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Kovach

Bitcoin Breaks $20K!Bitcoin rallied after the Case-Shiller Housing Price Index came in deeply negative, which suggests that the economy may be cooling and the Fed may taper interest rate hikes . Additionally, earnings from GM and Coca Cola suggest that high inflation might not be impacting the earnings of some major companies as the markets have feared. This contributed to the rally, which broke through our target of $19.5K and even $20K to finally reach our target of $20.7K, which we anticipated to hold as a ceiling. So far, our projection is confirmed, as we are seeing a red triangle on the KRI at this level. The Kovach OBV has risen sharply, but quickly tapered around this level suggesting we may be at a ceiling. If so, expect support from $20K then $19.5K. If not, the next target is $22.4K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
DXY CollapsesThe US dollar collapsed off of increased risk-on exhuberance after housing price data and earnings reports from Coca Cola and GM, which the markets interpreted as a possible sign of a Fed tapering. We have smashed through the lower bound of the range at 113.66, then 113.37, which we anticipated to hold as a lower bound. We traversed the entire vacuum zone, and fell to support at 110.20 and even tested 109.86 before a green triangle on the KRI confirmed support. It is likely we will equilibrate in this range and establish footing after such a large move. The lower 109's should provide support if we continue to tank. Otherwise, we must cross the vacuum zone again before hitting the next target of 113.37.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
2
Stocks Rally! Is this Just Exhuberance?The S&P 500 has rallied off increased expecatations of a Fed tapering after housing price data came in negative. Additionally, Coca-Cola and GM posted earnings results yesterday suggesting that there is hope for some companies feared to be hit by inflation. Be careful trading this, as the markets have been fooled before, and we will need to wait for forward guidance from Fed speakers before any rally is confirmed. The Kovach OBV is climbing steadily, and we have reached our target of 3849, with 3909 the next major level and next target. If we reject current levels, 3792 or 3758 could provide support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Attempt Hihger LevelsStocks have continued to edge higher, though they are looking quite weak. We were able to break past 3792, but the very next level at 3810 is providing significant resistance. The price action rounding off, and red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance. Additionally, the news sentiment remains bearish, so at some point we are likely to face a swift rejection of current levels. However, the Kovach OBV is still strong. If we are able to break out, then 3849 is a reasonable target with 3909 a likely ceiling. We should start to see some support at 3758 if we retrace.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin to $55?Litecoin broke out of the narrow range it had been holding for a few days, between $50.64 and $51.92. This narrow range suggested that a breakout was near and sure enough we were able to break out into the range above. We mentioned that $55.84 was an ambitious target and sure enough, we appear to be meeting resistance in the low $54's. Volume has been extremely thin with Litecoin for the past month, and we will need proper momentum to sustain the rally. If so, $55.84 is a target, but we are likely to face strong resistance here. In the more likely event that we retrace, then those levels mentioned in the low $50's should continue to provide support.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Gets A LiftEthereum broke out with the rest of the crypto market. Momentum has been surprisingly strong for Ethereum, and it's surpassed Bitcoin in the relative strength of this rally. We anticipated $1341 to provide resistance as it has been the upper bound of this range for over two weeks. We were able to test $1368, which we have added as a new technical level, before momentum petered out. Currently, we are finding support at $1341, and are likely to retrace to $1288, but if momentum can somehow pick up then $1368 is the next target then $1424.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Despite Volatility in the DXY, it Still Respects the RangeThe US dollar has been exhibiting dramatic volatility lately. We tested the highs of the range at 113.38, before a hard rejection smacked us back down to 111.66. Support failed there, and we subsequently tested the next level at 111.37. We received support at this level and have currently recovered the middle of the range. Dedicated readers have heard us state this range for a while now, and a mean reversion trading strategy would have been extremely profitable. We anticipate the range between 111.37 and 113.38 to hold. If we are able to break out we could test highs of 114.54.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Gold Respects Our Level 😎Gold spiked sharply higher after finding support at $1629. Recall that anticipated support at this level, since it is a relative low established at the end of September. We made it as high as $1670, before retracing a bit back to neighborhood of $1650. The Kovach OBV has spiked dramatically, suggesting there was strong momentum to this move, but it still just could be a short covering rally. The Kovach OBV has since leveled off, suggesting that $1670 may have been a top for now. If not, $1683 is the next target. We expect $1629 to continue to offer support.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
2
Stocks Face HeadwindsDespite plenty of negative sentiment in the news and a week packed with data, including the Fed's redbook and housing price indexes on Tuesday, GDP on Thursday and PCE on Friday. We hit a high of 3792. We tweeted on Sunday night that this small rally was likely to be short lived and sure enough we are seeing a pull back. The APAC markets are selling dramatically , as investors are worried about Asia's economic future. This is likely to bleed into the US markets as well. If so, we could see support at 3645 again. We expect resistance at 3792 to hold but if not, 3909 is the next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Holds the Range 🥱🥱Bitcoin as wavered and tapered down against the hopes of many perma-bulls. We are still caught in the range between $19.0K and $19.5K. Dedicated readers should be tiring of these numbers but should be banking off of the mean reversion trades we have seen come to fruition, right here in these reports, for the past month. Again, it is unlikely we will see any miraculous burst of momentum, but if we do, $20K is a hard ceiling for now. As a floor, $18.6K should provide further support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
US Dollar Rebounds!The US dollar has recovered once again, against strong news sentiment yesterday suggesting the DXY had topped off. We were able to recover the range and, at the time of this writing, are testing the upper bound near 111.38. We anticipate this to be a top and mean reversion trading is advised at this time. It will take sufficient momentum to break through but if we can, 114.54 is the next target (highs). It is more likely that we will reject 113.38 and revert to the mean and potentially test lows at 111.64. As a floor we should remember 113.37.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Major Earnings Weigh Heavy On StocksThe S&P 500 has taken an unfortunate turn as abysmal Snapchat profits have taken a turn for the worse and the stock has plummeted naerly 25%. This took down other social media stocks with it, some of which form a formidable component of the S&P 500. We were seeing support at our level at 3676, but the selling momentum has taking us down to 3645, where we are seeing some support. If the bear momentum continues, we could retrace the entire move back to 3584 or so. If we are able to pivot from here, look for a ceiling at 3758, and a likely intermediary target at 3714.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Pull Back After Tesla and FedAs predicted yesterday, stocks have met resistance at 3758. We were fairly certain this would be a top due to lack of momentum and the price action 'rounding off'. Also, the news isn't exactly cheery lately. The Fed's Bullard thinks we won't see inflation ease until next year, and Tesla's earnings have disappointed sending the stock tumbling 5%. The major indices all dipped, and exactly as we predicted, the level 3676 has provided support. If support does not hold, then we could retrace all the back to 3584. We are likely to hold the range between current levels and highs at 3758. If we can somehow break out, we are sure to hit resistance at 3792, which should be considered a ceiling for now.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Litecoin Holding the $50'sLitecoin has been able to hold the $50's, but is facing resistance at $51.92, as predicted yesterday. We were able to find support just above $50.64, holding the $50 handle. However, a lack of momentum prevented any follow through past $51.92. If we are able to break through this level then we will surely meet resistance at $55.84 but it is not likely that will happen any time soon. We anticipate $50.64 to hold as a lower bound, but if not the next level of support is at $45.48.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy