The Technicalities of Key Levels (Institutionalization) This was made for someone asking for the key-levels on GJ and where they are. I hope this shows how powerful waiting for rejections and consolidation around institutional prices can give us high probability trades. The goal is to analyze from top to bottom, gathering the price action data in order to tally up confluences. For stop placements, the 4-hour chart will be the lowest in which we find SL points above lower swing highs and below higher swing lows.
Turning analysis into trades..
When performing analysis across the daily and weekly timeframes on a Sunday night for instance or analyzing the daily charts at the end of every trading day, the first important pieces of data to pick out are key level price points and candlestick formations. You’re looking for patterns, that might serve as clues for the next directional movement of any specified currency pair.
Price action, moving averages and key levels are displayed on the longer-term charts and these are generally the most significant and strongest. It’s best to take note of these levels at the end of each trading day or morning and then plot them on the charts using the charting tools available in your trading software of choice. Keeping a notepad at hand helps to keep track of the organizational breakdown of your selected currency pairs. Beginning traders should start out with six or seven pairs, then strip each one down, labeling the bullish and bearish indicators for each one on every time frame, starting with the monthly and working your way down to the 2-hour chart.
Timeframe rules are the basic building blocks of all other trading strategies, so it’s important to have a good understanding of them before moving on to more complex methods. Keep it simple, learn the rules, make notes and work with the price action that the market delivers through the charts. In this sense it can be helpful to remind yourself that trading is essentially a financial game between the bulls and bears – the optimists and pessimists in the market – both of whom have the same goal of earning a profit but who achieve it through different means.
Key level placement
Support and resistance levels are one of the most important technical factors in trading. “Key levels” are certain prices for a currency pair which may support the price below the current market level or a price which may resist above the current market level. Support acts as a floor and resistance acts as a ceiling, both of which are “barriers of price.” .
For example, the chart above displays various support and resistance zones. These key levels are major support and resistance areas; they are strong price points which the pair has reacted to a number of times. Currencies tend to react to these specific price points with a surprising degree of consistency. The market can either bounce or break upon the approach of a key level. Many beginning traders struggle due to not drawing key levels onto their charts accurately. Support and resistance are the absolute foundations which hold the ground for various other price action applications. Once a support level has been broken and the bears take control, the price often (but not always) pops back up to that same level from underneath in order to “retest” it once more before a continuation to the downside, and vice versa. Your job as a trader is to pick as side in this battle between support and resistance forces – between bulls and bears. If you pick the right side, then you will make money; of course, you pick the wrong side you will lose it.
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Keylevels
Respect of Trendline Indicates Bears Are Still In ControlUhhhh yeah, I don't see any bullish anything happening here. On none of the higher timeframes. A just in case bull move was shared anywho. Trendline was respected to continue to bearish move to the southside. This is gonna be a good ride. So will trade accordingly.
BEAR TPS:
• 1.73132
• 1.72943
• 1.71354
BULL TPS:
• 1.75772
• 1.76611
• 1.77635
Bearish Continuation LikelyBoth this pair and EURCAD will be bearish as long as the Canadian dollar continues to show strength. Here are the TPs for both. My aim is for it to be bearish. But I move where the market moves.
BEAR TPS:
• 1.73132
• 1.71867
• 1.71354
• 1.69933
BULL TPS:
• 1.74523
• 1.75927
• 1.76611
• 1.77635
Can Remain Bullish If CAD Stays StrongBoth this pair and GBPAD will be bearish as long as the Canadian dollar continues to show strength. Here are the TPs for both. My aim is for it to be bearish. But you I move where the market moves.
BEAR TPS:
• 1.52947
• 1.52680
• 1.50998
• 1.49798
BULL TPS:
• 1.53960
• 1.54582
• 1.55656
• 1.56602
Will The Bullish Run End This Week?Traders drove GOLD into its bullish rally, but does their buying strength stand a chance against the OPEC meetings?
If the USD doesn't show strength after this week's OPEC meetings, this will continue to be bullish. Fundamentals will change the course of this pair this time.
Otherwise, we're going to have a nice trade-off the weekly key level no matter where it goes.
BEAR TPS:
• 1612.96
• 1594.92
• 1579.68
BULL TPS:
• 1629.31
• 1644.64
• 1668.80
Pullback Due This Week Then Possible ContinuationExcuse the arrows not showing a retest.
GBP may keep going bullish since the US is still trying to figure out how to handle the outbreak better. So I am trading to stronger key levels. A pullback may be due for the time being. But after that, I am looking for the bull run to continue. Here are your TPs:
BULL TPs:
• 1.25035
• 1.26663
• 1.27248
• 1.27967
BEAR TPs:
• 1.23310
• 1.22306
• 1.20485
• 1.19224
Surge In Outbreak May Keep This BearishThe outbreak is rapidly spreading in the US with no signs of the slowdown happening yet.
If you haven't been paying attention to this pair lately, it's been making some pretty strong moves each week. I admit that I was even sleeping on this little bit, but not anymore.
This will be one of my top swing trade pairs for the next few weeks or months. I've actually been enjoying is several day rides and I'm going to keep continue to do so. As you may notice, I have bigger targets on despair due to the way it's been moving lately. Here is your TPS:
BULL TPs:
• 0.95716
• 0.96542
• 0.97306
• 0.97942
• 0.98358
• 0.99026
• 0.99673
BEAR TPs:
• 0.94910
• 0.93980
• 0.93476
• 0.92505
• 0.91845
• 0.90554
EURGBP Swing Trade Sell EurGbp is aligning good on the weekly Tf I see a nice crucial level being tapped. If we see the 0.90985 not being broken on the weekly closure we will have a nice hedge fund position swing trade down to the 0.83000 and beyond if level is broken. I am watching this pair very closely.
Gbpjpy short Gbpjpy has been in a sell out mode and is planning on dropping a couple more pips further. I see this pair having no problem going down to it’s weekly support @ the 127.800. We have a nice head and shoulders formation on the 30min timeframe a nice 4 hour shooter star will validate for a strong push to the downside let’s clash!
Gold Is Struggling To Get Past A Daily Key LevelThis actually looks like a slowdown of bullish momentum overall to me. It has rejected the daily SR zone of 1684.68 multiple times and is becoming overbought on higher timeframes. We may see another stutter step before another move toward the downside.
But the Coronavirus procedure here in the U.S. has been flawed due to lack of preparation and the market is been reflecting that. So if we do continue bullish, it'll be because of news on the United States right now.
Here are your TPS:
BEAR TPS:
• 1652.46
• 1635.33
• 1612.96
BULL TPS:
• 1683.62
• 1697.70
• 1720.94
The Short Looks Like It May Continue...Where price is consolidating at on the 4hr became a very thing doji that retested a bearish engulfing candle. This could indicate another small retest before continuation back down or we're just gonna keep plummeting.
I want to see if we're going to keep going past the daily SR zone for 135.674 to the weekly. Or if the temporary long move does occur, will it stop at the monthly zone of 140.009 or not.
Even though I do see a reverse inverted head neck and shoulder formation happening on the weekly, it'll take a while for it to complete the right shoulder. That is, is price doesn't feel like keeping the bearish momentum in play.
Here are the TPs:
BEAR TPS:
• 135.909
• 132.775
• 131.018
BULL TPS:
• 139.393
• 140.009
• 141.288
• 142.510
Bear Momentum May Slow Down This WeekI didn't focus on this pair as much as I wanted to.
So the swan dive that came from this pair looks to be slowing down for just a little bit. Looking for a pullback before continuation. CAD news this week may help it some. So let's see if the momentum has slowed down or not this week.
BULL TPS:
• 80.666
• 81.391
• 82.172 (stretch TP if it can break TP2)
BEAR TPS:
• 79.792
• 78.887
• 78.192