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USDSEK: Last chance to go longUSDSEK has traced a sharp decline, correcting the recent breakout. Now it appears to have bottomed against a low volume support level, so we can start to go long here. You can buy gradually over 5 days, or risk buying when price breaks above a previous day high, with stop at the lowest low here. If we happen to break down and move past 8.5479, I would be tempted to assume that the long term dollar uptrend is failing, and we can expect a massive selloff in the dollar accross the board. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCCNY: Daily uptrend intactBTC has hit the bottom of the linear regression trend, from the Bitfinex hack to the top before the PBOC news, and we can clearly see that the support held, and we moved back up for now. I wanted to see no new low after my last publication, and it already happened. The sellers indeed got trapped, and the downtrend that started on 1-11 failed. Once we see prices tread above today's high, we'll probably see a strong short squeeze rally. Longer term, I'd like to see a consolidation, proving investors are accumulating positions in this zone once again, and that we're not seeing a repeat of the 2013 top (dynamics are completely different). What I envision happening would be a repeat of the consolidation after the sharp fall that followed the initially rally that retested $500 for the first time after Bitcoin bottomed. Alternatively, we could see a shorter consolidation, before shooting up again. The exact timing doesn't have to much, since we already triggered a continuation of the initial uptrend that lead to the 2013 high, which wasn't the case in the period I reference. So, don't read too much into this, we need to see how it evolves from here, but if we stay above 5667 and march higher gradually, we'll surely see WAY higher prices in the future. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
32
XAUUSD: Gold broke the weekly downtrend speed line!Gold is acting quite bullish in the daily and weekly now, and we have different signals in higher timeframes as well. Potential upside is significant, but we need to see a few things happen next. The most immediate one is breaking above the 1241.65 resistance, and holding there. After we do that, we'd need to go up to 1289.80 and test that level, break it and hold above it. That could initiate a massive uptrend, with upside over 1800 in the long term. That could in turn, evolve into a continuation of the long term advance in gold, which would have massive upside in the cards for us. I'm holding speculative longs with a tight stop, and looking to get confirmation of higher timeframe signals. I'm long miners, CFDs and CEF. If and when we confirm the long term rally, we could be well positioned. But we'll also be ready and aware of what to look out for, to rule out the rally, and turn bearish on gold if needed. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
XAGUSD: Silver offers a buy on dipsWe have a potential long entry if Silver drops back under 17 after the market opens. A tight stop could be 16.765, and you could also use 16.444 if more conservative. The setup calls for upside to 17.63, or even up to 18.051. Keep risk under 1%, and give it a couple days from entry. The daily chart triggered an uptrend but I don't know for sure if it won't chop instead of trending again, so, don't risk too big on this trade. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPUSD: Potentially a very stupid long trade...I feel very bad about this trade, so it will probably work. Go long here, risk a drop to 1.2418, or if you want, a wider stop based on 3 times the average true range in the daily timeframe. Upside is significant, if the weekly downtrend failure target pans out. I'd look like a fool, if I follow my fundamental and technical asessment, and general 'gut feeling' about the dollar, and the dollar slumps, which is what is doing. Taking a self-contrarian stance seems like a good idea here. I'll reasess as we move forward, for now, I think the long side is safer, against all logic, but, since equities might end up correcting here, albeit briefly, this thesis becomes a bit less deranged to me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
BTCCNY: Correction happened, as expectedI graphed the average correction here, average time duration and average price range. I expect BTC to bottom, after the smart money got rid of panic buyers and converted bears who might have given up and flipped long after making new all time highs and accelerating. This played out just as I expected it, so, if you reduced your exposure to 15-20% before it, feel free to thank me, or even sign up for my services. On the fundamental side, we have a new key level here after today's close, I'll post it in comments. There were news of the PBOC implementing capital controls, and a headline today, from Bitquant's founder, who said capital fleeing China isn't really using BTC, which actually is bullish in the long term, if the reason of BTC going up isn't chinese people shuffling money out of China, since it means there's something else driving the growth, something more productive perhaps, like mass adoption, and bullish sentiment from larger investors. We're looking to establish a large position here again, and we'll do it gradually, as we get more and more confirmation that the correction is done, and that it isn't the start of a longer term decline, which I think it isn't. Seeing oversold readings in the daily is a nice boost to our confidence, and having a nice discount from the top, an interesting opportunity to add back to our long. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
50
ETHBTC: Ethereum acting strongEthereum is holding above the recent uptrend's mode, or 'accumulation level'. Despite the downside acceleration of the past few days, and rising volume, sellers are trapped again, and price is back above resistance. If it holds here, and accelerates out of this level, we'll get a second rapid uptrend leg. It could happen now, which it'd have to happen by tomorrow, or it can take a couple weeks, in which case the red bars' scenario would probably pan out. ETHBTC has a lot more room to the upside, unlike ETHEUR or ETHUSD, which demand sideways action for 2-3 months, so, this makes me think probably ETH will continually outperform BTC's advances, while both grind sideways/up. I don't think BTC will drop anymore. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
ETHEUR: Above the monthly resistanceIf Ethereum holds here and holds the uptrend speed line it could be breaking out and rallying to the target on time. If it doesn't hold the trendline and goes back under the monthly mode (blue box), it'll continue to consolidate until it has gathered enough strength to break out. The implications are bullish, so I'm holding either way, but it'd be interesting to see how the price action evolves here. Keep an eye on it, if not in, look to buy gradually over a week or two until you own 20% of your account's worth in ETH. The ETHBTC chart is promising, and has low risk, so, it'd be a good opportunity to exchange some BTC for it after the rally in Bitcoin. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
USDCNH: Update - Time at mode uptrend signalIf this signal works, we'll have a great rally into resistance, which could lead to a top, and a sideways consolidation for some time in the 6.75-7 range. I think this would align with other markets showing similar mixed signals regarding equities and the dollar, or with bonds and gold chopping around but finding buyers in the daily oversold lows. Bitcoin also paints a similar picture, potentially consolidating for a good 1-3 months in this zone where it is now. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDNOK: We've been buying for 4 days on close so far......but now it looks like the bottom's potentially in. We'd like to see a bar breaking above a previous day high (PDH), whilst not going any lower from here onwards. Price traced very clear 'Time at Mode' trends, up and down, and gave us precise indications of the direction, speed and targets for each move. Since we got to a strong weekly support, and almost hit the daily downtrend target, we could see the pair move back up to the downtrend mode at 8.5356, within 2 weeks or less. The downtrend still has until next Tuesday to expire, when it will flash an additional bullish signal, so, be careful if going long. Risking a new daily low is ok for now but I'd rather not use a tight stop yet. (I have no stop, but sized it to risk 0.5% if we drop by one average range from here give or take. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
DXY: Update - Potential bottom of the retracementDXY seems to have bottomed after correcting the post-election uptrend for some time. The 'Time at mode' signals indicate we have a bottom here, and since the top down analysis suggests we will see a massive rally in the dollar, I'm willing to maintain a long bias for the longer term. I'm long $USDNOK, $USDSEK, $USDMXN and short $GBPUSD for now, whilst flat the Euro. I might take short term longs in that pair from time to time, so I leave it for speculative shorter term setups only. I'm also long gold and miners, as a hedge for my equities and forex portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
USDMXN: Trump talked the pair down, but for how long?I'm bullish on this pair, and the dollar overall, in the longer term, but right now, we're seeing a correction in this trend. Within the next 2-3 days we can get a signal to reenter longs in this pair, so keep an eye on it. Support below is significantly strong, so it wouldn't surprise me that we bottom very soon, and see a sharp continuation of the initial 'Trump induced' uptrend in this pair. The situation in Mexico is deteriorating, and with oil potentially declining, among other factors, it would be logical to see more weakness soon. Keep an eye on it, we'll pick it up after the bottom's confirmed, it won't take long with some luck, else we'll have to rethink our FX strategy and fundamental and technical bias. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GM: Daily viewGM is an excellent company to own for the long term. That being said, outside of a core long term position in it (something like 10% is perfectly fine), we can also trade and profit from volatility, both on the long side (adding trades with trailing stops, and adding to winners) and on the short side (selling calls against our long term longs to profit from corrections). In this case, after today's news, we see that the daily has flashed a 'Time at mode' uptrend signal with a target at 39.57 that has to be hit before January 31st. Since this uptrend's time duration expires just before earnings, it might be wise to reduce your exposure to GM approaching the target, and date, or to at least hedge your downside to protect profits by selling calls. In the case of earnings sending prices way higher, this would ruin the upside, so, the alternative is to start trailing stops periodically (at least on your non-core-long term positions) to reduce risk. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMLong
by IvanLabrie
1
EURUSD: Tight stop loss longEURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's remarks as well). With these things in mind, there're big expectations going into Trump's inauguration on Friday, and the downtrend mode resistance has been breached in the daily and weekly charts here, so, upside is possible. I don't discard a selloff in the Pound, so I'd keep that short as my backup plan, but I'm taking this long here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
ETHEUR: Long term viewETHEUR is acting very strong but has faced a logical level to top at for now. What I'm interested in seeing is how the consolidation develops, and wether we go back down to 7.80 or lower after the daily 'Time at mode' uptrend signal forecasted time duration ends. If we don't, and we hold up in this zone, we could be coiling, forming an accumulation base, before moving higher, above the long term uptrend 'mode', which can take give or take 3 months. Keep an eye on the daily downtrend 'speed-line'. Currently, we have already broken above the linear regression channel top, and hit the daily 'Time at mode' uptrend signal's targets #1 and #2, so, we need to be patient. I consider it viable for ETH to break higher and resume the long term uptrend, and I have a very good entry on average at the 7.850 mark, so I'll be extremely patient and monitor how the signals develop in the short and intermediate trend, to determine if our long term idea has wings. Currently holding a 20% account position. Good luck, don't use leverage, and be patient. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13