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Kovach

Litecoin Pivoting??Litecoin got strong support from $100, pivoting off this level as it retraced past our level of support at $105. With the pivot, we were able to clear $105 again, and appeared to be in the vicinity of $114, but momentum seems to be petering out and we are meandering in the middle of the vacuum zone between $105 and $114. If we can recover further and break $114 then $120 is the next target, then $124. If we retrace further, then $105 and $100 should provide support, but if not, $94 is the first level of support in the double digits.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders In Ethereum??Ethereum pressed lower, but found support at $2556, a level we have called out here. We have subsequently seen a nice pivot back to relative highs at $2762, which may be the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern (in the making). The Kovach OBV has lifted slightly, nothing to support bullishness yet, but it could suggest that we have bottomed out in this bear rout. If we are able to break higher, then $2852 and $2965 are the next targets. If we retrace again, $2556 should provide support, then $2454.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Bitcoin Ready to Breakout??Bitcoin has made another run for lows in the mid $30K's. We found good support at $36.7K, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still bearish, but does appear to be leveling off. We are seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern in Bitcoin with a "neckline" around $38.9K. If this is the case then a breakout could easily take us back to the $40K's, but we might need some fundamental driver like the situation with Russia to improve. If we are able to break out, the first target is $40.0K. If we reject current levels then $36.7K should hold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have been struggling to find footing in the wake of Russia tensions. As we mentioned before, stocks found support at 4272. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support here. We are currently attempting a bit of a pivot from here, with 4364 providing resistance for now. We are seeing a (rather messy) inverse head and shoulders type pattern here with a "neckline" at 4364. If we are able to break out from this, we will surely see resistance at 4440, then 4580. The Kovach OBV still is not convinced of any bullishness at this point, and is remaining at lows for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds $100Litecoin plummeted as the markets digest the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We have retraced fully, back to lows after finding support at $105. Support failed but $100 held and we are currently testing $105 again but from below this time. If the $100's do not hold then there is a vacuum zone to $94. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish and we don't see much evidence to support a bullish outlook any time soon. However, current prices seem to be a discount, and we feel it might be time to start accumulating a long term position, with the understanding that we may press a bit lower.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Sells Off with Russia TensionsBitcoin has sold off with stocks as the markets react to the Ukraine/Russia conflict. We were skeptical of the bull rally anyway, as we have mentioned here many times. Bitcoin have solidly given up the $40K handle, and are well into the $30K's at this point. The level $38.2K appeared to provide good support, but another wave of selling took us back further to $36.7K. This appears to be a bottom for now, but there is a vacuum zone to $34.9K. If we catch some bull momentum, $40K is the level to break to see higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
4
Stocks Selloff with Russia TensionsStocks turned sharply lower as the Russia/Ukraine crisis has escalated. Putin has sent troops to separatist regions in the Ukraine and the UK and EU have suggested to respond with sanctions. We have retraced the range fully, testing 4272 once more. Recall that this level has been in our reports all this month, so you should have been prepared. We are seeing support here at 4272, and appear to be attempting a pivot from this level. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish, suggesting that we may be seeing some headwinds. Our next target is 4364, then 4440. We should continue to have support from 4272 in the event of another selloff, but if that breaks, then 4245 is the next level where we can expect support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Safehaven Inflows Benefit GoldGold has steadily rallied benefitting from safehaven inflows from the Ukraine crisis. We appeared to see some trouble with 1895, the last level of the 1800's, but another burst of momentum took us into the 1900 handle. From there, we were even able to make an attempt at higher levels still, but our level at 1917 proved to be a top for now. After that, we retraced back, and are currently meandering around 1900. We are seeing good support from 1895, but watch the vacuum zone below to 1876. If we rally again, 1917 is the level to break before we can achieve higher levels.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
The DXY Attempts to Reclaim the 96'sThe US dollar is meandering in the high 95's. After rejecting the 96 handle, we promptly saw support at 95.82, with a few attempts to break it immediately finding support just above 95.58, the next level down. Several green triangles on the KRI have confirmed support above this level. However, any attempt to break through to the 96's again is being met with resistance, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We will have resistance at 96.24 if we are able to break into the 96's again. If so, then 96.44 is a likely ceiling for now.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Oil Dips Sharply, Will it Find Support??Oil has retraced sharply from highs. After rejecting 95.24, we smashed through the 90 handle entirely, testing 88.77, where we appeared to find support as confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. However, another selloff took us past this level to the next level of support at 87.21. We do appear to be finding support at this level at present, but if not, the next level down is 85.55. This still seems to be a reasonable technical retracement in the overall bull trend, but the Kovach OBV has started to tick downward with the selloff. If we can find support at current levels, then the 90's should provide resistance. But after 92.03 there is a vacuum zone back to 95.24, so momentum could have us return to this relative high quickly.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Gold Hits Our Target!!Gold has hit our next target of 1905, after smashing through 1895. We saw resistance from 1905, as anticipated, and subsequently retraced slightly. We are currently seeing support just under our previous target of 1895. If we retrace further, we should see support at 1876, then 1865. After such a strong rally in gold, it is reasonable to anticipated a technical retracement. The Kovach OBV is still quite strong, but has started to level off a bit, suggesting we may anticipate a retracement or at least a sideways correction as gold feels out the current value area.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Bonds Attempt to Establish Value Near LowsBonds have picked up from lows, retracing the vacuum zone back to resistance at 126'19, exactly as we had predicted yesterday. The Kovach OBV picked up very slightly, but nowhere near enough to suggest any serious buying momentum. We are seeing resistance from these levels, as anticipated, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. It seems likely that ZN may retrace the range again, and find support at 125'17, but if we continue to test higher levels, then 126'18 and 127'01 are the next targets.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Dives, Finds SupportLitecoin has sold off with the rest of the crypto market. We smashed through support at $120, and tested $114, which appears to be holding strong as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. We made a concerted effort to pivot, which was promptly batted down at $120 again, confirmed by a large wick on the candle and a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has dropped off notably, but it does appear to be leveling off. If $114 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to $105. If we are able to break $120 again, we are sure to meet resistance at $124.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Gives Up $3K Again!! 😱📉Ethereum tested our level at $3200, making a concerted attempt to break out to test the head of our head and shoulders pattern at $3324. However, this provided prohibitive resistance, and we subsequently sold off. We predicted this would happen yesterday, as $3200 appeared to form a double top. We sold off all the way back to $2965, then $2852, exactly as we had predicted. We are currently in the previous value area between the aforementioned levels. The Kovach OBV has dumped and we have given up the $3K handle, which are not strong signs for bulls. However, if we see a burst of momentum, then $3042 is the next target if we can break $2965 again. However, based on the current price action, $2965 seems like a ceiling for now. If we selloff and break $2852, then $2762 should provide further support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin to $30K's Again??Bitcoin has retraced back to support at $40K. We had been calling for this retracement after weak momentum met resistance, and the price action meandered just below $45K. Several red triangles on the KRI confirmed that $45K was too top heavy for Bitcoin, and we promptly retraced to support in the $41K's. After that did not hold, we identified the next levels of support around $40K, where we are currently seeking to establish value. The Kovach OBV has dropped off substantially, but $40K is a strong psychological and technical level. If it holds, we could make a run back through $41K back to the value area just above the $43K's. If selling continues, then $38.2K is a particularly auspicious level and is likely to provide strong support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
1
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Testing SupportLitecoin has retraced to support after testing $130. We have retraced from there to support at $124, which we anticipated yesterday. The price action appears to be weakening further, and if so, we can anticipate further support at $120. Unless there is a drastic spike of momentum either way, we anticipate the sideways correction between $120 and $134 to hold. If not, we will see further support from $114. The next targets are $134 and $141, and we must clear $141 in particular to confirm a bull rally and consider higher levels again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Double Top in Ethereum!!Ethereum has made an attempt at higher levels but $3200 has provided prohibitive resistance, as we anticipated. We are seeing a double top at this level with two red triangles on the KRI to confirm the resistance. Currently, we are finding support at the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern at $3042, which we also predicted yesterday. If support breaks, we will surely test the $2K handle again, with $2965 the first level of support below. If that does not hold then $2852 should provide strong support, and we will have returned to the previous value area between $2852 and $2965. We must clear the 'head' of the head and shoulders pattern at $3324 before we can be confident of a bull rally.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Rejects $45KBitcoin has pressed higher, though hopes for a bull rally were quickly thwarted as we met resistance just below $45K. Several red triangles on the KRI indicated resistance, and the price action was rounding off. Support at $43.8K broke, and the next level below, $43.1K is hanging on by a thread. If we break down further, we should have support from two strong levels in the $41K's, then $40K. The target from above to break is $45K, and we aren't convinced of any bull rally until this happens. After that, the next target is $47.4K, where we will be in a better position to consider $50K again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
2
Oil Attempts to Reclaim the $90'sOil has dipped sharply, as we anticipated yesterday. We have tested 95.24 several times, but red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance at every attempt. Subsequently, a strong selloff took oil prices back to support at 88.74, the exact level we called out in our reports yesterday. Also, as we anticipated, we are seeing support here, with an attempt to regain the 90's. We are currently finding support just below our level at 90.06. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting that we may be in a sideways corrective pattern between 88.74 and 95.21. If so, we anticipate prices to pick up and solidify the 90's again. If not, we will have further support from 87.21 and 85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy