AVHI: Good valuation and potential weekly uptrend continuationAVHI has a very interesting chart, here, and valuation is very good. We can look to establish a position here, aiming for a resumption of the weekly uptrend within 2-3 weeks.
Entering at market open, risking 0.5% on a decline to 14.37 is a great longer term entry in this stock.
Once we have some progress we can look into trailing stops and adding to the position gradually.
This is a good chance to gain exposure to the sector, so don't miss it.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Keyhiddenlevels
ETHXBT: Potential trend reversalAs you know, we have been buying ETH in the past few days, and now we have good evidence that a bottom is in place. Longer term charts are showing that we need to hit 0.007297 to confirm bearish momentum. The gist is this needs to happen during December and January, which I don't think will happen at all.
Good luck if holdings,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie
ETHEUR: Update - Longs viableWe can take the long side here with low risk. Size it to fit 0.5 to 3% risk, if price drops against you by 1.9 euros.
Each coin you buy, your risk is 1.9 eur basically. For example, if your account is worth 10k Eur, you can buy a maximum of 157 ETH, which I'd reccomend you buy over a week or two, entering gradually. Split the purchase between a few days, amp up the size on drops, until you have a full position, if not, simply add the same amount gradually. A good time to buy is earlier in the day (5am in Shanghai), which usually aligns with the start of chinese activity in BTC, each day.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
COST: Buy out of the money calls for a monthWe have a pretty low risk trade here. You can look to buy way out of the money calls for dirt cheap after the earnings report for $COST. Upside is crystal clear. Even though this stock isn't such a good value pick, as say, $KSS (which has been nothing short of amazing so far), it's still a good contender to catch up to the retail rally it's been lagging.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCNH: Pullback's done hereUSDCNH appears to have completed a correction and is ready to resume the uptrend here.
This bodes well for Bitcoin longs as well.
If you want to take the trade, risk a drop to 6.8374, or enter gradually over a few days, risking a bigger move down.
The other alternative is to dial down to 1h charts to take the trade, or simply buy a new daily high, with a stop at the recent low. In the current enviroment, I don't favor using stops at all, and start with smaller positions, due to the 'expanding bias' where markets go a bit further than expected, or take a little longer to turn, each time. If you have tight stops, you'll get chopped out multiple times.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDJPY: Inside daysThe market seems to be awaiting news, since we have two days in a row, contained by a previous day's true range. This has only happened 12 times since the top in 2015, so you can tell that the market awaits major news to decide on direction, or resume the pace it had. Price action until we break out of this range might be erratic, so don't caught up trying to navigate the murky intraday noise waters and focus on the big picture here.
Just a heads up. Check the news calendar, and then trade.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCAD: Short activeUSDCAD has given good confirmation here, we can expect follow through to the downside asap.
The terminal pattern I had spotted might have completed today and would be a great oil proxy trade.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TWTR: Weekly uptrend still viable, target is 29.13Expanding the analysis, this is what I'm looking at in TWTR right now.
We're already in the long, and adding a bit more next week.
It's possible that TWTR confirms a weekly 'Time at Mode' uptrend signal, which would propel it (probably due to acquisition talks again) to the target on chart.
The cue is when we see price hit 20.01 during this week, probably after earnings, or some news regarding bids.
I'd reccomend either buying calls out of the money, or selling puts at the money, or trading bull call spreads, or owning stock, but be careful with the amount you buy (risk is $3,21 per share bought, stop losses aren't viable).
You can buy puts to protect your downside here, or short calls once we go higher from here as well, but not for now.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
GBPUSD: Long term decline analysisThis is the long term outlook for GBPUSD, we can see that the signal here has been working well, and although I had initially identified it as a quarterly signal, it belongs to a higher timeframe to correctly portray the activity in it according to the 'Time at mode' methodology.
For now, we'd have to wait for this year to end to judge the future shorter term targets to validate the bearish momentum, but we can already keep the target in mind, to flip long after covering any short we have once hit, or if the time expires, or, to identify long term resistance levels to short against on rallies.
The daily chart tells us to wait, and so does the weekly for now, so, I'll keep an eye on it to short rallies, or the confirmation of a lower timeframe 'Time at mode' downtrend signal like the one in related ideas.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ABMD: Update - Good chance to reenterABMD has responded well to my forecast and trade idea, as you can see in related ideas. We rallied and retested support here, so I expect to see a rally coming out of the dip.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
F: Ford is cheap, make America great againFord won't relocate their Kentucky factory to Mexico it seems. I think Ford is just really cheap here, and it doesn't look like a bad buy at all, against this support, so, take a 2% stake, sit back and relax.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDMXN: Uptrend continuation hereUSDMXN has fired a nice buy signal here, so we can enter gradually over a couple days.
If it doesn't move back down under yesterday's open, we can expect significant upside to emerge from here.
The fundamental key levels will tell you what prices will probably do with good accuracy. Please refer to my educational chart on the subject, or ask, for more information.
Going long USDMXN here is a good idea overall, since it acts a bit like a hedge against SPX during risk off events.
Good luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
CUBI: Buy a stake hereRisk is very small, you can go long here at market, upside is considerable in this very accumulated stock.
CUBI is a small but profitable bank with low risk and good potential.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SPY: Weekly analysisSPY shows a new 14 week uptrend signal here, confirmed on close this week. The current price action suggests that we should see 226.18 hit within 1 week, to maintain this pace, else we might stall or pullback for a while before resuming the move up. Note that there is no inminently bearish element, despite what most people think (...people that have been trying to sell this all the way up).
Right now, the weekly signal aims for a target slightly higher than this validation I level I mentioned, at 227.47, and we're almost hitting the first signal that got confirmed after the downtrend failed after the election. The blue box shows the downtrend signal that had confirmed 1 week before the election, for those curious, and the failure, with prices coming back above the mode, or most frequent price level from the top, triggered a short squeeze rally that pointed to $222. The last weekly uptrend signal can technically last until either we hit 227.47, or expire by February 24th, 2017.
In the background, you can see the long term uptrend signal target, at $251.18 to be hit by or before July 2018.
How do we trade this? If we close December up, we can easily expect to buy any dip on January/February. If we get a dip soon, we can take a shorter term entry again, but there's no entry yet. December FOMC might give us an entry on a decline, but we'll have to wait and see. Right now, I'd reccomend waiting, but don't close your active longs in profit, in equities.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TSLA: Confirmed weekly longWe're already long TSLA, but now we have valid incentives to take a weekly long, specially good if you missed our early bird entry at 184 give or take. The weekly trend is shown to be up, as per the RgMov indicator, and we have a clear pattern where we broke back above the correction 'speed line' which is now holding as support, as well as having buyers step in at previous low volume levels.
All of this shows underlying strength, and considering our oil forecasts, and the SCTY merger with no one thought would happen, and last but not least, the % of the float that is short, we can expect a rapid and large short squeeze rally here. If not long, you my enter at market, or on dips, with stops under 178.19, or take a longer term style trade, buying a 2-5% account stake over the course of a few days. (I think it's a bit late for that, but not terrible).
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
EUFN: European financials are in danger hereI think we can get a retracement in the financial sector, and Europe is in worse shape than the US in general. It wouldn't surprise me to have some negative news pop out, surrounding Italy's referendum, Deutsche Bank, Italian Banks, UK banks, Brexit, etc. Quite a few potential catalysts for volatility, so, if we see this ETF break the linear regression channel support, we will probably see a rapid selloff.
Keep your eyes open, it might be safer to stand aside, and book succesful long trades, or maybe even take a couple strategic shorts.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
UCO: Buy at the openUCO has an interesting setup to go long at the open, ideally if we make a new daily low here. We can enter at the open, but it'd be nicer if we hit 8.91, risking a drop to 8.35.
Upside is considerable, and this ETF uses up half the cash compared to UCO, so it's a good vehicle to ride the post-OPEC meeting rally -if correctly diagnosed-.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
CEF: Good chance to go longSame setup as XAUUSD, see related ideas. This one's specially good for people trading equities.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USOIL: Daily view, linear regression and range movement analysisIn this chart I graph the linear regression channels that correspond to each leg in this trend. The trend is mostly up, and it's likely that we're seeing the start of the next major uptrend leg here, since we have found huge buying when retesting the bottom of the long term linear regression channel. Technicals are bullish, without even factoring the fundamentals.
The yearly SMA matched this spot, as well as the lowest volume level since the bottom in oil, which is a really strong support, so bearish thesis had to be discarded. Factoring in global demand vs the production cut, the dynamics of supply and demand confirm this idea, and we have strong arguments for holding longs.
Additionally, range movement, Tim West's proprietary trend analysis and sentiment analysis tool, shows that we had 2-2.3 point drops in RgMov on each correction in the uptrend, and that's what happened here, so, the sentiment declined enough to form a bottom.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDCAD: Good chance to go longWe can enter longs here, risking a new low under yesterday's low, or 260 pips down if more conservative.
If you use a wide stop, you can add to the trade gradually over a few days until you reach 1% risk total with the same stop.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold/Stocks ratio: Risk off rally?It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough.
Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted.
What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle).
You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system.
Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BABA: Good short setupBABA is currently in a downtrend, and it has a good while before price to sales reaches a more sane level, at least until it hits 77.65 or so. There's a 'Time at mode' downtrend signal that got triggered last Thursday, and we shorted on the pullback on Friday. I bought out of the money puts and bought a put spread to reduce costs on my bearish stance. Risk is 1% overall, and aiming for a nice return here.
If you wish to join, you can either trade it with options, in a variety of ways, or simply short the shares using the reccomended stop loss for position size (you don't need to actually place the order).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDSEK: Close to giving a chance to rejoin the long term uptrendUSDSEK is flashing a sell signal here, but the longer term timeframes are in an uptrend, this makes for a great place to look for longs. I'm monitoring the price action to reenter longs gradually until the 14th close, aiming to risk 1% overall, if price were to drop under my stop. For now, if you wish to buy, you can enter here but risk would be bigger, so keep position size small enough to tolerate a 2883 pip decline from here.
Once we approach the downtrend time and price target, we'll start to see price action show signs of reversal and that's when we can amp up the size and tighten stops after it's safe. I'd rather not have a stop or have a wide one until then.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
