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Kiwi

NZDUSD: A Slight Retrace In Price Before Heading to 70 Cents ?NZDUSD is still on course to likely hit 70 cents! With both NZD and USD weakening so far this week, this pair has been falling suggesting that the NZD is on heavy sell. However this represents a chance to go LONG on this pair since the criteria has already been fulfilled (Observe main chart for all details). Therefore it is suggested to await for the price to retrace and hit the ideal entry point before taking this trade LONG. However shall the 70 cents target be hit first then the trade becomes invalidated Have a read at the above link for the complete analysis behind this setup. The current insight is for the traders that have not been able to get into this trade earlier. Now the chance might likely represent to take this trade long. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more insights on Major & Minor currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD | Live position reviewThe identification of a reversal pattern around 0.695 area is a signal that there is a risk of a further decline in the price of the Kiwi. Find in the video how I intend to take advantage of the potential downtrend. I thought I publicly shared a publication on my bearish bias but unfortunately, I do not have it anymore, please bear with me. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy More hawkish than expected can sum up the February RBNZ policy decision. Even though the bank delivered a 25bsp hike and did not surprise with a 50bsp hike (probability was at 30% before the meeting), they managed to surprise markets with their upgraded projections and plans for QT. Markets were anticipating the bank to take a passive QT route by ceasing reinvestments, but instead announced that they will start to sell their bond holdings from July. Furthermore, markets were looking for the bank to upgrade their OCR terminal rate projection to between 2.8%-3.0% from 2.6% but instead increased it 3.4%, essentially adding another 3 hikes to their forecasts for the current hiking cycle. With the latest decision the RBNZ has once again showed that it’s the most hawkish central bank among the majors. However, price action will tell whether it’s been enough to finally see the markets giving the NZD the upside it deserves. 2. Economic and health developments The economic outlook looks solid for New Zealand, with growth expected to accelerate, inflation expected to stay high, home prices still close to 30%, commodity prices doing well, and now also a ratified trade deal with China that is expected to open up more Chinese markets for New Zealand goods. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD usually benefits from overall positive risk sentiment as well as environments that benefit pro-cyclical assets. Thus, both short-term (immediate) and med-term (underlying) risk sentiment will always be a key consideration for the NZD. 4. CFTC Analysis Positioning changes has been very limited for the NZD in the past few weeks with major market participants all still holding onto net-short positions but roughly in the middle of the pack across all three. For now, positioning isn’t giving us many signals as to whether the next leg is more likely to be higher or lower for the NZD. USD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The Jan FOMC decision was hawkish on multiple fronts. The statement signalled a March hike as expected, but Chair Powell portrayed a very hawkish tone. Even though Powell said they can’t predict the rate path with certainty, he stressed the economy is in much better shape compared to the 2015 cycle and that will have implications for the pace of hikes (more and faster). Furthermore, he explained that there is ‘quite a bit of room’ to raise rates without damaging employment, which suggests upside risks to the rate path. A big question going into the meeting was how concerned the Fed was about recent equity market volatility . But the Chair explained that markets and financial conditions are reflecting policy changes in advance and that in aggregate the measures they look at isn’t showing red lights. Thus, any ‘Fed Put’ is much further away and inflation is the Fed’s biggest concern right now. The Chair also didn’t rule out the possibility of a 50bsp hike in March or possibly hiking at every meeting this year, which was hawkish as it means the Fed wants optionality to move more aggressive if they need to. We didn’t get new info on the balance sheet and Powell reiterated that they’re contemplating a start of QT after hiking has begun and they’ll discuss this in coming meetings. Overall, the tone and language were a lot more hawkish than the Dec meeting and more hawkish than consensus was expecting. 2. Global & Domestic Economy As the reserve currency, the USD’s global usage means it’s usually inversely correlated to the global economy and global trade. The USD usually appreciates when growth & inflation slow (disinflation) and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates (reflation). Thus, current expectations of a cyclical slowdown (and possible stagflation) are good for the Dollar. Incoming data will be watched in relation to the ‘Fed Put’ as there are many similarities between now and 4Q18, where the Fed were also tightening into a slowdown. If growth data slows and the Fed stays hawkish it’s a positive for the USD, once the Fed pivots dovish that’ll be a negative for the USD. 3. CFTC Analysis The USD remains a net-long across major participants, but with price action looking stretched and with peak hawkishness for the Fed arguably close with >6 hikes priced, the risk to reward of chasing USD strength is not very attractive right now. Continued stagflation and geopolitical risks it mean that stretched positioning might not be as important as usual. JP Morgan also shared some stats that suggest the USD has a historical tendency to strengthen in the 6 months going into a first hike but then to weaken during the 6 months directly after a first hike. This is an interesting phenomenon which is worth keeping in mind given the USD’s recent performance.
by thunderpips
1
NZDUSD: 70 Cents A Likely Target For The KIWI After Breakout!Price is at a critical resistance level! The 0.68600 level needs to be cleared for the price to target the next high which happens to be the psychological resistance of 70 Cents. Looking at the main daily chart, the descending channel although violated, has not really been broken. The resistance at 0.68600 is preventing this from being a reality. Once the daily candle closes above this level, we can likely assume that the resistance has been broken and the price is ready to climb further supported by the ascending trendline. An ideal 1:1 risk to reward ratio needs to be balanced for the trade to be executed. With both take profit and stop loss visible on the main chart, the entry point needs to be adjusted ideally to match 1:1 RR. Cheers, I hope you find this insight helpful. Please LIKE & FOLLOW for more regular insights into other major currency pairs.
Long
by FX618Analysis
NZDUSD BEARISH CHANNEL AND PRICE ACTIONKIWI on a Daily chart and Weekly moving sharply downtrend. There is classic bearish formation and still need to retrace. The medium-term momentum is still bearish and the pair is holding under the declining medium-term moving averages, so the mood remains bearish and the resistance at 0.6820 should limit the rise. The pair will then move below 0.6700 and target 0.6510/6470. Prices already broke out of H4 swing low, leaving behind a supply zone for us to work with. Wait for a distribution or confirmation that prices wants to head lower. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Short
by legacyFXofficial
3