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Kovach

Oil Digs into the Lower $90'sOil dipped down further into the $90's, with a wick touching $92.03, as we have noted in these reports as the next level of support. We do appear to be pivoting nicely back to $95.24, but are bounded by $96.88. The Kovach OBV appears bearish, but does seem to have bottomed out, suggesting potentially that oil has reached a floor. If so, we expect it to shoot back up to the $100's. If not, we could retest $92.03. The next level after that is $90.06, which is our last technical level at the base of the $90 handle, before we dig into the $80's.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Stocks Continue to RangeStocks have found support off lows after the selloff yesterday. Nearly double digit CPI did not fare well for stocks, with some market participants pricing in a 100 bps rate hike at the FOMC later this month. We at pivoted at 3714 after breaking lows at 3739. Currently, it appears that we are making a run back to the midpoint of the range but are struggling with resistance at 3810. If we are able to punch through this resistance, then we could make a run for the highs of the range at 3909. Othwerise, we expect 3714 to provide support, then 3694 if it caves.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Gold Breaks Through to the $1600's!Gold has continued to edge down, and as we mentioned here all week, we have found support in the low $1700 handle, finally breaking through briefly to the $1600's. We tested $1692 with a wick, but a green triangle on the KRI promptly signalled support. Since then, we have equilibrated around $1700. The Kovach OBV has been bearish all week, and we have not even gotten a slight relief rally. If we do see one, we should have resistance around $1721 or $1728.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Finds Support at $1KEthereum saw good support from our level at $1017, and has subsequently tested $1100. We did not see much of a pivot from lower levels, and are meandering around $1100 at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV has slumped and is remaining at or around lows, suggesting we have very little momentum coming through. We will need more volume to come through if we intend to test the highs of the range again. Again, $1235 is our next target if momentum comes through, and a likely ceiling. A mean reversion strategy has proven to be the best strategy for at least a month.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Holds the $19KsBitcoin got good support from lower levels in the $19Ks, finding support just above our level at $18.6K. We have since retraced back near $20K, but are still holding the $19K's. The Kovach OBV has drifted back up, albeit very gradually. Volatility is consolidating which could suggest a breakout is near. If so, we must first clear $20.7K, which is the first barrier before $22.4K which is a likely ceiling. If we selloff, we should continue to see support from $18.6K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Inflation Weighs on StocksAs anticipated yesterday, inflation data came in very close to double digits, which rocked stocks. Traders are now pricing in the potentiality of a 100 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July , the largest increase since the 1990's . This has weighed on stocks which have tested the lower bounds of the range. So far we are seeing good support from around 3737, with confirmation from a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has slumped over with the selloff, but we do appear to have bottomed for now with current levels of support. If we selloff further, we could test lows at 3645. If we pivot from here, we could retest the highs of the range at 3909 or 3937.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Tests the Lower Bound of the RangeEthereum has continued to sell off, but is nearing the lower bound of the range at $1017. We are seeing strong support confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has formed a rounding bottom, which does suggest we may be bottoming out for now at $1017. If so, an upswing could bring us back to the $1100's, with $1235 a likely ceiling and upper bound of the current range. If we do sell off further, then we should see support in the $900's, but $1017 should be a floor for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
DXY Retraces from Highs, Awaits CPIThe DXY has retraced from 108.50, which was our exact profit target, and one that we have been very vocal about. We have hit that target with suprising ease, however a red triangle on the KRI has confirmed resistance there, and we have subsequently retraced, but are still holding the 108's with ease. The DXY is clearly awaiting the US CPI print, and expectations are for another wild figure, potentially nearing 10% as with the last figure and the most recent CPI reading out of Europe. If we rally yet again, 109.86 is the next target. If we retrace, we will have support from 107.20.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
1
🚨 Oil Tests the $90's; Read More for our Trading Idea 🚨Oil caved through support at the base of the $100's, making its way down to $95.24. We expected this value to hold as a floor price, as discussed yesterday, and we just barely broke through, with a low just above our level at $92.03. We immediately equilibrated back to $95.24, and are currently testing the next level above at $96.88. A red triangle on the KRI confirms resistance here. We appear to be forming a small inverse head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a strong possibility that we will correct back to the $100's. A long position here in futures, or oil related stocks such as XOM or ETF's may be profitable. A stop loss at $95.24 with a profit target set conservatively at $100 may provide a 2:1 return on risk.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Level Off; Await CPIThe S&P 500 has continued to retrace, leveling off around 3810. We are seeing good support here confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has flatlined, suggesting we need more momentum to come through before anything exciting happens. We will need to wait for CPI to be released at 8:30 AM EST. As we discussed yesterday, the markets are awaiting this data point, and will likely be quiet until then across all asset classes. All eyes are on this print, as we neared double digits last time, and recent European CPI had a similar reading. If we are able to rally, then 3937 is a likely ceiling. If we selloff further, then 3737 should be considered a floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Tests Relative LowsLitecoin has broken through support at the base of the $50 handle, to test lower levels in the vacuum zone down to $45.48. We are about midway between this level and $50.64, hovering around $47.49 at the time of this writing, which is a relative low from earlier this month. If we test lower, anticipate $45.48 to hold, but if not, there is another vacuum zone down to lows at $39.05. If we rally, then the low $50's are a reasonable target, where we expect strong resistance.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Stocks and USD Hit BitcoinA strong US dollar and slumping stock market have impacted Bitcoin, which sold off from the $20K's, giving up that handle and dipping into the $19K's again. We are seeing some meager support confirmed by green triangles on the KRI, as the Kovach OBV slumps with the selloff. We anticipate the range to hold between $18.6K and $20.7K, with $17.6K a likely floor. Watch for the price to continue to drift to $18.6K, and play the range. A mean reversion strategy off of this range is likely the most profitable right now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
DXY Soars, Euro at ParityThe US dollar has soared once again, likely off expectations for tomorrow's CPI print. Inflation is expected to surprise again , potentially in the double digits, as US consumers can surely attest. Inflation in Europe is nearing double digits as well. We hit our target of 108.50 with ease, after breaking through the previous target of 107.20 and crossing a full handle. We are seeing some resistance at this target, with multiple red triangles as confirmation. At the time of this writing, the Euro is officially at parity with the USD, at 1.00 exactly at the time of this writing. This could suggest that a retracement is due, but any significant action may come Wednesday after CPI figures are released. We should see support at 107.20. The next target is at 109.86.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Stocks Await Inflation DataStocks retraced as anticipate yesterday. We fell exactly to the intermediary level of support we suggested yesterday, at 3825. The Kovach OBV has topped and rounded off, suggesting the weak momentum we saw last week has dissipated for now. We won't expect to see any significant moves, as the markets are anticipating CPI data tomorrow. With all eyes being on inflation and the print expected to potentially read in the double digits as per the last reading and in Europe , this could spell another hit for stocks tomorrow. If we are able to rally, then 3937 is a likely ceiling. If we selloff further, then 3737 should be considered a floor.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Rejects the Mid $50'sLitecoin briefly spiked up in price falling just short of $55.84. We saw immediate resistance just below this level confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We have fallen back to support at $51.92, and $50.64. If these levels fail to provide support and we give up the $50's, then there is a vacuum zone below to $45.48, which is the next level of support. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, so we do not expect any significant rallies. watch for 'bull traps'. We can expect $55.84 to hold as a ceiling.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Bull Wedge In Ethereum??Ethereum has tested $1235 again, which has proven to be a hard upper bound once again. We have tested this level three times, unsuccessfully, within the span of a month. We are starting to see higher lows, consistently bound by $1235, suggesting that a bull wedge pattern is forming. If this is the case, we could be looking at a breakout soon to $1341. However, the Kovach OBV is rounding off and flattening, suggesting we will need more momentum to come through before we see such a breakout. If we retrace further, we should see support at $1017.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Finds Support Again at $20KBitcoin rallied, but yet again, this has proven to be a bull trap. We found immediate resistance at $22.4K, one of our technical levels. Resistance was confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, and we subsequently dumped back down to support at around $20K. Though we are seeing support at $20K for now, it looks quite weak, and the Kovach OBV is trending down. If support breaks, the next level of support is $18.6K. The next level after that is $17.6K, which is likely the floor for now. If we are able to pivot off current levels, we do not expect BTC to be able to break $22.4K any time soon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
USD Hits Decade Highs against the Yen, Euro Near ParityThe US dollar has remained incredibly strong, surging to 24 year highs against the Yen . The DXY has smashed through our target of 107.20, and has not retraced, holding the 107's with confidence. We are at decade level highs against major world currencies, effectively at parity with Euro , with EURUSD around 1.01 at the time of this writing. The top-heaviness of the dollar against other currencies suggests a retracement is due, but many sources have been saying that for a while, at this point. If we do retrace, then 106.13 and 105.78 should provide support. If we breakout again, then 108.50 is the next target.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
2