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Short Term Pullback preceding CPI // Gold 🧹I believe it's possible to observe a Pullback prior to CPI data on Wednesday for Gold. CPI is anticipated to increase once again which is not great for the Fed's inflation goals. This could cause more buying pressure on gold. In the meantime, we've seen a nice Higher High of 1hr market structure to begin the week. This seems like a solid liquidity move preceding a pullback to liquidate late buyers at all time highs here prior to CPI. I think a pullback to 2305 1hr zone or 2291 Daily level is possible prior to CPI data. Safe trading. We may snapback to 2338 or 2353 where I'm anticipating selling pressure. The idea is get out prior to CPI which could cause massive buying pressure. We have 3-4 trading sessions in the meantime for possible shorts.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ShrewdCatfx
1
EurUsd treads in a Gray area preceding April NFP 📌What a Trading day.. a Continuation followed by a sharp selloff. The continuation was called out here at ShrewdCatFx and the Selloff was punishment to late buyers I suppose. NFP data tomorrow will likely take us for a ride as It typically does.. Direction? I'm leaning for more upside despite our weak Daily candle closure today. Why? I like the optimistic remarks by the fed this week and the market ate it up. Yes we've pulled back dramatically leading into NFP data tomorrow but the weekly candle is still bullish and US30 stock index is at a nice support level(after pulling back all week), suggesting a Risk-on Friday. 4hr timeframe, wild week with dramatic selloff to begin followed by massive move up with USD data and speech Daily timeframe, Buyers rejected as the Thursday Daily candle closes a shooting star candle that coincides with a Daily resistance level 1.08372! The Weekly timeframe, price is respecting 1.07652 so far this week but we still have NFP which could cause a lot of volatility Monthly Range!
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Optimistic Market on remarks by Fed Chair, J Powell ♦️The Market is Flying with Optimism after ADP data was better than Forecasted, Services data missed forecasts but Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said that he does not think that inflation is reversing higher. The monthly candle has flipped bullish along with the Weekly candle as price has done a complete 180 from our initial selloff early in the week. Yes, we dropped to begin the month but it was the first day of the month and each monthly candle has a top and bottom wick. The tuesday daily candle closed back above the weekly level 1.0765. The wednesday daily candle dropped slightly and retested 1.0765 prior to blasting to outer space. That is one mighty candle and trading against itis not impossible but will require extra monitoring. We observed some very nice volatility today as we completely blew through the daily resistance zone 1.079 and are currrently testing daily resistance level 1.08372. The asian session 4hr candle closed above this daily level 1.08372 and we may keep flying . If not, and we come back down to earth, then I anticipate a retest of 1Hr support zone 1.0833 prior to more significant buying pressure. London may just shoot up to the next 4hr zone then pullback as we transition into New York Open is another scenario that could play out. We may observe some volatile ranging prior to NFP on Friday. It's important to look left to see what zones are most relevant for the new days trading. the prices I like for the upcoming sessions include 1.08429 1hr zone, 1.08524 4hr resistance zone, and 1.08330 1hr support zone.. safe trading
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Pullback treads between Key Level's 1.0765/1.0790 🎚️Hello Traders.. In our previous analysis (24hrs ago) we called out Longs/Buys from 1.0732 and price is currently 1.0770, an increase of 40 pips. The Monthly candle pulled down to begin the month and as we enter Wednesday the candle is returning to Break even after dropping 60 pips. The market now treads above the weekly level 1.0765 and will this sustain until the end of the week.. it's possible although I dont think we've seen the end of USD momentum this week but maybe we have. Maybe the market will pull up it's pants and the Eur will make a difference lol. The Tuesday daily candle closed bullish back above the weekly level 1.0765, this level we must watch closely... The wednesday daily candle already broke the high of the previous candle .. hmm... If we do head bullish I see us tapping into the daily resistance created on Monday at 1.079. Otherwise we created a daily support level today with the Bullish candle close at 1.0742. We do have a good amount of data in the upcoming session which could cause some volatility. I can see buyers pushing price to the Daily level 1.079 where we may see Sellers step back in. Today's session could be tricky and flexibility will be key.
by ShrewdCatfx
Fomo Liquidity Pullback 🤐Anticipating a pullback with London session to clear Fomo liquidity. Depending on the amount, we may observe a pullback to 1.07435 4hr Resistance zone. If the market is extra stubborn then we may see a more sustained pullback to 1.075 area. Manufacturing data during NY session today surprised to the upside and beat the forecast creating a dramatic selloff on EurUsd. Not surprised for us here at ShrewdCatFx since we have been outlining the Market sentiment surrounding USD with hot labor market and increasing inflation readings last month of March. Good manufacturing data was just gasoline on the already hot USD. On another note, it's the beginning of the week still.. it's pretty early in the week and we've already observed some great volatility.. I believe we may observe some rversion to the mean for EurUsd and London will cause some pullback volatility to gather liquidity and plus it's only Monday. We still have ADP and NFP which will be a good excuse for more volatility.. so in the meantime we may mess around and range or pullback.. if not then I may be wrong and our next 4hr zone 1.07265 and 1.07105 are our next short targets for the upcoming sessions which has USD job openings news which is forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point which lines up with some at least short term EUR strength.. safe trading
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
EurUsd Beginning of Q2, 2024 📅Hello Traders, the March Monthly candle has closed bearish with a large top wick which looks to have rejected the top of our Monthly range at 1.1028. We now have 3 Monthly candle closing bearish consecutively which suggest more downside on EurUsd possible as we enter Q2, 2024. The top wick on the March monthly candle looks like a fresh liquidity grab for a push towards our monthly support level 1.057 in April. Our first stop will be the February monthly candle low price ( 1.695). Strong Jobs data in March and increasing Inflation readings suggest continued uncertainty surrounding the Fed's ability to get a handle on the market. In the meantime we can observe USD strength Q1 ,2024 and this may continue as we enter Q2. Anything can happen in the markets and it's important that we always remain flexible in our approach and strategy for profiting from the markets. In the short term, our key levels of interest are Daily Resistance level created last week 1.08373. Another key level being the level that we mentioned multiple times last week, 1.0765 weekly support level. The Friday daily candle (march 29th) reacted off here and closed bullish. The next key level is 1.07105 Daily Support Level. Monthly Weekly Daily
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Monthly Candle Closure Volatility ♠️Some banks and Institutions require their execution desks to close positions as the month comes to and end. This sometimes causes wild and irrational choppiness in the price action. Caution as the market closes out the month of March 24'. PCE data is forecasted to decrease which could spark some optimism and a rebound to the upside to end the month. If not, we may very well see a continuation of momentum with safe-haven buying of the USD aka EurUsd heads to the sea floor. Next target for shorts is weekly level 1.07663 and 1.07451 4hr zone. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 3:42 Weekly timeframe 5:30 Daily timeframe 7:03 4hr timeframe 9:30 1hr timeframe and upcoming news
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Retest 1.083 prior to more Downside -> EurUsd 🐺Based off fundamentals and apparent momentum in the market, my bias remains as bearish for the EurUsd currency pair. The Monthly candle has reteaced nearly all of it's gains as we come to a close in 2 days. The the top wick signals rejection from the high of the Monthly resistance to me (1.103). This coincided with Jobs data and Increasing inflation data and the last few weeks we have observed bearish momentum in the market. Yes this week so far we have recieved some buying pressure off the 1.0805 daily support level. Although with GDP data forecasted to remain unchanged tomorrow and Housing data expected to grow for the U.S. economy, I can observe more potnetial USD strength to end the March Monthly candle. First target is 1.0805 retest of the Daily support level, then 1.08 4hr zone and ultimately 1.0768 weekly level
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
4
The Hidden Key --> Multi-Timeframe Analysis 🪀I begin by explaining the Video Idea--> Using Multi-Timeframe analysis to put together a trade idea. MTF analysis is absolutely crucial for running a profitable trading business... It's something that takes some experience but once you understand the way in which all timeframes move together it's like an Aha moment. We look at 3 timeframes.. the 1Hr, 4hr and the Daily timeframes. We observe an example from just a few days ago that outlines how it was very possible to catch a 20 pips after the Monday(3/25/24) daily candle closed bullish.. Give and rocket and leave a comment for similar content in the future!
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
2
The Great Wall of 1.0805 Daily Level 🐼Enough to Stop the Risk-Off Sentiment? Daily Level 1.0805 may act as a temporary support level and we may observe a bounce and retracement early in the week here. During the first session of the week, Asian has observed some nice volatility off this Daily support level created on March 1st of this Month. 18 pips bounce already and I anticpate that by the end of New York session we will observe some sort of dead cat bounce after the freefall drop from the prior week. Target for a retracemnet is 1.08279 4hr zone. Retracements are a healthy part of a trending market but we don't have to bounce necessarily. We may very well just cntinue to drop towards our next siginifcant level and clear a 40 pips range down to Weekly Support level 1.0768. Intro and monthly timeframe 0:0 Weekly timeframe 2:13 3:52 daily timframe 6:29 4hr timeframe 7:49 1hr timeframe
by ShrewdCatfx
Trading with the Risk-Off Sentiment 🐻📉 Hello Traders! Welcome back to another Top-Down Analysis of EurUsd. I've found that only trading 1 Pair/Instrument is a great way to reduce your risk exposure in the markets. There are a few reasons for this --- 1) I only have to pay attention to the news announcments for the -EUR & -USD 2) The currency pair has it's own nuances and characteristics that I may not understand If i were to trade many pairs. 3) It's session-session behavior is easier to follow since I'm only following 1 pair With that said, Eur/Usd did decrease over the previous session as I anticipated and called out in the Analysis. This was for a few reasons.. Market sentiment has shifted to risk-off slightly due to increasing inflation and better than expected NFP jobs data (also boosts inflation). We also have interest rates in 2 days and there is uncertainty about that.. (even more of a reason to buy the safe haven dollar) Next target for shorts is 1.08510.. In the meantime it is possible that we may pullback to 1.089 Daily resistance level that was created today for a last minute retest before more downside to come. I have a strong Bearsh bias leading up to interest rates here 0'0 intro and monthly timeframe 1:41 weekly timeframe 3:02 daily timeframe 517 4hr tiemfame 8:01 1hr timeframe
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Red Previous Weekly Candle Vs Weak Usd Data🛡️⚔️Hello Traders.. Another new week of trading ahead. No news announcements to kick off the week so expecting some smooth price action. Monday's can move nicely as volatility is typically lower. It's during the end of the week when we observe more aggressive trends and thats when you can really let your winning trades run. Coming out of the Weekly candle closure from last week, we may observe a continuation of bearish momentum towards 4hr zone 1.0873 or the next daily support level 1.08516. We also should consider the weak data that came out for the USD on Friday.. Consumer sentiment and Manufacturing data both missed expectations and the Daily candle for Friday closed Bullish.. In this case we may observe an increase towards extreme level 1.090 flat. 0:0 Monthly Timeframe 1:14 Weekly timeframe 2:30 Daily timeframe 4:10 4Hr timeframe 6:48 1Hr timeframe
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Weekly Price Review / EurUsd 2nd Week March 24'🏗️We Depreciated -46.4 Pips this week on EurUsd. This was due to profit taking from the increase in recent weeks, CPI data that wasn't favorable for the Federal Reserve's goals, and confluence with a Weekly Resistance Level 1.095. In this Analysis we begin by looking at how the Monthly and weekly timeframes pulled to the downside. We then go down to the 30 minute timeframe where we observe market structure and analyze how news releases impacted price behavior. We finish the analysis by breaking down price behavior on a session to session basis throughout the week. 0:0 Monthly timeframe and Introduction 1:19 Weekly Timeframe 2:10 daily timeframe 2:39 4hr timeframe 3:15 30m timeframe and Analysis Leave a Rocket and/or comment below for similar videos.
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Banknifty Bearish 🐻Wolfewave with Bearish Bat 🦇Bank Nifty Analysis: A Confluence of Bearish Signals Across Timeframes Our in-depth analysis of Bank Nifty across various timeframes reveals a compelling collection of bearish indicators, suggesting a cautious approach for investors. Among these, the Bearish Wolfe Wave patterns on both weekly and H4 charts stand out, alongside the activation of the Bat Action Magnet Move (BAMM), pointing towards a potential downward trajectory. Key Technical Observations: Bearish Wolfe Wave Patterns: The identification of Bearish Wolfe Wave formations in both the weekly and H4 timeframes suggests an imminent reversal from the current bullish trend to a bearish trend. Bat Action Magnet Move (BAMM): This phenomenon indicates that the price is gravitating towards a significant level of resistance, potentially marking a pivotal turning point for Bank Nifty. Proximity to Resistance Levels: The price is nearing a critical juncture as identified by Read the Market (RTM) analysis, specifically the Left Shoulder (LS) Kink, which aligns with a Maximum Pain Level (MPL) and a Minor Flag Limit (FL). This cluster of resistance reinforces the bearish sentiment. Anticipation of New Supply Formation: Although bearish indicators are prominent, the formation of a new supply zone is eagerly awaited. Predictions suggest a brief upward movement towards the BAT Pattern Recognition Zone (PRZ) and LS Kink, where new supply could emerge, setting the stage for a significant downturn. Elliott Wave Analysis: From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market is currently in a correction phase, with an expected follow-up of an impulsive decline mirroring the previous impulsive fall labeled as "A". This symmetry supports the forecast of a downturn, where "A" equals "C" in magnitude. Observation on Divergence: The current analysis notes the absence of strong divergence signals. This lack suggests that, despite the bearish outlook, traders might benefit from awaiting more robust divergence indications before positioning themselves. Conclusion : The aggregation of technical indicators, including Wolfe Wave patterns, BAMM, and resistance confluences, directs us towards a bearish forecast for Bank Nifty. However, a strategic pause is advised until the formation of a new supply zone and the emergence of stronger divergence signals are observed. This cautious stance will enable investors to make informed decisions, leveraging the detailed insights provided by this analysis. Visual Analysis Links: Daily Timeframe Analysis M15 Timeframe Analysis
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by Indyan
2 Setups & 8 Trades / Scalping Trades Review #2 🚌Hello Traders, another Scalping Review video analysis! 8 Trades today (4/8 or 50% Win rate on the day). I traded 2 different setups today. - Fakeout Against the Trend (2 Trades ) and - Fakeout with the Trend (6 trades) .. I earned more today trading the latter.. typically, trading with the trend is not a bad idea and my results showed that today :) . Although, going against the trend can provide great Risk/Reward opportunities and so we cannot discount that setup. What are your thoughts on the Trading day review? Please leave your feedback below if you enjoyed/disliked the 2nd part of this video series, Scalping Trades Review.
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Slightly Lower after Inflation Day 🎛️Hello Traders welcome back to another Top-Down Analysis of EurUsd. Today was CPI Inflation day and the market is about Break Even after the Day's trading. At One point EurUsd had depreciated in favor of the USD by about +.21% but we have since retraced .. possibly from profit taking and normal market movements. 0:0 Monthly Timeframe 1:51 Weekly timeframe 2:35 Daily timeframe 4:17 4Hr timeframe 5:55 1Hr timeframe We observed an increase during Asian session back towards our weekly level 1.095 that was duly corrected as is expected from an Asian session move. London session corrected the Asian session move back to near the open of the Daily candle where we observed a bounce prior to CPI inflation data news release. CPI whipsawed down dramtically as the numbers were better than expected for the dollar at 3.2% (better than the 3.1% y/y). This opposes the Fed's goal of 2% y/y so it'll be interesting to see if we continue to reject 1.095 Weekly level in the ensuing days after CPI release. Our First target for Shorts would be a retest of the Lows created today at 1.09092 and possibly we touch 1.08722 in coming sessions. The fundamental reason would be market particiaptns flocking into the dollar as a safe haven asset since the Fed is moving in the wrong direction, and away from its 2% y/y goal.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
2 Setups & 3 Trades / Scalping Trades Review 🎋Hello Traders! This short video details my Trading Day. I traded 2 different setups today for a total of 3 individual trades. I won all 3 trades :). 2 Of the trades were Short trades as we had price rejecting Weekly Level 1.09510 to begin the week. We also had confidence to put on these Short trades since the London 4hr candle closed bearish and the current 4hr candle was bearish at that time. Rewinding just a bit for context purposes.. Originally price was consolidating during London session in a 10 pip range between 1.09460 and 1.09360. Then we began to observe some downward movement shortly after New York session opened. We started to move back towards the low price created during NFP on friday (1.09180). As we tapped into this price is when I began to look at the charts to scalp. We placed 1 Buy trade today as we creased the Low price of Friday's daily candle which turned out well. I did get in a bit early and so that was the least profitable of my 3 winning trades today.
by ShrewdCatfx
Special Guest Intro / March NFP Top-Down Analysis 🎨Hello Traders! Today we were fortunate enough to have the ShrewdCatFx Illustrator make an appearance on the Air. Yes, it is that time of the month for NFP data! 0:0 Special Guest & Monthly Timeframe/NFP Expectations 2:32 Weekly Timeframe 3:43 Daily Timeframe 6:20 4Hr timeframe 8:27 1Hr Timeframe Numbers are expected to decrease over the prior period but growth is expected overall as 198K jobs are forecasted to have been created in February. The figure from ADP on Wednesday missed expectations slightly as 149K was expected and 140K was the actual figure. If the data tomorrow is better/more than 198K, then I'm anticipating a partial retracement of the increase we've observed so far this week. (Up 120 Pips this week) If the Data is close to what is forecasted (198K) or falls short of that number, then I anticpate a strong continuation move to the upside towards 1.09729 Daily Level and 1.09828 4Hr Zone. We may even moon towards the Monthly level 1.105. Otherwise, favorable numbers will cause a retracement (as previously mentioned) back towards 1.09039 4Hr Zone and 1.08834 Daily Level.
by ShrewdCatfx