Kiwi
ORBEX: EURNZD - Will This Correction Increase Long Bets?It looks like the corrective minuette wave ii completed or it's going to complete its bearish course near 1.7156/1.7300. The recent attempt to push prices down brought the pair lower where a subminute ,otive wave can be expected. This would add to validation components that could have minuette iii completed. SHould that effectuates, participants could look at the completion of minute iii, and perhaps minor 3.
As part of the correction, we can also expect a more complex decline. However, so far market structures hint to a simple corrective formation.
The current decline could go down to 1.70 without getting invalidated. This would form a complex flat pattern with the minute ii being shifted.
The short-term opportunity would be invalidated below1.7156 with short-term signs of failure appearing below 1.73 (unless if this turns to the upside any moment)
Can also expect a double bottom at minuette ii
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
EURNZD - Short from a monthly swing perspectiveEURNZD - We are bearish on both currency pairs so this isn't a trade setup we would usually be looking for, however this is setting up nicely for a monthly swing down to the 1.70500 zone which would give us a decent 450 pip trade.
We will slowly build a position on this pair with entries around 1.74600 depending on bearish price action in this zone, and a 60 pip stop loss. First target will be at 120 pips and we will look to add positions down to the 1.70500 region if we get decent entries.
Sell: 1.74600
Stop Loss: 1.75200
First Target: 1.73400
Trade safe!
Cheers, Paul.
NzdUsd - Sell Intraday Rallies!NZD was hit hard after ANZ Activity outlook fell to -1.8 (lowest since 2009) and business confidence fell to -53.5 (lowest point since 2008).
We like selling NZDUSD in the 6270/80 area looking for a break of recent lows, which would open up further downside towards 6200.
Navigating the Market : NZDGD 27/9This pair went through a rare two-day whipsaw-ish price expansion of 90+ pips each day. That is almost twice the 20-day ADR for this pair. Due to this I am anticipating a rather subdued price action today with 35-55 pips range on top of today is Friday and there are no risk events for New Zealand and Singapore.
I do see scalping opportunities (in 15 min or 5 min chart) for a Long trade if there is a stop hunt tapping under the London low and short trade if there is a stop hunt tapping at the NY-only session high. I am not a scalper so don't listen to me. However, I will short this pair if the latter happens. Due to negative swaps, I won't be holding this trade overnight, I'll take what I get and find a solution to continue the trade next week.
KIWI weekly analyzeAs pictured above on weekly chart:
***if considering 12345 as a pattern, see that :
1) point (3) has correct 0.88 of (12) wave.
2) point (4) has correct 0.5 of (23) wave.
so if search in harmonic patterns we found that it can be deep crab so:
the point (5) could be at 1.618 Ext(12) that if draw Ext(34) and App(234) see that they are all convergence to each other
so we have first cluster : 0.6080- 0.6120
***On the other hand if considering XABCD pattern, see that:
1) B point is at 1.618Ext(XA)
2) C point is at 0.5Ret(AB)
so i guess it's Black Swan pattern that:
a) 1.13-2.618 Ext(AB) has been drawn (1st PRZ with brown color)
b) 1.13-2.0 Ext(BC) has been drawn (2nd PRZ with blue color)
***Don't forget to draw support zone!
if draw it, see that Support PRZ (that shown with Red color) absolutely located on 0.786-1.00 App(ABC)
***Finally if zoom out the chart and consider the big wave we have 0.618, 0.707, 0.786 retracement levels.
Clearly , KIWI has 4 cluster that if convergent all,
i think the Reverse PRZ is 0.6000 Range
KIWI or YEN? (Nzdjpy) Trade SetupAs for now such strong bearish sentiment price broken all s1.2.3 weekly of Pvt point in my 2hrs chart and floating below Pvt point of weekly + monthly (blue line respectively) is a total indication of bearish sentiment. When price reaches and holds around 66.702 (may have chances as knowing this strong bearish sentiment market) which was an older strong support zone ( AOI ) then we have either short or long opportunity from that level.
Those who have a bear bias on this pair we have to figure out if coming week RBNZ decides to further ease its monetary policy then Nzdjpy may have chances to break through the Support zone ( AOI ) 66.702 which may bring sell opportunity.
For bull bias on the pair, we should be careful if RBNZ wishes to stay unchanged (which consensus indicates us) and the actual is no future cut as the forecast then bounce from this support zone ( AOI ) 66.702 which may bring buy opportunity.
Thinks to keep in mind:
It's my opinion everything depends on the risk sentiment news releases concerned to yen and kiwi throughout the weekdays. Most of the RBNZ interest rate has already been priced in but we have to stay alert around 24-26 sep so we may see some opportunity around those sensitive periods of time for this pair. Also, be careful we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes of japan on the same day so Kuroda speech may also add up unusual yen momentum and annual inflation (it did matter if) we should figure out if it affects the pair price action or not and protect ourself if any.
NZDJPY will drop untill october.This pair is into a great downtrend, we recently got an almost 2 weeks retracement ended by a high test candle right at the 50EMA level sending the price back in the down direction.
I believe it will continu to drop until the end of the month down to 0,67
Since we are a little bit late to enter on the daily chart i'll search on the intraday charts in the following days to catch the moove and sell this pair.
I'll publish updates here if i take a trade so if you want to follow just like this idea with the thumb or click on "follow this idea".
Here is the weekly chart, a bigger retracement would have been apreciated.
I've published very similar set ups in french on AUDUSD and CADJPY, i give you the links below.
Reading the Right Side of The Chart : Asian Session AUDNZD It's Monday, it's still in Asian Session. Just wait. I am not one to predict/choose a direction out of thin air. Having said that though, I would love it if price close above those delicious liquidity pool haven 1.0700-1.0720. If the price reaches there, I would set my intraday bias into Bearish and will short this pair once a bearish technical signal been triggered.
Please read my post (linked below) about Friday/Monday relationship as a concept to navigate the market more simply and efficiently.