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$XAUUSD: Monitoring positioning...Could gold be close to a long lasting bottom similar to the last time Commercial Hedgers covered their shorts and went net long? The last two times this happened we had a massive rally in precious metals each time. I do see some interesting variables at play that could prove a bottom in gold is happening. We have some potential fundamental variables that could contribute to that: The UK set a precedent for countries embarking on a more market friendly path, at the cost of rising deficits, to potentially attempt to save their local economies from the destruction rising rates and withdrawing liquidity (and hiking taxes) creates. If more countries start cutting taxes, and reversing their hawkish stances over time, we could see a reaction in the gold market. China is at an interesting juncture, with rumors of a change in leadership, a big CCP congress coming and people clearly sick of zero COVID measures, if there is a change in those variables it could also set some big trades in motion. Fed policy is already priced in by markets, bonds might be close to bottom or at a bottom, pricing in future rate cuts. CPI print coming, slowing of inflation would further reinforce the idea that maybe doing what the UK is starting to do makes sense. Many economists and fund managers agree that the Fed is making a mistake destroying the economy (and the world indirectly) attempting to curb inflation when the cause of inflation was govt action and lock downs and not monetary policy itself. A recession is clearly in motion, and won't be resolved too quickly, but the effect on gold and other commodities might be quick once these puzzle pieces align. From a technical, historical and positioning standpoint: Futures positioning is approaching a critical juncture, if Commercial hedgers cover all shorts, we will get a big signal to go long Gold. Each time it happened we had massive and lasting rallies in precious metals. At this pace, we can expect them to be flat or net long within 3-4 weeks. There is a Time@Mode weekly signal that expires in exactly 3 weeks! Yearly Time@Mode trend is up for another 3-4 years, and currently near a low risk buy zone with a stop @ 1517.18. If prices stay sideways after rallying above 1750, and maybe tagging the invasion level repeatedly, we could form a new yearly mode, which could propel gold higher for a few more years, once breaking out from the range, as per my chart. This fits with yearly time expiration in the long term $SPX chart and the idea that we are likely to see sideways/bearish action in markets to catch up to prior historical periods. Oil is likely repeating a similar move as the period in the year 2000-2003 as well, this chart idea from @timwest suggests we can get a correction in oil, to then get a big rally until it peaks near $500. This also fits with the idea that we could get a similar move in equities as in 2000-2009. A big decline in oil eventually sets the stage for support in equities with a time lag of 6/12 months as well. At some point, more governments are likely to reverse course on their destructive hawkish ways following the UK, this could be probable after elections if Trump wins the presidency in the US. Just something to consider, this is net bullish for gold and oil likely, as it would increase deficits and stimulate the economy to come back from a recession, globally. The culprit, is lock downs and fiscal policy more so than monetary policy errors, people will gradually realize this. All in all, I think the message is clear: odds of commodities outperforming equities are big, if we repeat a period like 2000 to 2011, or something like the 70s, and at some point we will get a clean shot at a bottom in oil and gold, which will likely be monster trades to put on. Stay away from equities, perhaps focus on miners, and other names that fared well in the aforementioned periods (some healthcare names did well, energy, gold and silver miners, copper/lithium). The EV adoption is a big fundamental trend as well, I think this sets the stage to get a big rally in lithium, for which I am positioned already in $LTHM. Have to time it well in regards to metals and oil, but we are getting closer to getting clarity on this home run trend and I think gold is a big and important cue to get a sense of timing here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
7
$TSLA: Could be a long term bottom...I suspect we saw an important low form in $TSLA here. We had a series of events, after sentiment was very depressed and people were focusing on share buy backs as a possible solution to $TSLA's woes, worrying about '$TWTR related overhang' and demand falling in China / price cuts, etc. We heard about: Soros building a stake and backing the company Munger warming up to $TSLA FSD no longer beta, available to everyone who requests it as of today Talk about investing in a new Gigafactory in Korea (which happens to have a free trade agreement with India) Talk about investing in lithium mining or acquiring a stake in some mining firm This might help support the stock long term here, as it's clear Elon Musk is still investing for growth, and not focusing on returning cash to shareholders (which would be something an ex-growth company would do). The solar business is starting to do well, and the 'inflation reduction act' is likely to help it gain more traction. Valuation has come down substantially, and the stock is down a lot, tagging monthly low volume support, near the down trend target from the same timeframe. With the last CPI report showing inflation is coming down, Biden approving one more oil export terminal, as well as recession risk being recognized by the Fed if they keep hiking aggressively I suspect we can get a substantially rally out of this juncture, and maybe even a long term bottom. I've initiated a long term position, after trying to capture a bottom recently, but selling before going lower. I was away from the stock since Elon sold shares to 'pay his fair share of taxes' after doubling from $600 or so when I had last bought it. Going forward, we need to see a basing pattern form, and pay close attention to fundamental catalysts to give us post pattern confirmation that the thesis here is correct. Currently, reward to risk and probability favor getting involved again, big time. As a sidenote: Happy Thanksgiving to those who celebrate it! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
1
$AAPL: Bullish signal in the daily tf$AAPL has a nice setup that formed on Thursday, post CPI, with a chance to trigger a new 9 day trend on Monday if it holds up or moves higher. Upside to $167-170 by the end of November if it holds over $144-142. Despite the strength observed after CPI data came out, a lot of people are on the sidelines or still shorting or quoting the similarity to 2008 moves, etc. Hopefully this is a positive signal from sentiment... For now, data suggests we should be long and try to manage risk carefully until we have more clarity that we are out of the woods when it comes to downside risk. I'm personally not a fan of $AAPL as an investment but you have to monitor the signals and trade accordingly in speculative accounts (I suggest employing 25% of your total capital to trade short and mid term technical signals with strict risk management, and set aside 75% of the capital for long term investments with WAY wider invalidation criteria, also tracking fundamental variables to decide when to exit, or add, or cut exposure down, etc.). Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$SPY: Trend expiration and more$SPY shows a daily trend that is reaching the end of its forecasted time duration, and a series of fundamental key levels that might act as magnets and support or resistance levels as price gravitates towards them. Currently, if price stays sideways for 1 more day (or more) and then breaks down sharply, we can get a reversal of the uptrend we had since the October 13th's low. The expiration of the most recent daily trend implies price stays sideways for a few days before breaking out to the upside again if trending up, or, that it will return to support below, roughly @ $379.6, within the next 8 trading days (similarly to $XLF). Well worth monitoring this chart, things are about to get interesting again. Bond yields have gone up for a long time, and might be turning around, which can imply an array of different scenarios for equities and fixed income, so far, market participants assumed inflation peaking was a bullish factor for stocks but it might be the case that we are entering into a recession and stocks remain under pressure while bonds bottom here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYShort
by IvanLabrie
2
$ETHUSDT: Down trend in the weeklyI guess this time we do have sufficient catalysts to send crypto lower...It's been a nasty series of events, with miners capitulating after using ASICs as collateral to buy Bitcoin instead of selling to fund operations, then Alameda/FTX getting toast with their bags of Sam coins as collateral for their entire operation and the noise around that. Regulatory risk increasing and we still have more miner capitulation to come in $BTCUSD after it goes sub 14k (based on on chain data). I'd say it's good to have some short exposure to crypto as a nice source of alpha (specially if you're long value/energy, etc. as I am). Best of luck! Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
$BTCUSD: Things go full circle...Now that crypto faces a Gox type catastrophe, we might get some substantial downside and perhaps we get rid of people bag holding from April 2021, who have been confident in loss and adding on the way down. Including the ones who thought 20k was a bottom (all the guys who missed the prior bull cycle ending in late 2021, when they sold the ATH retest in Dec 2020). We sure needed a good ole' sentiment reset in crypto and for some reason despite some things looking bullish we never had it, as price never flushed low enough to take everyone out, this had kept me uneasy about the basing pattern we had here since the post-Luna debacle low. Patience paid off as I mostly made some small gains instead of losing big being trapped long like everyone is now. I went short today, and added a tad lower, with an avg around 18835. I did take a small loss when one of CZ's tweets had made price jump back over 19750, but it was short lived as news emerged of antitrust issues being an obstacle for CZ to buy FTX.com. Jury's still out on that one but the chart looks primed for a drop as we now have both the weekly and monthly timeframes indicating sharp downside ahead. Stay safe out there! Best of luck! Cheers. Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
13
$BTCUSD: Monthly view...Friendly reminder that the trend is down long term...Here's how the monthly chart looks in $BTCUSD as of right now. Unless this month's range is wiped out, you can expect continued downside for months to come with substantial certainty. Don't fight the trend, remember what Old Turkey would say: well, it's a bear market after all. So much filth is gradually being exposed, and a lot more dominoes will fall into place if we continue falling: Miner capitulation: no sign of abating, will accelerate below 14200 (see all earning reports for publicly traded mining firms, all at risk due to being leveraged long $BTCUSD with $BTCUSD / ASIC collateral pretty much. Tough time to service debt with higher rates, and less availability of credit. (rising credit spreads) They might be forced to puke out of their Bitcoin positions at whatever price... Saylor at risk below 13500: $MSTR might be at risk of collapsing the lower we go, which charts suggest we will, can cause a flood of supply hitting the market, same as miners selling or worse. Mt Gox repaying creditors? Contgion is the name of the game: 3AC, Terra, FTX, BlockFi, Genesis... Silvergate next? Tons of bad credit and leverage built into the system are gradually being unwind, nowhere near done. Regulatory risk increasing by the hour. Stablecoins at risk as well...Talk of CBDCs accelerating, which might or might not matter much, but worth monitoring. What am I missing? Feel free to comment with interesting bits and pieces of info so that we can complete the puzzle here. It's in flux but the trend is clearly not positive for crypto here. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
10
$EURAUD: Aussie bottomed, Euro overbought...We have a great setup in the $EURAUD pair here, I am fine standing behind a position like this: on one hand we got the chance that the Dollar peaked, and specially the Aussie dollar primed to do well due to FDI and exports mix favoring it over a net commodity importer currency with weak fundamentals and geopolitical risk, paired with the China reopening and bottom in Copper and Iron Ore, this is a great play all things considered and adds some valuable Alpha to a portfolio here. Technical setup shows a daily T@M signal indicating a reversal of the existing daily trend, which happens while Monthly is overbought and hitting resistance, and as the Dollar Index hit the 200 day SMA, which makes me think it might catch a bid. If so, funding currencies are likely a fade, specially vs $AUD or $NZD, as a risk on bet (bet is bond yields peaked as well). Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
$USDJPY: Weekly trend signal points to a steady advance$USDJPY has a new trend continuation signal here, weekly and daily trends are bullish, as well as monthly, quarterly and even yearly. Energy and bonds suggest we will see rising yields for longer, FX looks like the dollar has ample reasons to remain bid and the BOJ and ECB are the weakest central banks here, relatively vs the Fed's policy stance, as well as from a macro standpoint as energy importers facing an energy crunch, which is bound to be negative variable as well. I'm long $UUP calls and short $NZDUSD, adding some $USDJPY exposure here to remain exposed to the dollar trend. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
$ETSY: Monster base!I like the setup in $ETSY here, suggesting a massive bottoming pattern is active. The signal suggests a rally towards $150 to $224 by the week starting on Jan 23rd 2023 or sooner will take place as long as the stock holds up and moves steadily higher instead of going back below $101.12, nullifying the breakout from 'fair value'. Valuation is substantially lower now, with PSR reaching levels not seen since 2020 lows, and although loss making in the last quarter, ESP TTM shows the company is profitable. Revenue growth slowed down since 2019 but the trend for revenue is clearly up. Free cash flow yield of 4.5% vs market cap is not bad for such an emerging growth name. Definitely interesting here! Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:ETSYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
$GM: Interesting weekly uptrendI like the setup in $GM, which I think can move fast here if EV names gain traction. I'm already long $F from lower in my long term account, but want to add a short/mid term position in $GM here. Valuation is not as interesting and I don't particularly love Mary Barra's execution or her being prone to corrupt political shenanigans with Unions and Biden backing her, but well, the setup is good and likely will produce good returns within 8 weeks. The company is highly leveraged, and revenue growth is low, but seems to have bottomed out. Price to sales suggests it's cheap, same as earnings yield which sits at 14% ish. They have been burning cash though, but perhaps their cheap EVs and the Silverado truck do well going forward. I'm not likely to participate for longer than short and mid term technical setups suggest we should remain involved with the stock though. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMLong
by IvanLabrie
$SPY: updated short term viewWe have a setup indicating immediate upside towards the area where a cluster of earning season related key levels align, and the mid point of the Ukraine invasion range sits, to be hit likely by late November. The question is whether bonds have bottomed long term here, as that suggests the trend in the Dollar is reversing, which could have big implications for earnings in foreign currency and basically everything as it impacts sovereign entities with Dollar denominated debt, households squeezed by rising mortgage rates, etc. Regarding equities, we could be at a juncture where we have an extended sideways bear market, which doesn't exclude powerful rallies lasting a few months, with substantial corrections as well, perhaps lasting until the next decade. As usual, we go step by step, but I've selected some long term positions I intend to hold on to, for as long as logical, depending on how fundamentals evolve, rebalancing when needed or rotating into other names with a larger opportunity vs risk, etc. Trading wise, I suggest to set aside 25% of the capital for short term trading and dedicate 75% of funds for long term ideas. Risking 0.25% per trade in the trading account (1% of 25%) has been solid advice since I recommended this to my client base back in March. It was not the time to play Rambo in markets...But some big moves are brewing here. If interested in learning more, contact me. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
$NZDUSD: Tight stop, big target...I think the Kiwi offers a tremendous reward to risk ratio on the short side here. The situation with persistent inflation and rising energy prices is certainly a headwind for the economy, combined with Powell's increased determination as per his last speech at Jackson Hole, has helped bears gain ground here, triggering both a daily and a weekly down trend simultaneously. The invalidation for this signal is a move back above the 0.6255 mark, in which case a short squeeze would happen. Currently, the chart signal points to a decline towards 0.5762 by October 21st, the latest. Overall, good setup in the currency market to add to a more holistic trading portfolio (like mine). Any market that adds uncorrelated returns, is a good use of leverage/cash. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
$AUDUSD: Looking like a bottom...I suspect the Dollar Index is reversing, so I am identifying the currency pairs best positioned to rally from here. Given Australia's commodity exports, the Aussie pair is likely to benefit from increasing demand for copper, iron ore, lithium, to name a few, for years to come. Such tailwind won't help much if the Federal Reserve is still embarking in QT and tightening sprees, but we have some evidence pointing to a chance for CBs and govts/treasuries to reverse course or engage in some sort of policy reversal or pivot, via various tools at their disposal on the fiscal and monetary side of things. The headwind for Australia and Asia/Pacific being China as a wild card, post CPC 20th Congress, and black swan risk of a Taiwan invasion. That said, if conflict does arise, precious metals would likely rally, and probably help boost the Aussie dollar as well. Overall I suspect we are headed for a long period of outperformance for commodities and commodity exporters' currencies in the FX realm. Emerging Markets become interesting in that regard as well, worth looking into them for opportunities too. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$LTHM: EV adoption + inelastic supply...I think $LTHM offers tremendous long term upside here from a fundamental POV, as well as technical. I have a LEAPS position going, aiming to capture the upside in the chart. I suggest you keep some long term exposure to it via shares or calls (riskier, Jan 2024 calls should be fine). Miners will have a tough time ramping up lithium mining to meet EV makers demand, as more and more battery factories are being built. This has tremendous potential to boost lithium demand while supply remains capped. Much higher lithium prices will ensue until supply can increase (not likely, and there's no economical way to replace the current extraction methods yet). Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Editors' picks
LLong
by IvanLabrie
7
$ETHUSD: Ethereum buy signal popped in the weekly...Interesting reward to risk here, I'm long $ETHUSD with a relatively tight stop. If the weekly pans out here, we may get a rally towards 2550 next, but I suspect price might need to base sideways after reaching the 1560 mark, before moving higher steadily. Definitely an interesting trade setup as it is he first bullish signal in weekly scale since a bearish signal popped in said timeframe back in late December 2021, which at the time seemed extremely risky and warned me to back away from crypto exposure since then. We had some intensive declines until now and a lot of people likely were blown up in pieces between the devastating losses caused by Celsius, Luna and other ponzi schemes collapsing, together with the big declines across the board in all crypto assets. I was skeptical overall, since I hadn't seen sentiment deteriorate enough, but I could be wrong. Since reward to risk is potentially very good, I am willing to get involved here. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met. Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well: There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events. Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by IvanLabrie
2
$TSLA: Weekly and Monthly turned upAs per my prior post, $TSLA started to reverse the decline from the market top, after Elon sold shares back then. Recently, Kimbal Musk exercised options to purchase shares, and we had a series of interesting developments. The last report was very good considering the lock downs in China affecting $TSLA Shanghai as well as sales in China, as well as high commodity prices weighing in on input costs. Despite this, $TSLA surged after reporting earnings which showed they generated $621M in free cash flow despite factory costs and China lock downs impacting them. They raised $936M from selling Bitcoin, which also helps reduce risk and correlational impact from down days in crypto markets, and might ease some PM anxiety regarding the company (and mine). Weekly trend turned bullish last week, I am long, holding here, but interesting to note the new monthly signal, which points to a price target of $1625 by May 2023. Upcoming fundamental catalysts are interesting as well, and combined with the new spending plan, set the stage for a rally provided my general market view is correct here. I don't consider the stock split a big deal, but it will help trade options safely for people with smaller accounts, that's likely coming during August, then we have a potential credit rating upgrade as well. By October, the $TWTR trial is a risk but might help get rid of some risk in the stock, as Elon could need to sell shares if forced to acquire the company. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
3
$DXY: New weekly signal spotted...The dollar index has flashed a buy signal in the daily and weekly timeframes here, I've bot some exposure to it via long calls in $UUP expiring by late September. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal forecast implies a substantial move lasting 6 weeks from here onwards. Downside risk is small, the signal suggests a 3.65 times reward to risk ratio, if the target is reached and the stop isn't, since the signal popped on Thursday this week. Trading FX signals like this adds a nice source of alpha to a stocks portfolio, I like to focus on the dollar index for simplicity's sake, but at times there's good opportunities in cross pairs as well, for those avid with macro analysis. Best of luck if buying the dollar here, expect a strong rally until the target is reached at least, with +60% odds. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$UNG: Next leg up in Nat Gas pricesI think we may see a rapid advance in Nat Gas here, the technical setup in $UNG paves the way for a 18.4:1 reward to risk potential trade. I'm long equity here, but you could trade this with options, or an equivalent fund in the EU or UK (if you're EU based). Futures or options on futures are also an option, but more complicated to execute with maximum efficiency. I suggest you explore this if you're more experienced, and able to determine which strategy to use to maximize RR and performance vs capital allocated to this idea. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UNGLong
by IvanLabrie
6