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[Viking Pattern] Whales' Favorite Trap#Viking #Whipsaw #bulltrap #beartrap Recent financial market seems to be distinctively perplexing and bizarre, often leaving us traders in a state of confusion. Ultimately, our job as traders is to structure market fluctuations, which occur with certain probabilities, into trends and Price Actions based on time and price. The so-called scam moves and abnormal trends that have been frequently observed recently also tend to have patterns and can be somewhat formalized. Today, I would like to introduce a pattern that I have deducted and modeled based on insights of recent data. Those of you who have been trading a lot recently will probably be quite familiar. Interpreted from the perspective of Wyckoff Theory and the Master Pattern, this model ultimately intends to derive Price Action by distinguishing Accumulation and Distribution Phases in terms of horizontal Volume Profile. To systematize this pattern, various technical elements such as LVP (Low Volume Peak), HVP (High Volume Peak), Fibonacci Extension & Projection, Time Fibonacci Extension, trend lines, and parallel channels were utilized. Let me briefly explain features of the periodic phases that compose this model. 1. First and foremost, a significant volume structure forms in the horizontal level as various patterns including triangles (Ascending, Descending, Symmetric triangles, and Wedge, etc.), parallel channels, and diamonds, etc. It would consist of upper and lower bounds derived as either horizontal line (LVP) or sloped line (Trend line). Make sure to clearly mark these lines to later spot the meaningful breakout. 2. A strong breakout through upper or lower LVP (horizontal line) will take place, leaving the volume structure as consolidation zone or sideway channel above or below. Now the market has entered a distribution phase where the direction of a market trend clearly shows. We can target this level with Fibonacci Projection and Extension tools, but I find it quite risky entering against the trend, which would be a counter-trend strategy. In this study, the extension and projection levels utilized are 1, 1.13, 1.272, 1.414, and 1.618. 3. The impulsive momentum, whether bullish or bearish, eventually loses strength at some point forming a significant high or low. After, a new volume structure is generated again at a different level above or below the first structure. If this new structure shapes as relatively rounded or forms potential trend-reversal pattern, such as Cup with Handle, Adam and Eve, or Head and Shoulders, the probability of Viking pattern increases. Typically, the range of the second volume structure tends to be shorter than the first structure both vertically(pricewise) and horizontally(timewise). 4. Another breakout of the second consolidation, with the direction towards the first volume structure appears. According to the textbook, the confluence area where the LVP (which has been SR Flipped) and the trendline of the first volume structure overlap, is most likely to show retest support or rejection. However, if the price breaks through this very spot, which is defined as a POR (Point of Recognition) in this theory, a further impulsive trend is highly likely to follow. The essential part of this model is to spot potential PORs and apply trading setups using this very price momentum. 5. Fibonacci time zone extension tool were applied based on the periodic range of the first volume structure. Most of the time, the horizontal range of the first structure is longer than the length starting from the first breakout to the POR (Second breakout). In other words, if the second volume structure extends the previous one, the probability of occurrence decreases. The periodic extension levels used for targeting POR in this model are 1.13, 1.272, 1.414, 1.618, and 1.818. Here are some examples from various commodities and timeframes. - Bitcoin - Tesla - Microsoft - DXY (US Dollar Index) - ECOPRO 4hr Further studies and reviews of this model are to be updated later. Your subscription, comments and likes are huge motivation for me. Thank you.
Education
by Tommy_Trader
1
[EW] All of the possible Scenarios for Bitcoin!#BTCUSDT #Daily #ElliottWave #Tommy - Hello dear traders from all over the world! It’s Tommy. It’s been quite a while since I uploaded any contents on EN server. Due to countless issues in Crypto industry as well as the macroeconomic status concerning us about inflation and recession at the same time, BTC recently broke previous low around 17k making a new significant low around 15.4k. Now is the time for us to update our TA perspectives on BTC by deriving new supports, resistances, top, bottom and target prices. Let us look at some possible future scenarios in terms of Elliott Wave Theory. - My first scenario indicates that the high(65k) born on April 2021 is the end of an impulsive cycle, corrective waves right after being the expanded flat. This then implies that the historical high at 69k is the end of flat wave B which exceeds previous wave 5 within an impulsive wave. We know that the flat corrective structure follows 3-3-5 zigzag rather than 5-3-5. Accordingly, the whole bearish wave structure was to be considered as red wave C composed of 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. - Scenario A1 says that the downward impulsive green wave 5 within red wave C is ongoing right now. In this case, the current structure is most likely the downward impulsive black wave 3 or upward corrective black wave 4. Ending diagonal green wave 5 is also to be on the list, especially if either the black upward wave 4 retraces wave 3 deeper than expected or black downward wave 3 has already ended around 15k. Some of the considerable supports and resistances in this scenario are 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k, and 17.7k~18.5k. This scenario becomes invalid if BTC breaks above 21.5k. - Black wave B or C of upward corrective green wave 4 of red wave C is where we are right now according to scenario A2. This case expects BTC to break the downward channel above followed by decent bullish trend and then another strong rejection making a notable swing low after. Black wave 2 has also been regarded as some kind of flat structure. This very wave counting is off the list if BTC breaks above 33k, the end of green wave 1 after escaping the black parallel channel. If I were to be a bit more bullish, I can target the end of green wave 4 at 22.9k~23.7k and 27.4k~28.2k based on some technical components such as widening pattern(disjoint channel), 0.382 retracement level of downward cycle, and the horizontal volume profile, etc. - Rather than expanded flat described as above, regular correction with 5-3-5 zigzag was chosen on scenario B. I believe this very wave counting is so far the most popular one among the Elliott Wave traders globally. This case refers that the end of impulsive cycle has been completed at the historical high at 69k which then would be the end of impulsive red wave 5. Therefore 5-3-5 zigzag was implied on this whole falling wave structure starting from 69k. Well, then we are currently on green wave 4 or 5 within red wave C. - Similar to A1, B1 also regarded 25k high formed on August 2022 as the end of upward correction considering the falling wave structure right after as impulsive green wave 5. The chart below described the latest bearish waves as the black wave 3 within green wave 5 whether the 18k low is end of black wave 1 or running flat black wave B. The possibility of ending diagonal green wave 5 as well as the target prices (supports and resistances) are pretty much the same as A1’s. Retracing more than 21.5k that are thought to be the beginning of black wave 3, contradicts this scenario’s reliability. - B2 is also quite the same as A2 but the degrees of waves are different. This scenario implies flat correction as well and black wave C can be targeted at 22.9k~23.7k (Running flat) and 27.4k~28.2k (Expanded flat). Frankly, considering the proportion, this counting might be a little off the track when second target is reached. - From here, double three XWY corrective structure has been adapted on the falling wave that starts at the historical high. The dead cat bounce looking alike wave from 33k to 48k is then regarded as a wave failure, X. After the red wave X, the whole parts of the falling wave then fit into ABC 5-3-5, not the 12345 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. I could say this scenario is far most the bullish comparing to A and B. - Starting from C1, this case considers the horizontal volumes formed around 30k as green wave B dividing this very wave into ABC 5-3-5 zigzag. Weighting more on the flow that downward green wave C is starting from 25k high and splitting inner wave as 5-3-5-3-5, this scenario expects that the bears are almost finished and even though BTC shows another swing low in the future, it’s not going to be that bad. The worst specific case within this scenario would be making a final bottom at 13.4k~14.1k before bullish phase takes in place. - C2 is just a tiny bit less bullish than C1, where downward ending diagonal green wave C with a huge black wave 1 is considered. It surely is too early to expect ending diagonal green wave 5 currently, but monitoring major highs and lows to keep track on the new significant trendlines that are to be appeared seems integral. The worst possible case would be BTC reaching the 1:1 projection level of green wave A and B, which is around 10.8k~11.8k. - Last but not least, triple double three WXYXZ correction counting has been conducted in this scenario since those of some impatient traders are starting to address another wave failure X. This wave counting describes another wave X after WXY thus regarding another ABC 5-3-5 zigzag starting from 25k high. - According to D1, 22.8k high is a starting point of a downward impulsive green wave C interpreted as 5-3-5-3-5. Honestly, assuming the downward black impulsive wave cycle started much later is not my number one scenario. Anyhow, the target price ranges of red wave Z are around 13.4k~14.1k and 10.8k~11.8k. - Also considering WYXYZ correction, D2 implies that the green wave b within red wave C is taking place right now. Similarly, green wave B then can be regarded as either expanded or running flat which then can target 17.7k~18.5k and 22.9k~23.7k. Just like A2 and B2, this scenario also expects bulls to come in shorter term before another huge drop in longer term. (Summary) Supports: 13.4k~14.1k, 10.8k~11.8k. 7.4k~8.4k Resistances: 17.7k~18.5k, 22.9k~23.7k, 27.4k~28.2k Tops(Prices that bulls should break above): 22.8k, 25k , 29k
by Tommy_Trader
2
[EURGBP] Mid-term trading strategies#Forex #EURGBP #Daily #Midterm - Here’s EURGBP 1D chart. A lot of FX pairs have shown some high difficulty with frequent moves that are quite unpredictable. - As can be observed from the chart, there are a lot of noises, stop huntings, bull/bear traps, whipsaws, and long candle tails. - Consequently, such strategies with wider risk/reward ranges on higher timeframes are necessary in this type of market. - EURGBP showed a bear trap after breaking bottom of the green channel, re-entering into the channel again. - At the same time, it broke the black channel above and is currently testing resistance of the blue trendline and thus I will be bullish for a while right after it successfully breaks the blue trendline. - The resistances I am considering are 0.885~0.888 and 0.900~0.903 and trading setups can be designed as shown in the chart. - In shorter term, I am considering 0.848~0.851 significantly as a short-term bottom which is bottom of the green channel. If this area fails supporting, I would be bearish for a while. - A decent area to enter long is around the retest area of the black channel currently located at 0.836~0.839 and such trading setups can be implemented.
by Tommy_Trader
What makes trading different from gambling? [No Trading Zone]#Notradingzone #Tocademy #PrincipleTrading #Confluence Hello traders from all over the world. Observing thousands of retail traders during my lessons, lectures, and consulting, I realized that a lot of novice traders in contemporary market have some bad trading habits. Especially if you are a daily trader or scalper who usually take small and many short-term trades, please pay attention! Someday in the future, hopefully, you will eventually realize that the best and most ideal position in the world is to take neutral position. What I mean here doesn't imply that you should not trade at all and rest the whole time. After entering this world of trading, within the process of becoming a mature trader there is a time when you realize the power of the TA(Technical Analysis). Once you start to practically utilize what you have studied and even see how the numbers on your account grow, you literally become mesmerized. This magical thing called ‘Trading’ would feel like the ONE you have been searching for the whole life. I know, calm down! It feels great when the price reacts to the lines and indicators you have drawn and put on the chart by yourself. In this particular stage, I see many traders sit in front of the monitors or watch their smartphones all day long, being addicted to trading. Well, here’s a truth that I deducted through years of my trading career and the data that I have researched; addictive traders hardly become successfully. Always remember that our ultimate purpose of trading is to solely make money, not just for fun. Of course, making money would be fun but for some of you, the priorities of these two are switched. Before you even notice, you might find yourself gambling rather than trading. Now put your hands down, close your eyes, and think for a minute. Are you anxious when you are not in a position? Do you frequently regret that you closed your position too early? Do you become angry when you miss big long or short? Are you so urgent to recover your loss as soon as possible? Does trading disturb your primary work? (Hard to focus both, isn’t it?) Does trading masses up your lifestyle and relationship with people? If you replied ‘Yes’ to majority of the questions, please cancel all of the pending orders right now, turn off the chart, get some rest, and forget about trading just for a while. I understand more than anyone that you are full of desire to chase all these micro trends or minor waves in 1 minute chart. Especially those who are trying to recover all the losses you made this week ASAP, before you encounter a bigger loss, trust me, take some time, and cool your head. I am sorry to say but you might be more of a gambler than a trader right now. Sure, there would be few that still do fine with all those conditions but if you eventually keep ending up bad due to excessive entries or lose entire seed at one cue after series of consecutive wins, your addiction might be interfering your judgment. Irrational trading decisions are the biggest risk that human traders have to face and restraining our emotions during trading is integral. (Please click the image/link below for details) As the image below indicates, since we humans cannot perfectly control our emotions every single day, the total number of trades and the net performance are not always proportional in a short-term period. In other words, spotting thousands of entries in a single day does not always lead to daily accumulative profit. Not only you pay high transaction fees, but your physical and mental exhaustion can lower your concentration seducing your irrationalized perceptions to break your trading principles. Accordingly, the more excessive amount of time spent looking into the chart, the more likely our logical sense becomes numb and vague which can easily cause FUD and FOMO. Researches have shown that the relationship between the entry rates and the performance (per certain period of time) of retail traders is averaged out as a curved shape with a local maximum coordinate. This peak point implies the ideal amount of profit and entries of a trader. It would be different for each trader depending on their preferences, capabilities, and other circumstances. For instance, 3~4 entries and $10,000 profit per day might be ideal set or oriented goals for some traders, while 10~15 entries and $100 profit per day might be those for other traders. Hence it is important for us to figure out each of our own boundary and refer to it when designing strategies and PnL first of all. Therefore, a well systematically designed strategy that can effectively weigh and quantify technical signals based on the scientific and reliable evidences must be adapted. Once validities of each are scaled, we would be able to comprehend which signals are relatively more reliable than others. Shown on the main image above, even though entering a 80% credibility zone will provide low entry rate, higher RR ratio and win-rate can be achieved. We need to train ourselves to be able to call “No Trading Zone” when the identified trends and derived price action zones do not meet the minimum standards of our own. Some of the talented and successful daily traders I’ve met are not very much different from most of us here. They analyze the market and design trading setups just like we do. If anything, that made them superior, they have a proficient sense for spotting the “No Trading Zone”. They are amazingly good at consistently stepping aside if the signals are not reliable enough or do not meet their standards. They know time is on their side and they wait in patient. It's just simply deciding whether to take certain trades or not, filtering out some of less potential entries and maintaining no position when they are less convinced about the signals, but these tiny differences ultimately result in a huge difference in performances. Investors who trade with technical charts like us can measure the credibility of signals based on the confluency of technical signs and indicators. Here are two traders: trader A and B. Trader A considers eight signals (techniques, indicators, and theories). For example, trader A observes volumes, trendline, Fibonacci levels, moving averages, Bollinger band, Ichimoku cloud, RSI, Stochastic, and Elliott wave theory. Trader A won’t enter position unless majority of those signals are giving signs simultaneously relatively at the same price and time. On the other hand, trader B only considers trendline and moving averages. If only one of the two gives a signal, trader B enters immediately. Which trader would be more successful? Even though entry rate is low, trader A would be able to secure higher RR ratio and win-rates because the trends and price action zones that trader A has deducted through TA are more reliable than those deducted by trader B. As mentioned, Confluence Zone is an area where multiple technical evidences overlap at the same price or time period. In TA world which is 2-dimensional, a price action zone would be expressed with a dot, a line or a box. When multiple indicators signal certain trends and PRZs both in price and time wise, we need to keep our eyes on those coordinates. We as a trader, need to utilize these confluence zones which indicate major price range within certain time period, to design trading setups. The more overlapping elements there are, the higher RR ratio and win-rate we can secure. And this is what makes gambling different from trading. Both of us fight with numbers, but we can control that numbers while gambler cannot manipulate the RR ratios and the win-rates they are given. Thanks for reading my post. I will see you guys next time! Your subscriptions, likes, and comments are the greatest motivations for me to write more posts!
Education
by Tommy_Trader
4
[Netflix] When will the crash end?#Netflix #NFLX #NASDAQ #Daily - Here’s NFLX Daily chart. It recently has shown a huge drop about 73% from the historical high at $700. - During the fall, it made a consolidation zone (HVP: High Volume Peak) around $330~$400 surrounded by big gaps. - Currently NFLX reached 0.705 retracement level of the impulsive wave which also happens to be the bottom of the blue falling channel. - Also, there are some of major HVPs that were formed at 2017 at current price level and thus I believe this area is a PRZ(Potential Reversal Zone), expecting some technical price actions. - If it falls a bit more, some attractive buy zones are $153~$168 and $82~$97 which are confluent zones of trendlines, Fibonacci retracement levels, stop hunting level of an impulsive wave, and POC (Point of Control) levels of major contractions. - Some resistances that I am considering are $288~$303, $373~$388, and $443~$458. If you are looking for more conservative spot, I would recommend you to wait until it breaks the blue falling channel above and until then, I would maintain my bearish perspective.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by Tommy_Trader
1
[Twitter] Will the blue bird fly high?#Twitter #Stocks #NYSE #Daily - Twitter, known to be world’s biggest social network platform recently had a good issue that Elon Musk has acquired about 9.2% stake. - If you look at the chart, about 70% bullish rally has appeared with a huge gap. - The black long-term upward parallel channel has been re-entered from the bottom and thus this bottom will be potential support for a while. - In Elliott Wave perspective, I think this impulsive bullish wave is B. If Twitter successfully break the blue falling channel and the orange downward trendline above, this scenario might be wrong meaning that I will be very bullish. - Until then, I would say buying in between my first support and the blue channel and orange trendline is not the best idea. - For those looking for a new entry to buy, it would be either breakout entry above or pullback entries at my supports at 44.60~46.60, 39.30~ 41.30, and 33.30~ 35.30. - Resistances that I am keeping my eyes on are 55.80~57.80, 62.40~64.40, and 68.40~70.40.
NYSE:TWTR
by Tommy_Trader
1
Will Ascending Triangle fail soon?#EURUSD #FX #4H #Tommy - Here’s EURUSD 4hr chart and I have made an assumption that the bearish wave starting from around 1.23470 is an impulsive wave cycle in Elliott wave perspective. - It’s currently testing bottom of the orange ascending triangle with top located around 1.11240 and this very wave structure also can be expressed with an orange upward parallel channel. - At the same time, purple short-term downward trendline keeps showing strong rejections. I will be bearish if bottom of the ascending triangle breaks below first. - On the other hand, I will be bullish if purple trendline breaks above and even more bullish when it successfully breaks the top of the ascending triangle above. - If EURUSD successfully breaks ascending triangle above, a considerable resistance area to enter short position is at 1.13100~1.13600. - This resistance is a confluent zone of blue trendline, top of black channel, top of the orange channel, 0.786 retracement level, HVP pivot level, and inner trendline and is valid only until April 9th. - If I were to design a short trading setup, it would be as below. Short (Valid until 04/09) EP: 1.13100 SL: 1.13970 (-870 PIPS) TP1: 1.11790 (+1310 PIPS) -> RR: 1.51 TP2: 1.10260 (+2840 PIPS) -> RR: 3.26
by Tommy_Trader
EURGBP | Some entry points with nice RRs#EURGBP #4HR #FXCM - FX likes parallel channels very much these days. I am waiting EUR/GBP to break the top of blue falling wedge which I find it very steep. - The area that caused a sharp bounce today is the confluence zone where yellow channel and bottom of the wedge overlap. - If we see another swing low, I am expecting to enter long position at the support at 0.83390~0.83530. - This zone is where bottom of white channel, green trendline, bottom of the wedge, and 1.13 expansion level all exist and is only valid until 23:00 January 5th of 2022 in Korean time (UTC+9). - Long trading setups can be designed as below: Long EP: 0.83530 SL: 0.83310 (-220Pips) TP1: 0.83980 (+450Pips) RR: 2.05 TP2: 0.84490 (+960Pips) RR: 4.36
Long
by Tommy_Trader
Does 200k sound absurd? All of the possible scenarios for BTC#BTCUSD #Bitstamp #Weekly #Log #EW - Hello traders from all over the world! It’s been a while since we’ve looked deep into the possible scenarios of Bitcoin in long-term EW perspective. The uploaded images are BTC weekly log scaled chart. Personally, I believe that spotting market trend and price actions utilizing Elliott wave theory is not that significant. So please just refer this post to roughly capture some possible trend flows and major PRZs (Potential Reversal Zone). - All of the cases I have prepared today have an assumption that the upward wave starting from the low at $3000 is an impulsive wave cycle(Blue wave 5). Or else there would be too many for me to cover in an upload. Scenarios with different assumptions are to be covered in the future. - Let’s start with scenario A first, my most bearish case. This wave counts regard that the current upward wave(30k~70k) is green sub-wave 5 of the blue wave 5. Even though I drew the whole impulsive black wave cycle in A-1, it is still possible that green wave 5 is still in progress as shown in A-2. This means that we might expect one more upward wave and the rough target price for wave 5 is around 95K~120K. - Scenario B implies that the on-going wave(30k~70k) is sub-wave B of the green wave 4. This case has reflected that this very wave structure is closer to 5-3-5-3-5 rather than 5-3-5 zigzags and thus expanded flat wave B was considered. It is more bullish than the first scenario in a longer term, but bearish in a shorter term. If Bitcoin makes a high higher than 69K, this wave count is no more valid and the scenario A-2 becomes more likely. The green wave 4 is targeted at 17k~23k. - Following case which interpreted that the green wave 3 has not ended, is scenario C. This count is somewhat similar to scenario A that the upward wave(30k~70k) has been considered as an impulsive, but this case regarded with lower degree(red). C-1 shows that the target price for green wave 4 is similar to that of scenario B when 69K is considered as the end of green wave 3. On the other hand, similar to A-2, C-2 also implied that black sub-wave 5 of green wave 3 has not ended yet and 95k~120k would be a rough target. After that if we see a corrective wave, possibly green wave 4, the green wave 5 can be targeted at 180k~220k. More precise targets are to be deducted later when more sub wave structures are formed. - Last but not least, scenario D is assuming that the ongoing wave is the black sub-wave 4 of the green wave 3. This case also applied the expanded flat just like scenario B, but lower wave degree has been counted. If Bitcoin succeeds on breaking the high at 69k, this case becomes invalid and scenario C will gain some weight. Similar target prices from the previous cases are regarded for black wave 4 and 5 and the green wave 4 and 5 will be specified after.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Tommy_Trader
2
Always perceive your risk first, before determining the reward#EURGBP #Daily #Europound #FOREX #Tommy - The market has been quite tough for many commodities recently due to the effects of the global economy. - The FX market is not exceptional and it has never been this brutal. Nevertheless, who should we blame as a trader? It’s not the whales or other stakeholders in the market. It should be ourselves since trading is a series of endless battles against our own ego. - Here is Euro/British Pound daily which I trade very often. I found a confluent support zone at 0.83400~0.83900 which might be a good entry for a decent risk reward ratio. - Below is a long trading setup where stoploss and target prices are written in percentage instead of pips (or ticks). Make sure to use proper leverages or pips and also check if the position size can be covered by your seed money. Long (Valid until Nov 15th) EP: 0.83900 SL: 0.83250 (-0.77%) TP1: 0.84920 (+1.22%) TP2: 0.85960 (+2.46%)
by Tommy_Trader
2
BTC is a finest SL hunter these days. #BTCUSDT #Binance #Daily #Midterm - What a sharp drop! Bitcoin was rejected thoroughly at 52K zone which is around bottom of the major orderblock formed around early May 2021. - I have addressed this very resistance gathering technical factors such as numerous upward trendlines, top of the parallel channels, and projection/expansion/retracement levels of the wave structures. - In my Elliott Wave perspective, since Bitcoin has failed swing high, I am leaning slightly more towards the 52K high being the end of the wave B and thus expecting another bearish wave to come which then would be wave C. - In a shorter term, make sure to consistently check whether bottoms of the yellow and white channels are valid. - From the fact that the bottom of the recent dip happens to be located at the LVP(Low Volume Peak), I will definitely be more bearish if bottom of the yellow channel fails supporting. - Here are some of the areas that I find them attractive to enter long position if we observe more drops: 37K~38K (Valid until 9/18), 33.2K~34.8K (Valid until 10/05). - If these supports are broken later, according to many wave theories and methodologies, I strongly expect Bitcoin to rally down to test the mid-term bottom around 29K. The ultimatum support that I am considering is around 23K~25K. - Lastly, if Bitcoin sort of forms widening or broadening pattern and make an HH, the next resistance that I deducted is 56.5K~58.5K.
by Tommy_Trader
Reason why I am bearish on 10Y T-Note#ZN1! #10YearTNote #Weekly #CBOT - I took a deep look into the 10-year Treasury Note, futures commodity. The chart above is weekly. - In Elliott Wave Theory perspective, an assumption has been made that the bullish wave starting from the swing low at 117’13’5 to the swing high at 140’20’0 as am impulsive 5-3-5-3-5 zig zag wave structure. - With that said, I am weighing more on the possibility that the bullish wave from 130’25’0 to 135’15’0 is an 5-3-5 ABC corrective phase and this scenario becomes a bit more solid if bottom of the blue channel fails supporting. - While expecting another corrective wave, a major confluent zone to keep an eye on is the red circle on the chart. This is where an inner downward trendline, a neckline (green trendline), and 0.382 retracement level overlaps. - However, entering long here seems quite risky considering the RR ratio. Also, if the potential neckline (green trendline) breaks below, I am way more bearish expecting widening/broadening pattern. - Those aggressive traders willing to take the risk here (buying at red circle), make sure to set a tight stoploss. I would rather be patient and wait until the price action gets confirmed and enter short if the trendline fails supporting. - Here are some of the decent areas to enter long position if the H&S case is likely after observing failure of support at the neckline: 128’5~129’5 and 124’9~125’9.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by Tommy_Trader
Some of possible scenarios for Bitcoin#BTCUSDT #Binance #Daily #Tommy - Assuming that the high formed at 42K on Jan 9th of 2021 is the blue impulsive wave 3, these are some of the Elliott wave countings that I am personally in consideration. - The counting at the upper left is one of my primary scenarios that Bitcoin is going through. I denoted the upward impulsive wave at 29K~66K as an ending diagonal wave 5 along with the downward corrective wave after most likely being the wave A. - Observing the wave structures located at the top, I could also suspect the 66K high as the expanded flat wave B (upper right) and the following correction afterwards would then become a WXY correction where wave failure has occurred. The reason I included this scenario is that the wave structure at 50K~66K seems more like a 5-3-5, rather then 5-3-5-3-5 zigzag. - The bottom left one is where I viewed the high at 60K as truncated wave 5. Similar to the second scenario, the bearish price momentum that reached 30K then can be interpreted as wave A. I am not putting so much weight on this one since the yellow wave 3 within the blue wave 5 seems a bit obscure. - Lastly, the wave counting at bottom right is one of my most bullish scenarios where the downward waves after the 60K high are considered as the ABC corrective waves. This means that the correction are done and thus the new impulsive wave cycle is starting.
by Tommy_Trader
2
CADUSD | When and where to enter long and short#CADUSD #Futures #6CM2021 #1HR - Here is CADUSD futures 1hr chart. Currently, yellow upward trendline is supporting and a short-term bottom has been formed at 0.82370. I am more bearish when this bottom fails supporting. - When that happens before 5/20 19:00, I am looking at 0.82200~0.82280 as a short-term support. If you wish to enter long here, make sure to take profit under the previous bottom at 0.82370 since it will then act as a resistance due to SR Flip. - On the other hand, if CADUSD rallies upward to test the top of the white channel before 5/20 18:00, 0.82760~0.82840 seems to be a decent resistance. If white channel gets broken above, 0.82990~0.83070 is next resistance I am considering. - If the market gets bearish and goes through some more correction, here are some of the supports for long entry: 0.81530~0.81630, 0.81110~0.81210, and 0.80540~0.80670. - All of the periodic references are in Korean standard time (UTC+09:00).
CME:6CM2021
by Tommy_Trader
Don't dare try to forecast Prices at future. Unless you are GOD.#BTCUSDT #Binance #4HR #Tommy - Here is BTC 4hr that showed a sharp V shaped bounce around 30K with that long candle tail at bottom and this tells us that the bulls rejected bears very hard thus pushing the price up. - The new low at 30K is where the log-scaled trendline passes. Reason why we need to watch both the linear and log chart. - For now, the most significant resistance is located at 41K~42K which I marked it with a red box. This resistance has numerous technical factors overlapping each other. - Blue downward trendline, bottom of the purple parallel channel, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the corrective wave, 1:1 extension level of the correction wave structure at top, and previous major consolidations are all passing this zone. - Rather than entering short at this very area, taking action after confirming the breakout of this level sounds like a much safer trade. If BTC breaks this area above, I would be bullish for short-term. - This breakout is also very meaningful because it means that BTC re-entered the purple parallel channel. - Some of the short-term resistances to keep our eyes on are 44.5K~45.1K, 48.2K~49.2K, and 50.8K~51.8K.
by Tommy_Trader
1
If 46K fails supporting, expect some bears!#BTCUSDT #Binance #4hr #Tommy - Here is Bitcoin 4hr chart. A consolidation zone where price tends to move sideways, is currently being constructed in the range of 46K~51K. Here are some of major points to be updated. - A strong bottom has been consolidated around 46K which could be speculated from the point that it made about 4 meaningful lows recently. This technical circumstance recommends taking trading actions after this bottom breaks below, rather than entering long here. - More specifically, entering short once this bottom shows some signals of failure to support or entering long after confirming next support’s reinforcement. - In a shorter term, green short-term downward trendline has been broken over and if BTC corrects and reaches the retest zone (46700~47400) before 5/17 08:00, entering long with a tight stoploss seems like a nice setup. - Pay attention to the major downward parallel channels such as the green and orange ones. Observing the bottom of these channels and other technical factors, 43800~444000(valid until 5/21 1700), 41300~42200(Valid until 5/22 13:00), and 38400~39400 seems like some major supports. - Resistances that could be considered are 51800~52300(Valid until 5/19 21:00), 53800~54400(valid until 5/21 21:00), 57400~58200(valid until 5/21 21:00), and 60400~61300(Valid until 5/22 21:00). - RSI for 4hr shows that it is moving in a green downward trendline. Within that channel with a shorter term, a purple upward channel also exists, A decent resistance could be expected when RSI reaches the area where these tops overlap each other.
by Tommy_Trader
8
Elon Musk and Bart Simpson are definitely allies.#BTCUSDT #4HR #Binance #Tommy - Elon Musk is abusing the finance market. Tesla’s recent announcement that they will no longer adopt Crypto technology for their payment system, has shocked the market. - Technically, a rounded head pattern that signals the trend reversal had been formed before a big correction. Some of the similar patterns that could be interpreted as a possible trend reversal, would be Head&Shoulder, diamond, and cup&handle. - Anyhow, according to Binance BTCUSDT 4hr chart, Lower Low has been confirmed around 46K. This is not a huge gap so it could also be considered as a double bottom. In Elliott wave perspective, the current bearish momentum being wave C would be my major bearish counting. - Some of the major supports are 43900~44500(Valid until 5/19 05:00), 41500~42500(Valid5/21 13:00), and 38400~39400. - Lastly considerable resistances are located at 52300~52800, 53800~54400(Valid until 5/17 13:00), 57400~58200(Valid until 5/19 21:00), and 60500~61200(Valid until 5/23 1:00). - All of the periodic references are in Korean standard time (UTC+09:00).
by Tommy_Trader
5
GBPJPY | Currently in the area to expect high risk reward ratio#GBPJPY #Forex #Weekly #SwingTrades Considerable Support and Resistance Support: 140.000~142.500 (Valid until 6/24) Resistance: 154.500~156.500 (Valid until 5/31) Short (Valid until 5/31) EP: 155.500 SL: 158.600 (-3100 pips) TP1: 149.500 (+6000 pips, RR: 1.94) TP2: 144.500 (+11127 pips, RR: 3.59) #GBPJPY #Forex #Weekly #SwingTrades Considerable Support and Resistance Support: 140.000~142.500 (Valid until 6/24) Resistance: 154.500~156.500 (Valid until 5/31) Short (Valid until 5/31) EP: 155.500 SL: 158.600 (-3100 pips) TP1: 149.500 (+6000 pips, RR: 1.94) TP2: 144.500 (+11127 pips, RR: 3.59)
by Tommy_Trader