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Kovach

Stock Rally Meets ResistanceStocks keep edging higher, but the rally is increasingly more labored, as we struggle through resistance levels. The price action is 'rounding off' which suggests that a retracement may be near. If so, 3937 or 3909 are reasonable targets. However, we are bordering on a vacuum zone to higher levels, the next target being 4068, which would coincide with lows of the range the S&P 500 held in early June. If we are able to punch through current levels of resistance we should see strong momentum at open, otherwise as retracement is likely.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Stabilizes at $1500Ethereum gave up the $1600's as we anticipated yesterday. It was making a valiant attempt, but multiple levels of resistance and a lack of momentum resulted in a rejection back to current levels, where we are finding support at $1500, a psychological level. It is likely that we will find a value area soon between $1424 and $1653. The Kovach OBV has slumped, but does appear to have bottomed, which supports the assertion that we will range in a sideways correction until more momentum comes through.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Mkaes a Run for $1600Ethereum appears to have solidified the $1500's, making a run for $1600, where we are seeing resistance. Multiple red triangles on the KRI are confirming the resistance here. The Kovach OBV has slumped, so be prepared for a retracement, which could take us back to $1424 or $1341. If we correct further than that, we will find support around $1235. If we can sustain another breakout, there is lots of resistance in the $1700's, but $1821 will be the next target after that.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Bitcoin Finally Breaks Out of the RangeBitcoin finally broke out of the range, but is encountering a lot of resistance at the next target above, which we identified yesterday at $23.9K. Multiple red triangles on the KRI are confirming the resistance, but the Kovach OBV is strong. If momentum can sustain, then $25.1K is the next target, then there is a vacuum zone to $27.9K. If we retrace, we should see support at $22.4K, then $20K. A retracement could take us back to the familiar range between $18.6K and $22.4K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Oil Hovers Under $100Oil has edged upward, but is meeting lots of resistance in the high $90's, just below the target of $100. We edged past $100 briefly, only to retrace back to comfort at the base of the $99 handle at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is trending up, but appears weak, suggesting we will need more momentum to break through $100 definitively. Many red triangles on the KRI are signalling resistance here, so anticipate a rejection back to $95.24, or even $92.03. If we are able to break through the low $100's there is a vacuum zone to the next target of $106.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Can the S&P 500 Maintain the Rally?The S&P 500 has broken out, testing the very top of the range it has established this month. As predicted yeseterday, we hit our target of 3909. Momentum continued and we were able to hit 3963, before a brief retracement took us back to support in the low 3900's. The Kovach OBV is still flat, suggesting we will need more momentum to continue the rally. Watch for momentum at open. We are still at resistance from the top of the range and if we don't see much momentum at open, we can easily retrace back to support at 3810 or so. If we are able to break out, we only have a few more levels above until the 4K handle which is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Eth Tops Out in the $1600'sAfter breaking the upper bound of the range ETH has held for over a month, we have been on a steady rally. Once $1235 was broken, we were quickly able to solidify the $1400's then the $1500's, and even top out in the $1600's over night. Our level at $1653 seems to be a barrier for now, with a red triangle on the KRI to confirm resistance. The Kovach OBV has dropped off hard, so anticipate a retracement soon, potentially to $1424 or $1341. If not, we should have strong resistance in the $1700's, which should slow our ascent to $2K.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Fail to Break OutAs anticipated yesterday, the S&P 500 has rejected highs and sought support 3810, just under the mid point of the range the S&P 500 has been holding for July. This retracement was highly probable because we did not see the momentum follow through at open that it would take to break out higher. From here, we could test lows again, around 3737, which should hold as a floor. If momentum returns, we could test highs again at 3909, and potentially form a bull wedge pattern at this level which could indicate a potential breakout later this week.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Breaks Out!! 🚀📈🤑Ethereum has rallied significantly, breaking out of the range. We smashed through $1235, the upper bound of the range we have been maintaining for over a month, and shot past the next two levels above, at $1341 and $1424. We are in the middle of a vacuum zone to the next level after that at $1547. That would mark over a 50% rally from the base of the $1K handle which we have seen just 5 days ago. These returns have bested bitcoin by double digits, leaving traders wondering if this rally is here to stay or just a bull trap. So far the news seems to suggest this is a technical breakout . If we are able to maintain it, then $1547 is the next target, then $1653. If we retrace, we could easily drop back to the previous range between $1017 and $1235, so be careful.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Tests Highs of the RangeBitcoin saw a nice pump from a softer dollar and strength in stocks. We were able to break out of the $20K handle, and is currently testing the next level above at $22.4K. This is the very top of the range, and a well established level of resistance. A red triangle on the KRI provides confirmation that we are running into resistance here. If we can break through, then the next targets are $23.9K then $25.1K. If we fail to break out, we could test the base of the $20K handle again or lows at $18.6K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Oil Gives Up the $100'sOil appears to have bottomed out at our exact level of $92.03, with a wick extending to $90.06 as we predicted last Friday. We were then able to pivot back up to the mid $90's, meeting swift resistance at $96.88. We have several red triangles on the KRI signifying resistance around this price area, just before $100. Sub $100 prices will surely be welcome to consumers world wide, after soaring oil prices have hit relative highs in the $100's just a few months back. The Kovach OBV has bottomed out, which suggests that we will need strong momentum to come through to break current resistance. if so, $100 and $101 are the next targets. Othwerwise, we can expect to test $92.03 and $90.06 again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have rallied, with the S&P topping out at 3909. We have completely retraced the range, as recession fears and soaring inflation scared market participants last week causing a dip that tested lows at 3737. After breaking through this level and testing the next level below at 3714, we promptly pivoted, and retraced losses completely. However, we are running into resistance at 3909, and resistance is building confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it will take more momentum to break through to higher levels. Resistance above is thin, and there are only three levels above before the 4000 handle. If we fail to break resistance, we should find support at roughly the midpoint of the range, at 3848, or again at lows at 3714.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Pivots back to the low $50'sLitecoin has bottomed out just above our level at $45.48. We have pivoted off lows and made a run back for the $50's. Currently, $50.64 and $51.92 are providing steep resistance as we anticipated. If we are able to break through then we will surely meet further resistance at $55.84. The Kovach OBV is still completely bearish, without even the slightest uptick even with the pivot. This suggests a bear divergence that will surely take us back to support in the $40's again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Tests Highs of the RangeBitcoin has pivoted off lows as we predicted, but has run into resistance at the highs of the range at $20.7K. We have multiple red triangles on the KRI confirming resistance. The Kovach OBV has edged up, but does indicate any significant momentum that could break through to higher levels. If we are able to then $22.4K is the next target. It is much more likely that we will retrace the range back to support at $18.6K. Mean reversion trading has been the best tactic for trading Bitcoin for over a month now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
8