Get started

Kovach

Will Stocks Breakout Soon??Volatility in stocks has continued to consolidate, and we are broadly forming a pennant pattern. We are seeing consistently lower higs, starting from 4214, which is the level we must break before attempting higher levels. The neckline of our failed inverse head and shoulders pattern at 4068, seems to be providing good support, and lows have recently tended just above this level. The Kovach OBV is still fairly flat, so we will need a lot more momentum to properly break out. We must break through 4214 before we can consider higher levels and hit our next target of 4306. If 4068 fails to provide support then 4009 is our next level of support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Oil Hits Our Target!! 🥳 What's Next?? 🚀Oil has broken out from the bull wedge it was forming all this week. We have broken past the upper bound at $120 and have hit our target at $122.95 to the tick. We met immediate resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI before retracing a bit, but the Kovach OBV seems strong so we do not expect much in the way of a retracement. If we do, $116 should provide support. It is likely we will see some consolidation here, but if we are able to break out from this high at $122.95, our next target is $126.50.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Bull Wedge in OilOil is tending to highs, forming a bull wedge pattern. The Kovach OBV has slumped a bit, suggesting a slight bear divergence. We are facing some resistance at $120, the upper bound of the wedge pattern. If we break out, we are set to hit $122, relative highs, and are clear to press higher after that. If we do retrace, then $116 should provide support, then there is a vacuum zone down to $113. While oil may continue the range between $116 and $120 for now, there is nothing fundamentally that leads us to believe we can expect lower prices any time soon.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Narrow Range for LitecoinLitecoin is still ranging maintaining the behavior it has held for almost a month now. We keep testing the low $60's, and we have added $61.75 as a new technical level which seems to be the lower bound of the range. Volatility has consolidated immensely, with $66.94 a hard upper bound to the range. The Kovach OBV is flat, so we will need more momentum to come through before it breaks the range either way. We should consider $55.84 a floor price for now, in case LTC wants to test lower levels.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Lower Highs in Ethereum 😧Ethereum has tested the lows of the $1700's once again, with a small pivot taking us $1872 where we met immediate resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. We are seeing progressively lower highs, from the $2100's down to the $1800's. Ethereum seems more and more comfortable testing the $1700's which several months back would be considered laughable. The fact that we are getting increasingly more comfortable at lows, suggests that we may break down further beofore buying interest reignites. We should see support at $1695, but if that fails, we are clear to test the lows of the $1600 handle or worse. The Kovach OBV is starting to pick up a bit suggesting a slight bull divergence, but we won't be convinced until we can clear and hold at least $2K.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
How Long Will Bitcoin Range??Bitcoin has been maintaining the range, bouncing back and forth between $28.8K and $32K or so. Bulls seem to get hopeful every time there is a small rally, but we have not seen any follow through for almost a month. The level $32.3K remains a hard upper bound, and our most recent rally fell short of even that. There is a red triangle on the KRI just below this level around $32.0K, and an immediate rejection followed. We are currently hovering at support at $30K or so, and if the range continues we are likely to test $28.8K or $27.9K again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
S&P 500 Consolidates the Range SlightlyThe S&P 500 has continued the range between 4068 and 4214 or so. The upper bound of this range seems to be waning, with lower highs possibly suggesting we may be forming a bear wedge or flag. Either way, volatility does seem to be consolidating slightly, which in the long run portends a breakout. The Kovach OBV is drifting up, which may signify a bull divergence, potentially giving bulls some hope. Keep in mind there is a vacuum zone below 4068, which is the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern that failed early May. If we break this, we are clear to test the lows of the 4000 handle again.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Pulls BackLitecoin has retraced back to the lows of the $60 handle, exactly as we mentioned yesterday. We were sure that $66.94 would be a hard upper bound and warned readers to that effect. Sure enough, LTC swiftly sold off from this level to the aforementioned support. We do appear to have strong support at $61.80 or so, with several green triangles on the KRI attesting to that. The Kovach OBV has basically flatlined, suggesting that we are likely to continue ranging.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Tests LowsEthereum has sold off from the low $1900's to support in the low $1700's. The fact that it could not even test the $2K's again is a testament to its weakness. We saw a nice rally at the end of the weekend, which got swiftly smacked down to support at $1717, where we are currently wavering. There is an obvious lack of buying interest at these lows, suggesting we will need to wait for another dump or a serious rally in stocks to see any bids. The Kovach OBV is has flatlined, so anticipate ranging to continue with strong support from the $1700's and resistance in the $1900's.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
3
Bitcoin Rejects 'Bull Trap'The Bitcoin rally turned out to be a fakeout, as we stressed here in these reports. Hopefully, no reader got caught in the 'bull trap' as we've done our best to warn you. This range has continued and there is nothing to indicate a proper bull rally in crypto on the horizon. Until then its range trading, unless a serious bid comes through in stocks, perhaps. We've given up $30K again, immediately seeking comfort in the $29K's. We are hovering just above our level at $28.8K, with $27.9K sure to hold just below that if needed. The $30K's remain a barrier with $30.2K and $31K likely targets if we do catch a rally, with $32.3K a hard upper bound.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
DXY Holding the RangeThe US dollar has rallied a bit, with the DXY crossing the range to test 102.86 again. We have highlighted this level as auspicious and a likely target and area of resistance. In fact, we predicted that the DXY would establish value in the area between 101.70 and 102.86. This appears to be what we are seeing as the DXY takes a breather from the epic rally that took us to 104 just a few weeks back. We anticipate the range to hold but if not, 101.39, and 100.98 are the next targets below 101.70.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Oil Steadfast Near HighsOil remains at highs, after curbs on China Covid lockdowns have eased . Supply remains tight as OPEC is reluctant to increase oil production. Although they have agreed to boost production, which should help buffer skyrocketing costs per barrel, Saudi Arabian oil prices have continued to increase . We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge or triangle forming at highs which suggests that we may be mounting for another breakout. This would surely meet our next target of $122, and likely establish new relative highs for oil. If we retrace, we should find support at $116, then $113, and $111.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Litecoin DriftingLitecoin has seen a small pivot with the rest of the crypto market following a small rally in Bitcoin. We were able to pivot off of support in the lower $60 handle, but found immediate resistance at $64.37, then $66.94 which is a hard upper bound. We have cited these levels numerous times in the reports, and they continue to hold. It is unlikely there will be much follow through in this rally but if so, $73.62 is the next target. If we retrace, then expect support at $60, then there is a vacuum zone to lows at $55.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Still Can't Test $2K ☹Ethereum found support at lower levels, pivoting from teh $1700's to $1900 at the time of this writing. The rally is encumbered by resistance as confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We are unable to break past $1906, and it is unlikely there is enough gas in the tank to the make an attempt at $2000. But if so, $2K is likely to be a hard upper bound. We are highly likely to reject current levels. If so, we will likely find support back in the $1700's. If we are somehow able to continue the rally, then $2025 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
3
Small Rally in Bitcoin 🥱A small rally in Bitcoin has gotten traders hopeful, however we feel this is nothing to write home about. We have not even been able to test the relative high at $32.3K. We have barely cleared $31.0K, before meeting strong resistance confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. If we do not see significant momentum follow through, then we are sure to test lower levels at $30.2K, then $28.8K or even $27.9K. If we are able to break through $32K then our next target is $34K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
No Love at the PumpsOil has picked up, testing relative highs. We seem to be having trouble reestablishing the $120's, with $119 being the upper bound for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but does not seem sufficient to indicate a significant rally to hit relative highs at $122. In fact, we are looking a bit top heavy so anticipate a retracement back to support at $116, $113, or $111. Any retracement should be considered purely technical and we have no reason to believe that oil will give up the $100's any time soon. Our next target is $122 if momentum reignites.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Oil ReboundsOil has pivoted from $111, smashing through $113, and hitting our target of $116. We are showing definite signs of strength as there really are not any fundamental factors that could indicate otherwise, however we do seem to be having issues reclaiming the high at $122. If we are able to break past $116 solidly, this is our next target. Otherwise expect support from $113, $111, and $108. The Kovach OBV has been somewhat oscillatory, so we anticipate levels to hold and the price action to range at current levels.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Gold Rejects HighsGold broke through our upper bound at 1865. We had noted the strong technical resistance at this level, confirmed by multiple red triangles over the latter half of May. But as predicted, gold hit our profit target of 1876. We are seeing immediate resistance here, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV spiked up hard with the rally, but has immediately slumped over, suggesting that we may reject 1876 or range between this level and 1865. If we are able to break out further, there is a vacuum zone to 1895.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Stocks Test Relative HighsStocks caught a strong pivot off of our relative low. The relative low of 4068 is significant because it coincides with the neckline of the failed inverse Head and Shoulders pattern from last week. We saw strong support from this level as confirmed by a double bottom with two green triangles on the KRI. We are not quite ready to call a bottom for stocks and a subsequent bull rally, but the fact that 4068 is holding is encouraging. We noted yesterday that our target for stocks was 4219, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling for now. Sure enough, stocks are testing highs, falling just shy of our target at 4188. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but not enough to suggest there is much more in the tank. But if we are able to break 4219, then 4306 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy