Halo Time Before The Kill Zone! SPX Morning Notes 04/17/19Morning Notes 04/17/19 Sentiment Timing Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Neutral/Bearish
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Hi Everyone,
Futures are getting another push higher this morning, which should come as no surprise as it has become the norm. I don't believe it will be a gap omen set up, but yesterday's omen played out fairly quickly. Remember, that TRADE set up calls for the gap to get filled if it gaps to new highs. We still have the open gap omen at 2889 that I believe will get filled as well. The other plethora of gaps below may not be gap omens, but if history is our guide, they will get filled as well. But that may not come until the "Kill Zone" time frame Woody has identified.
We are in the "Halo" time period as Woody pointed out in yesterday's newsletter and traders who want in are being forced to either buy at the end of the day, hoping for another gap higher open or chase the gap higher. This is how the "Kill Zone" sets traders up. They become hypnotized at the non-stop gap higher opens and when they all decide to just jump in, the overnight buyers turn into sellers and we see the bid removed and a mad rush for the exits.
My preferred pattern is looking for some type of sharp drop that finds support and comes back up towards these highs, as we enter the "Kill Zone" time period. That top may end up being a test of the highs left behind or a slight break above. That would be the move that gets everybody just jumping in as sellers are waiting in the winds. I still like a test of the 2700 for the quick move lower, but obviously these overnight buyers have to slow down their panic buying before that set up has a chance. These gaps are NOT bullish when all is said and done and the bulls that have an exit strategy aren't picking up that they all have the same exit strategy and why we see these melt ups followed by panic selling so often.
The range SPX range for today is 2916 high and 2907 low. (Gap Numbers) A break of 2916 the spx should try for 2919/2923. A push below 2907 we could see 2900/2892. G
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2916 R2-2919 R3 2923
Support Levels: S1-2907 S2-2900 S3 2892
Trending Pivots: Neutral
Killzone
GOLD - Bat Pattern & Ab=CD PullbackJust took a look at this with our live room members, but we have a potential bullish bat formation lining up with an ab=cd pattern coming right into a killzone that we had drawn out from the higher timeframe. I'm not expecting a continuation trade out of this one due to where price is located, but i would expect to see some sort of reaction at that level.
Akil
Happy Champions League Match Day
Killzone on USDJPYHey guys,
this is my daily outlook on USDJPY. As you can see price has come back to test previous support zone that once is broken should turn into resistance. As of now, price has already showed some rejection signals, but it's not enough.
Watching closely to 1HR and 4HR in order to find shorting opportunities.
Keep you updated.
If you want to share your view, or ask questions, feel free to comment below.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
EURJPY - Potential Trend Trade on the RadarThe JPY pairs have been great for us in April (and there goes the Jinx) and after allowing for some relief I'm now looking for areas to hop back on the short side.
The EURJPY is currently approaching a Killzone & has recently gone from an over sold to over bought swing.
I'll be paying close attention to price action & looking for a potential move down to the 116.50's & 115 levels, retesting previous levels of structure.
ABCD Pattern completion As you can see after a completion of a successful Advanced Cypher Pattern price has been retesting previous support levels and putting in lower low lower closes. looking for the D Leg (equal measured move from A Leg to B Leg) to complete in between the 1.414 & 1.618 which is a fib extension (from the A to B leg). also have a previous support level there so going to be patient and wait for price action to move into my zone and look to go long
USDJPY: Double 2618 Chart From This Week's FMPHere's the chart of the trade that we went over in today's Forex market Preview video. If you didn't see it, make sure you get over to youtube & do so, but what we're looking at is a double 2618 opportunity.
The bigger potential 2618 is located on the daily timeframe while the smaller one exist on the 4 hour.
This chart is of the hourly timeframe where we took a look at how one can dig deeper into the analysis if looking for a more conservative entry at a higher price point.
Decision point on USDJPYHi traders,
another of my daily analysis here on tradingview. In this case i've outlined a blue box around a structure level (black line). This zone seems to be often respected when price touches it, so i'm going to be very careful and pay attention as soon as markets open for price is almost in the reversal zone.
Let me know if you have a similar setup.
See you in the next chart!
Trend continuation setup on NZDUSDHi guys,
after the Trump's election we've had big uncertain moves. Of course in that situation you, as a structure trader, don't want to be involved. Now price is slowly calming down and so we can redo our analysis and we can end this week of trading, hopefully with some pips.
This setup is on the daily chart and it is a trend continuation setup: this means that we are recently broke the resistance to the high, giving us reasons to believe the trend is upward.
The first zone we have to keep an eye on is the previous resistance that could act a support, then we're waiting into the bottom of the last impulsive move.
In this two zones we're going to search for some lower timeframes opportunities in order to get long.
Hope this helps.
Don't hesitate to ask if you need to.
Good luck!
EURUSD - 2618 Setup+++ Don't forget to LIKE & Follow+++After yesterday's big upward move, now price is in a correction mode on 4H, EURUSD.
Price is heading lower to test our structure shelf - presenting to us a potential 2618 Bullish Setup. This will be nice opportunity for all of you conservative traders.
If you look left price didn't break current structure level @ 1.1130s, we only got Double Bottom.
This Double Bottom is the foundation for our 2618 Setup.
Price is giving us nice kill zone and alignment of 0.618% and the inverse "V" of the DB.
I'm expecting price to enter in the KillZone and I'll wait for an entry reason.
Stops below DB, 1st target will be previous cycle top - I'll trail 2n position.
Good Luck!
-Alex
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EURJPY - Bullish 2618+++ Don't forget to LIKE & Follow+++I have my eyes on a potential Bullish 2618 Setup on 15M here on EURJPY, and I think this is perfect counter trend trading opportunity .
You may ask why?
We don't only have a conservative entry reason in the face of this 2618 but we can stack on it.
The Double Bottom(foundation of 2618 Setup) is right at Structure Low - look left on HTF (1H).
The 0.618% is right at the V of the Double Bottom - and our kill zone start from there.
Not to mention that on left Bottom we have a RSI under 20 with a RSI DIV on 2nd Bottom.
You can enter aggressively right @ 0.618 or you can look for alternative entry reason - either way you choose you'll get more than 1:1 Risk/Reward.
No matter how perfect this setup is, stops are below this Double Bottom and 1st Target Retest of the cycle high - you can shoot 113.30 for 2nd Target.
Good Luck!
-Alex
I'm a Professional Currency Trader & Mentor with years of trading experience.
Download my Free Ebook & transform your trading Today! bit.ly
If you'd like to see more good trading ideas from me, click the "Like" button!
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EURUSD - Trend Continuation Price drops right at previous structure level and bounce from it - like a magic :)
I'm closely watching the kill zone(derived from the several bounces of price) because it will provide nice level for hopping on the bullish trend.
I need price to make another retest of the zone and this forming a double bottom - with left bottom being with RSI OB.
Stop will be really tight ... and see what risk/reward factor we've made. You can shoot for 2nd target next strucutre level (blue dotted line)
EURUSD KILLZONE for SHORTING - FIB CONFLUENCE and ABCD After breaking several structure levels, i began to analyse this chart with a bearish motive - the kill zone in red has been drawn after finding ratio confluence and ABCD harmonic move. Stops above the kill zone and structure; target 1 @ fibonacci ratio 382. already in profit
EURJPY Daily Chart w/Bat PatternThis is just a outlook for the EURJPY over the next couple of months. I'm more of a swing/day trader and focus mainly on the 5/15/60min charts. However, I do zoom out to the Daily everyday & the Weekly & Monthly once a week. It's good to see where the underlying trend is so you know which side you want to be more aggressive on at KEY levels.
Right now, BIGGER picture, EURJPY is in a Downtrend. However, we are currently recovering off multi-year lows in the form of a complex pullback. So when I'm swing trading down on the 60min chart we are in a Bullish uptrend as we Retrace on the Daily time frame... Follow me? It's important to keep that in mind.
With all that in mind... I'm looking to buy pullbacks down on the Lower Time Frames (5/15/60min charts) until we get up to the Kill Zone where my bias will shift to neutral/Bearish (I will explain that in moment) since we will be at an important decision point in the Market. By that I mean; will the bears take back control and push the market back down in trend? Or will the Bulls fight for control and reverse this long downtrend? You can think of the Kill Zone as the Bull/Bear Zone. By default we do have to give edge to the Bears inside that zone because we are in a downtrend, so that's why my bias will be neutral-to-bearish.
More Technical's - There's a Bear Bat that forms inside the Kill Zone. An ABCD Pattern completes right at the bottom of the Kill Zone.
Happy Trading!
Kenny Pate
GERMAN DAX LIKELY TO TEST RECENT LOWS: REVERSED IN KILL ZONEWhile coming in our kill-zone the DAX touched twice the recent 38,2 % Fibonacci Retracment. It is likely to test the lows at around 8850's. (lowest close).
This is just the overall expectation. Now it's our job to find nice risk/reward short entries.
Good luck!
Felix
USDJPY Potential Cypher At Reversal ZoneIF price action pushes higher past our B leg of the cypher pattern THEN we can look to get short at the D point 122.79.
However IF price rolls over creating a new low & puts in a LLLC THEN the cypher pattern will be invalid and we'll look to the next trading opportunity.
FOMC news out tomorrow.
BEARISH EURUSD 1H: Bearish price action in kill zone.BEARISH EURUSD 1H: Support becoming resistance. Bearish price action in kill zone.
(Analysis Based on 1 hour chart)
Observations
1. Long term down channel
2. Short term up channel being retested
3. Price at daily swing low
4. Overbought RSI at 1H swing high
NOTE: Wait for price action to confirm the importance of these levels.
NOTE: This is a counter trend oppertunity based on my daily outlook
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BEARISH EURUSD 1H: Support becoming resistance.BEARISH EURUSD 1H: Support becoming resistance. Wait for bearish price action.
(Analysis Based on 1 hour chart)
Criteria
1. Sell at daily Support/Resistance
2. Sell at daily swing low
3. Sell at channel high
NOTE: Wait for price action to confirm the importance of these levels.
NOTE: This is a counter trend oppertunity based on my daily outlook
GBPJPY SHORT: 3 Harmonic Patterns + Wolfe Wave + PivotsGBPAUD may potentially complete 3 bearish advanced patterns which would all be confluent with a bearish Wolfe Wave setup. To add to the bearish bias, an unhit weekly pivot sits below price. This provides for a nice target since it coincides with .618CD. SL is placed above X.
KILL ZONE CONFLUENCE:
Bearish cypher pattern completion
2.24AB=CD (cypher)
1.618BC projection (cypher)
Bearish bat pattern completion
1.272AB=CD (bat)
1.618BC projection (bat)
Bearish crab pattern completion
1.618AB=CD (crab)
2.382BC projection (crab)
Bearish Wolfe Wave setup
Unhit weekly pivot below price
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EURUSD: Potential Bullish Cypher Pattern & Why I'm Waiting It's a busy Monday in the Markets as we're seeing a lot of corrections from last week's major news event. I've got a lot on my radar including potential longs on GBPJPY & AUDUSD. As well as a few potential shorts on GBPJPY & USDJPY. In fact the USDJPY may be filled already on a bearish Cypher .
Speaking of Cyphers we have a potential bullish Cypher here on the EURUSD down at 1.1165. Now because the risk is beyond my acceptable levels (100pips) I won't be able to enter aggressively at the D completion, rather I'll have to wait until I get an alternate reason inside the Kill Zone. in the future I'll be able to simple move my entries down to a level that will put me within that 100pips zone however I do have "rules" about when I can change "rules" so that can't happen until the end of the quarter.
There looks to be lots of movement in the market which means lots of opportunities, so i'm excited about the week ahead. I'm also excited about some testing that I'll be doing trying to "break" a level III system to make sure all of the bugs are out. Admit it you'd be excited to if someone have you a sledge hammer and said "swing away"
Good luck out there traders and thanks for all of the kind comments from this past week's Weekend Review video. The speech that Jason Stapleton gave was great and hopefully it had an affect on your trading mindset! (Here's the link www.youtube.com)
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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EURUSD: Been Waiting All Week & Finally Got My ReasonAfter stalking the EURUSD this entire week, price action has finally made its way down into my kill zone and has also given me a reason to get long in the form of a bullish bat pattern that completed during the early London session.
There are so many ways to take targets on this trade and instead of laying them all out I’ll just ask you these questions. Why are you involved in the trade (advanced pattern or trend continuation)? And (of course) What do your rules say to do?
I know you guys hate hearing that, but hey, that’s the reality of trading. Each of us are different and as I tell my clients, your trading style should match your personality making it fit you like a fine tailored suit.
BIG NEWS OUT AT 8:30 eastern! We’ve got USD: Advance GDP, Trade Balance & Unemployment. This should certainly give us some action early on in the New York session so be careful. The underlying market sentiment still looks to be very bullish the USD especially since yesterday’s (lack of hawkish tone) FOMC statement showed little movement before being shaken off my the market.
Yesterday’s USDCAD didn’t go my way and if you’d like to read about it here’s the link to my trading blog. tradeempowered.com
Also it’s Thursday so that means my weekly video is coming out so make sure you head over to YouTube and SUBSCRIBE to my channel, that way you don’t miss it. I’ll most likely be talking about dealing with failing strategies and looking at equity curves…we’ll see. Good luck today traders and let’s ROCK the markets on this wonderful Thursday!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
GBPUSD: The Week Ahead (Day 5)On Thursday the GBPUSD broke a very important structure level around the 1.58 even handle. Since that moment I had to redo my I.P.D.E. and shift my focus from a potential short at that area, to a potential long to hop on the underlying trend. In yesterday’s update I told you guys that I was looking for a retracement and you know what it looks like we’ve got one, or are in the process of getting one.
I initially thought we had a Bat pattern completion setting up but our “B” leg comes in a little too deep. So shifting back to harmonics and structure an AB=CD pattern would put us right at our previous outside return, which lines up right with that structure level that was broken earlier in the week. We have a minor Fibonacci retracement down there as well (for those using the CTS) but the main thing is structure at that key level. Could be a demand zone as well for those who are into that.
Technically the “A-Kill” zone starts a little bit higher at the 1.5850’s levels, but I think the lower level will provide the least amount of risk. Either way if you’re a trend following trader and believe that this market is going to continue bullish then both levels would be buying at a bargain price.
Hope you guys enjoyed this week of walking through a single chart. My question for you guys is next week would you like me to continue with this same pair, or pick something different? Please let me know and if there’s a pair you have in mind shoot me those ideas and I’ll pick one over the weekend.
Have a great end of the week, and if you missed my ideas on USDCAD, GBPAUD and the Short Film that I shared representing the everyday battle that is trading. Make sure you check out my latest trading video. www.youtube.com
Until next week traders, Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan and have a fantastic weekend!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com