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Kovach

Bonds Soar off the Russia/Ukraine ConflictBonds have soared as risk off sentiment prevails as the Ukraine conflict intensifies. Russian forces are bearing down on Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine and civilian casualties are mounting. ZN has blasted off from highs at 127'08, through 127'22, and well into the 128 handle. We have cleared 128'01, the first level in the 128's, and have just broken through 128'10. With such a strong bull impulse, it is difficult not to anticipate a pullback or sideways currection at this point. We are likely to at least range at current levels, between 128'01 and 128'11, with a ceiling at 128'24. If not, expect a retracement to 127'22. Worst case, it is certainly possible that we will retrace the entire move to 127'08 (recall that gold did this just last week).
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Lifted from Low $100'sLitecoin has gained strength and edged up in the $100 handle. We have finally crossed $105, but are meeting resistance from $114, which has proven prohibitive for LTC for the latter half of February. A red triangle on the KRI confirms resistance. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but is starting to wane as we appear to be rejecting $114 again. If so, then $105 and $100 should provide support. If we are able to break through then $120 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Lifts, But $3K Still a BarrierEthereum has ripped with strong inflows into crypto. Bitcoin solidified $40K again, but Ethereum is struggling to regain $3K. We are currently meeting resistance from $2965, the last level in the $2K handle. The next level below at $2852 is now providing support. The Kovach OBV has curved upward, but has tapered, suggesting a possible inflection point for ETH. Our next target is $3042, the first level in the $3K handle. If current levels of support do not hold, watch $2762 and $2651 for further support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
Bitcoin Regains $40K's!! 📈🤑🥳Bitcoin has rocketed off of news about the Russian sanctions. We have blasted through resistance at $40K, which we anticipated would hold, and have clawed back to $43.8K, where we are meeting resistance. We are seeing support from below in a narrow band between $43.8K an the next level below at $43.1K. Watch the vacuum zone below to $41.9K. We should have strong support there, but if not, then $40K should provide support where it just recently provided prohibitive resistance. The Kovach OBV is strong, but has started to level off. If we can muster the strength for another breakout, then $45K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Supply Concerns Lift OilOil has blasted off from yesterday's levels where it gapped up to the mid 90's. We found support at 95.24, and smashed through the next level at 96.88. After that, we made run back to $100, but are facing some resistance before that. The world is rearing from Russian supply fears, as it is in the top five oil producing countries (number two in 2022 right after the US by some sources, see here and here ). There is little in the way of fundamental data to suggest lower oil prices. However, if do see a technical retracement, then 95.24 should hold, if not, there is a vacuum zone back to 92.03. Our next target is $100, then $101.46.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
2
Geopolitical Conflict Hits StocksStocks have begun to dip off of stepped up efforts with Russia to move in on Ukraine. Russian forces are close to the capital, Kyiv, and markets are reacting. We have strong safe haven inflows, as per bonds and gold, and the S&P 500 has just rejected a relative high at 4389. The Kovach OBV was increasing, but has curved over with the rejection. If we do find support at current levels, watch for a bull wedge or other bull consolidation pattern to form under 4389. If we retrace further, 4245 should provide support. If we are able to break out from 4389, 4440 is our next target, but this is not likely for today.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Finds Support at $100Litecoin has made an attempt at recovering from the selloff to the low $90's. It reached as high as $114, where a red triangle on the KRI indicated storng resistance. It has currently retreated to support at $101 or so, which we have added as a new technical level. This seems to be holding, but if there is a further selloff, there is a vacuum zone down to 94, then 92. These should be considered floor prices for now. The $100's are likely to hold as LTC finds footing.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Retraces, $2800's Still a BarrierEthereum made a run for highs. At the same time Bitcoin was testing $40K, ETH was testing $2852. Several red red triangles on the KRI confirmed resistance as we attempted to break higher, and proved that $2852 was a max upper bound. We have since retraced back to $2556, deeper in the $2K handle. The Kovach OBV is flat, suggesting current levels should hold unless we get another burst of momentum. If current levels do not hold, then there is a vacuum zone down to $2454, with lows at $2324 a likely floor. If we see some bull momentum, then $2852 is the level to break before we can consider $3K again.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Retraces from $40KBitcoin rallied from lows from the Ukrainian conflict selloff. Over the weekend, we were able to test $40K, but several red triangles suggested resistance here, and we promptly retrace deeper into the $30K handle yesterday. We are seeing support at $36.7K from a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is not convinced of a rally however, as it is completely flat. If momentum picks up, we should expect resistance at $40K again. Current levels appear to be holding but if $36.7K breaks, there is a vacuum zone to lows at $34.9K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have picked up, but the markets have quite a bit to digest. The Ukrainian president is meeting with Russia to discuss terms, which may give the markets some hope to the resolution. However, sanctions are slamming Russian banks and the world is fearing oil supply issues. That being said, we appear to be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4364. The Kovach OBV has picked up tremendously from where it was when stocks were at lows this week. This suggest a bit of a bull divergence, and a potential breakout could take us to 4440. If we retrace further, we could test lows again at 4122 but 4245 is likely to provide support first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
The US Dollar Retraces from HighsThe US dollar made an aggressive run, rallying from the low 96's where it was struggling to hold 96.00, to the mid 97 handle. We topped off at 97.62, at the height of market panic over the Russia/Ukraine conflict, but have since retraced a bit back to lower levels in the 97's. We briefly dipped back down into the 96 handle, with support holding just above 96.65. The DXY has since recovered the 97's, currently feeling out the range between 97.03, and 97.32. Recently, the 97's seem too top heavy for the DXY, and if so, we can expect a retracement back to support from a cluster of levels between 96.44 and 96.65.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
8
Oil Retraces to Support in the $90'sOil topped out at just over $100 at the height of market panic over the Ukraine, but since it has retraced back to its comfort zone, finding support at $92.03. We are seeing strong support here from green triangles on the KRI, and a nice value area forming between $92.03 and $95.24 exactly, a previous high and former profit target. The Kovach OBV has crimped downward, suggesting the aggressive momentum has let up for now. We should see further ranging in the current value area but if not, $90.06 should hold. If we are able to break out, then $96.88 is tne next target, then there is a vacuum zone back to $100.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Gold Retraces to the low $1900'sGold rallied tremendously off the Ukraine conflict, hitting yearly highs at the top of the $1900 handle. It looked like we might make a run for $2K, but we topped out at 1977 or so, before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. After that, we retraced the entire move, spanning $100, where we finally found support at $1876. We were able to find support here, and have since recovered to $1917, where we are currently finding support between $1905 and $1917. It could go either way from here, but after such intense volatility, it is reasonable for the markets to try to find footing and establish value at current levels, between $1905 and $1917. If we retrace further, $1876 is likely to provide support. If we break out again, it is doubtful we will reclaim $1977, but $1925 or $1936 are reasonable targets.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Recovers $100Litecoin fell to support with a low at $92 or so, before rebounding back to the $100's. We are currently testing $105, the first level in the $100 handle from below. The next level is $114, and if we are able to break through resistance here, we should be able to make a run for this level, as this price range was a previous value area. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but seems unconvinved of true bull momentum. If we range today, then current prices in the low $100's should hold. If we sell off then we may test $94 or $92 again, but these levels should be considered a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Recovers LossesEthereum sold off massively during the height of the market reaction to Russia's invasion. We tested lower levels in the $2K's before rebounding and retracing all of our losses, back to the mid $2K's, at $2651. We do appear to be feeling out a value area between $2556 and $2762. It does look like we may be forming an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at $2762. If that is the case, we may anticipate a rally back to $2852 or even an attempt for the $3K's again. If not, we could potentially test lows at $2324, but will likely see support before that at $2556, or $2454.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
5
Bitcoin Volatile as Investors Digest RussiaBitcoin tested lows as the market panic sold with the Russia/Ukraine conflict. But things leveled out quickly, and it subsequently recovered all of its losses. We are currently safely back to the $38K's, hovering just above support at $38.2K. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but not enough to give us confidence in any real bull momentum. The value area between $38K and $40K seems reasonable for BTC for now, but if we are able to break $40K, then we should face resistance from two levels in the $41K's. If we retrace further, then we should have support from lows at $34.9K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Stocks Swing After Markets Weigh Russian SanctionsStocks had a wild ride yesterday. We sold off to 4122, where we found support and retraced the entire move back to 4293, over a hundred points, before retracing a bit to the mid 4200's. This degree of volatility in the stock market makes it difficult to foresee what today or next week has in store, but we may be starting to form a massive inverse head and shoulders with a neckline in the mid 4200's. The Kovach OBV has picked up from lows suggesting there is real buying happening as stocks bottomed out. If this is the case, then we can expect the S&P 500 to make a run for 4364 again, then 4440. If not, we could retrace the entire move back to 4122, but this seems less likely.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Litecoin Sells Off After Ukrainian InvasionLitecoin has sold off with the rest of the crypto market on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. We appeared to be making an attempt to break through to higher levels with the $100's holding and an apparent concerted effort to test $114 again. However, the news was devastating for LTC, which regrettably retraced all of this move and then some, giving up the $100 handle entirely. But we did see support from our level at $94, a level we have been mentioning for the past week or so, as a candidate for support if $100 didn't hold. We will have further support from 92, which we appear to be testing now. If this does not hold then the next target below is $85.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Sells Off After Russian Forces Invade UkraineEthereum has crashed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We have smashed through the low at $2556, a relative low that we thought may be constituting an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and therefore a possible attempt at higher levels. However, a global market selloff broke this low and headed deeper into the $2k handle. We are currently finding support at $2324, but are not really seeing much of a pivot or attempt at higher levels. If we are able to smash through $2324, then $2232 is next target. If we are able to see a pivot off current levels, then $2454 is the first level that will likely provide resistance.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Tumbles Off the Russian Invasion of UkraineBitcoin has plummeted after the Russian invasion on the Ukraine. We were personally hoping that Bitcoin would become another safehaven asset, but with institutional holdings on balance sheets, it is moving with stocks at this point. We sold off drastically from what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming at around $39K, smashing through several major levels in the $30K's. However we are currently finding support at $34.9K and $34.0K. If we tumble further then $32.3K is the next target. If we are able to recover a bit, then $36.7K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
What the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Means for StocksStocks have plummeted after Russia attacked Ukraine. We were seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming with a low of about 4272, but strong bear momentum smashed through this level and headed down further into the 4100 handle. Currently, we are finding support at 4122, where a green triangle on the KRI is providing support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009, the very last level in the 4000 handle. It is likely stocks will try to jostle for footing, so expect some volatility today. We could retest 4272 again, but that is most likely the ceiling for today.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy