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Kovach

Litecoin Struggling with $100Litecoin still remains bounded by $101, and is currently hovering around $100. As we mentioned yesterday, we saw a nice pivot from $94.84, and show a clear bias for $100. We do appear to be seeing a bull wedge forming bounded by $101, but the Kovach OBV is looking pretty weak, and appears to be turning a bit bearish. We will need more momentum to break out from current levels. If so, $105 is the next target. If things turn south then $94.84 should provide support again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bull Wedge in Ethereum??Ethereum is still hovering under $3K, though it found good support from $2762. We are still struggling with $2852, where a red triangle on the KRI has confirmed resistance. We do appear to be seeing a small bull wedge forming but the Kovach OBV has flatlined, which suggests we need strong momentum to break through. If so, $2965 is the next level above, and we anticipate $3K to be a hard upper bound for now. If we break down further, $2762 is likely to hold, but watch the vacuum zone down to $2651.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Maintains a Narrow RangeBitcoin is ranging after findng support at $37.7K. This level held despite a strong selloff in stocks, however we did not see much of a buyback and are still bound by $40K above. Volatility has consolidated significantly, between $38.2K and $39.2K. The Kovach OBV has completely flatlined, suggesting that we will need some momentum to come through either way before BTC makes its next move. We are starting to look very oversold, so a relief rally is due, but we $40K will be a significant target to break. If so, we can expect further resistance around $42K. Though we expect $37.7K to hold, the next level below is $36.7K if we break down.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
New Lows for Stocks!! What's Next??As predicted yesterday, stocks dipped further, breaking support at 4122. We mentioned that this was a bad sign for stocks as there is a vacuum zone down to 4068. This is exactly the level the S&P 500 subsequently tested after breaking down. Luckily for our portfolios, we did see great support at 4068, but new lows is never a good sign. After testing 4068, we were then bought back up above 4144, but remain bounded by 4178. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish despite a small uptick from the pivot from 4068. It is reasonable to expect some ranging, but if the selloff continues we must break through support at 4068, then 4009 is the next target, and last technical level in the 4K's. If we are able to somehow breakout, we expect 4306 to be a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Breaks Down FurtherGold has broken through 1876 and smashed through several levels below, finally finding support at 1851. The selloff resumed after a brief pivot of 1876 took us back to test 1917, where resistance proved prohibitive. The selloff then continued and the Kovach OBV is registering extreme bearish conditions. Though we are seeing support at 1851 confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI, we are not seeing any sort of buy back just yet, which suggests we may press even lower. If so, there is a vacuum zone below to 1836. The Kovach OBV is very oversold at this point so watch for a relief rally which could take us back to 1876, if not higher.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Struggles to Regain $100Litecoin tested our exact level at $94.84. We have been calling out this level as a lower bound for LTC for the past few weeks, and it finally tested it over the weekend. We did see a nice pivot from this level, but are having difficulties reestablishing the $100 handle. Indeed, $101 remains a hard upper bound for now, and it will take significant momentum to break through, but if we can, then $105 is the next level to provide resistance, and is a likely upper bound for now. If we reject the $100's, then $94.84 should continue to provide support.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Rally Looking WeakEthereum found support from $2762, the exact level we identified Friday. We saw a brief bounce to test the next level above at $2852, but did not have the momentum to see a follow through. The Kovach OBV has been edging up, but momentum was insufficient to even test $3K again. If we do see a burst of momentum, then $3K will provide resistance and is a likely ceiling for now. If we selloff further, expect support at $2762 and $2651 if that does not hold.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Still WeakBitcoin got smacked back down to support at $37.7K, which held and we are currently seeing a brief bounce off this level to test $40K. We are seeing a red triangle on the KRI forming at $39.2K, the last level in the $30K's. The Kovach OBV is very flat, and the Chande is at highs, suggesting a retracement from this level back to $37.7K is highly likely unless we catch a strong bid, which perhaps might follow a rally in stocks if we see one today (which is also somewhat unlikely). Even in this case, we anticipate resistance at $40K, with $42K a ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks on the Precipice of a MELTDOWNThe S&P 500 has broken down from 4144, establishing new relative lows. Recall that 4144 provided good support and we appeared to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4306. However, this was swiftly rejected, which is a very bearish sign for stocks. We've also broken through the 'head' of the inverse H&S at 4144, but appear to be finding support at 4122, which is the last major level of support before a potential freefall lower. There is a vacuum zone below 4122 to 4068, then another one after that to 4009. At that point, we will be at the base of the 4K handle and free to test the high 3K's. If we are able to pivot from here, 4306 will provide formidable resistance.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Rejects Highs, Finds Support?Gold has rejected 1917 exactly as we anticipated. Recall that we predicted resistance here as this was the relative low of a range held from the end of March through the beginning of April. We've subsequently retraced the entire move from the pivot off 1876, but appear to be finding support at this level once again. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish once more. We should have further support from 1865 and 1857 if we break lower. From above 1917 will continue to provide resistance but if we break that level, we could reestablish the range discussed earlier.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Faces ResistanceLitecoin has been able to recover higher levels, but has fallen short of $105 exactly as we predicted yesterday. Dedicated readers were prepared for this, and hopefully took profits if they bought in the $90's, which we cited as having strong support. Indeed, we found support just above our level at $94.84, which we still anticipate as a likely floor if we sell off again. Otherwise, the range between $101 and $105 is likely to hold unless the crypto market pumps again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
1
$3K Still a Hurdle for EthereumEthereum has faced resistance on its slow trek up to test $3K again. We saw increased resistance from several red triangles on the KRI from $2852 to $2965. Our levels proved extremely reliable, and we have been voicing them all this week. Dedicated readers were prepared for that resistance, and our skepticism that Ethereum could break $3K just yet. It is likely that ETH will maintain the range between $2762 and $3K, unless crypto gets a good lift in general, from a rally in stocks for example.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Rejects $40K... Again 😒As mentioned yesterday, Bitcoin has met resistance just under $40K. We saw a brief pivot from $37.7K, which likely got bulls all hot and bothered, but the fervor quickly fizzled and was not able to sustain a recovery to the $40K's. The Kovach OBV picked up sharply with that rally, but has quickly leveled off. We have stabilized just above $39K, and are likely to remain in the range between $37.7K and $40K unless we see a nice buying wave come through. Keep your eyes on stocks, as the correlation between BTC and stocks seems to be increasing in reliability.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
DXY Retraces!! Will it hit our Next Target?? 📈🤔We mentioned yesterday that the DXY was due for a retracement and sure enough, we saw it. After blasting through multiple profit targets to the upside and spanning almost 6 full handles, we finally saw a bit of a pullback to support at 102.86. We are seeing support here confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, however. Our next profit target still stands at 104.83, but based on the current retracement, we have added an intermediary Fibonacci extension level at 104.53. Watch the vacuum zone below to 101.70.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Can the Oil Rally Sustain??As discussed yesterday, oil formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern (with a slanted neck line) and broke out to higher levels, hitting our exact profit target of $106, where we are currently meeting resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but $106 is likely to be a barrier for now. Anticipate oil to range between $101 and $106 for now. If it breaks higher, $113 should be a ceiling for now. If we reject the $100's as we did earlier this week, then $95.24 should be a floor price.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Face Resistance at our LevelAs we mentioned yesterday, stocks got good support from lower levels, but faced resistance at 4306. Recall that we highlighted this as the level to break for the S&P 500 to see higher levels. The KRI indicates that we are seeing strong resistance here. That being said, we could be in the midst of forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern with 4306 as the neckline. Watch for stocks to dip lower and find support above 4144, at 4214 in particular. If we are able to break out then 4364 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Gold PivotsWe mentioned yesterday that gold was starting to look oversold at 1876, and sure enough, we got a nice pivot back to the 1900's. We started to see support between 1876 and 1895 confirmed by green triangles forming all the way through this vacuum zone. This suggested that the massive selloff from 2000 was coming to a close and the pendulum was due to swing back. We subsequently blasted through resistance in the 1900's and are currently testing 1917, where we are meeting resistance. This level corresponds with relative lows from the value area established at the end of March and the beginning of April. We should see pretty strong resistance here but if we are able to break through, we will regain the price range between 1917 and 1956.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Attempting Recovery??Litecoin dipped into the $90's, where finally saw some buying interest. Though this was sufficient enough to take us back to the $100 handle, we were unable to break the next major technical level of $101. We are currently sitting just under that, with two red triangles on the KRI confirming resistance here. The Kovach momentum indicators look pretty weak, but we do appear to be forming a bull wedge under $101. If we are able to break through, then $105 is the next target. Otherwise, we expect $94.84 to hold as a floor.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Testing $40KBitcoin appears to be finding support at $37.7K and $38.2K. We are currently making a run for $40K, but this seems to be a barrier for now, as we identified in yesterday's report. We are seeing several red triangles on the KRI to suggest resistance. The Kovach momentum indicators suggesting that momentum is edging up, but it remains to be seen if it will be sufficient to break $40K. It seems to depend on what stocks do today. If there is another selloff, we expect $37.7K to hold as a floor. If we are able to break $40K, then we will surely face resistance around $42K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
No Stopping King Dollar 👑💸The US dollar is continuing its meteoric rise, smashing through our profit target of 102.86, and solidly solidifying the 103 handle. We are seeing some red triangles on the KRI suggesting we are running into resistance. However, we have yet to see a significant pullback, and it would be unwise to step in front of this freight train. The lack of a significant pullback makes it difficult to anticipate reasonanable profit targets. However, based on our Fibonacci extension levels, 104.83 is the next target.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Recover??The S&P 500 has gained support from lower levels, 4144 in particular. This seems to be a relative low for now, and we have called this level out multiple times here in these reports. We are currently seeing a bit of a pivot, after some volatility, however volume looks weak and the Kovach OBV remains unfazed by the bounce. Thus, we are skeptical of this small rally, but if it continues, 4306 is the level to break befoore considering higher levels. If the bear momentum continues, then 4144 should continue to provide support. If not, we expect 4122 to be a floor price. If this level breaks, we are likely to freefall.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy