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Kovach

Litecoin Stabilizes in the Mid $50'sLitecoin has retraced from the mid $60's, but has found good support just above our level at $55.84. We are seeing good support from this level, and are currently ranging between this and $59. We have not gotten the follow through to reestablish the $60's, but a burst of momentum could take us back to $61.75, where we are sure to meet resistance. If we retrace past support at $55.84, there is a vacuum zone to $51.92, where we are sure to see further support.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
DXY Finds SupportThe US dollar has pivoted from the lows of the corrective impulse, right around our level at 105.25. We have blasted through the 105's and reestablished the 106 handle, hovering just above our level at 106.13 at the time of this writing. We should equilibrate between 105.25 and 106.13, but if we see a rally, there is a vacuum zone above to 107.20. If we reject the 106's we should see support in the 105's but if this caves, 104.83 is the next level where we can anticipate support.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Sideways Correction in StocksThe S&P 500 has retraced slightly from highs at 4144, testing support at 4068, as we anticipated yesterday. We are seeing good support from 4068. We appear to be forming a sideways corrective pattern, a technical corrective phase after a rally from the 3K's brought us back to highs not seen since June. It is likely we will hold this range until stocks can muster another breakout. If that is the case then we must break through 4144 before we can attempt highs from June's range at 4188. If we retrace further, watch the vacuum zone to 4009.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Ethereum Rejects Upper LevelsEthereum retraced hard from highs around $1748. We were about to clear a dense cluster of levels ending at $1748, but a rejection took us back through the vacuum zone to support at $1547. We are finding support just above this level at $1564 at the time of this writing. If support holds, we could pivot and make a run for that cluster of levels again, starting at $1653. If support does not hold, we could fall further to $1424. The Kovach OBV has slumped significantly, so we will need more momentum to come through if we expect to pivot.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Retrace After Hitting Our TargetStocks have hit our target of 4144, but ran into resistance here. The price action swiftly rounded off, forming a top at this level. We have since retraced back into the vacuum zone between 4122 and 4168. We should have further support at 4068, but if we retrace further then there is a vacuum zone below to 4009. The Kovach OBV has ticked downward with the retracement. We will need more momentum to punch through 4122 and 4144 before we can consider higher levels at 4178 and 4188, which are the next targets.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
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Ethereum Holding Near HighsEthereum is ranging between $1653 and $1748. We have a dense cluster of levels in between these two boundaries, and the price action appears to be caught in between them. We do appear to be seeing a flag consolidation pattern, so we will see if the market can sustain another breakout. If we are able to break past $1748, then we should be clear to hit $1821, which is our next technical level and significant target. If we retrace, expect support at $1547.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Falls Short of $25K, will it Retrace Further?Bitcoin has broken out past $23.9K, then immediately retraced back to comfort between $22.4K and $23.9K. We appear to be seeing a head and shoulders type pattern and if so, this will signify some resistance and perhaps a further retracement. If that is the case, expect support at $22.4K, then there is a vacuum zone down to $20.7K. The Kovach OBV has established highs but has rounded off gradually. If we are able to see more momentum then $25.1K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Can Oil Regain the $100's?Oil made an attempt at higher levels, hitting both of our targets at $100 then $101 before retracing back to the $90's. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending upward, so we are seeing a bull bias. But the $100's seem to be a hard upper bound for now. Currently, we are seeing good support around $95.24, a familiar level. We may also be seeing a bull wedge forming. Together, this suggests we may be making another attempt at higher levels. We will need to clear $100 and $101 before considering higher levels, the next target being $106. If we retrace further, then $92.03, and $90.06 should provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can Stocks Continue Their Rally??Stocks have broken out and hit our next level of 4122. We are meeting steep resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has lifted, and its clear that momentum has returned at least for now. It is likely that the markets think that the Fed may adopt an easier policy now that we are formally in a recession. If momentum continues, 4144 is the next target, then 4178 and 4188. If we retrace, then we have a vacuum zone below to 4068 then 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Caught in Resistance LevelsEthereum rallied, breaking through relative highs in the $1600's, but running into the resistance we mentioned yesterday. We are currently caught in a thicket of technical levels, which we identified yesterday, which appear to be prohibiting us from reaching our next target at $1821. The levels span from $1653 to $1748. We appear to be ranging in this value area. If more momentum comes through we can break through to $1821. If we retrace, watch for support at $1547.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Rallies Again, Meets ResistanceBitcoin broke out and is hovering just under relative highs. We caught a nice pivot from $20.7K, but resistance from $23.9K is proving prohibitive at the moment. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but we must first break this barrier at $24K. It appears that some life has returned to the markets, as the GDP numbers yesterday indicated, by definition, that we are in a recession. This means that the Fed will have to turn to more dovish rhetoric, which may reinvigorate buying interest in stocks and crypto. If so, the next target is $25.1K. If we retrace, expect support from $20.7K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
DXY Begins to UnwindThe DXY has retraced a bit but found support at 105.78. The retracement follows as the dollar strength is unwinding due to investors gradually flowing back into other assets, as they seem to be anticipatign a more dovish Fed after GDP numbers yesterday formally confirmed that we are in a recession, by definition. We got a nice pivot from 105.78, which took us back to the value area between 106.13 and 107.20. If we are able to break out, then 108.50 is the next target. If we retrace further, then 105.25 should provide support.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
What the Recession and FOMC Mean for StocksStocks have broken out as we identified yesterday. The fact that stocks and bonds have both caught a bid gives us insight as to how the markets are interpreting the FOMC rate hike and the GDP numbers yesterday. As we all know, GDP numbers came in negative, the second negative reading, which puts us formally in a recession by definition. Furthermore, the Fed only raised rates by 75bps (some sources were predicting 100bps). This suggests that they will likely pivot to a more dovish stance, and be forced to lower rates, or take a more accommodating stance to fight the recession, meaning that stocks are clear to rally. There is still a lot of open interest with puts in the 4000's, but when cash heavy investors start to unwind we could easily punch through. The S&P 500 broke out, clearing 4009 with ease, and hitting 4068, our next target. We broke through that and are making a run for 4122, hovering just below that. If we see more momentum come through then we will likely test 4178 or 4188, we will likely face resistance there, but will have reestablished the value area between 4068 and 4188 from June. If we retrace, watch for support at 4009, a relative high and technical level.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Strong Rally in GoldGold has continued to rally, breaking through to the upper 1700's, and reaching our target of 1780. This is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which was our target from yesterday's report. A lot of buying momentum has come through for gold, which just a few days ago tested the low 1700's, with a relative low of 1684. As anticipated we are running into resistance here, confirmed by multiple red triangles on the KRI. If we are able to break through the next target is 1800, which is a psychological level and 0.618 Fibonacci level. If we retrace, we should have good support from 1758, the 0.382 Fibonacci level below.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy