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NZDCHF 24th MAY 2022The New Zealand dollar's performance in response to this week's policy meeting will likely depend on whether the RBNZ signals that a bigger 50bp hike is more likely at its upcoming policy meeting. The underlying case for further policy tightening in New Zealand remains compelling. The latest CPI and labor market reports both continue to reveal building inflationary pressures.The New Zealand dollar's performance in response to this week's policy meeting will likely depend on whether the RBNZ signals that a bigger 50bp hike is more likely at its upcoming policy meeting. Without such hawkish policy signals, the kiwi risks disappointment.
Long
by DNP-FX
AUDNZD: A Buy Setup Targeting the Previous HighLast week, AUDNZD has reached a new high at the 1.1100 level. The trend of AUDNZD is persistent; when the price has reached a new high, that means the trend will not easily reverse for a period of time. Therefore, we are looking for buy entries to capture any retracement from the previous high. The price has retraced to 1.0980 level,which is the previous resistance level from where the price broke up. From the 1.0980 level, we can see that the price has formed a double bottom pattern, followed by the price breaking the neckline area. Then, we can see that the price further broke the descending trend line. Therefore, a strong bullish momentum has taken place at this level. We are waiting for the price to retrace to the neckline area. From there, we will enter buy positions and target the recent high of 1.1100 level
Long
by NicoBeau_Capital
Joe Gun2Head Trade - NZDUSD Lower prices expectedTrade Idea: NZDUSD Lower prices expected Reasoning: Downtrend picking up momentum. Entry Level: 0.6321 Take Profit Level: 0.6237 Stop Loss: 0.6349 Risk/Reward: 2.97:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
GBPNZD Trade IdeaA short trade opportunity has just presented itself on the GBPNZD trading chart! This is evident from the bearish inverted pin bar candlestick which closes just below the 1.94773 daily horizontal resistance level and signals a rejection of the price level. A stop at 1.95186 (about 45.1 pips) and a target at 1.92400 (about 233.5 pips) could see you in the region of a 5.18 reward-to-risk ratio. As always, "Look first, then leap." Happy trading! Your FX Plug
Short
by charles-okoukoni
AUDNZD: A Sharp Price Rejection from the Key Resistance LevelAUDNZD has reached a key resistance level of 1.1000, followed by an immediate sharp price rejection (a doji star plus a large bearish engulfing candle). Since 2020, all two long-term bearish reversals have occurred from this level. However, we know that the trend of AUDNZD is persistent. Therefore, we want to make sure that a reversal has actually occured before throwing in sell positions. It is good to enter the market late but right rather than early but wrong. Entry Criteria: After a rejection from the 1.1000 level, the price has reached a support level of 1.8000-1.8200. From here, we expect the price to bounce up again to retest the high, or if not, the 1.0900 level. If a reversal has really taken a place, then the price should break the support area of 1.0800, plus a daily candle closing below that support level. Only then, we can prepare our sell entries at the neckline area to capture the retest and ride the wave down to the first target of 1.0600 level.
Short
by NicoBeau_Capital
NZDUSD 7th APRIL 2022Do you believe in strong dollars? Fundamentally, the USD is under inflationary pressure, especially in America. Biden continues to urge the Fed to immediately fight inflation. Jerome Powell has taken step by step since the end of 2021, the fed is considering QE then tapering it from 15M to double it 3 times, then in early 2022 the fed also raises the interest rate by 25bps. What is the impact? of course the USD will strengthen against other currencies. However, this has little impact on commodities-USD. Therefore, we can look for opportunities from the pair against the USD which have a chance to be corrected. Here I found an opportunity for NZDUSD. Technically, there is a Daily resistance area that cannot be breakout. The bearish trend will be perfectly seen if there is a release of good economic data for America. This is my OANDA:NZDUSD trading plan, how about you?
Short
by DNP-FX
NZDUSD: A Slight Retrace In Price Before Heading to 70 Cents ?NZDUSD is still on course to likely hit 70 cents! With both NZD and USD weakening so far this week, this pair has been falling suggesting that the NZD is on heavy sell. However this represents a chance to go LONG on this pair since the criteria has already been fulfilled (Observe main chart for all details). Therefore it is suggested to await for the price to retrace and hit the ideal entry point before taking this trade LONG. However shall the 70 cents target be hit first then the trade becomes invalidated Have a read at the above link for the complete analysis behind this setup. The current insight is for the traders that have not been able to get into this trade earlier. Now the chance might likely represent to take this trade long. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on Major & Minor currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD | Live position reviewThe identification of a reversal pattern around 0.695 area is a signal that there is a risk of a further decline in the price of the Kiwi. Find in the video how I intend to take advantage of the potential downtrend. I thought I publicly shared a publication on my bearish bias but unfortunately, I do not have it anymore, please bear with me. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy More hawkish than expected can sum up the February RBNZ policy decision. Even though the bank delivered a 25bsp hike and did not surprise with a 50bsp hike (probability was at 30% before the meeting), they managed to surprise markets with their upgraded projections and plans for QT. Markets were anticipating the bank to take a passive QT route by ceasing reinvestments, but instead announced that they will start to sell their bond holdings from July. Furthermore, markets were looking for the bank to upgrade their OCR terminal rate projection to between 2.8%-3.0% from 2.6% but instead increased it 3.4%, essentially adding another 3 hikes to their forecasts for the current hiking cycle. With the latest decision the RBNZ has once again showed that it’s the most hawkish central bank among the majors. However, price action will tell whether it’s been enough to finally see the markets giving the NZD the upside it deserves. 2. Economic and health developments The economic outlook looks solid for New Zealand, with growth expected to accelerate, inflation expected to stay high, home prices still close to 30%, commodity prices doing well, and now also a ratified trade deal with China that is expected to open up more Chinese markets for New Zealand goods. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD. 4. CFTC Analysis Positioning changes has been very limited for the NZD in the past few weeks with major market participants all still holding onto net-short positions but roughly in the middle of the pack across all three. For now, positioning isn’t giving us many signals as to whether the next leg is more likely to be higher or lower for the NZD. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will have implications for the pace of hikes (more and faster). Furthermore, he explained that there is ‘quite a bit of room’ to raise rates without damaging employment, which suggests upside risks to the rate path. A big question going into the meeting was how concerned the Fed was about recent equity market volatility . But the Chair explained that markets and financial conditions are reflecting policy changes in advance and that in aggregate the measures they look at isn’t showing red lights. Thus, any ‘Fed Put’ is much further away and inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern right now. The Chair also didn’t rule out the possibility of a 50bsp hike in March or possibly hiking at every meeting this year, which was hawkish as it means the Fed wants optionality to move more aggressive if they need to. We didn’t get new info on the balance sheet and Powell reiterated that they’re contemplating a start of QT after hiking has begun and they’ll discuss this in coming meetings. Overall, the tone and language were a lot more hawkish than the Dec meeting and more hawkish than consensus was expecting. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slow (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown (and possible stagflation) are good for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightening into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, once the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis The USD remains a net-long across major participants, but with price action looking stretched and with peak hawkishness for the Fed arguably close with >6 hikes priced, the risk to reward of chasing USD strength is not very attractive right now. Continued stagflation and geopolitical risks it mean that stretched positioning might not be as important as usual. JP Morgan also shared some stats that suggest the USD has a historical tendency to strengthen in the 6 months going into a first hike but then to weaken during the 6 months directly after a first hike. This is an interesting phenomenon which is worth keeping in mind given the USD’s recent performance.
by thunderpips
1
NZDUSD: 70 Cents A Likely Target For The KIWI After Breakout!Price is at a critical resistance level! The 0.68600 level needs to be cleared for the price to target the next high which happens to be the psychological resistance of 70 Cents. Looking at the main daily chart, the descending channel although violated, has not really been broken. The resistance at 0.68600 is preventing this from being a reality. Once the daily candle closes above this level, we can likely assume that the resistance has been broken and the price is ready to climb further supported by the ascending trendline. An ideal 1:1 risk to reward ratio needs to be balanced for the trade to be executed. With both take profit and stop loss visible on the main chart, the entry point needs to be adjusted ideally to match 1:1 RR. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more regular insights into other major currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis