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Kiwi

NZDCHF downAs per the last post on NZDJPY - I think the move down on NZDCHF is coming a little sooner. Both suggest a shift in the NZD as the driving factor for the bigger move. looking at the monthly we are closer to the regression top. The weekly is already above Regression. And all major timeframes (Monthly, Weekly & Daily) are Stochastic overbought positions. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Short
by Mayfair_Ventures
NZDJPY Long situation monthly prior to major reversallooking at the monthly structure, we can see a strong A, B, C pattern playing out - moving to the top of the regression. This is supported by the Stochastic being overbought. From a COT perspective, the numbers show a rise in NZD buying throughout Jan for the leveraged funds and the inverse for the asset managers. Shorts have been steady with a sharp rise on the week of the 2nd of Feb. JPY data shows; mainly rising short positions from the start of the year for both asset managers & leveraged funds. Asset managers picked up more JPY longs as of the 9th of Feb and the leveraged funds have been slowly accumulating longs since the middle of Jan. So expectation would be a rise to regression and a drop to create a bigger move down overall. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
NZDUSD Has An Unfinished Five-Wave CycleHello traders! Today we will talk about the Kiwi (NZDUSD), its price action from technical point of view and wave structure from Elliott Wave perspective. We all know the Kiwi is a commodity currency and commodities are positively correlated with stocks, so because of bullish stock and risk-on sentiment, the Kiwi remains under strong and impulsive bullish pressure and it may see more gains as we see an incomplete five-wave bullish cycle. Well, currently seems like NZDUSD is just slowing down in wave 4, so we can easily expect more upside for wave 5 that can push the price even up to 0.74-0.75 area before it forms a potential top. Trade well! If you like what we do, then please like and share the idea. Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
Long
by ew-forecast
3
NZDUSD breaking out of consolidation? Needs confirmation.From neutral to bearish (see previous idea/post link below) especially if we see a daily close as confirmation. Measured target for this move shown in the chart. This is a reversal trade and is a contrarian position against the overall preceding trend. I tend to view these setups as lower probability so I'm managing my risk here as best I can. Let's see what the market gives us. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
Short
by thedailychartist
NZD/USD at 0.77c by the end of 2021?The New Zealand Dollar against the U.S Dollar has been a good barometer for the state of risk-on assets. It currently sits at around 0.7195, with technicals showing a possible strong move in the future. We now see a flat bottom wedge forming, with the wedge's completion seeing the NZD/USD make a violent move to the upside. Historically, the price is in an area prone to intense swings to the upside and the downside if we look left. A move to the upside may finally bring 0.74c on the table, while a break of the flat bottom wedge before completion may see a move back to 0.70c. However, New Zealand's fortunate spot in eradicating the virus may allow tailwinds to support the technical possibilities. Positive inflation numbers decrease the likelihood of further rate cuts In the latter part of January this year, New Zealand's inflation numbers were better than expected at 1.2%, strongly surpassing analysts' forecasts of 0.2%. Jarrod Kerr, Chief Economist at Kiwibank in Auckland, stated that "the medium-term outlook for inflation looks stronger compared to just a few months ago." Like many analysts, Jarrod has reversed his viewpoint for more RBNZ cuts this year. This comes as many New Zealand retail banks such as ANZ and Westpac see that New Zealand's sharp recovery due to successful Coronavirus measures is likely to affect further rate cuts coming down the line. Both banks have retracted their rate cut predictions. Unemployment beats expectations Analysts predicted a rise in employment in the past quarter, with the RBNZ predicting unemployment rising from 5.6% to 5.3%. However, with numbers showing a drop to 4.9%, any optimism in rate cuts has all but vanished. Capital Economics further emphasized their view that interest rates in New Zealand would rise from next year. Both are no doubt positive for the New Zealand economy and its citizens. However, this will turn the New Zealand dollar into a missile. Stephen Toplis, Bank of New Zealand's head of research at Bank of New Zealand, stated that they are "formally building a rate hike in May 2022" and that this may be "pouring fuel on the New Zealand Dollar that is already on fire." Many other senior economists are conveying the same viewpoint, with ASB's senior economist Mike Jones stating saying that the RBNZ's and fiscal stimulus "has done the trick, and no more is required." With a surging house market, lower than expected unemployment, and higher than expected inflation, alongside favorable technical, the New Zealand dollar may be poised for a move upwards.
by BlackBull_Markets