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ARSUSD: Hold pesos, term deposits yield 17% per yearI'd hold pesos now, personally. As part of my currency holdings. I wouldn't be in USD if possible, and would prefer other assets, like foreign currencies, EEM shares vs SPY shorts, TLT longs, gold/silver/bitcoin/ethereum, undervalued selected stocks, TSLA shares, VLKAY shares, perhaps the new COIN etf shares once they are released, Argentinian stocks on corrections or dips, names like BMA, CRES, IRSA are my favorites. I'm out of them, but looking to rebuy on dips. People are terrified, they fear a crisis, they fear the local currency and stocks, they fear Trump...Many are closing businesses they recently opened, out of fear of the government's actions but I think it's a sentiment extreme and should be faded. I remain optimistic. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
SPX: Breakdown of the downtrend, and longer term signalsSPX is getting extremely interesting, now that VIX has spiked for more than 5 points on the current market decline. I'm monitoring the decline to catch the exact bottom in the market, which I think can end up matching the bottom in oil, and the energy sector, and a great chance to add to my EEM longs too, and acquire more latin american stocks. I updated my time at mode analysis for SPX in the yearly timeframe, and there's a target at 2987usd, so, we might end up seeing that after the correction bottoms. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
5
DXY: Potentially a short hereYou can try averaging into a short position during the next 3 days, risking 3 average ranges from the last closing price, or, risk taking a tighter stop trade, ideally above 101.75 (but you could start with a half position at market). The dollar appears to be at a significant intermediate term top, but it could also remain sideways. It's worth a try in this particular juncture. Long $EEM, long Canadian dollar, Aussie, Pound, Euro, are probably good ideas. Short oil as a pair against CAD...quite a few proxies for this. These trades serve as a nice hedge to long US equities exposure too, at the same time. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYShort
by IvanLabrie
2
EURUSD: Intermediate term viewI think we can see a sharp rally back to the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode, as explained in my long term view chart. We can look to add on dips to 1.0564, with stops at 1.0505, or simply, add after each time the market moves 1 average range in profit, on setbacks. Note the triangle I highlight, constructed using the highest low before the election, the lowest high at the bottom, and the recent highest low before this last selloff in the Euro, which formed the 'Right shoulder' of our bottoming pattern. These trendlines are quite significant, so keep an eye on them for the breakout. It's viable to keep stops far from the action now, to give this setup enough time to pan out, but if you're actively trading, you can also trade around the core position, in the short term. I leave that up to your discretion, just consider the main bias here is long. We need to see 1.07396 hit within 3 days, ideally, which will probably be followed by stagnation, until we can break the 'neckline' here (happens to align with an ECB key resistance level (labeled by the green line near the recent highs.). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
SPX: Sellers trapped hereWe have a bullish signal in $SPX ahead of FOMC. I'd assume most people are bearish on the index, since they all expect a drastic reaction to an almost dead certain rate hike by the Fed (I'm not so sure they will actually raise rates this time, or if they do, that the effect will be what people expect). I'm long a few quality stocks, and recently entered positions in the Argentinian stock market index ETF, ARGT. I'd expect the 2nd target from the election low to be hit soon, roughly: 2528.50. The weekly trend has 2 weeks left, and has already exceeded its forecasted range target, but considering sentiment, Goldman's contrarian signal (downgraded stocks today), the VIX*SKEW signal Tim West discussed today in the KHL chatroom, and the technicals in the $SPX chart, I do think we can go a lot higher still. If not long, you may jump in here, risking 1-3 average ranges (14.46-43.38 points) under yesterday's low. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
5
ETHXBT: Ethereum has a weekly uptrendThe target hasn't been hit yet, but we might end up hitting it, and stalling there for some time, as I had explained in the monthly chart I posted. If you're long, look into closing margin longs on target, or if you own more than 50% account, go back to BTC to maintain equal weights in your cash account (spot, no leverage). The support here is strong, so you can probably look into going long if this support zone holds. $BTCUSD is right against resistance, derived from the ETF decision news price action. It's a good idea to short with a stop at 1190+, or simply buying $ETHXBT alternatively (if you didn't yet). We closed our margin longs on the previous bar, and now reentered. With some luck, we won't go any lower before hitting the weekly 'Time at Mode' target. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
11
ETHEUR: New ATH, breakout confirmed by proprietary toolsThe 'Range Movement' indicator is confirming the monthly breakout in $ETHEUR, showing new all time highs in it, together with price. So far, all timeframes' signals have been coherent and bullish for $ETHEUR, and every consolidation has led to higher prices after breaking out, since I called the bottom in this instrument recently. Let's keep an eye on it, any kind of correction, sideways pattern, oversold dips, or other setups will give profitable short term and intermediate term bullish trades. Stay ready, and keep some cash at hand to add to longs, or just trade it with margin, but don't go overboard with size. We might slow down for a while here, or a tad higher, since $ETHXBT implies we need to wait until May or even June to get more rapid upside in Ethereum. The fiat chart remains bullish in all timeframes, and indicates we might have little to worry about, holding longs, aiming to hit the long term targets (34-49-270 eur). Bitcoin's recent negative fundamental events might be helping it strengthten relative to it, and in fiat terms as well, since more and more people will opt for investing in it, considering how it fares against Bitcoin's fundamental situation and risks (PBOC regulations, blocksize debate and confllicting opinions between miners and some big investors among others). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
60
GOOGL: Rich valuation, long term uptrend time ran outI'm flat GOOGL, but seeing the valuation up here makes you wonder: How long can this momentum last? There was a long term 6-month timeframe signal that expired recently, and we now have a daily uptrend that lasts until March 22nd, with a potential target at 884 give or take. I would find it hard to short this, but I would definitely not want to own this stock up here. Some risks include the possibility that the long term uptrend signal expiration drags price back down to the mode (a lower probability event), or that after the daily time at mode signal time and price target is met, price falls back down to support, which is likely after the end of Q1. Wikileaks recently published information that puts many tech giants in the spotlight, as part of a nasty violation of privacy, and surveillance (and recklesness) worthy of an Orwellian police state...with far reaching implications, like, for instance completely nullifying 'digital evidence' in any court case. This makes me wonder: will this affect the companies involved? or will people continue to not care about their rights and security? Any agent could hide their identity, while perpetrating attacks over the internet, if they use the CIA toolset. Everything connected to the internet, is at risk of being tapped. Will this boost Bitcoin and Ethereum further? Curious to see what happens next. Let's see how this evolves... Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:GOOGLShort
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: FuturologyThis is another very prophetic post, like my ETHBTC one. I think that we will get an approval by the SEC, but, since the ETF won't bring money into Bitcoin right away, price will fall back to weekly support at 1139 give or take. Bottoming there, while big players accumulate positions, until the market is ready to trend up vigorously again. The market is likely to frustrate the most people, so, I think first, it'll spook the short sellers by going up after the news, to then fall and stop out all longs, right before bottoming for some time. My game plan, I'm holding my positions for 1 year at least, so, I'll trade around them using margin. My preferred vehicle to hedge the BTC decline is ETHXBT longs. I'll be looking to accumulate a hefty ETHBTC long position, in the order of 30%, when we have a decent enough retracement in it. It's close to weekly support, and in a weekly uptrend, with potential for a monthly rally after May, which would align with this prediction taking place, if ETHEUR rallies or doesn't fall, while BTC falls or doesn't rally as much. Reccomendations: If conservative, sell down from 50% to 20% account long in BTCUSD and do nothing. Sell also down from 50% to 20% account in ETHEUR and do nothing. Then add back on dips or if they keep trending up proving you wrong. If more brave, follow my game plan. Don't sell but hedge the decline with ETHBTC longs when safe. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
USOIL: 9 week downtrend signal, watch for support belowOil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25. Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again. I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts. Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
ETHXBT: Just a predictionI can make an informed guess on how long it will take for ETHXBT to surpass Bitcoin in performance dramatically. The monthly chart indicates we could expect a major breakout only after May, or as a worst case scenario, July. There are two possible top targets, and an estimated time duration of the rally as well. The targets are 0.095937 and 0.228555, with a rally that could last until February, 2018. I'm going to hold my positions as long term trades, and I'll continue to trade around them with margin, to make my holds risk free, and only risk part of my profit from holding the trades open all this time. I'd reccomend keeping a 50/50% weight with BTC, and perhaps if you want, investing small in some ICOs. or other alts along the way, but only with 1-5% positions at best. Focus on this and BTC, since the charts and fundamentals favor continued growth in them. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
AUDUSD: A traders' marketThe key levels on chart give an excellent idea of what's going on in $AUDUSD. My bias is the long side, so I'm buying each chance I get, on dips against support with tight stops. It's fairly easy to close in profit in a day or two most of the time. Longer term, we could be building a rally of monthly scale, but we need time to break above the resistance zone here. While buyers defend the lows, we're safe and can join them after any adverse excursion, but book partial profits each time until we really move. I'd reccomend using no stops, but sizing trades based on average true range values. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
ETHBTC: Add on dipsWe're long already, after trying to capture the bottom of this pullback and suffering a slight drawdown (our average buy is around 0.01140). The trend seems to be turning up in this chart, and it presented us with a good opportunity to hedge half of our long BTC position at least. After today's close, we could add to it on dips, so, keep an eye on it and be ready to buy ETH with BTC. I reccomend using margin, but just swapping part of your BTC for ETH is ok. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
10 Year T-Note Futures: Uptrend in motionWe have a strong uptrend signal in treasury notes and potential for a big upside move. I'm currently long $TMF, as my proxy for this move, since $TLT was lower than 10 Year Note futures, offering a more interesting risk/reward (as per Tim West's posts). Right now, I think the move to the upside is confirmed, so, if you're not in, you could look into buying either instrument on dips. Stop losses can be tight, but you're better off without one, and simply adjusting size based on volatility (1-3 times the daily ATR -11 periods- for your 'stop' distance, and thus size to fit your risk criteria). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZNH2017Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCUSD: Monitoring developments going into MarchThis is the Bitfinex chart. I'm currently using this one, due to having the highest liquidity of all exchanges. It seems like we have reached the last day of the recent daily uptrend signal we had in our charts, so we can expect a decline back to the uptrend mode, if the market is due for a breather to resume the long term rally. If BTC doesn't fall under either the uptrend speed line support, or any of the support levels on chart, we could aim to add to longs, and cover our ETHBTC longs perhaps, although I think Ethereum will simply outperform BTC, if it continues to rally. We'll have to see how things develop until March events are out of the way. Keep these levels in mind and see how the market reacts to them to act. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8