BTCCNY: Daily viewBTCCNY has a longer term uptrend, but here I'm looking at the daily linear regression channels we can draw on each swing. If you extend the lines, after a high pivot happens, you can see where price can bounce, to maintain the uptrend progress. The pink arrows show this, and the channel changes with any high pivot that is broken on retest.
I think we have a chance to get action like the green pathway implies, but I'm open to a larger consolidation or even a pullback lower, so I'll react to whatever happens next.
For the time being I know where to place my stop if I get a buy agains the support zone between 4953 and 5102: 4805.26. This is a weekly level though, and we also need to wait for one more week to determine if the uptrend speed is sufficient to keep this pace, else we'll see a correction for some time.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Keyhiddenlevels
EURCAD: Support at the Brexit daily lowEURCAD has found support at the lows of the day corresponding to the Brexit vote, so it's logical to expect a rally from here, back to the top of that day's range, which also nicely matches the highest volume zone, and the low of the Trump election day. This is a very critical zone, so, look to exit longs there and leave this pair be. We're better off shorting the Euro against the dollar once it tops.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders.
Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XAGUSD: 2-month timeframe and weekly timeframe analysisWe have an interesting juncture in Silver here. Next week, if we don't hit 16.075 on close, bear momentum validation will have failed, giving us a buy signal. This happens to match the time expiration of the recent 9 week downtrend signal, which has already exhausted it downside potential ahead of time.
If we don't hit 14.881, the long term chart has a potential buy on any drop below 16.412, so it becomes increasingly interesting to go long Silver with this confluence of technical setups in multiple timeframes.
Now, the uptrend signals in lower timeframes, might lead to longer term selling by big players, and if that's the case, we could be seeing longer term downtrend continuation, but that remains yet to be seen. What we could glean so far from activity, is that commercials are long term bearish, and whenever they tip the scale too much towards net short positions, silver and gold break down massively, crushing the gold bugs hearts.
I think it's not possible to have a long term reversal, before all of them give up, but it hasn't happened yet, and it's unthinkable almost, to see people give up on gold and silver, so I always remain skeptical with long term buys in metals for this reason.
Good luck riding the shorter term waves here,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: Small long active, adding if we get strengthI think we can get a significant retracement in the Euro until December at least, so I'm currently long from 1.0534, risking a drop to 1.0397, and will look to manage the position and add to it on strength.
The key levels here illustrate where to monitor for a reaction on retests, and can give you an idea of what to expect.
After today's close, if we get a smaller range day, we could look to add to longs on strength, or alternatively, wait for 3 daily bars to confirm the bearish momentum has faded. I'll be monitoring it and updating this chart once I add to longs. Once the rally is done, I think we will be able to resume the long positions in the dollar, against the SEK and JPY in particular, but possibly against the Euro as well. We'll have to wait and see, but for now, my preferred shorts are SEK and JPY, once viable.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend updateI highlighted the weekly support buy zones we have had in the past, as well as the curretly active one.
The 8h setup I pointed at might not work with a tight stop, but it's still good to hold longs from 4950-5100 overall. Just make sure your risk, if adding new positions is 1-2% max, if price were to go against you and hit 4805.26. It really shouldn't, to conserve the uptrend speed and achieve 5710.74 on time. If we don't hit this level before December 12th, then Bitcoin might endure a correction which could be a pullback, or simply lack of activity and a slow sideways drift again, before more upside is attainable.
Fundamentals would have to get in line, but for now, technicals give us comfort in long positions. Watch the linear regression channel support, watch the moving average on chart, we shouldn't see a close below them, and we should hit the target we have here on time. Also, watch the speed line on chart, which indicates the minimum required pace the uptrend has to keep to remain valid, all of these tools tell us when to expect a correction.
The only thing is that which we can't know in advance what the price behavior will be after it starts, so, we'll have to react and not predict too far in the future.
Long term target remains above 7000, based on weekly signals, and there's a longer term timeframe signal pointing way higher as well, so, there's no need to fear long trades, as long as we time the entry correctly, they will reward us handsomely.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Disclosure: I hold long positions with no leverage, nor stop losses, that equate to 55% of my account value currently, all in profit, except for the last entry at break even or minor loss. I have been buying and selling dips, to book profits and allow me to keep risk free holds.
EURUSD: UpdateWe're already positioned with longs from 1.0534 and 1.0585, and now all stops at 1.0518. The levels on chart suggest that we could expect to hit the zone I highlight with the translucid orange box on chart, between low volume resistance from the weekly and the lows of the Brexit and election days.
Once we hit this level, I intend to flip short, or at least reenter my long term USDJPY and USDSEK long trades.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
GBPUSD: Time at mode uptrend might give us a great short soonGBPUSD has an interesting chart here, with very clear resistance levels and a stop loss level for short trades. We will be looking to short the top of the current uptrend, to rejoin the long term decline in the Pound.
I think the uptrend is doomed from the get go, being a pullback in a downtrend, so, I will look to fade the rally when safe.
The chart shows a potential signal that could take price to the vicinity of 1.2830, but, there is a massive supply level at 1.2767 that could make the uptrend fail. Look for shorts above 1.2767 ideally, you can take a long term position and spread the selling over multiple days, using the stop on chart. If the analysis is correct, we'll get more confirmation for a precise technical short entry soon, for now, wait for updates here, and watch it. Going long isn't reccomended, although this will probably rally while EURUSD retraces.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDJPY: Long term viewUSDJPY might have resumed the long term uptrend from the 2011 lows, so we will be looking to buy back in, after closing longs in profit for now. Watch the overhead resistance levels and study this chart. I'll update it periodically.
I'd reccomend against shorting this, and would rather focus on long gold and euro, and/or Aussie.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
ps: the outlook is bullish for equities, and long term bullish for the dollar.
NZDUSD: Sell the top of the rallyNZDUSD has an interesting setup here. RgMov has now changed direction showing the trend is potentially down, so it might be safer to sell it at the top of the ongoing correction, to rejoin the recently started downtrend. This makes me think gold and the Euro will behave similarly, which is what I had originally thought. The dollar long term uptrend might have resumed before our eyes, and we're seeing the first correction in daily scale, so don't miss it!
I'll be looking to short against a key level, once price action favors it, so, for the time being I'm standing aside and watching. We have enough trades to go long during the dollar correction.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
NZDCAD: Moving up from hereWe have a very nice trade opportunity here. Price has found support at the highest activity level in the current uptrend, which means it has good odds of turning up from here. NZDCAD has a good uptrend continuation setup. You may take long trades here or on dips. Stops should be under 0.9441 at least. The trend is up, and ready to resume the move to new highs.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Canadian Dollar Key technical levelCanadian dollar at a 2 week support level, in terms of shorter term counter trend, this could be a good buy level targeting the 61.8 Fibonacci extension as possible resistance, however looking at the larger trend, if price were to break support- look for a larger continuation to downside.
BTCCNY: 8h RgMov trade setupThe 8h chart shows a nice buy opportunity on a break of the last bar's high after the close. The RgMov indicator shows the trend is up, so buying pullbacks is always a good idea.
I'm adding a 25% position here, and adding 25% more on a break of this bar's high, targetting a retest of the 5350+- zone. There's also a chance that we break the highs, triggering a short squeeze rally, after forced liquidation of the short sellers.
I labeled previous buy setups like this one on chart, to give you an idea of the effectiveness of the method in this timeframe. If you're interested in learning more about how I trade, don't hesitate and send me a pm for more information.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XAGUSD: Low risk buy hereIf we're stopped, we'll have a chance to go long lower, but let's try here first.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Small swing long initiated at today's openI'm monitoring price action here, I think we can add to longs after today's close, buying into new daily highs with half position, and tightening my initial entry stop to today's low, on close.
For now, we need to wait patiently for the daily close, and then we can add with comfort.
If not in, wait for the close and buy as indicated.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: Wait for Draghi's speech and maybe for the daily closeWe should be seeing a turn in the Euro very soon. I'm already long with a wider stop and looking to add to longs. I advise caution today, the market is awaiting Draghi later today. We're overbought in 4h, and RgMov shows bearish sentiment in this timeframe (contrary to daily and weekly bullishness), so a new low could trigger selling in the short term.
What I'd like to see would be new lows tripping 'All stops known to man' after the news and a quick reversal, closing the day near the highs. This would give the perfect excuse to enter longs on a new daily high after today's close, and tightening my initial position's stop, reaching a full position, long the Euro. If not, another positive outcome would be a rapid rally causing today's price range from the open to be bigger than Friday's true range, giving us an excuse to buy dips and/or new highs above the previous 3 days' range.
Let's keep our eyes on this now. Right now, there's a bullish signal in the daily with new highs, but the news are a huge risk, if we were to trade with tighter stop losses.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SPY: Update - Bottom was inHow are people still bearish on SPY? I'm glad I didn't close my equity longs, although I did have a stop out at break even on my SPX position overnight. The way SPX bottomed against the BIG$ support level obtained from VIX showed us there was going to be a rally once again.
The reaction to Trump's increasing odds, and finally victory in the elections was absolutely extreme, 'despair' like my mentor, Tim West described it in his yearly forecast chart. This sentiment extreme sets the stage for a rally, and we already had such rally. Now, if this keeps going there's a chance that it confirms my 2-month timeframe uptrend signal, with a target at 249.
The signal was confirmed by the end of October, and the retest of support simply gave a low risk buy opportunity which we seized.
We'll be examining this closely in the near future. Hopefully Trump manages to help the economy pick up steam with his plans, and doesn't implement his ridiculous ideas like the 'Mexican wall' to name a few.
Positives are many, unknowns too, but I believe the market is full of opportunity right now, with blood on the streets.
Good luck, to all.
Ivan Labrie.
UCO: We bought yesterday's closeThis is potentially a very good trade, for the time being, we can expect it to retest the top of the range. If you didn't buy with me and my clients yesterday at the close, you can buy here, risking a new low under the recent lowest low. Target is at least a retest of the previous rally's top, but it could evolve into resuming the longer term 'Time at mode' uptrend signal in the oil chart. In the case of $UCO, it could rally to 21.19.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: News key level updateWe have a new key level, courtesy of Bitmain's CEO, who decided to tweet about his support and potential funding of Bitcoin Unlimited, an alternative to Bitcoin Core development, which could cause a situation where there are multiple Bitcoin block chains, dividing the community. Naturally, this scared some bulls off, and we had a selloff, but I think it's just manipulation, like most news from China turn out to be. Probably colluded with some other groups, like OkCoin, or other exchanges (like BitFinex), they caused margin traders positions to be liquidated, due to the amplitude of the move during low liquidity periods.
I'm long, as depicted in my BTC publications, and used this chance to add to my position, increasing it from 30% to 80% account. I'll trim once we have a sizeable rally, and hold only my core 30% position until we hit my long term targets.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCCNY: Buy to reach 80% account long hereI'm not using stops for BTC trades, focusing on the longer term trend, I shift between 15% and 80% exposure to it in the BTC account I manage. We can top up to 80% account exposure buying here in a couple hours. Don't use leverage!
I'm currently 30% long, with no leverage, and adding here as explained on chart.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
XAUUSD: 2-month downtrend analysisThe 2-month bars in gold show a very clear downtrend, and its dynamics. The 'Time at mode' technique shows us that bears drove the price down, after a distribution period of 16 months at the top, followed by a very sharp decline, which met the prognosticated target quickly, before stalling for another 18 months. The next decline wasn't as sharp, and we noticed that when the forecasted downtrend duration had ended, a massive rally started in gold.
This happened to coincide with a spike in VIX, which as Tim West points out in his Silver charts, is a bullish signal for a bottom in metals. These two signals confirmed we had a bottom in place and higher prices could be expected from there onwards. The range highlighted in orange, created a secondary downtrend signal, while the second one in red was active, which had a smaller target range than the previous one. This points out to a potential terminal wedge ending here, an Elliott Wave formation indicating a bottom.
Additionally, the 9 bar decline in red, which expired right at the bottom, failed to reach its target, so, it forecasted a rally back to the mode, the most frequent price range in the distribution period leading to the decline, which already happened.
Now that these signals panned out, we are left with an unclear outcome, nothing can be gleaned from this timeframe, other than looking at the price ranges on the advance, which have become smaller, failing to confirm the momentum of the first big range bar at the bottom. To break the resistance zone between 1270 and 1322, price will have to absorb considerable supply from long term sellers, and to do that, it needs time, so my forecast here is for gold to remain sideways, possibly until hitting the uptrend or downtrend speed lines in red.
We can look to play this range, following the smaller timeframe signals, like the one shared by Tim West recently, check it out in related ideas. Just don't get overexcited, expecting gold to go to 1500, cause it probably won't for at least a couple more months or more. 2 more months with prices not going under the lowest low here, would confirm the trend is now up too, but December's close would have to sit above 1263.37.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
EURUSD: Bottom's inJust wanted to document my trade entry...I think we have the bottom in the Euro here.
See my related idea for more insight into the analysis.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months).
Good luck,
Ivan.
