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Kovach

Can Stocks Break 4300?Stocks keep edging higher, breaking new relative highs albeit gradually. We broked from 4272 to 4293. The difference between daily highs is decreasing, suggesting a retracmenet could be near. If so, 4214, or 4188 are good candidates for support. If we are able to rally again today, then 4306 is the next target. This would also be the first technical level in the 4300 handle. The market rally seems to be hinging on expectations of a more dovish Fed outlook, especially after the 50bps rate hike expected in September. Housing and retail sales data will help provide a clearer picture this week.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
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Can Litecoin Hold the $60's?Litecoin attempted higher levels in the $60's, but faced strong resistance at $64.37. We appeared to make a valiant attempt at breaking through to $66.94, but retraced hard back to support at $61.75. This level appears to be holding so far, but watch the vacuum zone below to $55.84. We do appear to be seeing a large bull wedge forming since the end of July and spanning all of August, which could suggest that LTC is gearing up for a breakout. If so, we must first solidly break $64.37 before we are able to establish higher levels in the $60's.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Hits Our Target Then Retraces...Ethereum reached our target of $2025, then sharply retraced. We gave up the $2K's entirely, and even cut through the $1900's, currently finding support in the high $1800's, in the thicket of a cluster of levels in this price area. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does seem to have leveled off. News of 'the merge', a significant technical development and transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, has been priced in, and it seems the fervor is over for now. If support in the $1800's fails, then our next level is $1748. If we rally, we must break $2025 before considering higher levels.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Open Near HighsStocks opened near highs as investors digest last week's data. We have retail sales and housing data this week, which may contribute to a clearer picture of the Fed's plan for their September meeting. Currently, the estimate seems to be a 50bps rate hike, followed by a potential softening in policy stance. The S&P 500 hit our target of 4272, and seems to be tapering slightly. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has started to level off. If we see resistance here, watch for support in the lower 4200's or 4188. If we are able to break out again, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Gold Rejects the $1800'sGold has rejected higher levels, and retraced to support. Recall that we are in a previous value area between 1795 and 1815, which coincides roughly with the 0.618 Fibonacci level at around 1800. We should see support from the lower bound at 1795, and potentially pivot and test 1815 again. This level should provide formidable resistance, confirmed recently by multiple red triangles on the KRI. If we fail to muster the strength to pivot from current levels, then we should see support around 1780, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Two Reasons Why Ethereum Could SoarEthereum rallied significantly, reaching the $1900's. A softer Fed rate hike outlook has given virtually all markets, including the crypto market, the green light to rally. Additionally, a long awaited event for Ethereum known to the community simply as ' the merge ' is set to take place in September, which would offer significant upgrades to the Ethereum network including the transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, a technical breakthrough that has already been validated on the test networks. Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap, so this news will permeate the crypto market in general. We have broken through to the $1900's, but fell short at $1945. We have not made a significant retracement, but momentum appears to have stalled out for now. We are holding the high $1800's, and should have support from $1821, or at worst, $1748. The Kovach OBV is steadily trending upwards, confirming the rally. Our next major target is $2025 if it can continue.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Can Bitcoin Break $25K??Bitcoin surged past our resistance level at $23.9K. We came very close to our next target at $25.1K, before retracing back to support at $23.9K. Now that the markets feel that the Fed will start to soften their hawkish stance, markets have the green light to rally. But it has been slow and steady for Bitcoin. The level $25.1K remains an upper bound, and the target to break before reaching higher levels. If $23.9K fails to provide support, then there is a vacuum zone below to $22.4K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
DXY Finds SupportThe US dollar has found some support from lows. The DXY has broken down into the 104's, but 104.83 has proven to be a lower bound. We appear to be seeing a double bottom there, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be making an attempt for the 106's again, but our level at 105.78 seems to be prohibitive for now. We have broken past 105.25 but just barely. If we can break 105.78, then 106.13 is the next target and we will have reestablished the previous range. If not, 104.83 should hold as a lower bound for now.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Oil Regains the Mid-$90'sOil has finally broken out, solidly reestablishing the $90's after spending a few days in the high $80's. We are still bound by $95.24, which has been our target and area of anticipated resistance since oil was in the $87's. We are seeing some red triangles on the KRI confirming strong resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it remains to be seen if we have enough strength to punch through the mid $90's and head back to the $100's. If we are able to break through $95.24, then $96.88 is the last level we must break before the $100's. If so, we should face resistance at $100 and $101.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Softer Fed Outlook Fuels Stock RallyStocks have rallied, breaking through to higher levels. The markets seem to interpret recent economic data in a manner that suggests that the Fed is going to cool down their hawkish stance. Right now, a 50bps rate hike is expected for September (potentially the last one), whereas 75bps was not off the table before Wednesday's CPI. This was further supported by Producer Prices. Markets are considering this a green light to rally again. We have broken past 4245, but have fallen just short of our target of 4272. Resistance is confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up with the rally, but it does appear that momentum is stalling. We are due for a bit of a retracement, with 4188 a reasonable area to expect support. If the rally can continue then 4272 is the next target with 4293 and 4306 in line after that.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Gold Steadies in the low $1800'sGold is consolidating in the narrow range between 1815 and 1795. Recall that this was a previous value area from a few months prior. We are wavering about 1800, which is a strong psychological level corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, suggesting that we need more momentum either way before making a significant move. We should have strong support at 1780, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. If we break out, the next target is 1826, then 1836.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Hit $2K?Ethereum shot up after the CPI print yesterday. We solidly broke past resistance in the high $1700's, and smashed our target of $1821. We then blew past several levels in the $1800's, and hit $1900, where we finally retraced. Almost a $200 rally seemed a bit too ambitious for ETH for yesterday, but we are still solidly holding the high $1800's, with support from $1872. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI confirming the resistance. If we retrace, we should have support from the $1872 and $1821. Our next target is $2025, if we can break the $1900's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
CPI Smashes the DollarThe DXY tumbled off CPI, with 8.5% inflation considered a 'beat' because it came in lower than the estimate of 8.7%. The DXY broke the lower bound of the range at 106.13, and tumbled through the 105's, finding support in the 104 handle. We tested our level at 104.83, with a green triangle on the KRI confirming support. We then tested the next level above at 105.25, but resistance here was prohibitive. Currently, we are testing 104.83 again. We should have strong support from levels below in the low 104's, but after that there is a vacuum zone to 103.24.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
How Yesterday's CPI will Impact Stocks and the FedStocks got a pump from CPI data yesterday. The figure came in at 8.5%, one of the highest in history, however the estimate was 8.7%, so it technically fell short of expectations, even though this figure is still well higher than normal. After this reading, the implied probability of a Fed hike of 75bps fell 30%, which gave the markets a green light to rally. Stocks broke above highs at 4188, and are holding in the 4200's, currently testing our level at 4228. The Kovach OBV has leveled off but is still strong. If we retrace, we should have support at our former high of 4188, but if we retrace the range, then 4122 will provide further support. If the rally can continue, then 4172 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Range Ahead of CPIStocks have established highs, then immediately rejected them, and are continuing the sideways correction. We mentioned that 4178 and 4188 will be very hard to break, as they correspond to relative highs from a previous range held in June. We are seeing support from 4122, but we are on the precipice of a vacuum zone below to 4068. There is another vacuum zone below that to 4009. The Kovach OBV has leveled off so if nothing signficant happens, then we should maintain the current range. All eyes are on CPI today, which will provide a reading on the massive inflation we have been seeing as of late. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's plan to raise rates, potentially by 50bps at the September FOMC. Don't expect much action in stocks until at least 8:30AM EST, when the data is released.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Dips into the $50'sLitecoin retraced hard with the rest of the crypto market. We were able to establish $64.37, a relative highs, resistance level, and the target we announced at the beginning of this month. We noted that it was likely to see strong resistance here and that is exactly what we are seeing. We rejected $64.37 hard, and plummeted back into the $50's, currently in the mid $58's at the time of this writing. We are in the middle of the vacuum zone between $55.84 and $61.75. The lower bound should provide support, and it will take strong momentum to break through the upper bound of this range again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Rejects the $1800'sEthereum broke through a cluster of levels in the high $1700's, briefly testing the $1800's, and coming very close to our target of $1821, where it rejected the $1800's hard. It has since plummeted through those levels in the $1700's, finding support at $1653, which is the first of the cluster of levels we mentioned earlier. We are currently finding support here, but if we break lower, then $1547 is the next support level down. The Kovach OBV has leveled off, so anticipate further support here, at least until CPI figures are released at 8:30AM EST. If we are able to rally, then the $1800's still remain a significant barrier, which will take formidable momentum to break.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy