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Kovach

Gold Meets Resistance in the Mid $1800'sGold has found support exactly at $1836, one of our levels. We noted in previous reports that gold should find support at $1836 or $1826. From here we saw a pivot back to relative highs in the mid $1800's. Recall that we have a dense cluster of levels in the mid $1800's at $1857, $1857 and $1865. These align with relative lows from early May, and are currently acting as a barrier to higher prices. The Kovach OBV is tapering up slightly, but we will need more momentum to hit $1876, our next target. If we reject current levels, $1836 and $1826 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bonds Test Higher LevelsBonds have edged up higher, with ZN hitting our target of 121'00. This is a strong psychological and technical level. We are seeing a bit of a divergence between the price action and the Kovach OBV so unless more momentum comes thorugh, anticipate a dip or some ranging between 120'14 and 121'00. If we dip further, 119'23 should provide support. If we are able to break out further, then we have a fairly wide vacuum zone to the next level and target at 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Testing LowsLitecoin has broken down from our support level at $66.94, but has found immediate support below at $64.37, which we have added as a new technical level as LTC has tested it a few times during the two week malaise in crypto. The Kovach OBV has taken a dip downwards and is gradually slumping as the price action in Litecoin is broadly rounding off (illustrated by the curved upper bound we have added on the chart). This suggests the willigness to test lower levels and if $64.37 does not hold, then there is a vacuum zone to $55.84. If we can pivot from current levels, then $73.62 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Smashes Through Lower LevelsEthereum sold off with the rest of the crypto market, giving the $1900's entirely and dipping in to the $1800's. We are currently finding good support from $1821, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is largely flat, but has dipped slightly with the selloff. This suggests that we may not have enough bear momentum to break lower, but if so, we are clear to test lows around $1700 once again. If support pulls through, then we may reclaim the $1900's, and perhaps even make a run for $2K again. A hard upper bound can be expected at $2143.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Tests Lower LevelsBitcoin faced an unfortunate selloff to the lower bound of the range it has been holding. We faced a sharp selloff from just below $30K back down to $28.8K. We anticipate further support from $27.9K if needed, but after that there is a vacuum zone down to $25K, the low of the selloff on the 12th. If we find support here, Bitcoin has been struggling with regaining $30K, and we expect this to continue until we see more momentum come through. But we have been holding this narrow range of less than $4K for over two weeks now. If we are able to break out, then $31K seems to be a hard upper bound for now, with $34K an absolute ceiling.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Tepidly Pull HigherStocks have drifted upwards, testing the upper bound at 3978. This is roughly the midpoint of the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern that we have been referencing the past few reports. Recall that such a failure in this pattern is a bearish sign for stocks, and what we are witnessing is to be expected. The S&P 500 has been in the doldrums and can barely muster the strength to test the midpoint of the pattern, let alone the neckline of the inverse H&S at 4068, which will continue to be a barrier even if we can muster a rally. On the downside, 3825 should remain a lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Maintains Narrow RangeLitecoin is continuing the range it's held for about two weeks, stabilizing between $66.94 and $76.62. The lack of buying interest suggests we need another dump before buyers are enticed and $55.84 is a likely target if so. If we are somehow able to break out then $77.39 should provide immediate resistance. After that, there is a vacuum zone to $85.08, which should be considered a ceiling. Keep an eye on Bitcoin, stocks and other risk on assets for ideas on where this will go.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Still RangingEthereum has been maintaining a narrow range between $1906 and $2143 for just about two straight weeks. The Kovach OBV is still pretty flat, dipping only recently at the most recent selloff to lower levels. There is a conspicuous lack of buying interest in crypto, and we fear we may test lower levels again, with $1700 a likely lower bound for now. This was the low of the selloff on the 12th. If momentum renews, then $2232 and $2324 should provide resistance, with the $2400's a likely ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Maintains the RangeBitcoin is continuing the narrow range we have identified over a week ago. We are bounded between $28.8K and $31.0K, hovering somewhere in between, just below $30K at the time of this writing. The crypto market got slammed earlier this month, with a selloff on the 11th and 12th bringing us down to an eye-watering $25K. We anticipate further support here should the market selloff further, which is a distinct possibility due to the fact that we are seeing very little buying interest and thin liquidity. We still consider these levels 'bargain' prices in the long term but the markets may not pick up until we test even lower levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
The DXY Pivots From Our Level!!The DXY has found support exactly at the level we anticipated, 101.70. This followed from a dramatic technical retracement from the 104's, through 102.86. From there we fell through a large vacuum zone, finally finding support at 101.70, our exact level established as a target back in April. Support is confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI, and we are currently seeing a nice pivot. We still have a way to go before the next target at 102.86, and should see support again at 101.39 and 100.98, if current levels don't hold.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Economic Outlook on OilOil has been ranging in between $108 and $113, with consistent resistance at $111, which we have added as a new technical level. The value area has consolidated immensely, which suggests that we may be preparing for a breakout. There is no fundamental reason yet why we should see significantly lower oil prices, though China's renewed Covid lock downs weigh on demand. We anticipate strong support from $108 and $106, with $100 an absolute floor. If we can break past $113, our next target is $116.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
S&P 500 Unable to Clear 4000Stocks have been wavering at lower levels and just can't seem to break 3978. This is a technical level, about midway through our inverse head and shoulders pattern. This lackluster behavior is to be expected as the break down from the inverse H&S pattern is a very bearish sign, and portends strong resistance if we do try to inch back up and test highs. The neckline at 4068 will be an incredibly difficult barrier, as we are clearly seeing. We should see support from around the level corresponding to the 'head' in the low 3800's. If not, we are clear to test the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Still StrugglingLitecoin has maintained a narrow range between $66.94 and $73.62. We did appear to be seeing a bull wedge forming, but momentum quickly dropped off as the rest of the crypto market stagnated. The lack of buying interest suggests we need another dump before buyers are enticed and $55.84 is a likely target if so. If we are somehow able to break out then $77.39 should provide immediate resistance. After that, there is a vacuum zone to $85.08, which should be considered a ceiling.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Struggles to Regain $2KEthereum has held a narrow range between $1906 and $2143. The Kovach OBV has remined pretty flat, with a dip recently at the most recent selloff to lower levels. The narrow range usually precedes a breakout either way. There is a conspicuous lack of buying interest in crypto, and we fear we may test lower levels again, with $1700 a likely lower bound for now. This was the low of the selloff on the 12th. If we encounter buying momentum, then $2232 and $2324 should provide resistance, with the $2400's a likely ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Maintains a Narrow Range 🥱Bitcoin has ranged between $28.8K and $31.0K for the latter half of this month. We have continued this narrow range since the selloff on the 12th, and are not seeing much momentum, or buying interest, especially considering these are 'fire sale' levels with respect to last month's prices. Though we could get a lift if risk on assets like stocks find momentum, these aren't showing much hope either. A further selloff could take us back to $25K, but after that, $20K should seem reasonable. We have a strong Fibonacci level at $19K which we feel is a floor for BTC. If we do find enough momentum to breakout, $32.3K should provide resistance, with the $34K's a likely ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
The DXY Finds Support at our Exact Level!!The DXY has tumbled through the vacuum zone from 102.86 to support at our exact level at 101.70. We called this out to the tick in yesterday's report. We should see good support here, and this appears to be the case as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. We still feel that the DXY is in bull mode, but we were due for a nice technical correction, as ranging near highs was starting to look ominous. If we do find support here, we have a wide vacuum zone to traverse before the next target at 102.86. If support fails, 101.39 and 100.98 should provide further support.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
1
Stocks Still WobblyStocks have made an attempt to recover from Friday's selloff, but we have met strong resistance at 3978, about midway through the failed inverse head and shoulders pattern. We noted that this is a very ominous sign for stocks and in the past, from which it will be difficult to recover. It also suggests that 4068 (the necline of the inverse H&S) will be a very tough level to break, and currently, the S&P 500 does not seem to have the momentum to even test this. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish, suggesting we are due for a relief rally. However if the selloff continues, expect support at 3810 again.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Faces Strong ResistanceLitecoin is gradually trending up to the upper bound of the range at $73.62. We are holding the range between this and $66.94, as the crypto market has remained in a slump for the past ten days. We are seeing very little momentum come through and the Kovach OBV has rounded off, flattening out completely. We will need more momentum to come through into crypto in general before we expect to see a move in Litecoin or anything else. We are seeing incredible resistance from $73.62, with multiple red triangles on the KRI. But if we can break through this, then $77.39 should provide immediate resistance. After that, there is a vacuum zone to $85.08.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Our Bitcoin OutlookBitcoin is wavering in the low $30K's after a slow and gradual uptrend from $28.8K. Dedicated readers would have been prepared to buy at this dip over the weekend, as we have identified support here at $28.8K and $27.9K. We have held the current range for ten days now, after the dip to $25K on May 12th. However, the lingering narrow range, with lack of buying interest is not a good sign. If we cannot make another run for higher levels, then another dip is likely. A rally would find immediate resistance at $31.0K then $32.3K, with an anticipated ceiling of $34K. From below we have $25K to support if current levels do not hold. Longer term, $20K is increasingly becoming a reality, with $19K as a major Fibonacci level on the daily.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Correction in the DXYThe DXY has collapsed as the Euro rallied off renewed hopes in growth . The Euro bounced off lows at about 103.50, as we were careening toward parity with the dollar. We see this as a temporary correction to the dollar rally, but also note that we have broken through some major support levels, including 102.86, which we anticipated would hold. We are currently in the vacuum zone between this level and 101.70. If the rally reignites, we must first break 102.86, then 103.24 and 104.00 are the next targets.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Recover from Lows?Stocks have recovered from Friday's selloff. Though we have fully retraced from that dip, we remain under 4000, and well below the neckline of that failed head and shoulders pattern discussed last week. The fact that we broke down from the inverse H&S is foreboding and that we broke lower than the head (relative low) of this pattern is even worse. The Kovach OBV is extremely sold off, so we may have some hopes of a relief rally. If so, 4068 will be a formidable barrier to the upside. We should find support again at 3810 if we sell off further, but the next support level after that is in the 3700's.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy