Keyhiddenlevels
Soybean futures: Daily uptrend signal, potential monthly bottomI am long Soybeans here, I think we can see a monthly bear trap from here onwards.
There is a daily uptrend signal, yet to be confirmed but likely to occur. I'd reccomend entering longs gradually, to ride the monthly trend.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
CADUSD: Is this a bottom for the Canadian dollar?This level might be the bottom in this pair. Trump's tariff announcement might have created a negative enough sentiment to form a bottom here.
From Zerohedge: "Canadians have had a tough time of it recently: they are getting inundated with illegal immigrants (thanks to Trudeau's welcome) and not benefitting from the wholesale emigration north that so many liberals promised if Trump was elected; housing has become unaffordable due to Chinese hot money flows encouraged by the government; the Canadian energy industry is hosed because of US shale production-driven low prices; and now the US imposes trade tariffs on another of their biggest exports."
"The determination that Canada improperly subsidizes its exports is preliminary, and the Commerce Department will need to make a final decision. In addition, the U.S. International Trade Commission will need to find that the U.S. industry has suffered injury. But even a preliminary decision has immediate real-world consequences, by discouraging importers from buying lumber from Canada."
www.zerohedge.com
To me, as a contrarian, it sounds like a good opportunity, although the odds of the trade working are low, the payoff would be significant.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCJPY: 1 year spreads are closed nowThis is an interesting phenomenon, the 1 year spreads in BTC prices have now converged. Weekly charts show $BTC can continue rallying, but it is good to take some precautions, holding equal amounts of $ETH as a hedge to it.
I'm not sure of the implications of the spread closing like this, but it might affect prices soon. Perhaps it is related to Bitfinex, since spreads closed to the upside to match prices there, despite the problems with USD funding and withdrawals at that exchange.
Interesting to keep an eye on the action from here onwards.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
XAGUSD: Bottom's in?I think we have good odds that the bottom of this correction is in for Silver. I'm long, aiming to ride the move back to the weekly range top. There's a chance to trigger a monthly rally, so don't miss this trade!
Long term stop: 15.864, short term: just under today's low, buy a new daily high tomorrow. Or risk 1 ATR under today's low if you want to buy now with a tighter stop.
If interested in my trading ideas, send me a pm for more information.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
Augur: Gnosis ICO insanity...I think that if investors jumped on GNO like they did, the market cap for $GNO can easily double. Or at least, they can close the spread between them soon. I'd reccomend selling $GNO at launch if you managed to buy some today, and buying $REP now, with the same allocation.
The level above is significant, once above, this could go considerably higher.
Don't trade this if you didn't catch the $GNO ICO. Most people couldn't so, it might not be a viable trade for most.
What I'd do is buy this one and wait for $GNO to drop after launch, to buy into it. It would have to drop significantly, after developers cash out, and it is at a fairer valuation relative to Augur.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TSLA: BTFD stupidI am watching $TSLA closely, I want to add to my long term longs on any kind of selloff, oversold dips, etc, as described in my previous publication, see related ideas. I added a guess/forecast based on the potential path way prices can follow after tomorrow.
A drop after earnings gives us a low risk opportunity to join this uptrend and try to ride it until it tops in the long term.
The quarterly signal suggests a continuous rally in it is possible, until we do hit our -rather lofty- targets.
Best of luck navigating $TSLA,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
XRPUSDT: Ripple is in a long term uptrendWe had taken long positions before this strong rally, and reentered recently. The chart implies that $XRP might break out once more during Q2. I'm holding longs, in anticipation of this rally, and waiting to add more once we do confirm the next rally. Target is around 180% upside from here in the short term, and eventually could go as high as 0.41+-, so it will be an interesting trade if it pans out favorably.
Good luck if already long, or entering now. Keep the volatility in mind to size your trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ETHETC: Watch these price targets and time targetAs much as I dislike ETC, the chart here shows some levels where price could reverse...as well as the time target expiration for the last rally in this pair. Overall, I am in favor of investing in Vitalik Buterin's project, so, from day 1 I didn't think ETC was a good thing to hold. The chart has proved me right thus far, but at one point, it might become a good 'Ethereum hedge' in case of a top in the rally.
This could coincide with the point when the monthly trend tops in ETHEUR, so it wouldn't surprise me if that's the case.
Just set some alerts here, and stay ready for updates. It might just keep going until the time expires, then we would need to revisit the chart and track progress and update the fundamentals.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDJPY: Trend is up nowI think we can be more or less sure that the trend has now turned up on this pair. I'm holding longs, although I had closed earlier, I reentered when turning up for the day today, after we made a new daily low. That was a good cue for a potential short term bottom.
I like the VIX key levels on this pair, I have talked about this in the past. For more information, check Tim West's publications.
If you're long, hold and trail stops gradually.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
SPX: Long term trends active right nowI made this chart for a student of mine, but I think it is a good idea to remind people of what the technical charts show in the long term here. The level of pessimism regarding being long stocks makes it clear that there is an uptrend at the moment. It can get you ridiculed, to mention in public that you buy stocks. People shy away from it, everyone is either in cash, or buying gold, or something else. Investing in start ups, you name it...anything BUT stocks.
We have both a yearly and a quarterly signal active at the moment. The quarterly calls for a rally to 2621.8 by Q4 2018 at least, and potential for a max target of around 3230. The yearly chart's target is 2975.7 by 2021, give or take. Keep this in mind, when blaming Trump for 'the Trump trade' or when your VIX etf longs result in catastrophic loss...you're just not trading with the trend. Big volatility spikes are an opportunity to join this trend.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
JO: Gigantic double bottom in CoffeeThis can be a long term bottom for Coffee. I will be entering longs on Monday.
The monthly chart indicates this could be a gigantic double bottom at play.
CoT data is interesting, with large speculators going flat...
I expect the low printed here to hold, if we break this week's high it'll trigger a rally.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Russell 2000: Small caps can outperform nextI'm looking at $RUT / $IWM here...The chart is setup in such a way that we could a massive breakout and a strong rally going forward. Downside risk is quite small, and if conservative, we could aim to risk 1-3 average ranges down.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XBTEUR: Long term forecast updateThis is how the Bitcoin chart looks right now. The long term uptrend is active until the end of 2017, and after that, we have an ample range of choices, with a likely consolidation or retracement starting. Once we approach or surpass the long term target on chart, we might enter a bubble phase, so it is logical to see a correction or consolidation of a large scale in Bitcoin.
I know people will hate me for saying this, I already had some people saying I was crazy when showing them this idea before publishing, but it is what the charts show. In the short term I see a 17% upside give or take, after which we may see a small correction. The rally and the break out are legit right now, so this is what makes the most sense to me currently. I hold 24% account in $BTC give or take, for full disclosure.
Best of luck, and see you at the target by year end...or higher with some luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ATH: Great technical and fundamental tradeATH offers a nice trade here, buying on dips to support. You can use a relatively tight stop, at 51.69 but, it would increase your risk. Alternatively you'd use a wider stop or no stop at all, but can't do this without knowing how to size trades correctly, and how and when/where to determine that your signal was invalidated to exit.
Good luck if you take this one.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDJPY: Bottom's in...as wellThis is an update to my previous $USDJPY publications. We are long, after averaging in for 4 days, starting the day of the exact low, with a cost basis of 108.66, holding a 33% account long position.
I think we can resume the rally, and get an uptrend of proportions similar to the one that took place after the presidential election in the US.
I'll be looking to add short term entries, applying multiple trend following proprietary strategies that we use to better leverage trends while they last. If you're already in, try to be patient and hold, after we surpass the red resistance zone we have a lot of upside in this pair.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: UpdateAfter closing in profit two days ago, I detected that the short term trend would top. Clearly I was on the right track. This dip is good to reenter and/or add. I got back in with a half position already, will keep adding gradually today and two more days after until my risk allocation is completed.
I outlined two potential guess/forecasts based on dynamics of multiple timeframes and key levels of support and resistance. You could now place a stop at 1.06024 for these new trades and old ones if still in.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: IMF key levelsEURUSD has a weekly uptrend, from a 'Time at Mode' perspective, and the sentiment is considerably negative for it lately, with the French elections starting the first round tomorrow. This weekend, the IMF meeting takes place, and it might be a very significant event for the Euro.
This week is packed with data and potential catalysts for all markets, with Mnuchin's speech in less than 2 hours from now, the IMF meetings today and tomorrow, and French elections, things will be interesting at the open. Then during the week, we have Trump's 'tax package' announcement after Wedneday, as well as the freedom caucus potentially approving the revised Obamacare repeal plan.
What is certain, is that mainstream media, sentiment, and the regular Joe will get it all wrong, sadly.
So, let's try to remain contrarian.
Best of luck and have a nice weekend.
Ivan Labrie.
Ref: www.bloomberg.com
www.bloomberg.com
"The IMFC statement reiterated pledges from October to “refrain from competitive devaluations” of currencies and to avoid targeting “our exchange rates for competitive purposes.”"
Oil: Potential bullish scenarioI think there is a fair chance that oil breaks out, maybe due to fears of war in the Middle East? Maybe due to OPEC extending production cuts, or maybe a bit of both, paired with Trump's comments of wanting a weaker dollar. I think energy positions are a good hold, and even a good chance to add to many, like $OXY, $PBR, $MPC, $PBF, to name a few.
Keep an eye out for the breakout here, if it's confirmed, $XLE will shine surely.
This would play nicely with Saudi Arabia's Aramco IPO as well, which makes a lot of sense to me.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EURJPY: Bottom's inEURJPY clearly bottomed after approaching weekly support. I think this pair will offer a good proxy for a volatility short, if that's your thing. Maybe we have a major bottom in this, a top in VIX, gold, and a strong rally off the pullback lows in $SPY.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
P.S.: don't forget to thank Haruhiko Kuroda if this works...