scenarios might ensue, some of which could cause difficulties to exchange operators, and all of which can cause this market's value to decrease significantly. The technical chart called for a rally to 3000 euros, by the end of Dec 2017, or sooner. In this case, I could assume that we have two main scenarios going forward: #1: The time duration of the rally is valid, and we get continued upside. This doesn't imply a correction won't happen. The market can take many detours before finally topping by year end. Sentiment and shorter term signals would be our guide, to navigate trends while risk/reward is positive in the short term and sentiment still negative or neutral. Sentiment is extremely bullish now, which is a contrarian signal and a cause for concern for any astute investor. In this positive scenario, we get a healthy correction during this time and going into August events, and maybe lasting for a while longer until sentiment resets, everyone panics and we bottom in the weeky timeframe again. Then we launch into a rally for the duration of the year again. #2: This was IT, the crypto bubble peaked, we get a nasty 2 year+ correction or consolidation akin to 2013 to 2015. If this is the case, which I fear might be, we might never hit the 3000 euro mark or we hit now before the time expires for the long term rally. This could easily form a top any time soon, and the fundamental events to come would exacerbate the selloff causing the newcomers to lose all their money, longs to get margin called, maybe some exchanges to go bust, and then get a continuous chain of negative events, and increasingly negative sentiment...some possible events include problems after the scaling solutions are implemented in BTC, ETH facing technical design problems that cause the rally in it to peak and massively decline back to monthly support at 11 eur after PoS gets delayed again, China to regulate ICOs, maybe harsher regulations take place broadly accross crypto markets globally, etc. People should be wiser investors, and not gamblers who chase momentum. This never ends well, or at least is not a wise investment strategy. The insanity in sentiment has made people very critical of my work, I get ridiculed, insulted, mocked often. When all is said and done, I might be proven right, to the permabulls dismay. Disclaimer: I think BTC and cryptocurrencies are of tremendous utility in the world, and a new asset class in their own right. I would like to maintain 25% exposure to this market at all times, but it's wise to diversify into 3 other asset classes to store and grow your wealth. (local and foreign stocks, bonds/gold/silver, cash, real world businesses/passive income sources). Specially after a huge win in one market, pour the gains into equalizing your exposure in other fields.
Education
by IvanLabrie
80
DASHUSD: Potential upside is significant stillThis is my updated analysis for $DASH, seems like we have a new uptrend signal kicking off today. The action is very explosive and suggests immediate upside. The weekly targets are potentially 2, $280.3 and $646.28. The quarterly chart implies that upside to $757 is possible too. I am long $DASH, and will look to ride this trend as best as possible while it lasts. The fundamentals of many altcoins present opportunities, specially when paired against a $BTC short, so, it is a good time to trade the BTC ratio pairs. Comparing $BTC's current scaling and sentiment exhuberance risks, with other offerings in this space risks, which are better in your opinion? Comment below. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
XBTEUR: Top didn't last long...China rescued bullsIn my previous chart I had determined that Bitcoin was due for a correction, due to sentiment and a potential weekly top signal. What I didn't account for was the impact of unknown news at the time, of the timely addition of ETH to the big three chinese exchanges (Huobi, Btcchina, Okcoin) and also, a few days later, the normalization of Bitcoin withdrawals from these sites. This together with the current japanese and korean craze, triggered a failure of the forming distribution, and created a bullish signal (which I missed). Prices have continued to progress higher but now we approach the forecasted time and pice targets for this rally. I wonder if we do get a correction after this since people believe Bitcoin can rise forever, pretty much, and are openly mocking sellers. There is a potential fudstorm coming, as people in this biz would call it, associated to the scaling debate, that is bound to intensify. Since I have given up on shorting, it is prone to correct, which would frustrate me and other bears who got margin called recently (I simply got out of shorts unharmed, but some big players got margin called at okcoin lately, in the order of 13 million dollars+). Seeing a new daily low, specially after this rally time and price are exhausted, would potentially be a valid short signal to take with a tight stop above the highest high. Try not to risk more than 1%. I would even go as far as to risk only very, very small, like say 0.1-0.3% but it's up to you. Once we get the actual top, and after June's monthly close, we can determine two levels to potentially cover and buy back into long positions, ideally by July 31st or later. There is a date set for Segwit activation, by August 1st, which interestingly coincides with the time required to absorb the supply after the end of the last weekly 'Time @ mode' uptrend signal expired, so this would give us extra reassurance to go long by then if conditions are ripe for it (ideally paired with extreme bearish sentiment, which could come in anticipation of all the risks the scaling solutions present). This is a good article for people unaware of potential risks that could become a concern, once investors remove their bullish blinders (if they ever do): medium.com Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
59
Gold: Potential daily/weekly/monthly rallyGold is now rallying sharply and above the mode of these 3 timeframes, already triggered a daily rally, will confirm a weekly uptrend on close this week, and can trigger a monthly uptrend next month. I'm holding physical and paper positions, and looking to add periodically when viable. This trade is meant as both a hedge for my equity positions, and also a take profit from cryptocurrencies after massive gains this year. Best of luck if following this idea and my previous gold long reccomendations. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
XBTEUR: Long term forecast updateI have corrected my weekly chart for $XBTEUR, since I had made a small mistake on the intermediate term forecast. The weekly chart shows we can rally for one more week here, before getting a consolidation or correction, and the target for it matches the long term top target for this pair. There is a catch, if we convert the Bitstamp long term target, from USD to EUR, we get roughly to 3000 Euros for the top, so, I am inclined to aim for this lofty target in this pair as well. I will continue to hold BTC, and add if we get a correction in a month or so. My goal is to maximize my exposure to BTC when it counts, which is, right at the end of a correction or consolidation phase. So far, my timing using Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and trading methodology has been impeccable, so I expect it to continue to work until this trend tops. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
22
AUDUSD: Potentially breaking above the monthly resistance soon$AUDUSD appears to be about to rally for the intermediate to long term, judging by how the pair has been acting lately, as well as how fundamentals are setting up. With oil in a strong advance, commodities are potentially rallying higher, which would boost currencies like the Aussie dollar. The technical chart here shows the pair is coming up after being heavily oversold and very washed out, with shorts covering, helping bulls lift off. Weekly and monthly charts show good potential, with a monthly uptrend signal pending confirmation as a potential development, as well as a weekly buy signal from Tim West's proprietary indicators. Best of luck if trading it, and ideally, trade the long side with me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I am long $AUDUSD.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
ETHEUR: Long term view, chart of all chartsThis is how the Ethereum chart looks, plotted against the Euro using Kraken data. It has been the most reliable instrument to perform analysis on this pair, together with $ETHBTC from the Poloniex feed. Currently, we are tracing a daily, weekly and monthly uptrend. Periodically, smaller timeframes might be in a consolidation or retracement phase, to then rejoin the big picture trend in the monthly. Right now, we can anticipate higher prices all month, courtesy of the daily and weekly signals depicted in yellow and turquoise. This weekend is loaded with fundamental events that can further boost this rally, so I think it is logical to see $ETHEUR hit the daily and weekly top target zones in time or even earlier than expected. After the time expires for these signals, we could commence a consolidation phase, which can take a myriad of shapes, and isn't predictable yet, other than on a time duration basis. Normally, the market will absorb supply from profit taking, which takes a proportional amount of time to the rally itself, so it is logical to observe what Tim West has noted in his 'Time at Mode' proprietary method. So far, this methodology has served me well, and I would be glad to share the benefits of it with people interested in trading these powerful trends. Tim is working on new material currently, you can pm me or him to learn more about it. Now, on to the trading reccomendation aspect, if you're long, consider average volatility to determine your position sizing. During a trend, it is reccomended to gain exposure, and while consolidating, trimming it back down, or outright taking profits. Don't risk more than a 10% drawdown on a worst case scenario basis if trading long term, it will be hard to recover otherwise. Keep your coins safe in hardware wallets like the Trezor or Ledger nano, and make sure you do your due diligence when it comes to cybersecurity, and exposure to centralized exchange risk and margin trading. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Education
by IvanLabrie
34
ETHBTC: Ethereum is in an uptrend in the intermediate term$ETHBTC shows a strong uptrend in place, with a good chance of accelerating after this weekend, which is charged with news, as the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance group releases a demo of the technology they have been working on, and a series of important events take place during next week and during June. If we hold up here, and just close here or higher, the weekly will confirm a new uptrend signal, with a considerable target, which I have labeled on chart here. At the same time, we have a monthly uptrend currently active, which indicates two targets as logical and highly likely to be attained, 0.14 something and around 0.25 BTC, in the ratio chart here. Refer to my other $ETHEUR posts for the fiat targets and analysis. Although the chart is slightly different, strong trending moves in $ETHEUR will correlate with the $ETHBTC ratio going up for the most part. Good luck if already long, if not, buy into it during a few days, price shouldn't drop below 0.0359 technically speaking, and any retest of the zone below would warrant a buy, but hopefully, it doesn't happen and it just trends up from here onwards. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
XBTEUR: Update and potential weekly targetIn this chart I examine the trend since $XBTEUR bottomed after the Bitfinex hack induced correction. The weekly chart reveals an uptrend time and price target that can guide us in the coming weeks. It appears like we can reach a peak in sentiment and consolidate or get a correction after we reach this zone in the next 2 weeks. The daily chart will guide us in the next few days, keep an eye on sentiment and news stories related to $BTC. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I'm holding longs in $BTC among other cryptocurrencies.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
EURUSD: Long term outlookThe downtrend in the Euro is in danger here. If EURUSD stalls, or rallies higher, there's a chance that it breaks the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode resistance, igniting a fierce rally, after absorbing all overhead supply. I deem it as a lower probability event, but a very significant one, if we do indeed make the downtrend fail. I think we can see a huge rally. This is a very crowded trade, so I'll focus on attemtpting to catch the dollar fall, while still being long good value US equities. If by the end of June, we don't hit 0,98898, we could anticipate price breaking higher in time. The minimum required time is signaled on chart. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
XBTEUR: If this is the top...We can expect a sideways consolidation, or, some kind of correction and retest of support, during the next month, as described here. Today, a support level held, and weekly is still in an uptrend for the next 3 weeks, technically, but sentiment was too positive before this drop, and we had already exceeded all weekly upside targets ahead of time, which usually points to a 'bubbly' situation. I reduced long exposure in $BTC to about 20% of the account, exactly 2 days ago. I am now looking to hedge the downside if necessary, on at least half the position, or maybe all of it. Good vehicles to do so are altcoin pairs like $ZECBTC, $ETHBTC, $DASHBTC, $XRPBTC, but you can also open shorts against fiat currencies if you trust exchanges with your money. As I pointed out in my previous post, the spreads closing (in relative performance terms during 1 year) signaled something was going on, it wasn't a normal occurrence. Like, everyone bought closing the spread up. Who's left to buy?... The fundamental situation is interesting but potentially dangerous. Litecoin's implementation of Segwit and the first Lightning network payment lit a fire of excitement, but it can also become a risk factor if this test were to fail. The first flaw that is found in this implementation will accelerate a decline in $BTC certainly, so, it is better to be prepared. Most people saw this as bullish, many were celebrating, people in my country were getting together, drinking champagne and celebrating $BTC's high prices, and $LTC's Segwit adoption like it was the 2nd coming. This was a sentiment red flag for me, which drove me to reduce exposure to be safe. Clearly, I was right so far, since prices fell more than 5% since then. Let's see how it evolves. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
LTC and BTC: Comparing performance and weekly swings since 2015In this chart I examine the price action in both $BTC and $LTC, in the weekly timeframe, since the crypto world bottomed in 2015. It is remarkably interesting how during all this time, $LTC seemed to be in hibernation, frequently underperforming BTC, in both rallies and corrections, making the LTCBTC ratio decrease spectacularly ever since. That is, until the scaling debate started in the $BTC camp, and Charlie Lee and his team were smart enough to incorporate the Segwit upgrade that the Core $BTC developer team had been working on, and looking to implement, before they got to reach concensus and do it. This changed the action drastically, and not only $LTC but also $ETH and other coins have been increasing their activity, and value over time. The situation makes it so that $LTC can act as a testbed for new $BTC upgrades, and also, due to its network size, and market capitalization, remain a relevant player in this space. My asessment is that we should construct a portfolio of cryptocurrencies, if we want to make a very attractive profit this year, I have been trading these coins actively all year, but I think we now have a new opportunity, specially if $BTC does form a correction in the short term. Keep an eye out for a buy opportunity in both $BTC and $LTC. Japan's acceptance of cryptocurrencies can start a significant revolution in this space and I think this variable is not yet priced in accordingly. I don't think the ETF can be approved by the SEC, in the case of $BTC, or at least not yet, but if it were to happen it would ignite a furious rally in all these currencies I favor. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclaimer: I hold no $BTC or $LTC currently, and hold positions in $ETH, $XRP, $ZEC, $PPY and $DASH. I reccomend to hold coins in a secure hardware wallet device, like the Trezor, or others.
LLong
by IvanLabrie
20
EURUSD: UpdateWe now have a confirmed weekly uptrend, after retesting support...our long trade is in good profit and we can let it run with minimal risk. I'll be trading the daily to catch multiple add on trades here and there as the trend unfolds (IF it unfolds as expected). The gold spread and the fundamental/macro landscape makes me think the Euro can rally while the uncertainty lasts, while at the same time, it's quite likely to see equities go sideways, and the yen go down. The Pound and the Euro can rally against all currencies meanwhile. Specially until the spread vs gold closes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
Equal weight cryptofolio: YTD performance and analysisThis is how a 60000 euro portfolio will look like if you buy 10000 euro of each of these 6 cryptocurrencies. I think there are significant odds of seeing the rally extend until the end of 2017, when Bitcoin's long term uptrend signal expires. By then I would advise extreme caution, since it would become probable, although not definitive, to see BTC stall or even fall, for the next 2 years. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
11
DASH: Holding, watch out for the long term uptrend time exp.$DASH shows to be in a longer term uptrend, as well as a weekly one. The current target in the weekly sits above 268usd give or take. This trend's duration, appears to roughly match the end of the long term signal, which could indicate a correction or consolidation might start in this cryptocurrency's price chart. I'm holding longs, after buying 2 weeks ago, aiming to ride the rally over $200 before closing. If you're long, hold, but be wary of the time and price targets, for they could become a short term or intermediate term top. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7