KLSE Advance Analysis : Price BottomDisclaimer : Opinions below are based on our own analysis & for educational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities mentioned herein. Viewers/readers should do their own research & studies before investing. Round & Surge or its associates are not responsible for any trading or investment losses incurred.
We often analyse daily charts for stocks in KLSE. This is because the stock prices in the 5 mins chart are not as "beautiful" or well formed as the daily candlestick. But not for us, we find the most important information of the big boys next move are shown in the 5 mins chart & their transaction data.
Although there aren't well-formed candlesticks in the 5 mins chart, analysing the price & volume flow will help us to understand more about the current intention of the big boys, whether there will be a price pause or continuation of price in the short term.
Example in this stock we can see the price down in the daily chart on 21 October 2022, which many retail investors who bought at the higher price for their own reason would have been panicking. They could be Google-ing for the answer of the price fall (Often we don't find any reason for its price action.) and wondering whether the price will fall further?
Traditional way to look for a price bottom is either by the guts feeling of "is too low to go lower" or using the technical support. Finding where the next support & watch whether it will rebound.
To find the bottom of the price, we will need to look into the 5 mins chart to analyse where the major volumes are created within the day.
*kindly open the 5 mins chart of 21 OCT 2022. Not able to post 5 mins chart in idea*
We can see the volumes are mainly created at the day low from the 5 mins chart, which shows multiple high volumes but price is not moving lower. If the selling pressure is high, the price should go down lower instead of staying at the same price. From our point of view, this price & volume action is a sign of a pause in price fall or the price fall is softened.
But this is only a PAUSE, it is not showing signs the price will have a markup or rebound. We will need to wait for the big boys to show us that they have intention to mark the price higher to attract buyers in for profit taking at higher price. The price movement now is just indicating there aren't any buyers in the market for the big boys to sell their shares.
*Note : a pause in price is not a signal of rebound, the price might stay sideways within a price range & continue to fall. For short term traders, always wait for the big boys to show us that they have intention to mark higher. It is always about the best timing, not the best entry price.
When will the price markup? We will have to continue monitoring the price movement after this for price & volume actions that show the big boys are ready to mark higher. How far will they mark the price up will depend on how soon the big boys distribute their remaining shareholding.
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