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Kiwi

Kiwi underperforms as investors bet that RBNZ will cut rates oveExpectations at time of writing, drawn from short-term rate futures, imply an 80% chance that the RBNZ cut of a -25 bps on Wednesday, with the rest of the 20% attributed to a hold. Although inflation has subsided, the softening employment situation and weak business confidence suggest that further easing is warranted, a decline in NZD and an improvement in the housing market may allow politicians to stay out this month. We believe that even if RBNZ leaves interest rates unchanged, the continuing uncertainty in the region should keep the bank dovish and the risk for NZD is downside. After that though, the currency’s direction will depend on the signals about future easing. If the RBNZ holds the interest rate, it can catch many people unprepared and this would probably be the most bullish scenario for the NZD pairs. In that case we can see NZD/USD to test 0.6400 resistance. If the interest rate is reduced (as expected), but still the bank refrain from being overly dovish, then it could print a minor rebound. With a dovish cut, we can see a break below $ 0.6320. Purely technically, NZD/USD has been trading in a downward price channel since early November on the four-hour chart. The channel model was formed on November 4. Earlier this morning, the NZD tested the 0.6365 resistance zone formed by the upper trend line of the bearish channel and the 200-day EMA on the four-hour chart, but stepped back. If this resistance area continues to hold, then intraday signals remain in favor of the bears and we can watch the trade continue within the downside channel before the decision tomorrow.
Short
by ForexTrendline
ORBEX: NZDUSD, USDJPY: Traders Taken By Surprise #RBNZ #TrumpIn today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about NZDUSD and USDJPY FX Majors Not only markets expected with 80% chance that RBNZ will cut rates which they never got, but the central bank also said that kiwi is expected to be supported in the medium term by the low exchange and interest rates. USDJPY on the other hand, remained somewhat muted as Trump didn't provide any insights on the trade war situation. Despite the dollar's early gains, yen managed to win back some strength following a report that the US is considering imposing tariffs on EU automakers! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
EURO VS KIWI (EUR/NZD) Mid Term Trade Strategy & PlanRBNZ Expectations Survey , which featured downgraded official cash rate and inflation estimates, the Kiwi gave a fresh bearish trigger in the Asian trading session. Real interest rate cut for the RBNZ decision this week has been boosted by this report, so it wouldn't be shocking if London session traders were to start positioning by today. Earlier on, the pair bounced off the support at their ascending channel and distance, but might still have some bullish momentum higher for another split. Nonetheless, a step past the top of the channel could see a limited upside at the resistance level of 1.7500 The economic schedule shows that the eurozone has ZEW Economic Sentiment figures up for release, and forecast expected good from Germany and the entire region. If it's for real then this cross-currency could fly higher, especially with risk aversion creeping in ahead of Trump’s trade speech. Moving averages reveal that EURNZD is safely in the bullish territory in short terms. Talking about the average volatility over the past 30 days that tells pair moves around 110 pips per day. Dip back to the channel support around 1.73313 could be a good long entry area, with a stop below the weekly S2 of pivot 1.72767 (around the previous low of Nov 4). I have a bullish bias and have a plan to enter (if we get chance) from the bottom of the ascending channel but as we can see there some levels which our arrows in the chart pointing out for potential reversal zone (PRZ) and one can jump in and out of the trade depending on how the market news which are concerned to this two currency releases and how it shifts in sentiment and price action for this cross pair throughout the remaining days of the week. Happy Trading!
Long
by jessi061
Call me crazy, later.... GBP/NZD swing trade to the moon!Based on the weekly double bottom that has been pushing price since around 2016, the market has ultimately predicted the out outcome of Brexit, or any positive or negative news that is to come. If we can stay in tune with the weekly formation, price needs to get up to the next weekly selling zone. FX:GBPNZD side note: I did hedge this position with a sell at the top of the weekly zone on the short term reversal, but I can't not buy on the news sell off into liquidity.
Long
by benson21
NZDUSD bull exhausted? Retracement play? A small swing short idea. It seems like exhausting bulls and retracement/pullback/correction whatever may be a scenario. Overall it may have bounced from a demand level of higher timeframe so this idea may only be focused on playing the retracement of this overall bullish trend. Everything is clear where we exit? If monthly pivot R2 is crossed by price. Where we take profit? Targeting right at 38.20% fibo retracements. Be careful with your position sizing and money management if you intended to take the trade. Just an opinion, not a fact risk on your own and good luck! A happy great new week to all fellow traders!
Short
by jessi061