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Kovach

Bond Yields at Highest Levels Since 2019Bonds have edged out new lows as investors weigh deescalation of the war in Ukraine and increased expectations for a Fed rate hike . Yields in ZN, the 10 year treasury note, are the highest they've been since July 2019. We have sliced through multiple technical levels below, and have established new lows, yet again. We do appear to be seeing a brief pivot from lows at 124'19, but 125'07 is providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If we are able to continue the rally and break through resistance, then 125'17 and 126'00 are the next targets above. If we continue to sell off, then 124'06 is the next target below.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds on to the Low $100'sLitecoin has been bouncing around the low $100's between $101 and $105. We have seen strong support at $101 by a green triangle on the KRI, and but a red triangle is confirming resistance at $105. It has held this range for the past week or so. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, though it did dip slightly with the selloff. It is difficult to anticipate where it will go from here, but continuing to hold the range is highly likely. It is highly likely we will reject $105 and seek support at $101 again, but if not, there is a vacuum zone above to $114.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Clings to the Mid $2K'sEthereum has leveled off consistantly around $2595, which we have added as a new technical level. It held almost completely flat over the weekend, but tested a relative low at $2509, which we have also added as new technical level. We seem to be filling out the range between $2454 and $2651. From here, it appears we are seeing resistance at $2595, but if we are able to break out then $2651 is sure to provide resistance. From below, $2509 appears to be a low, but $2454 should be considered a floor for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
Bitcoin Still in the Doldrums 🥱Bitcoin has been in the doldrums all weekend. It has flatlined around $39.2K, which we have added as a new technical level. We are seeing resistance at this level currently, as confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. It has really shown a preference for the range we have called out many times in these reports: $38K to $40K. The only good news is that Elon Musk, crypto's self proclaimed cheerleader, has announced that he will not sell his crypto holdings . Bitcoin appeared to rally off this, after testing lows at $37.7K, which should be regarded as a floor for now. The Kovach OBV is pretty bearish, but if we do somehow gain steam, then we must break $40K before seeing higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Why We Are Still Not Hopeful of a Stock RallyThe S&P 500 has edged up but remains volatile. We made a brief run for relative highs at 4327, but that was swiftly rejected. We appear to have bottomed out at 4214, where we have found support. It appears that we are seeing a slight pivot from this level, but are facing resistance at 4245. Despite hopeful headlines for stocks to rally here in the West, Chinese stocks have tumbled in their worst day since 2008 over concerns about China's close relationship with Russia. We highly doubt we will see a significant rally today, but if we we do, we must break 4327, before we can hit higher levels. The next significant target after that would be 4408.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Jumps!! 🚀📈Litecoin has jumped off positive news about the Ukraine war. The news has lifted the crypto market as a whole, even though it was a minor comment that Putin made about " positive undertones " in talks with Ukraine. Litecoin has lifted from the low $100's to $105. We are currently testing this technical level which has provided fierce resistance lately. If we are able to break through then the next target is $114. If not, then the low $100's are sure to provide support for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Jumps from Putin's CommentsEthereum caught a lift with the rest of the crypto market off positive news in the Russia/Ukraine war. We found support at $2556, as we anticipated yesterday. The Kovach OBV still registers a bearish trend, though we do appear to be lifting at the moment, and we will see if this rally is for real or just noise. If we are seeing a genuine bid then $2651 must be broken, then the next target is $2762. The Kovach Chande has lifted significantly, giving us hope for the rally.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Ukraine Talks Lift BitcoinBitcoin bottomed out at $38K as we have been anticipating here in these reports. We discussed this yesterday and gave explicit levels where BTC would likely find support. News of potential easing on the Ukraine conflict has given the crypto market a nice lift and we are currently testing $40K again. The Kovach OBV has declined but is starting to lift with the news. If we continue to rally, then we will next meet resistance in the $41K's then $43.1K will be the next target. If we reject current levels, look to $38K to provide support again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Oil Retraces, but Finds SupportCrude has dropped to $106, but is holding strong at this level. News of the potential for peace in Ukraine has already lifted stocks this morning, and will put further pressure on oil which has already retraced from highs nearing our target at $132. The Kovach OBV has slid quite a bit, suggesting a bear divergence. We will see if the $100's hold as exuberance over the Russia/Ukraine war deliquesces into the oil market. Watch $101 and $100. If those do not hold, we have a vacuum zone down to $96.88. If we somehow catch a bid then $116 is the next target and we are likely to see resistance there.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
1
Stocks Breaking Out from Bull Wedge Pattern!! 🚀📈Stocks made a run for relative highs but still appear to be having trouble with relative highs at 4272, which was the exact level we called out yesterday. This and 4293 remain hard upper bounds for the S&P 500. At the time of this writing, we are seeing a small uptick, but these levels remain upper bounds in what appears to be a bull wedge pattern forming. The Kovach OBV is trending upwards suggesting a bull price divergence, and therefore we might anticipate a breakout to higher levels. This is a much anticipated breakout as stocks have been holding onto lower levels all week. We were eyeing 4144 and 4122 as these appear to be the barriers to lower levels around 4K. If we are able to solidly break out from the bull wedge pattern, we still have multiple levels of resistance in the but 4327 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Safe Haven Inflows Still Lifting Gold (For Now)Ukraine woes still weigh on global markets and although gold has retraced significantly, it is still hanging onto the high 1900's. Positive news is incoming as we compose this thread including Putin acknowledging "positive undertones" in Ukraine talks . We have given up the 2000's after touching highs at 2070. After finding support at 1982, we appear to be making a run for 2000 again, currently testing 1999 and hovering about 1995 or so at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is drifting downwards, suggesting a slight bear bias, but we have a lot of support levels below to buoy the price, including 1982, 1977, 1973, and 1964. It is doubtful we will slice through all of these, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1936. If we get a lift, then 2029, 2048, and 2070 are the next targets.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
1
Bonds Test LowsBonds have smashed through relative lows in the mid 126's to find support at 126'00 which appears to be a technical and psychological level. We have added this as a technical level on the chart. ZN has been on a clear decline falling 3 handles from the 129's to the base of the 126's. The Kovach OBV is on a steady decline, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting we may find support here, or at least that the selloff may ease up. If not, the next target is 125'17. We do appear to be severely oversold and if we see a technical retracement into the bear trend we must break 126'11, where we are currently meeting resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. After that, 126'19 and 126'28 are targets.
CBOT:ZN1!Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Clinging to $100 😨Litecoin showed signs of bullishness, catching a nice bid off the crypto rally, however this excitement soon faded, and we gave up higher levels and retraced back to comfort in the low $100's. We broke out of $105, but just barely. Resistance was met at $108 confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI, and the price immediately rounded off and retraced almost the entire move, cutting through $105 with ease. Currently, we are hovering around support at $101, but we are still looking pretty weak. The Kovach OBV has turned over completely, and the both Kovach momentum indicators are in strong bear territory, suggesting we may be oversold and the price may stabilize between $101 and $105. If not, there is a vacuum zone below to $94.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Slides 📉🐌Ethereum has rejected $2762 after exuberance faded off the rally in Bitcoin from the crypto Executive Order news. We retraced almost the entire rally, and sliced through $2651, the next level below. Finally, we found support just above $2556. The price action here still looks a bit shaky, so watch for support at the next level below at $2454. The price action is likely to range about these levels as ETH finds footing again. If we continue to crash, $2324 should be absolute lows for now. If we see a rally, $2762 should be considered a ceiling for now.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Two Reasons Why Bitcoin SlidBitcoin has retraced sharply from its rally to the $41K's in a classic Bart Simpson pattern. Recall that exuberance over the Executive Order on crypto regulations sparked a big rally, which soon faded. Support failed to hold as $211M worth of liquidations crushed bulls. We have completely given up the $40K's and have returned to safety in the previous value area between $38K and $40K. The Kovach OBV has dipped sharply registering the selloff. If we do rally again, $41K will be even harder to break as it was established as a relative high. We should continue to see support from $38.2K, $37.7K, and $36.7K, which is the likely floor for now, but watch the vacuum zone below that to $34.9K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Oil Slides off OPEC Production CooperationOil has retraced sharply off news that OPEC is planning to oblige the demands of the west and increase oil production . We are still holding onto the $100's, but dipped by double digit percentages down to 106, where we found support. Currently we are seeing a nice pivot back through 112, with the price currently in the vacuum zone between 112 and 116. Russia is consistently in the top 4 oil producing nations, so boycotting them will place further constraints on existing supply issues. Therefore, any selloff in oil is likely transitory. It is not likely we will give up the $100's any time soon and $101 is a likely floor for now. If momentum reignites, then $116 and $122 are the next targets before $132.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Exuberance Fading in StocksThe S&P saw a nice rally but the hope soon faded. We were able to break 4272, but rejected 4293. Bulls are encountering steep resistance at multiple levels and the momentum we saw just doesn't seem to be sustained. The Kovach OBV has edged up ever so slightly, but has quickly leveled off. We appear to be finding support at 4243, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI. However we must solidly break 4272, then 4327 in order to begin to establish a bull trend and consider higher levels again. We should see support at 4144, then 4122 which should be considered a floor price for now. In the event of an absolute melt down, if 4122 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to the low 4K's.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Regain $3K??Ethereum has tested lows at $2454, and pivoted with the momentum coming through in the crypto market. We have broken past the next technical level at $2651, and are currently testing $2762, where we appear to be meeting resistance. The Kovach OBV has pulled up notably, but the Chande has arched over, suggesting a top for now. If that is the case, then we should see support at $2651. The next target is $2852, then $2965. We must solidly break $3K before we can consider higher prices again.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Top Two Major Factors to Watch with BitcoinBitcoin caught a huge lift, after ranging between $38K and $40K. This perhaps was driven by news that Santander is launching loans backed by tokenized commodities such as grains and soy. This is a significant development for crypto, and is bigger than the "Bitcoin ETF", which is currently pegged to Bitcoin futures prices, not a basket of crypto holdings, at least in the US. It has held current prices despite possible risk from news that Biden is to sign an executive order studying current Federal crypto policies. We are currently testing $42K, but the Kovach OBV has turned up notably. If momentum continues then the next targets are $43.1K then $43.8K. If we retrace, we could reestablish the previous trading range between $38K and $40K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Oil Retraces But Fundamentals are Still BullishOil has topped out just below our profit target of 132. Subsequently, it retraced to the 120's, currently finding support at 120 exactly which might be a new technical level forming. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does appear to be arching over slightly. The US has committed to banning Russian oil imports, which will not ease the soaring price of oil, unless Biden can find alternative sources. It is likely we will feel out current levels, before testing highs again. We should have support from 116 then 110. The next target is 132.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy