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Kovach

Litecoin Smashes Through SupportLitecoin has topped out at $134 before sharply retracing to support at $120. We saw quite a bit of resistance near highs confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and we were very vocal about this, to warn bulls to ease off. Sure enough, we saw a sharp selloff soon after. The Kovach OBV has turned over sharply, confirming the selloff. If support at $120 does not hold, then $114 is our next target, then $109, then $105. It is doubtful we will see any significant momentum come through for now and $134 is likely to remain a ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Rejects Higher LevelsThough bulls were hopeful that Ethereum would be able to pull off higher levels in the $3K handle and eventually test the $4K's again, we sold off hard with the rest of the crypto market. We were holding a nice range between $3324 and $3473, with an apparent bull flag forming, however we simply could not sustain these levels and promptly dumped to $3200, the exact level we called out in these reports. We should have strong support from two technical levels around $3200 but if not, we could retest the base of the $3K handle, essentially retracing this entire move. It is doubtful momentum will pick up any time soon, as the Kovach OBV has slumped. But if it does, then we must break $3473 before we can consider our next target at $3563.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bearish Bitcoin "Bart Simpsons" AgainBitcoin has retraced in a classic "Bart Simpson" pattern after having difficulties at highs in the upper $40K handle. We saw a great deal of resistance at $48.2K, one stop away from the last level in the $40K's at $49.7K. We anticipated great resistance at this latter level, but it seemed we could not even muster the momentum to test these relative highs, and promptly rejected through the vacuum zone below, to support around the $45K-$46K area, which appeared to hold for a bit, before another selling wave brought us back to just above $43.8K, which was exactly what we said would happen yesterday in the event of a selloff. The Kovach OBV has curved over nicely confirming the bear momentum. This suggests we are unlikely to see another run for highs any time soon. If the selloff persists, we are likely to test the lows of the $40K's again, completely retracing the entire bull run.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
DXY Pivots Off Our Levels!!The DXY has pivoted from lows at 97.73, as per our analysis. We called out 97.73 as a support level and it held like a charm. We also anticipated the DXY to continue the range it has established between these lows and 99.40. We are currently roughly in the middle of this range at the time of this writing, meandering in the vacuum zone between 98.22 and 98.82. We are starting to see some indication that we are encountering resistance here as confirmed by three red triangles on the KRI, and potentially might be establishing another technical level. It could go either way at this point. Watch for support at 97.73 if we reject current levels. If momentum can resume watch for resistance at 98.82, then 99.40.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Three Reasons to Be Skeptical of Higher Oil Prices... For NowOil broke down lower off news that Biden will start to use US oil reserves to the tune of 1M barrels per day and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. This was enough to bring oil down from the $100 handle, albeit briefly. We found support just above our level at 96.88, about 100 ticks north at 97.78 before we saw a nice pivot back to the $100 handle. However, the Kovach OBV is still very bearish after this selloff, so we will need more momentum to come through if we want to solidify the $100's again. If we drop further, then 96.88, 95.24, then 92.03 are the next targets. It does appear that oil has priced in the news, so we are likely to stabilize and form a value area in the low $100's, with $106 a likely target if that is the case.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Will Stocks Resume their Rally?? 📈🚀Stocks have fallen further after their slight pullback from our target of 4632. We met steep resistance at this level, then drifted downwards a bit, finally taking a dive yesterday. We fell to 4545, one level above where we anticipated support at 4521. The price action does seem to be rounding off, suggesting 4632 might be a top for now. If so, then stocks should find further support at 4521, then 4462. The Kovach OBV seems oddly unaffected by the selloff. We will need to see more momentum come through in either direction before stocks make a definitive move. There is a chance that we see another wave of momentum come through. If that is the case, then 4632 is our barrier to higher levels. We will see if stocks are willing to resume the rally, or if they will correct further, either retracing to lower levels as discussed above, or form a sideways corrective pattern.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Gold Maintains the RangeGold has held the range between 1895 and 1956, that we discussed yesterday. At this time yesterday, we were roughly in the middle of the range, however since then we have started to edge up again. We are seeing notable resistance at 1956, as predicted due to the dense patch of technical levels above between 1956 and 1982. The Kovach OBV is starting to drift higher ever so gently, however the volume is still comparatively low. We will require much more momentum before we can break out either way. If we break down, there is a vacuum zone to 1876, then 1865. A breakout will face resistance from technical levels in the 1950's through the 1970's, but if we can clear these, 1999 is the next target.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Will the Bond Market Continue to Sell Off??Bonds have reached a relative high at 123'01 to the tick then promptly rejected this level. A red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance and we headed straight back down to through the 122 handle to finally find support at 121'28. We are currently seeing some support here, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. However the Kovach OBV has taken a steep dive south suggesting the bear rout is about to pick up again. If so, the next target is 121'00, then 120'14. If we are wrong, we must break through 123'01 before we can consider higher levels.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Can Litecoin Break Highs??Litecoin has made an attempt at $134, but we keep finding prohibitive resistance just below this level. We are seeing several red triangles on the KRI to confirm strong resistance every time Litecoin tests this level. The price action seems well confined between $124 and $134, which is understandable, after its rally from the low $100's. It is starting to look top-heavy and a retracement could take us to $120 or $114, though we must break through $124 first. If we break $134 then $141 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Pauses RallyBitcoin has continued its tight range, after stocks snapped a four day rally. The upper bound seems to be $48.2K, which is a barrier between current prices and $49.7K, our next target and last level before $50K. The rally in Bitcoin does seem to encountering a hard pause, and we will need significant momentum to break $50K again. This seems to hinge on what stocks decide to do. We could have enough in the tank for another attempt at $50K, but this should provide formidable resistance and we may see a significant retracement upon rejection. If we retrace, then we should see support in the $45K-$46K range, with $43.8K a likely floor for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
The US Dollar Finds Support At Our Level 😎The DXY has fallen to support at our level at 97.73, to the tick. It started to look as though the dollar would break this level due to increased confidence in a Ukraine ceasefire. However, we saw a double bottom form, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI, followed by a nice reversal which is currently testing 98.22. We are seeing resisatance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If momentum continues, then we could see the broad range contine with 98.82 the next target. A full retracement of the range would take us to 99.40. If things turn south must break 97.73 before considering lower levels. There is a dense patch of levels below to provide support including 97.62, 97.47, and 97.32.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Will We See Lower Oil Prices??Oil is hugging lows after Biden has announced that he will start to use US oil reserves and also considered adding more ethanol to gasoline to fight soaring costs. Crude promptly dropped from where it was meandering in the 106-113 range. We are still finding strong support at 101 and 100, which are strong technical and psychological levels. The Kovach OBV has turned bearish but has since flatlined. We will not be able to crack through these levels unless more momentum comes through. If it picks up, then 106 and 113 are the next targets which must be broken again before we can consider highs then our next target of 132.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Stocks Break 4 Day Winning StreakStocks are ranging just above 4580, the exact level we anticipated support, after breaking a four day winning streak. This comes after hitting our profit target at 4632. We have two red triangles on the KRI to confirm resistance here, but many green triangles from below to confirm support at 4580. We do not anticipate a further retracement, but if so, then 4521 is a likely floor for now. Our ultimate target before a significant retracement would be in the 4600's with 4649, 4668, and 4693 all likely candidates. The Kovach OBV has slumped over for now, reflecting a lack of momentum as stocks pause, so watch for momentum at open to confirm whether the rally will continue. If we see lackluster momentum, we could maintain the range between 4580 and 4632.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Struggles with $130Litecoin has continued to edge up, solidly breaking through the $120's into the low $130's. We have hit our profit target of $130, and have retraced a bit to test $124 again, but have found support just above this level, confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. We are finding resistance just above $130, but if we can break through, then $134 is the next target. If we retrace further, we should have good support at $124, then $120 after that if needed.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Holds the Mid $3K'sEthereum has held its ground in the mid $3K's. We are currently leveling off in the narrow band between $3324 and $3473. We could be in the beginnings of a sideways corrective pattern. The Kovach OBV is still strong, suggesting that we could see another breakout and hit our target of $3563, that we predicted yesterday. However, we are starting to look overbought, suggesting that a technical retracement may come into play soon. If so, anticipate support at $3200.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin to $50K??Bitcoin has held its ground around relative highs, maintaining a narrow band between $48.2K and $46.2K. The Kovach OBV is looking pretty strong, but has started to curve over, indicating that we will need another burst of momentum before considering higher levels. We do appear to be ready for a technical retracement, that could take us back to support at $45K. But if we catch another burst of momentum, we the next target is $49.7K, the final target before $50K. If stocks rally again, we could easily hit this target today.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Trading Ideas on the DXY SelloffThe DXY has slumped as the Euro has gained due to the fact that there are talks of Ukraine being offered 'neutrality'. This has impacted the DXY and invalidated our bull wedge pattern. We have tested lows at 97.89, and 97.73 where we have found support. These levels should hold and may be a great idea for a long trade, as one could consider a narrow stop below current levels and potentially set 98.22 and 98.82 as a potential profit target. We have a dense patch of levels below us to provide support including 97.62, and 97.47.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Stocks Hit our Profit Target, What's Next??Our reports yesterday were spot on. We called out the breakout from 4580 perfectly, and we hit our profit target of 4632. We are currently seeing some resistance here, as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. News that Ukraine may be offered neutrality may drive the markets higher. We feel this rally may still have legs, and should be able to clear some of levels above. In particular, we have 4649, 4668, and 4693. We could reach as high as 4729 before seeing a technical retracement. The Kovach OBV has been weak compared to the strength of the rally so this is a reasonable assertion. A retracement from current levels could take us back to support at 4440. This would be about a 61.8% retracement on the Fibonacci levels.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Bitcoin Resumes RallyBitcoin appears to be back to bull mode. We broke through significant highs first at $45K then at our next target of $47.4K. The Kovach OBV is very strong, indicative of a proper crytpo rally. It is not a coincidence that stocks are rallying as well, with crypto obeying the correlation. Currently, we are testing the $48K's, finding resistance at our level at $48.2K. If we are able to break through this the next level is at $49.7K. We should be anticipating a technical correction soon, with support at $45K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy