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BTC and ETH: Time for ETH to catch upI think we can get a retrace or sideways range in BTC, or simply a way faster rally in ETHUSD compared to BTCUSD, which would bring the ETHBTC pair up more than 100% probably. I'm in a position with avg entry at 0.00805 in ETHBTC, and looking to add at 0.0083 and 0.008 next. I aim to have a 15% exposure in ETH, as well as a 15% in BTC while this rally lasts, then to revert back to BTC after we top in Ethereum. The fundamentals are still uncertain but after the next update is out, we could see renewed interest in investing in this instrument. For now, it's not too popular, but it has good liquidity again, and some interesting moves, as well as a fantastic spread, so it is worth a try here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
1000 USD per BTC: 7000 cny per coin should hold for a whileAt least until the next PBOC devaluation comes (and it is likely to come, specially after the Chinese New Year), I see 7000 per coin as the price Bitcoin will hover around for a few weeks. This coincides with catching up to USDCNH, if we divide BTC's price by 1000. I reccomend a 15 to 30% long term position in Bitcoin, you can rebalance this periodically, or add funds as your net worth increases each month, with your money destined to savings. Let's keep an eye on prices and the activity leading to the 28th of January. It is probable to see some kind of sideways action next, so, I'll be looking to profit from short term weakness if it happens. Else, I'll just hold long term longs in place and wait. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
2
USD longs: P&L and max drawdown YTDLet's take a look at the most interesting USD long ideas. I favor the following pairs: USDMXN USDNOK USDSEK USDEUR USDGBP USDCNH USDJPY USDTRY These have strong trends, and fundamental reasons to continue trending higher and steadily. We can take trades in the basket I present here, but we don't need constant exposure to all the pairs. Being selective with the FX positions, and the combined size will be vital to achieve profitability in the long run. If you're trading the same idea, with the same sizes, technical entries, and stops, you're basically multiplying your risk. I have come to determine that a swing trading and position trading strategy is more suitable with my personality, and also, a good way of riding trends without having big risks initially, but, on the contrary, increasing exposure gradually while the trades prove us right. Right now, we see that USDMXN, USDGBP and USDTRY are the most volatile, and the ones with the biggest advance YTD, with more than 20% progress. USDJPY and USDNOK are down for the year, but had a massive recovery after the presidential elections in the US. In fact, on a time vs price basis, USDMXN, USDGBP and USDJPY sport the sharpest advances in all of these pairs. So, I'd say that the trend is bullish without a doubt, despite being in the red on some pairs, for the year. We can also observe the type of consolidations and volatility, to determine which pairs we want to approach in which way, this will be critical in ensuring your chosen trading strategy is suitable for trading each pair, or when to favor a specific trading style, on which pair, and when to simply stay put until conditions are favorable. This type of observation will be vital for FX traders. It also puts thing in perspective, and is the type of analysis that some instutions or hedge funds might do, when looking at assets, performance, volatility, drawdown YTD, on a monthly, quarterly, weekly, daily basis, etc. We can see that, the top dogs are: USDMXN and USDGBP, on a p&l YTD and max drawdown basis, with 20.59% and 20.03% advance, and a small drawdown of less than 1% and 1.85% respectively. So, we might see that these pairs see a continuation of the advance going into year end. Hope you find this helpful, if you have questions or comments leave them below. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
8
Global update: I'm out of most equity positions for nowExcept for $NVDA short and $RVLT long. You can see how these fared against $SPY this year. I'm anticipating a breakdown in $NVDA, and maybe some kind of correction in $SPY, which would give us a lot of great opportunities next year, so, for now, I take my modest profits in equities home for the year and let these two running. I'm in BTCCNY, RVLT, NVDA short, USDSEK, USDTRY, USDNOK, EURUSD short, USDJPY for the time being, and will look to reenter my other positions next year. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by IvanLabrie
4
Short term risk off move starting?I think we'll see some kind of retracement in the massive trends we had in place accross the board. Overall, I'm looking to buy weakness in the dollar in the long term, and looking for good value stocks, shorting overvalued stocks if needed, but rarely, and navigating the main trends in commodities. Metals look poised to rally with bonds here, at least in the short term, so having some exposure there might be a good idea. Either that, or hedging your equity exposure for the time being. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
XAGUSD: Silver might initiate a retracement soonIf you want, you can take the long side, but I anticipate it will be disappointing, IF it bottoms here for a couple weeks. It's possible a retracement in a downtrend starts, but it's not 100% clear just yet. If over the next 5 days we don't make any new daily low, it'll be confirmed, and might produce a similar price action to the previous retracements. Taking the long side, you can buy gradually over 5 days, starting today, with a stop under today's low, aiming to risk a total of 0.5-1% once you have a full position after this time passes. Good luck, and Merry Christmas. Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSD
by IvanLabrie
5
USOIL: Uptrend failure is possibleOil's uptrend has been relentless but the advance slowed down to a grind lately, approaching areas of key resistance, where usually supply swamps demand to date. Fundamentals favor the downside here, and I think it's logical to expect a sell off, as OPEC's deal fails to surmount the sale of the US' Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that was recently announced, as well as a pro-US shale, pro-exploration in Alaska, etc. President Trump. This also happens to hurt Russia and their currency, which would be something I'd expect to see favored by the US, to slow down Russia's momentum strategically, at this crucial point in time. But hey 'Didn't Trump praise Putin?', well yes, but: www.zerohedge.com Despite what the narrative and the rhetoric is, actions of the different actors speak louder, the thing is being able to figure out when fundamentals and logic start to matter more than momentum and social mood. Let's keep an eye on oil around here, if it doesn't hit the target I labeled on chart in time, it's likely to sell off. A move under support, will see oil drop to the levels below as signaled on the chart. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
USDEUR: Short the Euro every day, for 1 weekSplit your position size in equal sized parts, and enter longs gradually against the Euro. The EURUSD pair is the one most people trade, so, it'd be an EURUSD short, but I wanted to show people how the uptrend in the dollar/euro cross looks to prevent biases. We have 5 days without a new high, and a new low under the previous 3 days' range. This is a good excuse to start entering longs againt the Euro here. You can enter 0.03 lots, per every 10k in your account, gradually, and ramp it up if it drops a bit more, as long as it doesn't drop too much (more than a 229 pips climb in EURUSD). Once we're in profit we can start adding and tightening stop losses. For now, I'm not using stops, simply adding gradually, for as long as the trade remains valid. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
6
NZDCAD: Potential uptrend continuation trade$NZDCAD offers a low risk buy opportunity here. You can establish a position buying gradually at the close of each day until Friday's close. Position size should be 0.15 lots per every 10k in your account more or less. A stop loss is detrimental, but we want to see the low hold for a week here. Potential upside is considerable, so it's worth taking this trade as a nice alpha source in your portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
USDSEK: UpdateWe have reentered longs on this dip back to the FOMC/Rate hike key level support. I'm buying a position gradually for a couple more days, so far, I have fills at 9.1643 and 9.2085, which will constitute my reentry to ride the long term uptrend here. My trading plan lets me increase position size and reduce stops gradually, until the trend takes me out if it starts retracing, after which I wait to reenter at the end of the corrections. Risking a drop under today's low is probably good, but also a bit aggressive for now. If it were to get oversold, we would have a bit less risk with tight stops, so for now, I risk 3 average ranges down from my avg. entry price. I'll gradually add, and eventually trail stops up in profit, and continue to add as per the plan if the trend remains up. When markets are trending strongly, we can make a lot of money, so, make sure to not miss the moves here. See related ideas for more information on this pair's signals. If interested in learning more, contact me via pm here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7
AUDUSD: Longer term charts might indicate a downtrendThere's a discrepancy between timeframes in $AUDUSD, with the daily recently turning into a downtrend, after suggesting buying dips was viable all year; the weekly in an uptrend, and close to fail to confirm bearish momentum within 2 weeks; and the monthly indicating a full flung downtrend is en route, and it should eventually achieve the 0.63111 mark by or before the end of December 2017. In the short term, the daily chart despite indicating bears are in control, might indicate a retracement or sideways consolidation is about to start, specially viable after we hit the second target, and/or when time for the daily downtrend runs out by January 3rd. RgMov warns you in the daily, if you wish to go long to catch a retracement, because price might just go sideways, chopping buyers and sellers out for a while, so it will be easier to take the sell side only, either after an overbought rally in the daily, or after a sideways consolidation ends. (I prefer to do nothing for now, but, if you're interested in going long, you can try to buy a new daily high, risking a drop under last week's low) Good luck, Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Intraday update, short term dip during ChristmasChinese traders typically perpetrate some strange moves during public holidays, and today is no exception, we already saw a sharp decline after yesterday's strong advance. This dip is a short term buying opportunity, so, thank you OKCoin. Let's buy over the next 3 days, gradually. I already bought 15% at 6375 and will add 15% more around here, and looking to add the remainder of my position if we go lower ideally. The buy zone is highlighted in green on chart. I don't reccomend setting stop loss orders, simply size the trade to reach a maximum of 80% of your capital once your position is full. That should keep you out of harm 99% of the time. That said, we don't want to see price drop under 6102.29, if it does, it could go a tad lower and test weekly support levels below. If we don't hit 7047 before the week closes, we might see price go sideways, but, for now, we need to focus on the present, which is screaming buy (gradually). Good luck and Merry Christmas, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
17
KSS: Getting good to buy it back againI'm watching $KSS here, I'd like to buy as close to support as possible. There's an interesting time/price juncture below, where the bottom of the uptrend's linear regression channel meets both the Key Earnings Level, as well as the uptrend speedline support, making it an ideal spot to buy. This also happens to coincide with a potential bearish range expansion failure, where today's decline would fail to validate the bearish momentum, giving way to a good buy setup. Risk a drop under $46.40-$42.40 initially, and buy a 10% position gradually during a week or two. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:KSSLong
by IvanLabrie
USDCNY: The trend that keeps on givingI'd like to bring your attention to the $USDCNY monthly chart here. If we examine previous levels of support and resistance, and analyze price action using Tim West's methods, we could conclude that the uptrend in this pair, and logically, the one in Bitcoin, has still ample upside in its future. It would be logical to observe 19% more upside in $USDCNY, and 760% more in $BTCCNY, if we maintain the current uptrend speed, which is yet to be seen. For now, we can look to fade short term and intermediate term selloffs in these instruments, with considerable comfort, and a rather high win rate. My preference is to hold bitcoin positions, but we can speculate on both instruments, and also in smaller timeframes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
EURUSD: Downtrend activeEURUSD is tracing a downtrend for a good while now, and after FOMC, a new downtrend signal got activated, suggesting the pair will decline significantly in the next two weeks. Watch the targets on chart for a potential retracement, or at least, the start of a sideways pattern before trending down (or reversing). If we mive back above 1.063, the bearish case will be a flop. You can take any intraday short signal to rejoin the larger timeframe downtrend here, but the daily isn't giving an appropriate entry here, only a viable hold if you're already short. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
5
NVDA: Short in 3 days on closeI'm looking to short $NVDA here, but need further confirmation of the top. If we get a smaller range day today, and we see a new daily low after that, or if we get a new daily low right away tomorrow, I'll short a half position then, risking $10.86 per share. I'll start building a position after tomorrow's close if the range is smaller than today's, and spread the selling over 1-2 weeks. Alternatively, if we see that within 3 bars, price doesn't hit 107.97, we'll get a low risk short signal, which would be a good confirmation of our fundamental thesis. You can check out the post by @michaelgoldin on the subject, he spotted this trade during one of our conversations at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by IvanLabrie
4
WST: Outrageous valuation, Time at mode signals a top is in placWe can short $WST without much difficulty here. Short at the open and risk either a new daily high, or use no stop and size the trade based on 0.5-1% exposure, considering a $4.83 risk per share. Target on chart, but, keep in mind this can evolve into a longer term downtrend here as well due to the valuation the company has up here. It's practically a bubble, once it pops it'll get ugly, and fast. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:WSTShort
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
NZDUSD: Update, topping pattern, and weekly time at mode targetsWe're in this short now, and looking to add in the next 3 days. It is possible that we're seeing the resumption of the sharp downtrend that started after the US Presidential election created a solid LOW in the dollar and US equities. This could be the first 'wave 3 or C' after the first 1/A down. Since the first move was so sharp, it is possible the post pattern requirement of the end of a complex corrective structure is at play. The price action is reminiscent of a topping pattern here, and we have confirmation from RgMov showing the trend is mainly down now, so, fading overbought rallies results in good trades for the most part. Weekly Time at mode analysis gives ample downside here, but there is a caveat: watch the low volume support zone, it might make this downtrend fail, if the prognostication isn't correct, resuming the upside chop again. Once we're below that zone, we can look to book some profits, or simply trail stops after adding more to the position to increase our odds of conserving our profits. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
PBF: In an uptrend, buy dipsI'm looking to reenter PBF at support near the 27.55 mark. I've highlighted my recent trades in the chart, showing my exits and reentries. I'm adept at working like this instead of holding during corrections. I anticipate the turns based on price action around key levels, and the application of Tim West's 'self contrarian' signals that we use to time exits in good profits, or trail stops and add to positions. What we do is constantly asessing our own emotions regarding our positions, specially the winning ones, since this gives us a great edge in finding good profit taking zones, and determining when to reenter positions. I'd reccomend buying a position gradually near the 27.55 mark, starting as soon as Monday would be ok, but ideally the correction will last until December 14th which is what I estimate. I'd reccomend opening a 7% size position if we hit 27.55, and you can look to add once in profit confirming the rally. Entering over a week would be better. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PBFLong
by IvanLabrie
2
BTCCNY: Daily view updateThe weekly BTC chart has failed to reach a 'momentum validation target' in time at the close of last week, but the chart remains bullish, showing the uptrend is in progress still. We have added back to our long position at 5350 give or take, and we aim for 6530 to 7390 to bank some of our trades. There is time to hit these targets until January 15th, but in the short term, we don't want to see price go lower than 5369.53, if we do, we should keep a hard stop at 5145.08. If you have buys from way lower prices, keeping a 15% account sized position will be a good idea in the long term. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
32