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Kovach

Ethereum Stalls After RallyEthereum has made a run for higher levels, breaking past the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern at $3042. We are currently meeting resistance at $3200, with a red triangle on the KRI signifying resistance at this level exactly. The Kovach OBV has turned up sharply with the rally, but appears to be leveling off as we have met resistance. If we see another burst of momentum, we must clear the 'head' of the head and shoulders pattern at $3324, before we can have confidence in a bull rally. If we fail to see momentum come through we will likely retrace to $3042 or $2965, where we are likely to support. Recall that the previous value area was the narrow range between $2852 to $2965, so if current levels cannot sustain, then we may return to this range.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Meets ResistanceBitcoin has made an attempt at a rally, but several red triangles on the KRI have suggested resistance. We seem to have topped out just below our level at $45K for now. The Kovach OBV has quickly leveled off as we encounter resistance. It appears we are in a broad sideways corrective pattern after a large rally took us back to the $40K's again from the high $30K's. If we retrace further, we should see support at $41.9K and $41.6K. If we catch another burst of momentum, we will surely encounter resistance at $45K, then $45.6K, then $46.2K. If we are able to clear these levels the next target is $47.4K, but based on the price action and momentum, this is not likely for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Oil Retraces from HighsOil has retraced sharply from highs at 95.24. A red triangle on the KRI has confirmed prohibitive resistance and we have sharply retraced, initially finding support at the next level below at 92.03. From here, we made a run for the next level below at 90.06, but have found support just above it. We have currently made an attempt to break past 92.03 again, but momentum appears to be waning. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but we could be encountering overbought conditions. If so, anticipate a sideways correction around current levels, or a retracement down to 90.06 or 88.74. If momentum picks up, we will need to break 95.24 before we can achieve the next target of 96.88.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
All Eyes on Russia Tensions as Stocks Edge HigherStocks have risen a bit off alleviated Ukraine/Russia tensions. Troops have apparently pulled back, though several Ukrainian government institutions have been hacked, which adds some ambiguity to the overall picture. We appear to have an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming off recent lows, as we penetrated the value area between 4440 and 4272. We have made an attempt to break through to higher levels but 4462 is currently providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Watch momentum at the North American open. If we are able to see another burst of momentum, we could make a run for highs in the value area above, where 4580 is likely to provide resistance and prove to be a ceiling for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but does appear to be weakening as we meet resistance.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Ethereum Regains $3K!!Ethereum has regained the $3K handle after breaking down from our head and shoulders pattern, testing $2852. We saw strong support here from several green triangles on the KRI, and support held strong until another wave of momentum took us back to the $3K's, past the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern at $3042. Currently, we are just above this level, meeting resistance just below the next target of $3148. We are seeing several red triangles on the KRI throughout this rally, suggesting that momentum may be weakening. If so, anticipate support at $2965 or $2852 again. If not, then $3324 is the next top, a relative high and the "head" of our head and shoulders pattern.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Extends the Sideways CorrectionBitcoin has found support in the $41K handle, and made another attempt for relative highs. We were able to inch above $43.8K, but are meeting resistance just below $45K. Several red triangles on the KRI suggest that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain these higher levels, and thus this rally may just be a leg of a broader sideways correction. If so, we anticipate further resistance from $45.0K and $45.6K. If we are able to break $46.2K, then $47.4K is the next target. However if we retrace and continue the sideways correction, we should see support again from the $41K's, and after from $40K. It appears that the markets still see the $30K's as undervalued for BTC but if we retrace further, $38.2K should be a strong level of support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Oil Hits Our Next Profit Target!!Oil has reached our target of 95.24, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance, followed by a retracement. We are seeing good support at 92.03, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bullish, with the brief retracement failing to budge it. Thus we have no indication of a reversal any time soon, and are still bullish of oil. It does appear to be looking top heavy, so we can expect a retracement soon, with 90.06 the first candidate for support below. Our next target is 96.88, when momentum resumes.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Tensions Easing? Stocks Get a LiftStocks have gotten support from 4364, roughly the midpoint of the range they were holding between 4272 and 4440. We have since broken through that high and attempted 4462, the next level above, where we are currently meeting resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Perhaps this rally follows news that some Russian troops have returned to base, and the Ukranian tensions may be easing a bit. The Kovach OBV has picked up ever so slightly, but if we cannot break through to higher levels, we should see the bear rout return, and test 4440 again, or break lower into the previous value area once more. We still anticipate 4272 as a floor for now. The next major target is 4580 if bull momentum returns.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Retraces to the $120'sLitecoin has broken down from the $140's, which appeared to be too top heavy for the beleagured coin at this time. We smashed through the $130's, which did little to provide a buffer to the $120's where we are currently seeing support. The Kovach OBV has dropped off sharply, leveling off as the price action meanders at current levels. If we selloff further, then $114 is the next level. If we see a bounce here, then $130 is the next target, then $134. We must break these two levels definitively to return to 'bull mode'.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Russia Tensions Hit StocksStocks have tanked off Ukraine/Russia tensions. We were holding the value area between 4462 and 4580 last week, but have smashed through the lower bound of this range and have reentered the value area between 4272 and 4440. The Kovach OBV has dropped significantly, but appears to be leveling off as the S&P 500 clamors to find support. A green triangle on the KRI signifies some support around 4364 or so. If we continue the rout, then 4272 should be the lower bound. If we pick up momentum, then 4440 and 4462 are the targets to watch.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
DXY Finds Support Off Inflation Data, FedThe US dollar has been bought up from relative lows at 95.26. The firmness in the dollar stems from inflation data yesterday and increased expectations of a Fed hike. We did see some volatility in the DXY, but support has held strong, and we appear to be making a run for the 96's again. However, 96.00 has provided prohibitive resistance for the moment, with two rejections and a red triangle on the KRI to confirm resistance. If we are able to break this level, then 96.24 and 96.44 are the next levels. Otherwise, we should see continued support from 95.26.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Sideways Correction in Oil, with Bull BiasOil has retraced from the 90's to 88.74, as we anticipated in our reports. We are extending the sideways correction that started forming after we rejected relative highs in the 92's, currently inching up above 90.00, just barely. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has started to level off as oil ranges. There isn't much data to support a further correction, especially after the IEA has stated that the market is 'tight' but if we selloff further, we should see support at 85.55. If we see more momentum for a bull run, then 92.03 must be broken once more before we can consider another new relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy