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Kovach

Bitcoin Still Holding the $20K'sBitcoin is still wavering in the neighborhood of $20K. We dipped several times into the $19K's with $19.5K a consistent lower bound, thus we have added it as a new level. If support breaks here, then $18.6K is the next level down. If we are able to build some momentum, $20.7K should provide resistance, then $22.4K is the next target after that. The Kovach OBV is still abysmally bearish, but does appear to be leveling off, suggesting that we may have bottomed out in this price range.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
DXY Hits Our Target! What's Next?The US dollar has broken through highs and hit our exact target at 109.86, before retracing slightly. The headline Nonfarm payrolls today was a miss, suggesting weakness in the economy which might effect the rate hike probabilities slightly, but we are still expected to see a 50-75 bps rate hike this month. That being said, the hawkishness of the Fed is likely to be completely priced into the forex market soon, and the dollar may be topping off. If we do see another rally, then 110.20 is the next target. Otherwise, we should see support from the 108's, at 108.50 in particular.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
The Two Main Factors Effecting Oil PricesOil saw support at $85.55, confirmed by many green triangles on the KRI. As anticipated, we saw a nice pivot there, bouncing back just below $90. We are currently testing $88.74, but a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Recession fears, bolstered by the non farm payrolls headline miss, will likely weigh on the price, however supply side shortages will likely keep prices above $85.55 for now. Our level at $90.06 is likely to be a ceiling for the time being.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
How will Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Release Effect Stocks?The S&P 500 caught a small rally yesterday, but it could be short-lived. After such a strong selloff, we were due for a relief rally at some point. It appears the markets are still pricing in what the Fed will do this month at their FOMC meeting, but a 50-75 bps is the most likely. We tested the exact level we predicted at 3909. Subsequently, we bounced back to the upper 3900's, where we started running into resistance. In particular, 3978 is proving difficult to crack, but if we are able to, then 4009 will be the next major hurdle and first level in the 4000's. If things turn south, expect support at 3909 again, then the next major level is a low at 3825, but we are likely to find some support in between for the time being. Headline figures from Nonfarm Payroll data for August suggest some weakness with a headline miss and two month downward revision. This may dampen the Fed's hawkish tone slightly, but we are still likely to see the rate hike we mentioned above. Stocks are likely to continue in a slump until September's FOMC.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bond Market Reacts to Nonfarm and FedBonds fell again, hitting our next target at 115'29. Yields are creeping up as the markets are pricing in the next rate hike, expected to be 50-75 bps . Nonfarm payrolls gave us some insight into economic conditions: unemployment rose to 3.7%, with a headline miss and downward revision. This suggests that the economy is weakening further, and we are in a period of stagflation. Yields subsequently weakened and we are seeing a slight pivot off 1529. If we rally, we could hit 116'20 or even 117'08. If the figures are hotter than expected it should bolster the Fed's hawkish rhetoric and we could break through 115'29, to 115'03.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Can Litecoin Break Out?Litecoin has made a run for highs, testing our level at $55.84. We are seeing a lot of red triangles at this level, suggesting that this is an auspicious level for LTC and it will take quite a bit of momentum to punch through. We are seeing quite a bit of volatility, and are rapidly oscillating between $51.92, and $55.84. We do seem to be tending toward this upper bound, and potentially gearing up for a breakout. If so, we must maintain sufficient momentum to pass through the vacuum zone above to the next level and target at $61.75.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Can Ethereum Test the $1700's Again?The impending 'merge' this month is apparently doing little for Ethereum. We seem to see small pumps in the APAC session, which fade quickly in the NAM session. Yesterday, we managed to break $1547, but have since retraced to support here. If this level breaks, then $1424 is the next level below. If we can pivot off $1547, then $1653 is the next target, where we will begin to see resistance starting at this level and a cluster of levels above in the $1700's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Oil Hits our TargetOil has tumbled, giving up the $90's entirely, and plummetting deeper into the $80's. We have breached $90.06, and several levels after that in the upper $80's. In particular, $87.21, our target from yesterday, was hit exactly (to the tick) and is currently providing support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If we plummet further, our next target is $85.55. If we can manage to pivot, we should be able to test the $90's again, with $90.06 to provide resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Recession Keeps Hammering StocksIncreasingly more market participants seem to be realizing that we are, in fact, in a recession, despite what our overlords are proffering in the propaganda outlets. The S&P 500 has careened into lower levels, finally finding support just one level above that which we predicted yesterday at 3909. Indeed, 3928 seems to be holding, with green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV is abysmally bearish, but may be starting to show some meager signs of leveling off. After 3909, the next major target is 3825, another relative low. If we are able to catch a relief rally then 4009 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin holds on to the $20K'sBitcoin has edged higher, hugging the $20K level. We have broken just above this level but are still a bit far from $20.7K, a technical level Bitcoin has tested many times over the past few months. The Kovach OBV is very bearish, but does appear to be leveling off. We must first break $20.7K before testing higher levels the next of which would be $22.4K. If we reject current levels we should find support at $18.6K which we expect to be a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Recession Fears Slam OilOil plummeted off recession fears , rejecting the mid $90's. Technically we are already in a recession (by multiple metrics) but our puppet masters would like us to think otherwise, constantly chasing hope like a carrot on a fishing pole. We slammed past multiple levels in the $90's, giving up the $90 handle entirely. We are currently testing $88.74, with the next level down being $87.21. If we can test higher levels, then the $90's will provide a barrier, in particular at $90.06. A relative low at $85.55 should serve as our anticipated floor price for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Recession Weighs on StocksThe S&P 500 has slipped further after making a run for higher levels. Yesterday, we tested two levels that we have been identifying as targets for weeks now: first we touched 4009, then made a brief pivot to 4068, where we saw immediate resistance, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We subsequently plummeted as the risk off tone permeated the markets. We gave up the 4000 handle entirely, testing as low as 3963, where we saw green triangles on the KRI confirming support. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish, but we could see support from a relative low at 3909. If we pivot, we must first break through 4009 again then 4068 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
US Digs into Oil ReservesOil has made a run for higher levels, testing the next level above $95.24 at $96.88. US oil reserves are at lows not seen since 1984 , as the Biden administration hastily digs into reserves to frantically buoy prices before midterms. Nevertheless, we are still trekking closer to the $100 mark. If we are able to break through $96.88 then $100 is the next target. We should have some resistance there. If things turn south, then $92.03, or $90.06 are candidates for a floor price for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Bottom Out... For Now...After plummetting to the bottom of the 4000 handle, stocks made a meager attempt at a rally. Our level at 4009 was the exact low of the S&P 500. It touched this level and promptly pivoted, testing the next level at 4068. However red triangles on the KRI immediately confirmed resistance and have been struggling to break through. If we can, then 4122 is the next target. It seems that 4009 provided good support but in the event of another selloff, 3978 and 3963 are the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Finds Support in the Low $50'sLitecoin found support in the low $50's touching our level exactly at $51.92. We caught a nice pivot, and tested the next level above which we also identified perfectly, to the tick, at $55.84. A red triangle on the KRI indicated resistance, and we swiftly rejected these prices, currently wavering in the vacuum zone between $51.92 and $55.84. We should establish value in this area, as the crypto markets are leveling off after the selloff from hawkish Fed rhetoric permeated the markets.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy