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Kovach

Stocks Rally as Global Woes EaseStocks appear to be back in raging bull mode as the market appears to have fully digested the Federal Reserve rate hike plans, and Ukrainian ceasefire talks may also be contributing to a cheerier outlook. We have hit 4580, which was our previous target, and a relative high that had given the S&P 500 issues in the past. We are on the cusp of a vacuum zone to 4632. We are seeing some resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, and that is anticipated with the significance of the level which we are currently testing. The Kovach OBV is pretty strong, so there is no reason not to expect another breakout today. But if not, 4521 should provide support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Breaks Through ResistanceLitecoin has pushed further, breaking our next profit target of $124. We are currently just above this level at $125 or so at the time of this writing. We appear to be considering the vacuum zone between $124 and the next major target of $130. The Kovach OBV is quite strong, lending credence to this rally, but it does appear to be looking oversold, suggesting a retracement may be near. If so, $114, or $109 should provide support, but $109 is a likely floor. If momentum continues, $130 is our next target and barrier to further levels in the mid $100's.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Testing Key LevelsEthereum has broken past $3042 which was a prohibitive barrier into higher levels in the $3K range. We are facing steep resistance from multiple red triangles on the KRI, but seem to be inching further, currently testing our next level and target from yesterday at $3148. We are encroaching on a significant psychological and technical level at $3200. This must be solidly broken before we can make our way to the mid $3K handle. If so, $3324 is our next target. If not, then we should see support from $3042 or $2965.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitconi Testing $45K!!Bitcoin has broken out past its former barrier of $43.1K as it makes its way further up the $45K handle. We are seeing resistance at every step of the way with this rally, with red triangles on the KRI at every technical level we have drawn. The momentum does seem to be weakening, with the Kovach OBV inching up slightly throughout this whole move. We are still skeptical of this rally entirely, but $45K seems to be the 'line in the sand' to higher prices. If we can break that, then our next major target is $47.4K, which is a significant step to $50K again. We are due for a technical retracement either way, which could take us back to $43.1K, $41K or $40K. We anticipate the $40K's to hold for now either way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
US Dollar Faces Resistance and Choppy TradingThe US dollar has seen choppy trading this week. We made a run for highs, but found steep resistance at 98.82. We are seeing progressively lower highs, with a consistent lower bound at 98.73 suggesting that we might be forming a bear wedge pattern on a larger scale. If so, we would anticipate the price to test 97.89 or 97.73 again soon. If we are wrong and the price breaks out, then 98.82 must be broken then highs at 99.40. After that, our next target is 99.82.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Oil Still StrongOil has hit our profit target of $116 to the tick, then retraced past our newly identified support level of $113. Currently, it is meandering in the wide vacuum zone between this upper bound and $106. We should see support from $106, but if not, there is no reason to believe that oil will give up the $100's any time soon. The level $116 seems to be providing steep resistance and this is the level we must break before considering higher levels. The Kovach OBV is lackluster despite the recent action, so it could go either way, but there is no fundamental reason to anticipate lower oil prices any time soon.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stock Breakout Near??Stocks have recovered from a retracement after testing 4521. The price action started to 'round off' and we suspected a technical retracement may be in store earlier this week. Our prediction came true and we found support at 4440 also as anticipated. Currently, we are testing relative highs again at 4521, but are encountering steep resistance from red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been inching up but has leveled off slightly as stocks struggle to break out further. We are at some serious resistance, so watch for signs of momentum at open. If not, we will likely reject current levels and head to support at 4440. If we do see a breakout, then 4580 is our next major target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Gold Facing Resistance as it Tries to Break OutGold has encroached upon upper levels from its range between 1895 and 1956. We are currently facing resistance from a cluster of levels in the 1950's and 1960's. This dense patch of levels will continue until the 1970's or so. The Kovach OBV has picked up, and if we can break through all these levels we should be clear to test the 1980's, with 1982 in particular a likely target. If we break down, the former lower bound of our range at 1895 should provide support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
Bonds Bear Rout Bottoming Out??Bonds have stabilized for now after a brief relief rally. We tested higher levels at 123'15 or so, after falling 7 handles from the 129's to the 122's in less than one month. The rally was short lived, and just a technical respite into the overall bear trend, exactly as we had predicted here. The price promptly rejected this level, as anticipated, and headed back down to lows. We found support just above the low at 122'10 and have been equilibrating thereabouts, between this level and 123'01. There is nothing to suggest any deviation from the bear rout, overall except perhaps for small relief rallies. If the bear momentum picks up again our next target is 121'28.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Ethereum Testing $3K Again!!Ethereum has gotten a lift from the crypto market and reestablished the $3K handle. We have found strong support from $2965, which held as we tested the vacuum zone below to $2852. We do appear to be meeting steep resistance from $3042, with several red triangles on the KRI at this level. However, volatility is consolidating so we could be preparing for another breakout. If so, $3148 is our next target. If we reject $3042, then we should see support from $2965 or $2852.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Tests $43K AgainBitcoin got support from the $41K's as we anticipated yesterday. We the lift seems to be coming off news that Terra has bought $125M worth of Bitcoin for its reserve. If we want to continue to see higher prices in crypto we will need more news like this. We are currently testing $43.1K again, but a red triangle on the KRI is providing resistance. We have tested this level again earlier this week, and are likely forming some kind of consolidation pattern here like a bull wedge or flag, as we gear up for a potential breakout. Our next target is $45K, which is the ultimate barrier that must be broken before we can consider higher levels. If we retrace again, watch for support in the $41K's or $40K's.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Bear Wedge Forming in the DXY??The DXY has edged up, however, we continuously are making lower highs. We are seeing multiple red triangles on the KRI at or near highs, suggesting that resistance is building. However, lows are consistent at 97.73-97.89, suggesting in the long term we may be forming a bear wedge pattern. If that is the case, we can expect the DXY to test these lows again. We are currently testing 98.82, which is a significant level. If we are wrong and we break out from here, consider 99.40 as our next target, which was March's high. This is the barrier that must be broken before we can consider new relative highs, with 99.82 the next target after that.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
Stocks Retrace as Oil JumpsStocks have retraced as we have called out yesterday. We were due for a technical retracement, and the fact that oil prices jumped provided a catalyst for this retracement. We have found nice support at 4440, a former price target, and expect this level to hold but if not, then we could test the 4300's, with a likely floor of 4350. Our next target remains 4580. The Kovach OBV has dipped slightly, but it still appears we are in a bull trend, so anticipate either some ranging today as we digest current prices, or another bull rally.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Showing Considerable StrengthLitecoin has broken out yet again, showing considerable strength with regard to the performance of the 'majors'. We have broken past $120, where we anticipated resistance. We then made a run for $124, and after hitting this target, retraced back to $120. The Kovach OBV is still strong however, suggesting this is a technical retracement. If so, $130 will be the next target if we can break $124. If we retrace past $120, expect support from $114.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Facing Resistance at $3KEthereum reached our target of $3K, only to face immediate resistance and give up the $3K's. We are seeing strong resistance at $3042 from two red triangles on the KRI, but are seeking support at the next level down at $2965. The Kovach OBV is still strong however, which could suggest this is just a retracement into the overall bull trend. If we retrace further, then $2852 is the next level of support, then $2762. We must break $3042, which seems to be a Herculean task at the moment, before considering upper levels. If so, our next target is $3148.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Retraces, will the Rally Continue??Bitcoin has hit our price target of $43.1K, but fell short of our expectations to contiune the rally. Although stocks are strong, their strength does not seem to be met by the newly established intermarket correlation with Bitcoin. Two red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance at $43.1K. There is strong support around $41K and we anticipate it to hold, but if not there is no reason we should expect to see any lower prices than $40K. The Kovach OBV has slumped, suggesting momentum has let up a bit. We are still hopeful of a bull rally to our next target of $45K, but are skeptical with the lack of momentum.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Every Day a New Low for Bonds!!Bonds keep falling as yields are rising globally. It seems that we have to redo our levels to predict yet another new low in ZN. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish and we have fallen 7 handles, from the 129's to 122's in the month of March. We are currently testing support at 122'10, but the bear rout shows no sign of stopping. It would be unwise to try to catch a knife here, although the probability of a relief rally increases with each rung down. Our next taget is 121'28. A relief rally could test 123'01 or 123'15.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Hits $120!!🚀🎉Litecoin has gotten a lift from the crypto rally, testing $120 at the time of this writing. This is a significant step for LTC which has been in the doldrums for some time. We were seeing prohibitive resistance from $114 for what felt like an eternity (in crypto time), but were finally able to break through on the 19th. Prices stabilized around $114, and it was a toss up as to whether we could sustain these levels. However another burst of momentum came through and we were able to hit $120 with ease. From here, Litecoin will have to maintain current levels before we can consider higher levels with $124 being the next target. If we retrace from here, then $114 should hold, otherwise $109 is tne next level of support below.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
5
Ethereum Hits $3K!! 🤑📈Ethereum has finally reached our target of $3K. We blasted through $2965, after crossing multiple levels in the upper $2K's which had provided prohibitive resistance in the past. The Kovach OBV is strong, as is the Chande, which suggests that a retracement may be near. We will see how ETH deals with $3042. This is a major level and reltive high from which we fell at the very beginning of March. If we do break out, $3148 is the next target, otherwise $2852 should hold.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Bull Bias in the DXY??The US dollar has climbed higher but is encountering resistance at 98.82, confirmed by multiple red triangles on the KRI. This suggests a retracement is highly likely especially because we are near a strong technical level at 98.82. We appear to be seeing this retracement right now, with a retracement. We should see support at 98.22 if we continue further. Overall, we seem to be holding the range between 97.73 and 99.40. If we seek highs again, we could test highs again at 99.40, which could indicate a bull wedge is forming and if so, 99.82 is our next target. If we retrace again, then support should hold at 97.73.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy