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Kovach

Ethereum Wavers in the $1K'sEthereum is edging up, but facing incredible resistance from $1150 or so, just under our level at $1235, confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has lifted notably, suggesting a bull divergence. We may be coiling up for a breakout, but we need momentum to follow through before we can break $1235 and hit the next target of $1341. If we don't see any momentum, then we will likely reject current levels finding support at $1017, or lower.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Struggles to Maintain the $20K'sBitcoin is encroaching upon the $20K's, after dipping to the low $17K's this weekend. We are seeing incredible resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI. We have made it to $21K albeit barely, but a burst of momentum is necessary to solidify the $20K's. If this comes through, watch $22.4K and $23.9K as the next targets. If we do not see momentum come through, there is a strong chance of a rejection, which could take us back to the $19K's or lower. Expect $17K to hold as a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Can Stocks Breakout??The S&P 500 has gradually trended up, suffering from low liquidity and thin trading from the holiday yesterday. We are encroaching upon the lows of the value area from last week. The small uptrend appears weak, and if we don't see momentum come through at the open, then we will surely dump to lower levels, with 3676, 3658 or 3645 likely targets. If we are able to break out then 3825 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is trending bullishly, but make sure momentum is confirmed at open before entering a long position.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
2
Litecoin Bounces Back!!Litecoin dumped with the rest of the crypto market over the weekend, however it did not make new relative lows, which is encouraging. We tested lows just above our level at $39.05, finding support at $41 or so. We have since rallied significantly, testing our level at $55.84, which was quite a rally. We are seeing good support from $52.04 after a brief pullback at those relative highs. LTC appears to be gaining strength and if we breakout, we could test the $60's again. If not, $45.48 should provide good support with $39.05 a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Regains the $1K's!!Ethereum dumped over the weekend into the $900's. We have been anticipating 3 digit ETH for a while now, but buyers took interest when ETH reached the upper $800's and subsequently we saw a nice rally to reestablish the $1K's. We are currently in the value area between $1017 and $1235. We are meeting resistance in the $1100's confirmed by multiple red triangles on the KRI. We should have good support in the low $1K's if momentum fails to come through, but we expect the low at $880 or so to hold as a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Rebounds from Lows!!Bitcoin plummeted over the weekend, bottoming out in the low $17K's. We have tested highs from the rally in 2017, which we anticipated would happen at some point in many of our reports here going back to November 2021. We have since equilibrated and found footing, with a rally taking us back to $20K. We are meeting resistance here confirmed by two red triangles on the KRI, but the price action appears to be consolidating, readying for a potential breakout. If we are able to break out, the next targets are $22.4K and $23.9K. If we break down, expect $17K to hold as a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Volatility in the DXYThe US dollar has been quite volatile lately. Last week, we dove from highs in the 105 handle, to just above our level at 103.24. Since then, we've rebounded, establishing value in the 104's. We met immediate resistance at 104.83, and the 105's were too ambitious for the DXY at the moment. We've since stabilized between 104.00 and 104.83. The upper bound of the price action is rounding off, so we may have topped out at our high at 105.78. We expect this to hold as a hard upper bound in the event of a breakout, but watch for support at 104.00 and 103.24 if things turn south.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Stocks Gearing Up for a Rally??Stocks appear to have bottomed for now, forming a bull wedge consolidation pattern at lows. The level 3624 appears to be a hard lower bound for now. We are due for a relief rally, as stocks are broadly oversold. If so, 3825 is a likely ceiling, as it is a relative high from last week. However, the value area between 3714 and 3792 seems a reasonable target if we are able to break out. If things turn south, then 3624 should provide support, but if not, we are clear to test the lows of the 3600 handle.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Ethereum SlumpsAs mentioned yesterday, Ethereum is ranging between $1017 and $1235. We appear to be forming a bear wedge pattern, and the Kovach OBV has turned south. We do appear to be finding strong support at $1K, but there is a lack of follow through from buyers, and typically this means another dump is in order. As the economy careens toward a recession, the likelihood of a crypto pump diminishes. If $1K caves, then we should see support around $900, but 3 digit ETH prices are concerning. If we are able to rally, $1235 should be a barrier, but after that, $1341 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
When Will Bitcoin Bottom??Bitcoin has slumped forming a bear wedge pattern at lows. The low of $20K seems to be providing good support for now, but the lack of buying interest is concerning. The Kovach OBV is picking up slightly, but we are seeing a lack of follow through in the price action. If we do cave further, we should have strong support from $19K, a major Fibonacci level on the daily charts. We expect this to be the bottom for BTC. If we do pick up, we must break $22K, then $23.9K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
DXY Sharply Sells Off, PivotsThe US dollar sharply retraced after topping out at our target at 105.78. We noted the rounding off in the price action as we formed the top at that level, suggesting a retracement or some ranging was due. The DXY has been incredibly bullish and a retracement was due. We've smashed through levels in the 104's, establishing the 103's. We have found support just above 103.24, and sharply pivoted back to the 104's, finding resistance at 104.53, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. Watch for continued resistance at 104.83, and support from 104.00 or 103.24.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
When Will Stocks Bottom?The S&P 500 dipped further, breaking through to the high 3600's, before a brief retracement attempted to reestablish the 3700's. At the time of this writing, we are currently wavering at 3700 exactly. The Kovach OBV is flattening out suggesting that we will not see much more action until momentum comes through. It is likely we will range at some point to establish value in this new price territory. We expect stocks to hold their ground between 3644 and 3737. As we mentioned yesterday, 3823 is a likely ceiling and 3624 the floor for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Meets ResistanceGold found support at 1815 and shot up to the mid 1850's. As we have mentioned in these reports multiple times, we are meeting resistance from a cluster of levels in the mid 1850's. In particular, 1851 and 1857 are providing formidable resistance. If we are able to break through then 1865 and 1876 are the next targets. The Kovach OBV is rounding off suggesting momentum has petered out and we are likely to establish value at lower levels or retrace back down to test 1836 or 1826. We expect 1815 to hold as a floor price for now.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Dead Cat Bounce for Bonds?Bonds have pressed higher following the Fed's 75bps rate hike. We have broken out of 115'29 back into the 116 handle, topping out at our level at 116'20. A red triangle on the KRI suggests that we are facing resistance here. We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge consolidation pattern, but the Kovach OBV has leveled off, so it is likely we will fall from here. Watch 115'29 or 115'03 for support. If we are able to break out further, the next target is 117'08.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Pump FadesEthereum pumped a bit from lows after the FOMC event yesterday lifted stocks in a relief rally. This was quickly faded and we met stiff resistance at $1235, which we anticipated yesterday. We are currently wavering in the area between $1235 and $1017, establishing value here for now. We expect $1K to hold for now, as it is a strong psychological and technical level, aligning with a strong Fibonacci level drawn on daily charts. This is the barrier between current prices and 3 digit ETH. If it does not hold, we should see support in the $900's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Rally FadesThe FOMC event did little for crypto. The Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the biggest hike since 1994, to combat the highest inflation we have seen in 40 years. The hike was largely priced in and stocks rallied a bit as a consequence, taking the crypto market with them. Bitcoin tested $22.4K, and swiftly rejected it, after red triangles on the KRI confirmed resistance there. We are seeing support from $20K, which we anticipate to hold as a floor price, but if not, $19K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
The FOMC Didn't Help StocksThe FOMC event did little to appease the stock market yesterday. To combat inflation at 40 year highs, the Fed raised interest rates by 75bps, the largest hike since 1994 . This was largely priced in and we saw a brief relief rally in equities, which was quickly faded, and we have since broken support to establish new relative lows. The level 3714 was our last technical level in the 3700 handle, and we have now broken into the 3600's, finding support at 3694. We are currently seeing a smaall pivot off of this level, and support is confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We appear to be running into resistance in the low 3700's, but if we can sustain momentum, then 3823 is a likely ceiling. If we sell off further, 3624 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Rejects ResistanceLitecoin made an attempt at higher levels, testing $45.48 and rejecting it swiftly. A red triangle on the KRI confirmed strong resistance at this level. We are currently establishing value in the vacuum zone between $45.48 and $39.05. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish, and if we do see a rally it will likely be just a technical retracement. The crypto market is severely oversold, but it does not appear that there will be any respite for us in the near future.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
3 Digit Ethereum?? 😱Ethereum appeared to be forming a consolidation pattern around $1235, and was looking like it was thinking about breaking out. However, we sold off further, and broke down to $1017, where we finally saw support. We do appear to be finding a small pivot at this level, but we have a surprising lack of follow through and volume, even at these prices. It seems inevitable we will dump further, and establish 3 digit prices for ETH. If we do find some momentum, watch $1235 for resistance.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1