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$TSLA: final leg down...I think $TSLA is about to reach a substantial long term bottom after dropping here next. I'm playing the short side and aiming to buy the bottom once this signal pans out, there's a huge longt term support level, it will be worth looking at the other EV names as well, might be a long term opportunity in many of them, but the safest bet is $TSLA given their unique positioning and margin of safety vs the rest. News about price cuts in China and now the EU will help the downside move here, but ultimately are not as important as investors might think, it contributes to worsening of sentiment, as people conflate this with a drop in demand, but ultimately, Elon can afford to sacrifice some of his ample margins to wipe out the competition everywhere. With Lithium prices coming down, and likely $TSLA themselves getting into Lithium mining I can see this being very close to a long term bottom here. This drop is unsustainable over time, if the market turns around, we have a huge drop in energy prices eventually acting as a massive long term tailwind for the economy, combined with the change of monetary policy stance globally forming as we speak, it's a matter of 6 months before we see the effects of it in the broad economy and earnings data probably but the bottom will happen before in most things. What will this lead to? I don't know for sure but we likely have a strong bullish impulse that we should capitalize on this year. Next year we have POTUS elections, so things could get interesting sooner than people expect by now. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by IvanLabrie
5
$PFE: Interesting juncture here...Pfizer has a curious setup where both an uptrend or down trend could trigger next, depending on which extreme of last week's range is crossed first. As per the chart, you can go long on a break of last week's high or short on a break of last week's low, with stops as depicted on chart. Targets may be subject to updates, if price action forms larger consolidation patterns in the direction of the trade and the initial entry isn't stopped. Odds of the trade working and making some progress in the next week are big if the trade is triggered, you could secure some gains by Friday close, if the target or the stop aren't hit, or just exit the trade altogether to revisit it next week, if continuation occurs. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:PFE
by IvanLabrie
1
$GBPUSD: Finally confirmed a weekly bottom...I was monitoring $GBPUSD developments as of late, it was clear to me sentiment had reached a historical extreme and this pair was due for a rebound, which eventually happened. I didn't catch much of it, and watched for developments in weekly scale, as the sideways action in the daily become too lengthy... Last Friday, we had confirmation from the weekly chart that the bottom was in, which brings a substantial opportunity, reward to risk and probability wise. If this idea is correct, then we can expect a large scale $DXY reversal (also confirmed by $DXY itself, and the bond market, as well as the 'Barron's magazine cover' indicator having flashed at the top), which suggests $GBPUSD can rally for months to come, and easily retest the range of the Brexit vote: Maybe a decent time to scoop UK real estate I guess... Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
$BTCUSD: Silver after 2011 top analogueOverall I think we should keep an open mind and trade signals as they form, after all, we get defined targets, stops and timelines from the Time@Mode signals present in daily/weekly charts, that give actionable and profitable cues with a very high win rate, but, in the long run, I expect rallies to fail to get follow through and prices to grind downwards similarly to how Silver behaved after the 2011 top in precious metals. Sentiment in crypto echoes that of Gold and Silver bugs after the 2011 top (which was connected to some hysteria in the US debt rating being downgraded briefly and all kinds of death of the dollar conspiracies). A whole industry of grifters was born with a perma bullish message in Gold and Silver, and a cult following of people stuck in losing trades, buying on the way down, fueling bear market rallies that didn't go nowhere. No one in those circles gave up and capitulated until like 2018 when following the astronomical rise of 'digital gold', physical gold vault services allowed clients to exchange their holdings for crypto, and people did it, en masse. I remember that moment well, it happened with gold triggering a weekly buy signal in early 2018, around the 1200 mark, when I published it as a low risk long term buy. The idea here is to not marry anything and hodl, odds are it won't get you far in the coming years. Definitely be open to trading both sides when safe, with a defined technical setup, and don't use any shady platforms. I think it's probably wise to rely on traditional brokerage firms to safe guard your capital, and simply trade ETFs or futures (futures have better tax treatment when it comes to actively trading them). Contrary to prior years where we had some long term signal triggering in the 2 month timeframe, allowing us to hold and predict a bullish trend and its duration, we don't have any of that, and likely won't get it again, for a long time. Before, this pattern had allowed us to ride the bullish trend from 2016 to the top in early 2018, and the one from July 2020 to late 2021 perfectly. Eventually the market might bottom and reverse, and stage a bullish trend again, but it won't happen as soon as people think, I suspect. A lot of hardcoded 'Bulliefs' need to be challenged and abandoned by people before things can move up like they used to during bullish 'cycles'. Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX_IDC:XAGUSD
by IvanLabrie
2
Gold: Could go sharply higher if strongGold has an interesting trend as of late, ever since $DXY peaked and yields started coming down. It lately caught a bid even on days when bonds were selling off which made it interesting as it suggested we could be seeing rebalancing flows out of bonds and into gold (this happened right after the debate about increased spending surfaced in Congress). I caught part of the advance before, but I'm out for a couple weeks, might rejoin the trend if it breaks last week's high here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by IvanLabrie
2
$FSLR: resuming the big picture trend?First Solar has a nice trend in yearly scale, and lately had embarked in a series of powerful rallies in daily, weekly and monthly scale, since the Inflation Reduction Act vastly improved the outlook for the company. I'm inclined to go long on any trend continuation signal, but also being mindful of potential corrections that might trigger in the short term (although they will likely be short lived given fundamentals). I present to you both possible trades that can trigger here, if they trigger tomorrow, odds are higher of working. Else we will need to update entry prices on a day to day basis until triggered this week or next. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:FSLRLong
by IvanLabrie
$CRWD: Down trend expired as a failure...CrowdStrike offers a high reward to risk setup here, buying into strength after the recent daily timeframe down trend signal has expired without hitting the target in time, this type of scenario warrants a mean reversion move back to the distribution area where the move started from a few weeks ago, in a similar amount of time as the projected decline. I like that analysts who used to be bullish on the way down have capitulated and turned pessimistic on the stock as a bonus here.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by IvanLabrie
$LCID: Short squeeze?$LCID has a nice setup intraday here, which makes me think it will rally towards 7.25 on Tuesday-Wednesday next, provided it remains strong and marches higher than last week overall. Similar situation for most EV names here, seen also in $F, $TSLA, $RIVN, $LI, $XPEV and $NIO. It could be a good long term entry as well, if you want exposure to the sector (probably only really viable with $RIVN and $TSLA or just $TSLA though, but all are very tradeable here). I wouldn't have more than 10-20% in long term positions now, given overall risks, and not risk that unless you're up by that much or more for the year. Else stick to trading for the time being.
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by IvanLabrie
$AMD: Bottom after a correction?$AMD has a nice setup forming here intraday, if price breaks over $65.02 you can expect a strong up day tomorrow, with upside to $66.02. If it fails to get follow through after triggering this buy and moves under $64.08 you can consider the short term entry failed and take the loss. Don't risk over 1-2% in such an entry...if it triggers. The daily down trend time has expired, so it suggests price could mean revert back to the down trend mode @ 70.67 within the next 7 daily bars or less. That's a good target for any position you let run for longer than a day after taking this short term opportunity to get long stock. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by IvanLabrie