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CLF2017: Oil futures updateWe have closed half higher, near the high of the day, and now stop is at entry price. It might take a while to proceed higher, so there is no rush, simply hold the position for the time being. If you want, you can short calls against it until January but you would defeat any possible upside to come. I did reccomend shorting call options for the $OXY trade though, and here we just close half for now. We need to see how price action evolves from here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLF2017Long
by IvanLabrie
EURNZD: Good buy on strengthI'd reccomend against using stop losses here, you may go long on strength after the close. Risk is $3000 per standard lot if entering here. We can aim for a retest of the election highs at least.Risk 0.5-1% buying over a few days. Seeing a new low here isn't good but it might take a while to get going, so I'm open to that happening. The price action is a bit more erratic between December and February in FX, so I'll be trading smaller positions with wide stops or no stop, entering gradually as prices confirm the analysis, not all at once. I'd reccomend this to people to reduce risk. Add to the trades that start to work, else, you have small risk at first. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Italian referendum - News breakdownIn this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today. The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out. I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...). I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think). Good luck today, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSD
by IvanLabrie
18
ETHEUR: Go long at marketI think ETH has fallen enough here. The euro value of it will turn around, since it has hit the levels associated with the Bitfinex hack. If it doesn't go to 5.96710 within the next 2 months, we could see a monthly scale rally in it, probably due to a change in fundamentals. It's good to see buyers step in here, so, it only takes an increase in activity, and some fundamental news to stage a rally. It's oversold enough, potentially. If you want to buy, you can risk a drop to 5.9671 and enter a 0.5-1% risk long here. Weekly charts show an uptrend, so on any new weekly high, we could see a rally take off. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: UpdateI think Gold has bottomed here, so, after today's close, we can buy a 0.5% risk position, with stop loss 1 tick under today's low. To be safe, don't place the stop, but watch it. Position size should be based on this, or if conservative, daily volatility. So, two options: Buy a new daily high, after today's daily close, Risk 0.5% if price moves under today's low. Buy a 0.5% risk position, risking a 58 dollar drop from here. Add another position with the same size tomorrow. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
SPX: Potential pullback starting, let's watch 2150I think we'll see a retracement next, but I'm not sure about calling for a downtrend in the longer term here. Although fundamentals favor a rally overall, uncertainty over many global events, and proximity to the end of the year, might trigger profit taking, which would drive SPX lower, at least to 2170. If this level doesn't hold, we might test the linear regression channel support, and possibly lower levels, but it's hard to say before hand. It's safer to simply focus on reacting to the key levels and price action in the present. If we don't drop under the election's open, or wost, under the election's daily low, I wouldn't worry too much, but for now, I remain vigilant. I'm shorting a few stocks, booking profits in some longs, and trading the risk off leg using FX and commodities mostly. Shorting SPX is valid, to a certain extent, but there are better vehicles to trade this move. Good luck, and watch the key levels on chart to pick the bottom here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
10
USOIL: Intraday viewUSOIL has rallied after the dip that started last Friday bottomed against support. Like I explained in my futures chart, shorts could get trapped if price were to move above the level I labeled in it, and, moving above Friday's close, would warrant a long trade too. The long trade idea is working, and now we're faced with a few possibilities going into the OPEC meeting. Two things can happen: If price doesn't gain momentum and break above 48 within the next 3 hours, we could see it drop back to support at 46 give or take. This would warrant a buy as well, risking a new daily low perhaps. On the other hand, if price moves above 48 soon, and stays there on close, then we can probably get a breakout trade, a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily timeframe, taking off after the OPEC meeting is out of the way (this is probable, but I'd rather buy more on dips). If you're flat, wait for a dip to enter against 46 give or take, or, wait for the breakout trade signal...or short $USDCAD at market with a half position, and stops above at least 1.35125 (or higher) and be willing to add after today's close, if we get a retracement over 1.3450 with the same stop. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
20
AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided. Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish. The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information. Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
Ethereum: how altcoin bull markets usually die...Ethereum looks really bad, and without any fundamental catalyst, the best trade here is "no trade". I think it's due for a long term decline, based on the 3-week timeframe signals, we could see some buying when we hit the 0.0075 mark, give or take. It appears as if it's simply drifting down, on low activity, due to lack of any developments, and investors giving up, and simply accepting any fill to get out of this market. Fills are rare, as you can see in the volume graph, so, it creates this slow drift to the downside, with smaller and smaller bar ranges. I hope no one is long this here, and if you do, I'd assume you're insider cause, as of today, there's no reason to buy it. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4