Gold analysis 29/05/2022
As we know, XAU/USD is a very volatile pair and is not always easy to identify its next movement. Currently, it is touching a supply zone after the breakout of a pattern and a double bottom that gave it the push to the baseline. Scenario A is the most probable, but if you know gold...you know that you can't exclude also scenario B.
Knowledge
Babysitting Baby Bitcoin- also known as Ethereum GO LONGMy chart clearly shows not 1, not 2, but 3 inverse head and shoulders on the way up for Ethereum, with a 20+% boost in price, and a step up in the average trading price, similar to Bitcoin , but it took Bitcoin a lot longe rto reach the price Ethereum currently sits at. I have nothing against Bitcoin, but knowing what I know now about each company/coin/blockchain/platform, etc, ETH will pass Bitcoin in the very near future (within 2 - 3 years I predict). Let's hope I am right because that would officially change my life....let me know what you guys think. Should we be looking for another, or does it matter? I think you buy and hold anyway with ETH because no matter what fluctuations happen, because we all know there is always down turns along the way.....She isn't showing signs of relinquishing this bull rally just yet.....
Once again, just a baby at this guys, but I am working my tale off to take all this info in, and get caught up. I want to make my own way doing my own thing, and the fact that everyone around me doesnt think it can be done when I know it can.....is more motivation, so please any pros with advice, I am all-ears, thanks guys!
Trading strategies, Part 1: First stepsWelcome to a series of videos called Trading Strategies. In the next couple of weeks, we'll talk about different strategies one can use to maximize gains: Market psychology, trading tools, trading styles, technical analysis.
Today, the first steps:
1- Defining who you are: Are you an investor or a trader
2- Educating yourself: Knowledge is the best tool someone can have on the market
3- You can't win all the time
4- Don't be greedy
Stay tuned for more content
Morning star candle pattern buyer-seller psychologyMorning star candle pattern buyer-seller psychology:
The sellers are in complete control in the downtrend before the pattern starts,
* The first candle in that pattern sells heavily, and with the Big Red candle the sellers paint a picture of their full control.
• The opening of the 2nd candle has a selling down through a gap down, then the sellers start buying when the price goes down. This leads to a lot of buyer-seller fights and an indication of small body red / green candles.
* The seller loses control of the 3rd candle through the gap up and the buyer takes full control of the green candle. The uptrend begins.
# Conservative traders wait for the 4th candle for confirmation and many enter the 3rd candle gap up
🌐 How not to be stuck in your position?🌐 How not to be stuck in your position?
SIGNAL + TIMING = SUCCESS
You asked me how not to be stuck in one long-term, seemingly losing position and how not to miss opportunities.
You have to consider at least two dimensions of timing: zone and scale.
What is a zone? - The time-zone of my signals is UTC, and so, you have to translate.
What is the scale? - The scale of my signals varies from 1-minute to 3-month, and thus, you have the following kinds of positions.
Top traders have at least three kinds of positions: base, intra-day, and long-term.
What is your base position? - It is the base currency within which you feel most comfortable holding most of your capital, and it is usually USDT or BTC.
What are the guidelines for intra-day and long-term positions?
- Professionals often put up to 5% of their base per intra-day position, and they rarely use more than 25% overall of their base at one moment.
- When you make a profit on an intra-day position, you put a part of it (for example, 50% of the profit) into your long-term trade, and you return the rest to the base.
- This way, you manage your risks, and both your intra-day positions and long-term position will grow.
+1 So, why can't an automated system simply do it for you?
You have got your accounts, your assets, and your responsibility.
Exchanges do not allow a bot to read how much capital you have in total, nor how your investment breaks down to different assets and accounts.
Only you have got this information, and only you hold the right to manage your account.
ETH USDT : ATR and Volatility AnalysisAs you all know as a part of my daily trade series I'm publishing my trade setups and Ideas for each day.
Looking back at the past couple of days it's apparent that there is not a lot of price action or movement in the markets.
When I was trading in April and May, we could capture 150 to 200 points in a single trade. This is because there was a lot of volatility and movement in the market, which is pretty obvious since markets were at ATH in these months.
In the last couple of weeks, the market movement has drastically come down and has been stuck in the 1700 to 2900 zone.
Looking at the ATR it's confirmed that the market on average is moving about 165 - 155 points daily.
I think we can practically capture 1/4 of the ATR in any single trade. Which gives us about 40 points to play with.
Money management suggests, I increase the lot size and captures 40-45 points in the market instead of trading with low quantities trying to capture big market moves.
Just my thoughts on the markets right now. Do let me know your money management and lot sizing strategy in the comments. Would love to learn your point of view.
10 free trading tipsTip 1- Use statistics to avoid bad setups, and enter and exit at high probability areas
Example: Wanting to join an early trend on a pullback? It probably is a bad idea to enter before 50% retrace.
Elliott rules even say wave 2 typically retraces to 78.6%, so it's probably a good idea to wait for a big retrace before going in.
Of course, and this could be another tip of itself, Elliott never made money investing, so it's best to learn from the charts than him.
Tip 2- Use the daily chart, or more precisely the 6 months to 5 years chart
By studying the charts one quickly learns that price evolves on the "daily chart". By this I don't mean the candles absolutely have to be 1 candle = 1 day, as long as depending on several factors 6 months to 5 years of price data are visible. Typically I go for about 2 years, and clicking on "D" is what looks best. Plus humans are on a 24 hour cycle, so daily candles just makes sense. Some people can't stand noise and just look at moving averages.
Tip 3- It is probably a good idea to not try to join very extended trends on a pullback
When an extended trend finally has a pullback, it's often going to be a big one.
We all heard over and over some numbers such as "1.618". If 90% (totally arbitrary number) of EURUSD trends that make it to 2.618 and pullback end up reversing, and only 1% make it really far, you sure you can get a 1 to 100 risk to reward? Some areas might be best to avoid.
In all competitions champions find all the tricks to make it as easy as possible. That's how one becomes the best.
Not by being a complete idiot that goes straight ahead tries to brute force.
"I die, yes, but with honor!". No no, no honor, you die like an idiot the enemy is laughing at you, and your village will get raped and burned to the ground. People love to be hipsters. I prefer to win, to crush the competition.
Tip 4- You already heard this: Cut losses, hold winners, be disciplined
Are bagholders hipsters, or just weak? Clearly all the "diamond hands" are simply weak cowards that piss themselves at the idea of taking a loss.
I do not want to waste too much time on this one, a very easy way to gain a huge advantage over the competition.
Just careful beginners with huge rewards and tiny stops. Greedy stops won't lead to great profits, but to death by a thousand cuts.
Tip 5- Do not daytrade, day trading is stupid
Ah the day gambling hipsters. "I'll be the one in a hundred that makes it". Even roulette and sports betting have better odds.
And the 1 in 100 that make it, assuming it's not just luck, make PEANUTS. They'd earn more flipping burgers.
As I explained, price action is based on the "daily" chart. Trends last months, they can be divided in smaller moves that last days to weeks.
And the price, as I also explained, reacts around these daily chart swings, and daily chart extensions. Another reason why daygambling is so troll.
And since day gamblers "close at the end of the day" (vomit) you could be right and lose money! You could be wrong and lose money!
So even if they have some edge, they add enormous randomness (and ruin an edge) because there is a time factor we have no control on, they'll close before bed at a completely random price, just because "the day is over". Same concept as the binary option scam that got banned. That's literally gambling!
Oh and when they "close at the end of the day" 🤢 they will be making even less than 15 pips, with spreads still the same size.
Tip 6- For the noobs: Start with something simple that works and conditions will be added over years
I think the best course of action would be to go for the basics, something that is expected to work, going with the trend, not focussing too much on the entry, having a reward better than the risk but not too tight (greedy). And with time improve it.
It's like making muscle. If you stop trying to be a hipster and just do what you are been told (don't daytrade, don't hold losers, don't go against the trend), after the initial learning curve (1-5 years, sorry for the dreamers/gamblers) on year 1 you gain 7.5 kg muscle (7.5% returns), year 2 5 kg muscle, year 3-5 5 kg muscle, year 6-20 maintain, maybe small additional gains. Guys like Bill Hwang have shown someone could be a self-made billionaire making 60% a year, so these numbers are just illustrative. The idea is traders develop over time. All the famous ones really got good after several years, and peaked decades after they started. There are no steroids in trading. Ok I guess there are, those would be insider trading, but this isn't easy to access, and a crime.
Tip 7- Noobs again: use indicators if you want too, but don't waste time trying to look for indicator edges
If you think indicators look good then use them, but don't waste too much time looking for an edge. We'd know if there was one.
Don't be lazy, when starting one probably should spend a little bit of time backtesting indicators, and quickly will find out there is nothing of value, no edge based on the indicator itself. And then they can look for something else with a clear head, without wondering "did I miss something".
Tip 8- Beginners or intermediate traders that are not yet profitable: Don't aim for huge asymmetric risk to reward
You look at charts, there is volatility, in the real or original sense of the word. Trends have plenty of pullbacks, 23.6%, 38.6%, 50%.
You might have noticed those were quite significant pullbacks. Not tiny 5-10% pullbacks. So how does a risk to reward of 1 to 20 or 1 to 10 make sense?
And how is someone not yet experienced, not even profitable, going to pinpoint exact high and top? I know NO ONE that can be that precise.
When George Soros broke the bank of England, he sold at the upper end, and had a large risk to reward. Correct me if I am wrong but he sold for 10 billion, made 1 billion, and said his risk was below 2% (200 million). That was the trade of a lifetime and his reward was 5 times his risk "only".
I think he said his hit rate was below 30%. I doubt he typically takes trades with a risk to reward of 20. Or ever.
Maybe there is an edge out there, with 100 RR, who knows? But I think it is more reasonable to start with something between 1.5 and 3.
Tip 9- Strong trends are the best, pretty obvious but people seem to avoid these
On strong trends retail positions are massively on the wrong side, some sources show the percentage of positions and some show more.
The very few traders that are in the correct side have tiny gains, out of hundreds of thousands of accounts the people going in the correct direction and holding can be counted with 1 hand. Makes me feel very special. 1 in a thousand. Even 1 in 10,000.
It's really simple too.
I was tired of try harding 2 years ago, and I just yolo'd in trends, and it worked out. And last year I repeated it, and it worked again! So I focussed on that, and added a strategy to my arsenal. I call it "breakout" but there's really 2 strategies and one of them is not a breakout at all. I wish I started with this, because it is a real goldmine. Not just the easiest, but most productive too. And I'd build the other strats later. When I started I quickly noticed big patterns that flashed in my eyes, once you see them you cannot unsee them, so I went in that direction, obviously.
If you're onto something do not spit in the soup! But if you have a choice, let's call it that, I encourage everyone to aim in the direction of trend following! It's well worth it. If you want to make money. For those that would rather be hipsters, well, have fun.
Tip 10- Breakouts! Strong trend breakouts! Be patient
And final tip, with breakouts in strong trend, they very very often don't go anywhere. Best way to lose money is to fomo.
I'd rather miss out.
So the trick is to have a condition like this: "It has to go far enough."
Or it can go like this: "I want the price to remain above the previous high", that's not realistic, so it could be "I want 2/3 of the price to be above the previous high, and then to double bottom with the high of the bounce above the previous high", which is more reasonable.
This is all just my personal opinion, I do not offer refunds. And it is all specific to Forex.
Do you own research. With the charts. All praise the charts. Glory to the charts.
WAKE UP BITCOIN! (Picture and Story)Last Night at 01 .00 a.m. at Thailand
I said to bro
BTC STUCKING IN DOWN
You can see Blue Big Line that I wrote.
So What do you think about?
...
I dont know how long this down trend
dont suggest buy/sell point
BUT I KNOW
"They're Going To Continue Down"
Give me a Comment if you want
My Name is Duang from Thailand
P.S. Sorry for my bad english skill ^^ and I spoke Thai.
WAKE UP BITCOIN!Last Night at 01.00 a.m. at Thailand
I said to bro
BTC STUCKING IN DOWN
You can see Blue Big Line that I wrote.
So What do you think about?
...
I dont know how long this down trend
dont suggest buy/sell point
BUT I KNOW
"They're Going To Continue Down"
Give me a Comment if you want
My Name is Duang from Thailand
P.S. Sorry for my bad english skill ^^ and I spoke Thai.
Best Books on Stock Market & Finance📚 Books are always the best way to acquire knowledge even in the presence of latest technologies/e-books/videos.
There are 1000s of books in the market. So I have picked the best ones according to me!
📚 I have sub divided the books to acquire knowledge in any specific field
💲 Finance and Motivation - For knowing more about money and it's fundamentals.
Suitable for - Anyone with the interest to know about money
💲 Technical Analysis - Knowledge about candle sticks and other trading patterns
Suitable for - Anyone with the interest to know the technical analysis done by traders
💲 Fundamental Analysis - Knowledge about the base of a company with it's fundamentals/results
Suitable for - Anyone with the interest to know and analyze fundamentals of companies for investments.
🤔 Pre-requisites - None of the above book require any prior knowledge.
Thank you for viewing book recommendations.
Let me know through the comment section if you have any doubts or feedbacks.
All the best! Happy trading/investing :) 😄
9 SYNOPSIS FOR NZDUSD BULLISH INCITATIONTHE MARKET PROVIDE 9 REASON TO TAKE A LONG OPPORTUNITY...
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS...
1.Price nearly 0.72 psychology level...
2.dynamic support EMA 50...
3.trend line support an upward move..
4.Wave 5 complete now we having intermediate wave c to complete ABC pattern...
5.Retest the neckline formation of m or w inducement and its retrace...
6.break out structure confirmation of bullish momentum....
7.rally base rally inside imbalance move of bulls SHOW IN 1H..
8.declaration of a volume which is inverse to a candle which is formed as a panic candle without fundamental acquire
9.APPROVAL RISK TO REWARD ...
COMMITMENT OF TRADERS..
USD is getting weak due to having -2.5k shorts n long of unloaded shares both non commercials and commercials ...
NZD is getting strong due to having 1.2k additional long in non commercials ..
my analysis base in PUREPRICE ACTION,,WAVE,,LAWS OF WYKCOFF AND COT UPDATE,,,,
CAUTION,,,,determine your risk to reward
USDCAD IS IN AFFORDABLE TO BUY NOW....TECHNCICAL ANALYSIS FIRST;
now we wait for A>B>C PATTERN to complete
wave 4 n 5 are need another clues to show future price move we might have.
PSYCHOLOGY LEVELS N DEMAND AND SUPPLY TO CHECK:
Price from 1.25 having upward push due to our last demand APPROVED by BULLISH PIN BAR in last zone of 1.25...
HUGE momentum shown by 4h candle releif as to buy the price... HENCE ITS CORRESPONDING WITH HUGE VOLUME..
take your fibo to master correction of a move.
TRUST ME BE AWARE WITH 1.25KEYLEVEL MAY PROVIDE A NICE OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET
IN COMMITMENT OF TRADERS;
13/04/2021 COT REPORT explain +1,693 long orders were being opened bypassed CAD currency exchange..Even its got a slight unloaded shares of commercials but still suitable for both currencies USD & CAD to push up the market price..HENCE huge existence of loaded shares is shown by both big hedges funds..(commercials and non commercials institute)...
......TO LONG OR BUY USDCAD SHOULD BE YOUR FIRST DESIRE..
Thank you don,t forget to leave comment for more ideas and knwoledge in a trading market...
Make sure to focus on improving in every aspectNote I am using GBPJPY, a favorite of high leverage day gamblers as it has the biggest range of the 30 leverage pairs.
I am not "spreading FUD", if day gamblers want to lose their money I do not care. Actually I like it.
Finding success is satisfying but additionally watching others fail has an added sweetness that is irresistible.
This is simply a reminder to be logical, and since we try to always better ourselves we have to make sure to better ourselves on all aspects.
It sounds simple like this but I assure you it is simple when you are told it, like hindsight.
People think they are supermen that think of everything, never miss anything, and are going to buy at bottoms and sell at tops.
Well to people that think that: good for you. I am no superman. And believe me I'm not being humble I hold myself to high standards and have a big pride.
Warren Buffett is no superman either. Neither is George Soros. Nor Jim Simons, he made real money decades after buying his first future contract and needed to hire someone to help him out with stocks which he did not know that well.
You may ask "But MrRenev how do I improve on myself and my trading? I do not even know where to start, I do not even know what to improve in".
Well you force yourself to have a rational organised mind, write it down; and you take your chart screen, sit in front of it, and stay there for the next 50 years.
==> Read, read, read. Watch videos, read articles like this one or (I'm not sure if I can mention potential competitors), go on forums, read books if you want.
I would call this part the "fun" part, or the leisure part. Watch videos you find interesting, even read memeposts on the internet, as long as you can tell what is bs what is not, even absolute trash will teach you how others think or will make you think or will show you others mistakes.
==> The second part, the laborious one (it's okay when you get into it you won't see the hours). You open excel, you open tradingview, you get a tool to save screenshots automatically, you open the calculator, you open a CME window, you open notepad/sublimetext. And you grind. You take in vast amounts of data, process it, look at the stats, and you learn. You ask questions such as "what are other participants doing? What are their holding periods" and so on.
So here is the secret holy grail:
R.D. Wyckoff started as a stock runner for a New York brokerage at 15 years old. He started speculating at least 10 years later, after having learned much from the charts and his clients mistakes.
W.D. Gann is the son of a cotton farmer and started hearing and learning about markets at a young age. He then went to a business school (useless) and worked for a broker, like Wyckoff he learned from his clients mistakes and then started proprietary trading.
George Soros started in 1954 as a clerk, then arbitrage trader, in 1959 he was an analyst for euro stocks, until 1963 when he became a VP.
He started a fund in 1966 with his employer money (correct me if I am wrong) to try out his trading strategies - developed during his 12 years in the business.
Don't just "try to make money", improve on everything and it will come with time. Remember, the most toxic tryhards are the best players in sports and video games. Same thing here.
If your goal is not to be "the best I can" and just "make money", McDonald's has job offers available, good luck as a burger flipper, and I'm not sure I'd want to eat those.
LET'S LEARN TOGETHERTradingview is all about sharing your ideas and knowledge with like-minded people. Sometimes we all get caught up with the trading part and forget that it's a learning journey no matter what your experience level on the market is.
As a way for everybody to take a step back and look around, we decided to create this thread where each of you can share your trading routine and any tips. Something you might think is insignificant might change somebody's trading journey for good!
A lot of you have been supporting us with coins! We make enough through trading, thus, we'll try to give back to people with the most helpful tips through the coins we have.
For instance, here are some tips Investroy analysts use on a daily basis:
1) Before making an entry on a larger time frame, we always check M15 or lower to make sure we don't have any micro-reversal patterns being created
2) We don't enter trades on Fridays
3) NOT RISKING MORE THAN 1% ON A SINGLE TRADE (NO MATTER HOW JUICY THE OPPORTUNITY IS)
4) Always waiting for confirmations (specific candle to close) before executing a reversal trade on major support or resistance
TradingView has a lot really experienced and intelligent traders, we're hoping they also join this post to share their wisdom with the people who are just starting their long (hopefully profitable) journey. All the best, my friends! Let's make the most out of our great platform!