Bitcoin Daily Ichimoku ForecastFuture forecast for the Tenkan (blue - short term moving average), Kijun (orange - long term moving average), & Senkou Spans (cloud - red resistance & green support) is provided on the chart for the daily timeframe.
Kijun
Will Bitcoin Continue To Drop?Looking at the 6D chart with Ichimoku cloud, it definitely seems possible that bitcoin may continue to drop. The way the current candle is hanging from the Kijun does not look very good. There are more support levels that could be tested such as 26k, 18k, 15k.
We should play close attention to the bitcoin price action today along with watching the 4D and 5D charts which have a candle that completes today.
Ichimoku Entries With the TrendWhen using the Ichimoku indicator, it is usually a good idea to enter a trade in the direction of the trend when you see the Tenkan & Kijun close together and when the Tenkan, Kijun, and Cloud have sharp angulation pointing to the future price of the asset.
You can see in the chart that this was the case previously as the price rose, now it could be the same case as we move down in the opposite direction.
Two Possible Correction Paths After 3D Ichimoku TK CrossFirst we take the 1D Kijun line and add it to our 3D chart where we recently observed the TK cross to the downside. This will serve as a major level that we could revisit in the short term.
Second we look for our long term support area. I see this being around 30k due to volume and the long/flat areas of the 3D Kijun and the 3D Cloud.
Third we look for an alternate path if we were to continue to the downside in the short term rather than revisiting the 1D Kijun. This would probably be Senkou Span B which is the bottom of the 3D cloud.
Ultimately, whichever route we take in the short term, should result in a continued consolidation within the 3D cloud before we breakout to the downside towards Long Term Support.
BEARISH TOWARD 87.31PRICE WAS IN TRIANGLE AND NOW TRYING TO BREAK DOWNWARD
WE ARE WAITING FOR ITS STRUGGLE TO END AND GO DOWN TOWARD 87.31 AND THEN 86.59
JXY ANALYSIS IS IMPORTANT AS WE CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE FOR OUR PAIR ANALYSIS WITH WITCH ONE SIDE IS JPY
ANY COMMENTS PLS SHARE
BTC - H4 - TRIANGLE FORMATION IN PROGRESS !!!H4 : Triangle formation in progress.
Currently below Kijun-Sen (57068), Mid Bollinger Band (55759), Tenkan-Sen (55259) and
roughly in the middle of the triangle.
Breakout of the triangle :
BULLISH SCENARIO
Upside breakout would trigger a move of 6398 points towards 63500-63750
BEARISH SCENARIO (expected)
Downside breakout would target 47675-48000
Watch also H1 and M15
BTC - H4 - CURRENTLY IN A TRANSITION ZONE !H4 : The 58400 important support area mentioned yesterday worked perfectly well, coupled
with the failure to breakout both the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen (Base line).
This rejection triggered a nice upside move, once again above the 60'000.. but it did not hold
above it.. so far.
No change in my view, as long as clear breakout of the 60'000 in holding sustainably above it the
downside risk is still present ¨
TWO IMPORTANT LEVEL TO WATCH ON A H4 CLOSING BASIS :
60100 ON THE UPSIDE
58400 ON THE DOWNSIDE
Indeed 2 closing prices above or below one of those levels will show a new trading range for the upcoming
trading hours
Watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will validate or invalidate the expected scenarios
above mentioned.
Have a nice Sunday
All the best
Take care and have fun
BTC- D1 - NICE RECOVERY... AND STILL IN A BEARISH MODE...D1 : After having nearly reached the expected target which were respectively 50187 (61.8% Fib ret) and the
psychological support level of 50'000 in moving down towards an intraday low of 50360, the BTC recovered nicely
towards an intraday high so far of 55597.
This recent price action triggered a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) which on its upside move broke the Kijun-Sen line (currently @ 54037)
but failed on a closing basis, yesterday to move above Tenkan-Sen (currently @ 55158), where we are at the moment.
Interesting that this long bullish candle did not trigger a big volume !!!
Key resistance area on D1 basis, remains Mid Bollinger Band (currently @ 56163) which also coincides with the current downtrend line resistance level.
Therefore, unless a clear breakout of this zone occurs soon, recent and current price action should still be seen as a "NICE" corrective move only.. in a still ongoing bearish picture.
Watch H4 and shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get clues about further intraday development which will allow you to act accordingly.
Have a nice weekend and have fun
All the best
Take care and do not forget, if you like my analysis to like it and follow me
Ironman8848
BTC - D1 - A NEW DOWNTREND IS TAKING PLACE...D1 : Last 2 trading sessions is showing a switch from a BULL mode to a BEAR one.
Indeed, looking at the last 2 closing sessions we can see 2 black candles with
the one of yesterday, closing "timidly" just above Tenkan-Sen (conversion line).
Today's ongoing price action is currently under that level, in having already tested
the secondary uptrend support line.
A new downtrend line (in red) took place and should now, be seen as the level
to break in order to neutralise the current ongoing bearish move; interesting to note
that, the resistance area to break, coincides roughly with the former D1 closing high @ 57500
reached on Feb 21st.
50 % Fib ret (43021-61781) @ 52401 !
CONCLUSION :
In D1 time frame, as long as BTC does not recover and hold above 57500, global picture
should be seen BEARISH.
A failure to hold above both Kijun-Sen (Base line) @ 52401 ahead of Mid Bollinger Band (Leading indicator)
@ 51908 would confirm further downside in opening the door for the 50000 psychological support... which is
also roughly the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement of the 43021-61781 rally (@50187).
Have a nice trading day.
All the best and take care
Ironman@8848
BTC - H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !H4 : Mid Bollinger Band continue to perform very well as the leading indicator
and worked once again perfectly well in rejecting a downside breakout attempt
seen on the last H4 candle.
As long as we stay and hold on H4 closing basis above MBB it is OK; however, a failure
to do it would open a new trading range with its next support around the 58000 area (Kinjun-Sen or Base Line
@ 58025 and also the middle level of the ongoing uptrend channel.
61.8 % Fib ret @ 57597
For scenarios, pls see my previous D1 analysis
BTC - H4 - SHORT TERM REVERSAL ! YES OR NO ?H4 : As expected and mentioned in my previous analysis (W1) published early this morning, a corrective
and healthy downside move took place and reached an intraday low, so far at 59350, close to the 38.2% Fibonacci
Retracement @ 59194 ! Last H4 closing candle triggered a doji pattern which is showing some uncertainty about
the upcoming hours. In addition, you can see that at current level, the BTC is again reenter in the uptrend channel.
Therefore, I would suggest, to watch carefully, the following levels :
BULLISH :
Consider 61000-61100 as the first short term resistance area which, in order to neutralise the ongoing dowside risk;
indeed, an upside breakout confirmed of this zone would be the first signal that the correction has been short lived
and is over and would open the door for a retest of the previous high @ 61781.
BEARISH :
* S1 : 59194 (38.2% Fib ret) and also the top level of the broadening wedge pattern !
* S2 : 58931 (Tenkan-Sen & Conversion line)
*** S3 : 58396 & 58342 (50% Fib ret - Mid Bollinger Band
Interesting to note the former congestion zone resistance (56500-57500) which is becoming now, a new support zone (57500-56500) !
Watch development on shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get early signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly.
Have a nice afternoon.
All the best
Take care
Ironman8848
BTC - H4 - TENKAN-SEN UNDER ATTACK !H4 : After the strong triangle breakout and as expected BTC lost momentum and last candle triggered a bearish engulfing pattern.
For the time being, the first support (Tenkan-Sen) hold; nevertheless, technical indicators are switching from the sideways to the
downside which may be the first signal (s) of a short term trend reversal.
A failure to hold above TS @ 53554 would put the focus on MBB @ 51992 (roughly the level of the triangle breakout, such kind of
correction would complete the expected pullback and if occurs, it should be seen as the REAL TEST of a successful upside breakout.
Indeed, it is crucial, in order, to maintain the bullish tone, to stay and hold above 51500 (Kijun-Sen) as a failure to do it would invalidate the triangle pattern
and reopen the door for lower levels.
Watch shorter time frames H1 and M15 to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to act accordingly.
Have a nice trading day.
All the best
Have fun and take care.
BTC - D1 - INTRADAY HIGH @ 55855, BUT...D1 : Another long white bullish candle has been triggered yesterday; today's ongoing price action
is showing, for the time being another kind of picture. Indeed, after having, on one hand filled the Fibonacci
retracement extension (78.6% @ 55072) and even pushing higher to an intraday high of 55855, BTC has been rejected
by the former primary uptrend support trend line, which became a resistance. As a result, BTC reversed and is currently
traded in the middle of the new uptrend channel in an ongoing bearish price action.
Nevertheless, as we are on D1 observation, we need to wait the level today's closing to get confirmation of the upcoming development.
SCENARIO A : BEARISH
A daily closing below 53678 would trigger a dark cloud cover pattern which would already be the first signal of a trend reversal and a closing
below the opening of yesterday's session @ 52427 would trigger a bearish engulfing pattern.
A failure to hold above the former pivot level of 51530 would put the focus on the first significant support area, which is the cluster
of the three following : Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band, being respectively @ 51074, 50687 and 50666.
SCENARIO B : BULLISH
A daily closing above yesterday's closing would be supportive for further upside having in mind a retest of the top zone of February (58000-58350)
BTCUSD - H1/M15 - SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL !H1 : Bearish divergence (RSI) triggered a short term reversal, pushing down the BTC in the former uptrend channel.
Currently below TS, MBB and KS.
Watch clouds as the next significant support area
On the upside, in order to neutralise the ongoing short term bearish price action, BTC should quickly recover above the
cluster of KS, MBB and TS.
M15 : Below the clouds in a ongoing downtrend price action
BTCUSD - H4 : CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...H4 : Currently in the middle of the clouds and below the Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen !
As mentioned earlier in my D1 analysis, the H4 clouds support zone, so far, worked perfectly
well in rejecting 5 times breakout attempts...
Current price action is showing a sideways move between Tenkan-Sen level on the downside
and MBB & Kijun-Sen on the upside.
Therefore, on short term, those area should be watch at very carefully as a breakout of one of those
area will show the direction for the upcoming trading period.
The clouds should also be considered as a good indicator as we should see soon or later either an upside or
a downside breakout.
For the time being, recent and current price action is likely to trigger a downside breakout of the clouds.
In order to monitor intermediate price action in waiting the next H4 closing, watch carefully H1 and M15
to get early signal of change in the expected bearish scenario.
Have a nice weekend, have fun, all the best and take care
Hope my analysis bring you some added value in your trading decision and if you like it, many thanks to give me a like
and also add me in your following list.
BTCUSD - D1/H4 - MID BOLLINGER BAND AS THE LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Mid Bollinger Band remains "THE" leading indicator.
Indeed, after having closed, before yesterday above MBB, the failure, yesterday to confirm it, triggered a new selling pressure
and as a result, the previous bullish candle has been neutralized by a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday which close below MBB;
Today's ongoing candle is pointing to the SOUTH, currently below both Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen having already reached an intraday
low of 46294 early this morning.
In order to neutralise this ongoing bearish price action, BTC should at least recover firstly above KS @ 48200 and then much more important
above MBB @ 50019 and expecially hold and stay above it.
It is not a surprise that MBB coincides roughly with the psychological level of 50'000, former support level which becomes now the new resistance
level to break !
In this time frame, once again, today's closing will be very important.
H4 : Currently trying to breakdown the support line of the downtrend channel.
Clouds worked well so far as support zone in rejecting a first breakout attempt.
Globally picture remains heavy and for the time being on this time frame, it looks more
a SELL on rally than a BUY on dips.
In order to neutralise the downside risk in this time frame, BTC need, firstly to recover above the resistance line of the downtrend
channel and secondly above MBB and hold above it
As usual watch H1 and M15 to get intermediate clue in shorter time frames.
Have a great trading day and please, if you like my analysis, do not forget to like it and add my on your following list.
Ironman8848
BTC -D1/H4 - WATCH MID BOLLINGER BAND AS LEADING INDICATOR !D1 : Strong upside move towards an intraday high of 52652 seen yesterday with a closing
level slightly above MBB.
Today's price action is currently below the psychological level of 50000.
Once again, today's closing will be important for the coming session (s)
H4 : Failure to hold above the clouds resistance, triggered a new selling pressure, pushing the BTC
down again, towards, so far, the middle of the clouds, which is also MBB on this time frame !
Therefore, MBB (@ 49000) should be seen as the first support ahead of KS (@ 47836) and slightly
lower, the clouds bottom zone
Global picture in H4 could be resume as follow :
UPSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 50000 - 52650
DOWNSIDE PIVOT ZONE : 45300 - 43000
Watch carefully H1 and M15 for intermediate clues
Keylevels to watch for Bitcoin/DollarThe $51684.9 level is a strong S/R line because this corresponds to a Kijun Sen flat line and Senkou Span B flat line.
We can see that the current 4-Hour japanese candlestick has its high that corresponds to this $51684.9 value.
In an uptrend scenario, the keylevels to watch are :
$51684
$52679
$53668
The price might go down to $50004 (H3 Tenkan sen flat line + Kijun sen flat line) before going uptrend again.
$50004 might be a strong support for the price.
BTC - H1/M15 - IN A SHORT TERM BEAR TREND....H1 : 61.8% Fibonacci retracement filled @ 49201 (intraday low so far @ 49000)
Last candle (bullish engulfing) might trigger a recovery
In order to invalidate the ongoing bearish price action, BTC needs to recover
above MBB currently @ 50784 and also above the downtrend line resistance.
On the downside, clouds zone should be watch as the first support area.
M15: Below the clouds and below MBB, looks like a corrective move in a short term bear
trend.
Watch MBB @ 50374 as the first significant resistance level to break.
A failure to hold above 49000 (today's low) would put the focus on clouds support
zone (48500-48000) ahead of 47069 (March 2nd low).
BTCUSD - D1H4 - CLUSTER 49900-50300 D1 & CLOUDS H4D1 : Very strong price action occurred yesterday by one of the longest white candle (BULLISH ENGULFING) seen so far (Opening 45262 / Closing 49629 + 4367 / + 9.64 %), similar
to the one seen on Feb 19th (Opening 51560 / Closing 55989 + 4429 / + 8.59 %).
Today's price action triggered an intraday high so far @ 50250 which is roughly the level of Tenkan-Sen (conversion line) and which should also, as Mid Bollinger
Band, be seen as very important level to break.
Therefore this "cluster" (49900-50300) should be watch carefully on D1 basis for ongoing structural development.
The key pivot level remains 51530 and a clear breakout of that level would clearly open the door for a retest of the highs above 58000.
On the downside a failure to hold above Kijun-Sen @ 47486 would put the focus again on 45000-43000
H4 : After having broken respectively, Tenkan-Sen, Mid Bollinger Band and Kijun-Sen, BTC is now facing a new obstacle to breakout which is : THE CLOUDS !
Indeed, as mentioned yesterday in this dynamic recovery it reached first the 38.2% Fib ret @ 48878 and then nearly filled in the 50 % Fib ret @ 50687 with an
intraday high, so far @ 50250.
OUTLOOK :
UPSIDE, the clouds are clearly the zone to break and which is the case would put the focus on the D1 key pivot level @ 51530 ahead of the 61.8%
Fib ret @ 52496
DOWNSIDE, the "cluster" (TS, MBB, KS) respectively @ 47213, 46777 and 46635 should be seen as the first significant area.
Have a nice trading day and if you like my analysis do not forget to like it and add Ironman8848 in your following list.
BTCUSD - H4 - BREAKOUT ATTEMPT OF THE DOWNTREND CHANNEL TOP...H4 : Last candle closed slightly up, above the top of the downtrend channel line and also
above Mid Bollinger Band (46091).
Nevertheless, this breakout, for the time being looks very fragile and we need to wait
the next H4 closing for confirmation.
Indeed, an upside breakout confirmation would then open the door for 47550 which is the
level of Kijun-Sen in H4.
On the opposite, a failure to hold above the top of the downtrend channel, would, again put the
focus on lower level with Tenkan-Sen as a first support (45298).
Global picture remains heavy as we are still under the clouds.
Watch H1 for clues
BTC - D1 - DOWNTREND CHANNEL INTACT !D1 : Global picture is showing a downtrend channel still in place.
In addition, for the time being, the ongoing recovery attempt price action
failed, so far, to recover above Kijun-Sen (47275) which is the first level to break
in order to neutralise the remaining bearish price action.
A move above Kijun-Sen would be the first step to confirm a potential further
upside move, as above Mid Bollinger Band (49523) which worked perfectly well
in the past as a very important support level (leading indicator !), should be seen, now, as a strong resistance to break to change the mode
from bearish to bullish.
Watch H4 for clues.
BTC/USD - D1 - YESTERDAY'S CLOSING TRIGGERED A DOJI PATTERN !D1 : In a broad bear trend downtrend channel, yesterday's price action triggered a "doji", which close
just above the important support level of Kijun-Sen.
Today's ongoing price action, broke KS and former low of 44151 in reaching a new intraday low @ 43782 !
Indicators are still pointing to the South.
In addition, current price action is showing that BTC is traded below the middle of the donwtrend channel.
Next important support to look at is @ 43577 (50% Fib ret) and a breakout of that level would put directly the
focus on the 42000 area (former high of Jan 8th) ahead of the psychological level of 40'000 (40089 being the
61.8% Fib ret)
Last but not least the 43500-40000 is very fragile (long white bullish candle of Feb 8th, thanks to Elon !) and therefore
should be quickly broken...
In order to neutralise the current downside risk in this bearish price action, BTC should recover at least above KS, currently @ 46868.
Watch and monitor carefully H4, H1, M15 and M5 for intermediate validation or invalidation of this expected bearish scenario
