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Kiwidollar

RBNZ implements jumbo cut; Kiwi dollar plummeted Following the Fed's lead, the RBNZ also took a big step. The RBNZ took the jumbo step of cutting its benchmark interest rate by 50bps, bringing it down from 5.25% to 4.75%. RBNZ stated that New Zealand's economy is now in excess capacity, and low import prices fuel deflation. They insisted that the committee unanimously confirmed that domestic economic activity is decelerating, as business investment and consumer spending are weakening, and employment conditions are persistently deteriorating. As hopes for the Fed’s additional rate cut diminish, the US dollar is on the rise, while the Kiwi dollar has dropped briefly to 0.6050, matching its lowest since 18th August. NZDUSD advanced to 0.6095 after breaching the ascending channel’s upper bound. If NZDUSD breaches the resistance at 0.6110, the price could gain upward momentum toward 0.6175. Conversely, if NZDUSD fails to hold above the channel’s upper bound and breaks below the support at 0.6050, the price could fall further to 0.5960.
by inkicho_exness
NZD Sinking as RBNZ Preps 50bps Cut The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to slash the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points this Wednesday, a move that's adding pressure on the New Zealand dollar. A Reuters survey of 28 economists reveals that 60% anticipate the central bank will deliver a half-point cut, while market pricing suggests near-certainty of such a decision. Major banks—ANZ, ASB, BNZ, Kiwibank, and Westpac—are all forecasting a similar outcome. The kiwi has fallen to $0.611, down 3.33% since last Monday, extending its decline into a key technical zone, marked by the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 50% retracement level from the July rally. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East are further driving investors into the safe-haven U.S. dollar.
by BlackBull_Markets
NZD/USD powering higher as business confidence, milk prices surg- NZD/USD hits highs not seen since early January - Latest leg higher fueled by big improvement in New Zealand business confidence - Kiwi likely to outperform as long as traders continue to see a soft US economic landing About the only thing rising as fast as dairy prices is New Zealand business confidence right now, and both are beneficial for NZD/USD which has surged to seven-month highs. Who said Kiwis can’t fly? Kiwi flying on dairy strength, soaring business confidence As covered in a separate note last week, NZD/USD has been a major benefactor of recent US dollar weakness, not only enjoying tailwinds from narrowing interest rate differentials but also soaring dairy prices. You can now add bullish New Zealand business confidence to the growing list of Kiwi tailwinds. The confidence measure in the ANZ Bank New Zealand Business Outlook survey surged to a decade-high in August, surging 23 points to +51. Expectations for own activity also bounced, hitting fresh seven-year highs. The bounce in optimism followed the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) first interest rate cut of the cycle earlier in the month, with the bank signalling a further 100 basis points of easing by the middle of next year. “Things are definitely looking up, albeit from a pretty dark place for many firms,” ANZ’s economics team wrote. “It wasn’t the Reserve Bank’s cut to the Official Cash Rate (OCR) that kicked off the lift – we saw an increase across much of the survey already in July, and the further large jump in August was already evident when the survey first opened at the very beginning of the month. The table below from ANZ details just how impressive the improvement in the surveys internal components was during the month. NZD/USD remains a buy-on-dips play Having chopped back and forth through former resistance at .6218 earlier this week, the data has seen the Kiwi rocket higher in Asian trade on Thursday, hitting levels not seen since early January, breaking through another layer of resistance at .6277 in the process. The question now is whether it can hold there? RSI (14) and MACD continue to provide bullish signals on the daily timeframe, although the former is now bordering on overbought territory. Even so, the inclination remains to buy dips rather than sell rallies in the near-term. With nothing else on the New Zealand calendar this week, the biggest threat to the bullish trend arguably comes from incoming US labour market data which has been highly influential on Fed interest rate pricing over recent months, placing emphasis on initial jobless claims that will be released later in the session. For a cyclical currency like the Kiwi, mild weakness screens as bullish. So too mild strength as both would allow the Fed to begin cutting rates without sparking fears of an impending recession. But if the data were to weaken dramatically, that would be problematic given the Kiwi comes across as a high beta play on the global economy. If the US were to fall into recession, narrowing interest rate differentials would be more than overridden by fears of weaker demand, hammering risker cyclical plays as a consequence. However, such an outcome screens as unlikely on this occasion, potentially opening the door for the Kiwi to keep rising. My preference would be to see how the data prints before entering positions. If the price pushes above .6277, you could buy with a stop below the level for protection. .63695 is one potential target. Alternatively, if it can’t hold .6277, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection targeting a pullback to either .6218 or .6150. -- Written by David Scutt
Long
by WHSelfInvest
NZDUSD: Profit taking into RBNZ decisionNZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6222 – 12 June high – Strong R1 0.6200 – Figure – Medium S1 0.6048 – 2 July low – Medium S2 0.6031 – 15 May low – Strong NZDUSD – fundamental overview There is no change expected from the RBNZ today, though we have seen profit taking into the event risk. We've also seen some Kiwi selling on the New Zealand Treasury's reporting of weaker sales, with consumers experiencing hardship. Absence of first tier data on Wednesday’s calendar will leave the focus on another round of Fed Chair testimony and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Bearish Signals Intensify for NZDUSD Below 0.5800NZDUSD – technical overview Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this prospect. A monthly close below 0.5800 will intensify bearish price action. R2 0.6083 – 10 April high – Strong R1 0.5985 – 29 April high – Medium S1 0.5852 – 19 April 2024 low – Medium S2 0.5800 – Figure – Medium NZDUSD – fundamental overview RBNZ Governor Orr and Deputy Governor Hawkesby spoke earlier in the session before a parliamentary committee as part of their scheduled Financial Stability Report briefing. Hawkesby said that while there had been an increase in the proportion of non-performing loans, this had been "largely as predicted six months ago," and "provisions hadn't risen or weren't projected to rise as far as they had." On the data front, New Zealand building permits were balanced on the whole. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from German and Eurozone manufacturing PMIs, Canada trade, US trade, US initial jobless claims, and US factory orders. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Ladies and Gentlemen, get ready 2 fasten belts 4 take offPrevious forecasts have been achieved, prices have dropped below 0.5859. A price pivot zone near 0.5810, which appeared a year ago, has been reached. We believe it is possible to begin cautious purchases (high risk). Our trading strategy indicates that an upward reversal will occur when levels around 0.5930 are reached on Monday-Tuesday of the upcoming week. Furthermore, we expect continued growth towards the area of 0.6000 and beyond. We expect a potential revisit of last week's lows, but the depth of the breakdown will not be significant.
Long
by ForbesRatingN1
Continuing with the previous forecastThe movement has become more complex, but the overall market picture continues to align with our expectations. After a considerable upward momentum, there was a swift decline. Our trading strategy signals and confirms of the downward impulse completion, suggesting a possible, albeit relatively deep (we do not exclude a rise even up to 0.6000), short-term correction, followed by a new downward impulse with a retest of the October 4th low at 0.58708. The ultimate target is the retest of the September 5th low at 0.5859. Trading recommendations: Open sell positions during the upward correction of the currency pair. The range of 0.5960-0.5985 appears interesting for selling opportunities.
Short
by ForbesRatingN1
The stop-loss hunting will be continueSince the end of August until now, we have seen multiple breakouts of both highs and lows, but the market has yet to establish a clear direction. We believe that there is intentional stop-loss hunting and positioning for a subsequent upward move. The positioning is not yet complete. Therefore, we expect a new downward wave. According to our strategy, the first downward impulse will exceed the range from the September 1st high of 0.6015 to the September 5th low of 0.5859. In other words, the minimum target for the decline will be the level of 0.5891, and the actual target will be slightly below the September 13th low of 0.58799. After that, there will be a rebound limited to about 2%, and then the September 5th low of 0.5859 will be updated. Recommended trade: Selling on a rebound in the upward course. A good range would be between 0.6015 and 0.6020. Place a stop-loss at 0.6050. Target at 0.5861.
Short
by ForbesRatingN1
2
NZDUSD Short Trade Setup A short trade opportunity recently presented itself on the kiwi-dollar trading chart 📉. This is indicated by the bearish engulfing candlestick 🕯️ pattern just on the 0.60210 horizontal resistance level. This indicates a false breakout (fakeout) of the same level, with potential price move in the downward 👇 ⬇️ direction. Sufficient downward momentum should see price dumping towards the 0.59000 psychological level and possibly testing the strength of the 0.58590 horizontal support level. As always, please apply appropriate risk management. Happy trading!
Short
by charles-okoukoni
1
short it : NZDUSD Hello, traders. The support and resistance level of 0.620 may soon be reached by the New Zealand dollar, which is currently going through a correction phase. The trend is downward at the moment. Throughout this trading week and the one after it, we'll keep an eye on NZDUSD in case a selling opportunity appears at the 0.620 zone. We've launched a short position to meet with money and risk management standards, and we'll add more in the zone. Daily chart Weekly Chart
Short
by AliSignals
NZDUSD Update Hello Traders, today i will trade again the FX:NZDUSD for three reasons: -The first reason is that the FOMC will most likely not raise interest rates from September, considering that interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% on the dollar are at 22 year highs and inflation seems to be slowing down (at least in the markets). -The second reason is that with a drop of 133 pips in 2 days, it should be retraced, having left several levels of liquidity as you can see on the chart by Volume Profile. -The third reason is the good volatility of the pair. It is an intraday operation and I will most likely not take anything overnight. Levels to watch: Resistance at 0.6152 - 0.6175 targeting 0.619 or the 0.5 Fibo's Support at 0.6133- 0.611 Stop below 0.611 Point of Control 0.6210
Long
by IllyrianTrader
The game changedThe forex world is shifting, Aussie and Kiwi are coming back, US Dollar still sucks and Canadian Dollar is being dumped like dirty water, good job North America :S. Look at chart, this massive wedge, is very early to tell if is going to break out but I'm taking the shot here. I just opened a moderate position, not too ambitious. I'm going to start building my trade, it could take several weeks or not. If it drops I will open another and so on while is accumulating. Warning this trade requires patience, is risky but the reward is massive.
Long
by ArturoL
NZD/USD to remain bid ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting?There are a growing number of calls for the RBNZ to deliver a hawkish 25bp hike tomorrow, due to the government's 'inflationary' budget delivered last week. This could also potentially result in the RBNZ upgrading their terminal rate in their quarterly forecasts. NZDUSD is consolidating on the 4-hour chart, having found support above the 200-day EMA. RSI (14) is above 50 and confirming the initial stages of this assumed trend, and OBV (on balance volume) has broken to new cycle highs to suggest underlying bullish pressure. We've identified around the monthly R1 pivot ~0.6340 for an initial upside target, and the near-term bias remains bullish above the 200-day EMA.
Long
by CityIndex
NZDUSD H4 | Potential reversal?NZDUSD is nearing a key overlap support. Price could hit our buy entry at 0.61338 and bounce to the up side to hit our take profit at 0.62245 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 0.60933 which is an overlap support. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Double top on the daily completeTrade Idea: Selling NZDUSD Reasoning: Double top confirmed on the Daily. Bearish flag on the 60min. Entry Level: 0.6153 Take Profit Level: 0.6022 Stop Loss: 0.6177 Risk/Reward: 5.56:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
2
Potential bear flag on NZD/USDThe combination of hawkish Fed speak and firmer inflation has seen the US dollar strengthen overnight. But we're interested in shorting the Kiwi dollar against it, given yesterday's lower forecasts for 2 and 3-year inflation forecasts by RBNZ. It should be noted that RBNZ hold their monetary policy meeting on Wednesday February the 22nd, and there has been call for a 50 or 75bp hike. But that doesn't mean it can't dip lower ahead of the meeting, even if they do go for another aggressive hike - especially if Fed members continue to read from the same hawkish script. NZD/USD has spent nearly 7 days within a sideways channel / consolidation, after an aggressive bearish reversal from its YTD high. A double top has formed around 0.6400 to suggest demand resides in the area, so the bias is now for a bear-flag breakout in line with the momentum which took it into consolidation. - Bears can either seek a break of the cycle low, or the channel around 0.6294 to assume bearish continuation. - The lows around 0.6200 make a likely target for bears and risks a corrective bounce - The eventual target projected form the bearish flag is around 0.6120
Short
by CityIndex