XAUUSD - KOG REPORT! (Weekly)Weekly:
In last weeks KOG report we suggested we were looking for support below and for the price to target our Excalibur level of 1810. We were looking for higher but we rejected near enough exactly at that level. This week we're going to do something a little different. We're going to do a top down analysis and share it with the community, starting with the weekly chart and ending with the 4H. This will hopefully give traders a clearer insight into what we're looking at and what we're looking for.
We’ve zoomed out and looked at the trend, chart patterns and fractals going back to 1971. We can see that its obvious Gold is in an overall uptrend as the long term channel shows. We’ve taken the support and resistance levels from previous highs and lows to give you the weekly levels as well as tried to illustrate the smaller patterns and channels. We have also added the immediate range showing you the levels we are likely to see price testing in the coming weeks.
There are some key points and references:
If you look back at the 2011 (please zoom out of the chart, we have illustrated the pattern) and look at the triangle created you can see we’re following a similar pattern. Now we’re not saying we’re expecting the price to do the same thing, we’re merely suggesting we could face a similar scenario. We have to trade the chart how we see it and how it presents itself, not how we want to see it and what we want to happen. We’ve taught our students about how to trade triangles and what to look for so this is our first point of focus. We have the immediate range high and low which is 1830 and 1720. Our ideal scenario in this case is a test on that 1830 level one more time where if we face resistance we feel would represent and opportunity to short the market for the lower support region.
Now, we’ve looked back over the last 10yrs and the seasonality of Gold on the Monthly and weekly charts. You will see that Nov is either a ranging month or a negative month for Gold. If we look at the chart and the potential triangle we’re in we would expect this to test both the levels mentioned in the range at some point during this month. We’ll add a 4H chart later to show you the range and where we feel are long and short zones.
Even after the small sell off on Friday we’ve still closed as a bullish candle. We would expect an attempt on testing the high of the Oct candle which will again lead us towards the 1830-35 region.
Nov monthly candle close is really important to determine the next trend in Gold and it leads us towards the end of the triangle so please trade this carefully, the chart is lining up for a breakout on the longer term time frames and its likely when it moves after such accumulation it will be a big move.
Key levels:
1829-35
1812-17 (we have an Excalibur target here)
1783-87
1750
1720-25
1682-87
This is a weekly time frame and represents our short to medium term outlook. Please use as reference only.
As always, trade safe.
