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XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. We’re going to keep it short for this report as we’re not really changing our plan from the KOG Report and daily analysis which has been shared here over the course of the week. We’ve already hit the higher level where we suggested shorting the market which gave a decent return on yesterday’s move. We are expecting the range to potentially break with hopefully an upside swoop on liquidity before testing the lower levels that are illustrated on the chart. We will be looking for the price to stay below the 1950-60 price point, the price region is 100pips because this is FOMC and being a high-volume event (usually), the market can surpass levels with aggressive spikes. So, we will look at this with two scenarios in mind with the bias being towards the move upwards first! Scenario 1: The price pushes up into that 1945-50 and above that 1955-60 price region, these areas we feel would represent an opportunity to short the market back down into the 1930, 1920 and below that 1903 price points initially. Once the entry is placed and in profit we will take partials along the way and protect the trade. Scenario 2: Price pushes down. In this scenario we will wait for the lower levels of 1885-7 and below that 1860-65 for the price to exhaust and then we feel this price points would represent an opportunity to go long on the market back up towards the 1910 and above that 1920 price points. This could again be an anti-climax like we've seen recently as these rate hikes have been priced in. What the market will be waiting for is the press conference which will be around 19:30 UK time where Powells responses can move the markets. In our opinion the best way to trade this is not to. Stay out until tomorrow, they will move the market to where they want to buy or sell it, that’s what we as traders should do to, wait for them to move the market, let it find its base and then think about taking the trade. Our immediate target level is around 1945 so we’re hoping this target is completed at some point today.
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
1
XAUUSD 15M - Levels - End of week!Quick end of week update from us with what to look for in the remainder of the session. We didn't complete the move down into support however, we've got that resistance level market where the price is holding for now. So we would expect this to range a bit now maybe into market close unless there's a late move to close this above the 1900 level on the weekly chart. For now we're not entering any long trades until next week where we would want to see these lower support regions targeted. We'll be back on Sunday with the KOG report. Wishing all our followers and members a great weekend. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!In last weeks KOG Report we said we would be looking for our higher targets to be achieved at 1795-7, 1804-7 and above that 1814-17. We said we would like to see the market find support at a few levels one of which being the 1750-55 which was the lowest support area. We also suggested that there are a lot of bullish traders in the markets and that we were likely to see more ranging with the move likely to happen just before or during FOMC! You can see what happened so we won’t say anymore! We suggested our members take a majority of their profits on their shorts on Friday and move the stops to entry to protect them. So what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to keep it short this week as we’re nearing the end of the year as well as the festive period so we’re not looking to get into any long term positions on Gold, Silver and Oil. We’ve closed below 1800 on Friday but we’re anticipating another attempt at targeting this level and bulls trying to close next weeks candle above it. We would like to see a completion of this bearish pattern on the daily and the 4H chart. However, we are not ignoring another move to the upside as a sharp swing to again sweep up some liquidity from those trying to hold bearish and positions. We have a higher target of around 1817 which we would like to see complete in the early part of the week which could extend towards the 1830-35 level so we have to keep this in mind. This level we think would represent another opportunity to test the short again towards the lower levels. Note, breaking this level and closing above it will give bulls more confidence to drive this higher towards the 1854-50 level. We will remain bearish with our first lower target being 1735 and if you have been following KOG you’ll know we have targets a lot lower than that. We’re not however going to try and hold positions to target these levels, rather trade this level to level as we've been showing you, adapting to the range and factoring in the swings that come with it. They’re going to make sure they make it as difficult as possible to swing trade this up or down so we suggest you keep your lot sizes reasonable if you are swing trading it. So we will again continue with two scenarios in mind. Scenario 1: We will be looking for the market to find support in the early sessions around the first region of 1785 and below that 1775-70. If these levels hold we think they could represent good opportunities to test the long trades up towards the 1815, 1824 and above that 1830-levels. This is where we want to see rejection and again short back down towards the lower regions and targets. Scenario 2: This would be the ideal scenario for us. We would like to see the market find short term support at the 1790-95 level and then resume the bullish move towards the 1817-20 level and potentially above that the 1830-35 level. This is where we will be waiting again to test the short trades down towards the lower regions and targets. What we want to see is this range broken, until it is and left behind we will continue to see this type of movement that will only allow day traders to trade between the levels rather than holding positions for the swings. Below is the “Trading the range” chart we have been using to illustrate the long/short regions We’ve added the Weekly chart below which shows we’re nearing the end of the triangle We’ve also added the Monthly chart which highlights our longer term view as long as the price stays below that 1830-35 price region. Hope this helps traders and as always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
22
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT! In last weeks KOG Report we suggested we would remain bearish and would like to see a challenge on the 1795-97 price region during the early sessions of the week, and as long as the 1777 level held as support we would taking longs to target that level. We saw the price come down towards the 1772 level which gave a good opportunity to long the market towards the said level. The price stopped just short of the 1795 level hitting 1793 and gave a good opportunity to short the market back down into lower support. Thats the best we got for the week as we faced an tight ranging market which only really gave opportunities to those who were scalping from support and resistance levels. So what can we expect in the week ahead? To start with we still have our higher targets of 1795-7, 1804-7 and above that 1814-17. For this reason we again will be looking for support at the lower regions of 1777-5, 1770-68 and below that 1750-55 (lowest support, be careful if it breaks this level) to hold to test the long trades towards the higher levels. We would expect there to be some more ranging price action as we have the FOMC meeting on Wednesday which is what we feel the market is waiting for. We will remain with our bearish bias on this with our first lower target being the 1735 level which we want to try and get a good entry for. So this is what we would ideally like to happen during the course of this week. The market goes down towards the lower support levels to retrace some of the movement we saw on Friday, once it finds support we would like to go long and target the higher levels where we will be waiting patiently to short the market again towards the lower levels. If however, we see bullish pressure in the early session of the week we will be looking for the higher levels where if we face a good resistance we will take our short positions targeting the lower levels. There are a lot of traders bullish on Gold at the moment so we would expect there to be more ranging with the added spikes up and down to try and catch traders out and then the move to take place just before or during FOMC. For that reason we would suggest trading it smaller than usual and sticking to your risk strategy. Use the support and resistance levels for short term targets, entries and exits. We've added or monthly chart below for you to use as reference, this is our preferred bearish route for the months ahead as long as the price stays below the monthly supply of 1830-35 We've also added the weekly chart we have published in previous KOG Reports to show the the structure and the progress of the moves we are seeing. You can see on this chart there is a possibility for the price to target that 1830-35 level at some point. The support and resistance levels haven’t changed from last week so please use the same ones we published on last weeks KOG Report. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
17
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!In last weeks KOG Report we said we would be expecting more bullish momentum in Gold and would be looking for the price to find support at the lower levels before hitting our Excalibur targets at 1829 and 1841. We hit the targets we mentioned last week but without visiting the support levels below. We also said breaking the 1850-55 level would lead the price to gain even more momentum and touch the higher levels of 1870-85. As you can see we’ve stopped just shy of the 1870 level hitting 1868 and finding resistance. So what can we expect in the week ahead? We’re going to start by saying we’re still bearish on Gold, however, we can see indications and have Excalibur targets above. We’re going to add a chart on our group showing only the Excalibur targets illustrated so you can see what we’re looking at. We would imagine there to be some pullbacks this week with support levels first around the 1845-50 region and below that the 1840-35 price region. These price points would represent good levels to target if you’re shorting the market next week in our view. We have higher price indications of 1874 above that 1881 and above that 1910!! This also coincides with the potential daily trend we’re in which we have highlighted on the chart. These higher price points we feel would represent good targets to aim for if you’re going long in the market. We will be looking for the pullback which we feel is overdue and once price finds support at the levels mentioned we will be looking to go long for the higher Excalibur targets. If however, the price goes up first we will be looking to short the market for you lower levels. Below is the weekly chart we shared a few weeks ago. As you can see on this chart we’ve broken through the key liquidity area which for the short term can now be used a support zone and it looks like that price wants to target the higher liquidity region of around 1900. This again falls in line with the Excalibur target we have around the 1910 price point. At this price point we feel its best to play this market level to level rather than trying to catch the big moves. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
4
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG REPORT – FOMC! This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. Its is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets can be extremely volatile and these events can cause extreme swings in the price. We didn’t expect there to this much of a move Pre-FOMC but we did warn members the US session could move the market. As usual we’re going to look at this with two scenarios in mind: Scenario 1: The price goes up from where we are, we will look for resistance 1 around the 1780-85 region, if we see strong resistance here this could represent an opportunity to short the market back down towards the 1750 region as the first target. Breaking the 1785 level to the upside and we will wait for higher up to short the market again. Scenario 2: The price goes down towards the 1750-45 level and we face strong support here, this could represent an opportunity to long the market back up towards the 1780-85 region as the first target. Breaking the 1750-45 level will push the price to the lower level of 1735-30 where we can look for support again. Levels: Support: 1750-52 1730-35 Resistance: 1780-85 1805-7 1810-16 (Excalibur) We have some targets above so we would expect there to be a bit of a bull rally at some point in the coming sessions. Please remember we also have NFP this week so there is more of this choppy price action and aggressive swings to come! As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
15
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT! (Weekly)Weekly: In last weeks KOG report we suggested we were looking for support below and for the price to target our Excalibur level of 1810. We were looking for higher but we rejected near enough exactly at that level. This week we're going to do something a little different. We're going to do a top down analysis and share it with the community, starting with the weekly chart and ending with the 4H. This will hopefully give traders a clearer insight into what we're looking at and what we're looking for. We’ve zoomed out and looked at the trend, chart patterns and fractals going back to 1971. We can see that its obvious Gold is in an overall uptrend as the long term channel shows. We’ve taken the support and resistance levels from previous highs and lows to give you the weekly levels as well as tried to illustrate the smaller patterns and channels. We have also added the immediate range showing you the levels we are likely to see price testing in the coming weeks. There are some key points and references: If you look back at the 2011 (please zoom out of the chart, we have illustrated the pattern) and look at the triangle created you can see we’re following a similar pattern. Now we’re not saying we’re expecting the price to do the same thing, we’re merely suggesting we could face a similar scenario. We have to trade the chart how we see it and how it presents itself, not how we want to see it and what we want to happen. We’ve taught our students about how to trade triangles and what to look for so this is our first point of focus. We have the immediate range high and low which is 1830 and 1720. Our ideal scenario in this case is a test on that 1830 level one more time where if we face resistance we feel would represent and opportunity to short the market for the lower support region. Now, we’ve looked back over the last 10yrs and the seasonality of Gold on the Monthly and weekly charts. You will see that Nov is either a ranging month or a negative month for Gold. If we look at the chart and the potential triangle we’re in we would expect this to test both the levels mentioned in the range at some point during this month. We’ll add a 4H chart later to show you the range and where we feel are long and short zones. Even after the small sell off on Friday we’ve still closed as a bullish candle. We would expect an attempt on testing the high of the Oct candle which will again lead us towards the 1830-35 region. Nov monthly candle close is really important to determine the next trend in Gold and it leads us towards the end of the triangle so please trade this carefully, the chart is lining up for a breakout on the longer term time frames and its likely when it moves after such accumulation it will be a big move. Key levels: 1829-35 1812-17 (we have an Excalibur target here) 1783-87 1750 1720-25 1682-87 This is a weekly time frame and represents our short to medium term outlook. Please use as reference only. As always, trade safe.
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
8
BTC :- 4HR Higher High - Higher Low FormationBitcoin has taken support at its previous area of demand zone :- 8300. Prices are within a bigger Flag Breakdown Downtrend but have begun forming a Higher High and Possible Higher Low Formation. Target for the Next Leg of up move will be confirmed once we break the higher high and then its a throttle all the way to the Higher High Target of 9985. 9985 coincidentally is not the target for the next leg up but also the line of Daily Resistance. Such matching of targets usually work in tandem.
Long
by Akshath1994